Get started

DJI

You against inflationMoney printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing. With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation. There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation". If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome: This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed. To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by @SPY_Master DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD. We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own. For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail... These fib-retracements are very beautiful... SPX: NDQ: They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us. After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
50 EMA @ 33990If you read this you will learn more about the rocket booster strategy. Am from eating my small healthy sandwich breakfast. As am thinking about what to write to you. -- I check my trading system-inside this system the DJI TVC:DJI Has signaled a buy. -- Here is what the Rocket Booster System Looks Like: Price has to be above the 50 EMA Price has to be above the 200 EMA Price has to be in an up-trend -- Trading can be an emotional game, but if you remember this strategy and stick to it you will defend yourself. -- If you would like to learn more please rocket boost this content. -- Disclaimer:Do not buy or sell anything i reccomend to you.Do your own research before you trade.The purpose of this content is for education.
TVC:DJILong
by lubosi
DXY May Signal Next Crash Across Stock and Crypto MarketsWithin the four panels above are comparisons of major US market and the international Bitcoin indices with the US Dollar Index, $TVC:DXY. From top left to right: TVC:DJI SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX BNC:BLX As we can plainly see, each one acts a a near mirror image going back to 2017. When looking at correlation via an indicator, like Correlation Coefficient, we would see regular swings from negative to positive on various timeframes and settings. Yet, when viewing both indices over the years as shown above, there are several observations: it becomes clear that there is a macro negative correlation between the dollar index and these major stock and crypto indices. There is also a consistent tendency for both to correct and eventually meet near the middle and/or see a crossover to the other side. Strong opposing reactions occur between these valleys of one meet or cross with peaks of the other (meeting in the middle or crossing), and when peaks of one drift furthest apart from valleys of the other. DXY often reaches local highs or lows prior to these market indices reaching lows or highs, or vice versa. One can act to forward indicate the direction of the other. It's certainly possible that any of these markets could instead signal DXY's next move, or even move together at the same time with it (both of which have occurred before and even in cases on the chart above). However, there has been a pattern since 2017 of DXY making local highs or lows prior to the indices above making their local lows or highs, at least when leading up to major spikes in DXY and crashes in markets, bringing them nearer to the middle. Should DXY move up and back above 105-106 and then 112, and continue, it may signal the end of these recoveries we've been seeing over the last year, and could point to crashes across markets. My present theory is that we may see something like double-tops with slightly higher or slightly lower highs, across many of these markets, and as DXY ranges between 101-106. This, leading to a breakout of that range and a move back above 112. Should DXY turn down hard instead, we may see extended recoveries and new ATHs until it bounces again off monthly support and heads back up. Many of the stock indices shown above are already near double-tops with potentially a bit more room to run up. Bitcoin hasn't yet caught up and has a lower weekly RSI, so it may be the last one to make a strong recovery before we see a downturn. *** related ideas linked in the related ideas section **** Thank you for reading! -dudebruh :)
TVC:DJI
by dudebruhwhoa
Arbitrary LinesBabylon, the city where everybody spoke different languages. In the end, Babylon met grave consequences. (Macro perspective of the main chart) Citizens of Babylon, in our case traders, can barely communicate. They all speak in different timeframes, and with contradicting interests. Which translator in their right mind can untangle spaghetti? Many different lengths of regression. How can any translator give a geographic position of anything? Even if I try to make an argument... ... I am plotting arbitrary lines. (bearish trendlines) A line is nothing but weak. It can easily "disprove" what I have "proved". (bullish trendline) If we are to leap ahead, we must throw away all of which we are sure to be correct. Surely there is something we can agree upon, right? For I was conscious that I knew practically nothing... -Plato It seems that everything is based around the chaos theory. The flight of a butterfly can affect tornadoes. Traders (like me) fall in the trap of making chaos into facts and arguments, and conclude into definitive answers. Clean and ordered answers taken out of chaos. Ordo Ab Chao Is anything/everything that we do a desperate attempt to revert entropy/chaos? Like an insane ritual? Maybe we know nothing. Maybe making arguments and conclusions is meaningless. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3
US30 forecast, shortThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones or the Dow for short tracks the performance of 30 of the biggest companies in the US including Boeing, Intel, and Dow. It’s often used as a barometer for the overall performance of the country’s equity markets. Historically it’s one of oldest and most followed indices. The chart is a useful measure of US economic health. Follow the Dow Jones live with the real-time chart and view the latest Dow forecasts, news and analysis. Key pivot points and support and resistance will help you trade the Dow Jones today and into the future
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by GrandeMaster
DOW JONES: The top is close. Pullback expected.Dow Jones is unfolding the second rally sequence of the 1 year Channel Up and has reached today the 0.786 Fibonacci level of July's High. The 1D technical outlook is about to turn overbought (RSI = 68.650, MACD = 236.580, ADX = 32.415) and as the rally approaches the R1 level (35,100) as well as being almost on the +9.05% range from the bottom, we are looking towards a late April peak formation and pullback. The pullback is expected to be at a -2.75% minimum, like June 23rd that reached the 1D MA50. Sell, TP = 34,300. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
This Statement is FalseCharting is amazing. The excitement it gives me is far greater than the satisfaction a good trade could ever give me. It is easy for me to state this fact since I don't trade. I consider the stock market as a super-long-term strategy. A strategy that lasts for generations, not a career. After all, the most wealthy have ancestors heavily invested in the stock market decades ago. Charting can be prone to showing ghosts when there are none. We tend to believe a crisis is coming, when in fact it is ending. No wonder the yield curve is super important. With specific adjustments to rates, the FED manages to accelerate and decelerate the economy. I recently found out about the following chart: SPX-equal-weight vs SPX-market-cap This chart represents "democracy" in wealth distribution between the 500 members of SPX. The higher the chart, the more spread out the wealth distribution. Now we are apparently reaching what appears to be a significant floor. There is a lot of ground to cover regarding this chart above. First things first, there appears to be a significant correlation between yield rates and wealth spread. There also appears to be a lag on this chart. First there is a wealth distribution change, and then the yield rates change appropriately. The charts above state that high yield rates go hand-in-hand with higher wealth distribution. At first this may seem counter-intuitive. How on earth do high yield rates help the markets? We all know that equities suffered last year because of the rapid rate hike. It is simple, really. High yield rates encourage banks to lend money. High yield rates help spread money from the few to the many. As a historical analogue we could compare the SPX/DJI chart. This chart is false. The many vs the few is not what you think it is. There is one caveat with this chart. SPX is a market-cap index while DJI is a stock-price index. With that in mind we should consider the following: -- The SPX/DJI chart is not 100% comparable. It may even represent the "average cost" of a stock. Since Market-Cap (money) is divided by Stock-Price (stock). -- In hindsight, we realize that the Great Depression happened in a period of ample and cheaper stocks, with market cap diminishing. It might have been the absolute definition of a bubble. Buyers bought progressively more and more stocks that came into existence out of thin air. Does this story ring any bells? Has anyone heard about derivatives? The RSP/IVV chart we talked before had an excellent behavior and correlation to yield rates. All was well, until now. Now we have an issue... The RSP/IVV ratio, which appears to lead yield rates is rapidly dropping. With that in mind, the FED should have lower yield rates into what the market prices them. Right now, the FED attempts killing the market. A conclusion is hard to make. Both the SPX/DJI charts, and the RSP/IVV-yield-rate chart suggest that yield rates are significantly overextended upwards. Have we leaped too fast too quick? Has the FED overreacted? Does wealth distribution suggest lower rates in the months to come? Has the market settled with a low-rate hyper-inflationary future? Will the RSP/IVV floor give-in? Is a roaring '20s-like bubble brewing? Just like our "friend" Musk called... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
The Emperor's New ClothesYou don't need to believe in fairytales to realize that there are kings, queens and peasants. As if not a single day has passed since the Medieval times. Poor get poorer, and rich get richer. As the folklore said, the emperor decided that he needs new clothes. And so he demanded from the entire kingdom that he finds the finest. Two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent. Source: Wikipedia And here we are. Looking at the magnificent clothes of the naked emperor. The emperor however is still an emperor, no matter what he wears. And he gets to enjoy the fruit of his peasants' labor. Post 2020 profits for the naked few. Until today, we are too smart not to see the clothes of the emperor. No sane person can possibly call themselves incompetent. The ghost of the emperor lives on... ...until one child realizes, that there are no clothes in the first place. We have reached the very last days of the emperor's dignity. Trend change begins when only one changes direction. Others soon follow. Volatility increases after a tiny "butterfly-event" causes one member to destabilize. SPX Stability: Then volatility swallows everyone. Parasites have riddled the economy. There is only a limited amount of time for parasites to feast. The time will come, when there will be no food left. It is at that time when the real "fun" begins... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
2
DOW JONES Consolidation leading to a Christmas rally?Dow Jones / US30 spent all week above the 1day MA50, in fact Friday's rebound took place exactly on it (Support A at 33850). This is potentially an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and with the 1day RSI at 60.00 and over its MA, it draws comparisons with the June 15th pattern, which peaked at +6.08%. That pattern has same measurements as the current Inverse Head and Shoulders and formed the Right Shoulder in 3 weeks, supported by the 1day MA50. After that another +6.15% leg brought the price to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Similarly, the current Inverse Head and Shoulders may target the 1.786 Fibonacci, which in this case will be a little under the 35700 Resistance B high. Buy and target 35500 (a little under Fibonacci 1.786). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon
DOW JONES Strong rebound on the 1D MA50!Dow Jones (DJI) is having an excellent rebound ever since our October 31 buy signal (see chart below), which we issued after the index bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 12-month Channel Up: The price broke today even above the 3-month Bearish Megaphone, which was the pattern that executed the Channel Up correction. Today's rebound is being done after the index hit and held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is in fact on top of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). If it continues, we may see this 1D Death Cross (a technically bearish pattern) getting invalidated. However, we do lower our medium-term target from 35000 to 34800 as this rebound is coming off a -1.15% pull-back, which resembles those of June 06 and April 04, that topped on the next rise and then pulled-back to the 1D MA50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
3
Are we about to see a new era of expansion for the tech sector?This is the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (NDX/DJI) on the 1W time-frame (with the RSI on the 1M), which offers very interesting conclusions as to where we are on the large scale of things, which can be particularly helpful now as the shorting bets have been increased to the most in 5 years. The recent pull-back since the July Highs, have made market critics call for a stronger correction. for the NDX/DJI pair, this has just been a consolidation. Going back to 2000, the tech sector witnessed a 'biblical' Bear Cycle as the Dotcom Bubble popped. It wasn't until November 2021 that the NDX/DJI ratio reached this 0.47 All Time High (ATH) Resistance but again as we saw, the inflation crisis happened and had a 1 year Bear Cycle. Now the ratio is almost back to the ATH Resistance and just formed a 1W Golden Cross, which is a very bullish pattern, the first since October 2007. What's really interesting is that this consolidation on a 1W Golden Cross is quite similar to the July 1991 pattern. That fractal was basically the expansion phase that led to the Dotcom Bubble burst. The 1M RSI sequences are similar between the two fractals. This chart shows us that such expansions take place inside Channel Up patterns. The 1W Golden Cross and a potential break above the 0.47 Resistance, may be the signal telling us that the technology market is starting a new era of expansion and it won't be surprising even fundamentally. Among other technological advancements and inventions, we are in the era of A.I. and that can be the vehicle to grow the market to unprecedented highs just like the internet was in the 1990s fractal that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble. Do you think the time to invest in tech long-term is now? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
2
DOW JONES: Final pump before correction.Dow Jones turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.241, MACD = -34.600, ADX = 33.114) after more than three weeks as it smashed past our target and even crossed over the R1 level (34,150). The inevitable formation of a Golden Cross on the 4H timeframe, indicates that this sequence has one more High left to give on the LH and HH trendlines cross. The 4H MACD Bearish Cross is very much like October 12th, both took off on a Double Bottom Bullish Cross. This is our last short term buy (TP = 34,500). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
3
Dow Jones vs. DXY Q1 of 2024 Crash ScenarioCrude chart depicting what a crash in the Q1 of 2024 may look like as it relates to TVC:DXY Similar scenarios could occur across multiple markets including the BNC:BLX and OANDA:XAUUSD Depicted here showing TVC:DJI making a double top with a slightly higher ATH as the US Dollar Index re-tests monthly support and the top of a falling wedge before rocketing up above its recent highs and heading towards its 1985 ATH. Below are a few more detailed looks at TVC:DXY - its falling wedge, an older weekly chart talking about this, and finally zooming way out to see its potential for revisiting the '85 ATH, or higher: Dollar Index Falling Wedge Breakout Original Post - Market Recoveries be Wary of DXY Potential for Revisiting ATH and/or breaking it Also, a couple of examples of how it correlates with the Bitcoin BNC:BLX & Crypto Market, plus a crude example similar to the one in this post showing Gold Spot Market OANDA:XAUUSD Macro Negative Correlation with Bitcoin Crude Example - Gold Spot Market
TVC:DXY
by dudebruhwhoa
2
DOW JONES Above the 1day MA50 after almost 2 months!Dow Jones / US30 crossed on Friday over the 1day MA50 for the first time since September 15. It hit Resistance A (34150) which was the October 17th High and completed so far 5 green days in a row almost at the top of the Bearish Megaphone. The long term pattern is a Channel Up, so there is still considerable upside left. The 1day RSI also crossed over its Falling Resistance much like the March 29th fractal, which after a short consolidation on Resistance A, it hit Fibonacci 0.786. Buy if the price crosses over the Bearish Megaphone and target 34950 (0.786 Fibonacci). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon
Combined US Indexes Bounced UP!Heads up that there is a significant development in the market structure, as observed by the last two weeks of activity. Previous week, the weekly candle broke down two support lines, and closed well below. In addition, there was support from the TD Sequential counts for a downward momentum. This was also corroborated by the MACD and the VolDiv. However, despite the technical indications, the market movement was totally opposite that started with a gap up, and ended with strong upside momentum. There are two very clear indications of a trend change: 1. The opposing candlestick is large and closed above the last six close; and 2. The TD Sequential reversed and started the opposing Setup. Taken together, this are the first indications of a real trend change. Next, this would need to follow through, and break above the trendline, and then the marked resistance.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
DOW JONES: Started rising, at least on the short term.Dow Jones went from oversold to neutral on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.457, MACD = -63.520, ADX = 28.038) as the price bottomed on the LL trendline of the three month Channel Down and rebounded straight to the 4H MA50 today. This is the short term Resistance, a closing above it confirms the 2nd part of the rally to the 4H MA200. The 4H MACD is on the same Double Bullish Cross bottom formation as October 4th. The rally that followed rose by +4.05%. Consequently our bullish target (TP = 33,500) is under a max +4.05% range, as well as the 4H MA200 and the dashed LH trendline. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Time to buy the dip again.Dow Jones / US30 reached our desired buy level based on our last idea (chart at the bottom), which is exactly at the bottom of the 11 month Channel Up. It kept the 1week MA200 intact once again (has been since October 2022), so that maintains the long term trend bullish. The shorter pattern is a Bearish Megaphone and as mentioned previously, our target is for the time being and until a break out takes place, inside this pattern. Target 33600, which is under the 1week MA50, under which all of October's candles have closed. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon