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Divergences

USD Dollar Index and Canadian Dollar Technical AnalysisDXY and USDCAD seem very bearish It's as if the DXY already completed the pattern we are currently seeing on USDCAD! The H1 Gap allowed me to enter a sell at the 1.29924 price point and as of right now 70% of my position has been secured. On WEDNESDAY June 13 we have a Supercharged New Moon and the Federal Funds Rate FOMC meetings (Forex Factory economic calendar has "hike" to 2.00% expected posted & also investing involves risk... especially when trading with leverage on a margin style account. Thank you for following this analysis) Limit Order up at 1.301xx Thank You! P.S. Further Fundamental analysis is being considered such as what's going on w/ G7 on Twitter, the mainstream media, human emotion for all of the sellers who set their stop loss at break even / slightly above their entry that did get stopped out over the weekend of June 8 ~ 11
by ZacharyHogan
XVGBTC Verge signals weakness and may return into down trendHi all, Previously, I posted a bullish analysis on XVG where a regular bullish divergence could be seen on the 4hr and 1hr chart. Along with the descending wedge, I assumed a reversal would be possible, and reaching newer highs. I went long on the breakout, but soon realized that oscillators did not validate the price action. Although a bullish divergence was seen earlier, another divergence could be seen simultaneously. I am referring here to the hidden bearish divergence that is indicated with blue lines (lower highs on the price, higher highs on the oscillator). This divergence suggests that prices may resume to their original trend, which was a down trend for this situation. Seeing these two divergences in the same time frame make the reversal more doubtful I would say, however I haven't really backtested this yet. Should you know more about this, please do not hesitate to leave your comment if you can confirm this or reject. For me, divergences have put me into the right direction for the serious technical trades I've done so far. I am happy that I learned about this early on, as knowing this tool can save you a ton. For the reliability of these divergences, I can't really say they work all the time, but they are a comforting tool for confirming the price action. I will have to do many more trades to make this a more valid statement, but for now, I will put my trust into them. In conclusion, I think that further retracement and ultimately reaching the horizontal support around 325 is possible. For now, I have closed my long position and will wait what the market will do. There is still a tremendous opportunity for XVG to go up. I hope this was informative, and please let me know your thoughts! Maurits
X
by potadahead
Staying Ahead: Current Conditions & Bitcoin Volume AnalysisAs most of you know, I focus a lot on volume analysis. I believe that volume precedes price and if there is a solid predictive method to do Technical Analysis it is through volume. However keep in mind every indicator lags in some kind of shape & form. The difference with volume analysis is you can analyze the actual supply and demand, this allows you to have an advantage over the market by taking what actually moves price and being one of the first in line to ride the direction. Cryptocurrency trading will be on another competitive level once other analysts figure this out. Divergences are extremely useful with Volume analysis as the errors that do occur with these plays are 99% of the time visible on another time frame. (Which is why confirmation is so imperative) Divergences with the RSI or STOCH for example do not always play as seen due to the fact that volume will ultimately decide the markets direction, not the algos of trading bots and market makers. In the overview below I will break down the analysis based on each indicator across the different time frames one by one. I will not be explaining the functions of each indicator, so please read and study the past publications I have done on TradingView to understand these indicators. Also there is many other signals available from other Volume indicators but I happen to like the consistency of the O.B.V. and the C.M.F. so i will focus on those two. Keep in mind this is a very broad overview of market conditions on high time frames. Daily Overview Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) As seen on the daily above & below we show extremely heavy sell pressure , the few times we have ever seen this heavy of pressure was always under $1,000 per Bitcoin, this is a new market however with new market conditions and psychology. Every time we reached this level or lower, it was the market low, we are currently resting above the low of $6,000 from February. What this tells me is we are NOT at the market low based on that pattern from the past. The $6,000 wick from February 2nd had little sell pressure that ultimately created another rally, at the time the market was still in disbelief and bought it right up, now the market consensus is very apprehensive and cautious. See below for the example. On Balance Volume (O.B.V.) We show a very clear divergence here in favor of a bearish move. Other than the fact that we were at $1,000 last time the O.B.V was this low there is nothing much to note here on the daily. 12 Hour Overview Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) As can be seen below the C.M.F. has a very slight increase from the prior low, it is not substantial enough to trade a long position from this view. The risk reward is much more heavier on the short side considering our trend is Bearish and the price gap is much higher percentage wise, this actually labels this as a bearish divergence . On Balance Volume (O.B.V.) The O.B.V. shows an actual decrease in Volume further backing the divergence label on the C.M.F. 2 Hour Overview Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) Jumping down to the 2 hour, buy pressure has increased showing a potential Bullish move incoming. If you were to trade this you would definitely need confirmation from other indicators in addition to studying the past market moves at this level, and how they interacted with resistance levels..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
93
On Balance Volume (OBV) plus CMF divergencesOn Balance Volume (O.B.V.) 1. Introduction 2. Definition 3. Example 4. Conclusion 1. Introduction The On Balance Volume indicator (O.B.V.) is used in technical analysis to measure buying and selling pressure. It is a cumulative indicator meaning that on days where price went up, that day's volume is added to the cumulative O.B.V. total. If price went down, then that day's volume is subtracted from the O.B.V. total. The O.B.V. value is then plotted as a line for easy interpretation. On Balance Volume is primarily used to confirm or identify overall price trends or to anticipate price movements after divergences. The basic theory behind the On Balance Volume indicator is that volume precedes price. This is important because it allows the O.B.V. to be used for a couple of different purposes. It can be used for general trend identification or confirmation. It can also be used to anticipate price movement after divergences. It is important to keep in mind that the O.B.V. measures volume levels in relation to the price. I highly recommend using the Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) in tandem with the O.B.V since the O.B.V. will not always give you a clear divergence. See: 2. Definition If the closing price is above the prior close price then: Current O.B.V. = Previous O.B.V. + Current Volume If the closing price is below the prior close price then: Current O.B.V. = Previous O.B.V. - Current Volume If the closing prices equals the prior close price then: Current O.B.V. = Previous O.B.V. (no change) Resources quoted: www.tradingview.com(OBV) Now for the important part... 3. Example As seen on the top chart labeled as Divergence #1 (LTC on the daily), the O.B.V rose in tandem with the price action. What does not show is the bearish divergence on the C.M.F. Buy pressure does not always show accurately on the O.B.V. due to the way it calculates the inputs (which is why I recommend using the C.M.F. with it). As price rose, the C.M.F. gave us a very clear bearish divergence that would of allowed you to exit out of a position and flip. As can be seen in Divergence #2 , we re-tested the past resistance with less than convincing volume on the O.B.V. & the C.M.F.. Bulls went at it again 11 days later in the same divergence and ultimately failed due to lack of volume/buy pressure. Once again, this set up a perfect short position. If you were to trade this, you would continue to add to your short during that 13 day period and closely monitor these two indicators for a break into positive buy pressure that would pull it out of its divergence. This rarely happens, but TradingView allows you to set alarms on indicators and you would then exit out of your short position at a small loss. In this example, we also see a nice bearish divergence in relation to the prior rally labeled divergence #1. Divergence #3 shows a beautiful bullish divergence. Price action dropped as volume and buy pressure picked up on the O.B.V. & the C.M.F.. If you were to trade this cautiously, based on those two indicators, you would enter into the long position at the end of the yellow box where a breakout occurred and was confirmed by the rise in volume. An aggressive and risky trader would have bought the oversold candle. However, nothing showing here gave you an indication that was the bottom other than the slight bounce on what could be called an O.B.V. support line in yellow.
by Nick_Core
30
Binance Coin - Divergences and expected volatilityBNB/BTC is currently on a nice up trend comparing with BTC and its coin burn is just around the corner. It showed a bearish divergence and it may show a bullish one, getting its price back to 0.0016 range, where it found resistance twice and will probably serve as a good support. If this bullish divergence plays out, we may see BNB price retest its ATH and FOMO might kick in once again. After its coin burn, we'll probably see some cool off on the price action just like what happened back in January. If all of this does plays out, we might see its price back to 0.0014 to 0.0015 range. Its coin burn is scheduled to happen around April 15th and we can expect some high volatility, just like what happened back in January 15th.
by cryptobulls51
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) Definition Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. Money Flow Volume is a metric used to measure the buying and selling pressure of a security for single period. C.M.F. then sums Money Flow Volume over a user determined look-back period. Any look-back period can be used. However, the most popular settings would be 20 or 21 closes. In the Chaikin Money Flow's value fluctuates between 1 and -1. C.M.F. can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore, trading opportunities. Chaikin's Money Flow's value fluctuates between 1 and -1. The basic interpretation is: When C.M.F. is closer to 1, buying pressure is higher. When C.M.F. is closer to -1, selling pressure is higher. Buying and Selling Pressure can be a good way to confirm an ongoing trend. This can give the trader an added level of confidence that the current trend is likely to continue. However, just becaue buy/sell pressure is in favor of the current trend it does not mean that levels shown can sustain the direction if it is advancing or declining into the opposite direction. During a Bullish Trend, continuous Buying Pressure (Chaikin Money Flow values above 0) can indicate that prices will continue to rise. During a Bearish Trend, continuous Selling Pressure (Chaikin Money Flow values below 0) can indicate that prices will continue to fall. The C.M.F. is designed for use with the On Balance Volume (OBV) and Chaikin Oscillator in addition to other volume indicators. See: www.tradingview.com(CMF) Example In this example, I will focus on a Bearish scenario since most traders tend to be able to spot Bullish scenarios easily. As can be seen on the 6 hour chart above, the divergences are typically pretty clear. At the C.M.F. peak shown by the vertical red line, we had a nice rally prior. At the C.M.F. peak we dropped for 18 hours and then started a new rally. At this point, the C.M.F. began to show less buy pressure that did not coincide with the new price high since its prior peak. In this case, I would monitor smaller time frames (for quicker reaction data) to see if the volume picks up. It did not; creating a drop to match the actual buy pressure decline. Move forward to the price action shown by the vertical blue line. We attempted another rally with less than convincing buy pressure on the C.M.F.. Price action created what some traders call a double top that could not be sustainable due to the declining buy pressure on the C.M.F.. For my settings here I have left the stock inputs at 20 and changed the view to area with breaks. Conclusion The Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) is great for identifying hidden price movements. As with all indicators you should use it in conjunction with similar indicators (Volume based in this example) and also confirm on multiple time frames. The C.M.F. has been a great tool that I have used over the years to identify early price prediction and movement. I will focus on indicators best used in conjunction with the C.M.F. in my next few educational ideas. Click like on this if you would like to learn about more trading tools. Thanks!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Nick_Core
19
₿itcoin Cool Down and Bull TrendSeeing some small divergences on the OBV, MACD, and RSI the last push on the Bitstamp BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and Bitfinex BITFINEX:BTCUSD 15 minute. TD count shows a exhaustion cycle coming to an end soon on the 15 minute but exhaustion cycles have been unreliable on ₿TC lately. Hourly and and higher time frames don't show the divergence but do show that a cool down is needed to at least the two local support levels shown on the 15 minute PINK support lines. Volume is your friend to find which one we bounce on so stay glued to it when we approach them. Bitfinex 15 minute indicators Bitfinex Hourly Bitfinex 4 hour I am expecting a cool down and then a continuance upward. One thing to note is the volume levels have remained on par with the rally as far as the CMF is concerned. We are seeing heavy buying pressure still but do show a minor weakness in strength. I never under estimate ₿itcoin though. 27k by Near Years
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Nick_Core
1
Divergence Trading PatternsDIVERGENCES are used to forecast an upcoming Price Reversal or Continuation. There are 4 different types of Divergences and the first ones are Regular Bullish and Regular Bearish Divergences. What are they? Regular Divergences are when the price movement is contrary to the indicator movement. Signal for an upcoming Price Reversal, trend is about to change. Then the second ones are Hidden Bullish and Hidden Bearish Divergences. Hidden Divergences are signal of Trend Continuation. Meaning that the price continues to move in it's current direction. If you have learned this method already this is a great reminder and works very well as cheat sheet. But if you are a learner then the chart is explaining very simple how you can spot them. You should take time and effort to learn this. It does not take long before you start spotting different kind of divergences. You can use one of following oscillators to spot the divergences. (In the end it does not really matters which one you use). MACD RSI CCI + BB etc there are more but here are few you to get started. Any questions or need help? Feel free to leave comments and feedback! Yarr!
BEducation
by yarr
4
XRPBTC @ Poloniex: Short/Long-Entry Based On CloudIt is possible to see that Ichimoku Cloud DOES NOT show great conditions to take long positions. So, for those whom are a little bit in a hurry, this actual moment is interesting to try E2E (Edge-To-Edge) cloud strategy with a short target around 12530Satoshis. However, for those whom are NOT in a hurry, this is a interesting moment to risk a long position in this Shitcoin with target around 16500Satoshis region. Above it is possible to see that RSI and MACD do not give much information regarding to divergences; nevertheless, RSI shows that this asset is not overbought and buyer team is winning the game, and both MACD and Volume clearly are showing that we are in accumulation phase.
by lc_parente
4
Aud Nzd long possibleHey guys keep your eye on the Aud Nzd possible long opportunity here .. we see price nearly touching a daily support here ( maybe a we see further drop right on to it---something like a trap ) We see RSI Divergence... and a nice momentum bar to the upside All i wanna see is a break of that little flip zone right in front of us . Break n close of a 4h candle above this resistance/flip zone is my signal to go long here ... if we break the support to the downside the idea is invalid and we need to re-adjust the whole thing ... so lets see what we can get ..... and always remember we are here to react to the price not to predict it ;-) Tigerblood baby
Long
by Trueman23
NZD Futures: Bearish Shark & Double Top w/ DivergenceI just entered right now at .0742 for the completed Shark pattern. Price seems to be stalling in this area and there is bearish divergence present on both the RSI and AO. The hourly AO just turned red as well for a little extra confluence. I am only risking ~10 pips on this first try and targeting 0.6927 for a potential bullish 5-0 pattern. As per my strategy when I am up ~10 pips (equal to the risk) I will move to breakeven/cover costs and see what happens.
NShort
by SharkbaitAl
Bitcoin short ATTEMPT #2Technichals : Risign wedge coming to an end + daily MACD and RSI divergence (also confirmed in weekly). We need a breakdown of the wedge to confirm short. Entry: 1322 SL: 1390 Targets: 1230 (20%) - 1135 (60%) - 1030 (20%) Fundamentals same as last attempt: China crypto withdrawals frozen. They could be potentially about to be opened again. We'll have to pay attention to this, specially if you are trading okcoin quarterlies futures. SEC told us twice (COIN etf and SolidX etf) that bitcoin is not safe for average investor. It will probably say no too to the current review of COIN etf. Scaling stalled. Neither SegWit softfork nor bigger blocks hardfork seem to reach enough support, and unfriendliness keeps escalating. Withdrawal of fiat issues in usd exchanges (bitfinex and okcoin mainly). With potentially more serious issues in Bitfinex. Read below for my take on this. ** Now a conspiracy theory. This has not much to do with this trade in particular, but i wanted to express my opinion somewhere. ** My take in the bitfinex issue : They get hacked for 120k btc without providing any proof of the amount hacked. 120k btc were worth +75M usd at the time (+160M usd now). They dont provide a proof of the actual users holdings in the exchange either. The debt is settled in usd. They give out a debt token, to regularly pay dividends back from bitfinex earnings. They make several payments over time: 1.2%-1.3%-2%-4.6%-5% and then a final payment of 100%. The last and biggest payment happens when they can't wire fiat out of their exchange A big premium of up to 10% starts to be built in their exchange over other exchanges. So in the best case scenario, in my opinion, they played their customers. This is my conspiracy theory : First they probably inflated their loss in the hack (not saying there was no hack, but that the hack was for a smaller % of the users holdings). Remember they didnt officially provide any proof neither from the actual amount of btc stolen nor the actual users holdings in bitfinex. Then used the money they falsely reported as hacked to buy debt tokens in the initial panic for about 30-40% of the money owed. Win-win for bitfinex. Later they started to pay some small percentages to keep the hopes up (1.2% 01-Sep, 1.3% 30-Sep, 2% 10-Jan, 5% 06-Mar). Probably used these payments to inside trade their own debt tokens. Notice that by they 10th January payment only 35M usd of debt were left to pay. 25M by the march payment. The remaining debt was either converted to iFinex equity or "eaten" by bitfinex financial magic. Sometime in late march, they find banking issues, being unable to wire fiat out. And this is key in this conspiracy theory. This will allow them to pay back the remaining debt for, once again, less than the owed money. They payout the remaining debt in bitfinex balance (without being backed by real usd? at least not everything) They announce fiat withdrawal issues, creating a premium on their exchange. They start arbitring from other exchanges to theirs for a 5%-10% profit per coin. About 70,000 bitcoin ran away from bitfinex with their withdrawals issues, make some numbers. The final goal of all these: simple, wipe out 120k btc (settled at 70M usd) in debt with probably not even 5-10M usd spent . They sucked the money from their own customers (first buying debt tokens for less than 50% of the debt represented, then selling them cryptocurrencies for ~8% profit, all with customers money. They probably also inside traded their own debt token prior each payment and inflated their loss in the hack). And this is the best case scenario i can imagine. Lol i'm mentally ill. Don't listen too much to me. To sum up, if we (customers) are not dumb, we should create demand for one of the next: fully regulated bitcoin exchanges or fully decentralized bitcoin exchange
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by bagofXMR
29