Will AMC do what GME did?One of the largest theater chains in the world took a beating with their financials due to this pandemic. If you are optimistic and enjoy the cinemas, you could think that with vaccines and a possible healthier post-pandemic world, where everything goes back to normal... that AMC can recover. Which is certainly why I have this in my long term investing portfolio. However this is very risky as they are on the brink of bankruptcy, a major business plan revision would be needed. Now... recently it was up nearly 7% Friday with no related news to the business... over 100 million volume came in (3-4x avg vol), this could be the pump situation that happened with GME and we could see a big move coming shortly so this gives couple lotto options that i would consider
1) Buy shares here, sell at the possible resistance I have on the chart or ride it up to my pt (medium risk: low reward)
2) $1C for 1/2023 now around 200$ (I'm already in, low risk: high reward leap)
3) $3C 1/29 .42 lotto or $5C 1/29 .23 (low risk: high reward)
Disclaimer: Im not a financial advisor
Disney
DIS on support of trendline and 21-emaHello my young padawans. Behind the scenes of the EV frenzy, biotechs, and SPACS the good old DIS has discretely (maybe no so discretely if you look at the past month but sort of behind the scenes) made its move up and reached new ATH on the hopes of vaccine and prophylactics, and other branches of the conglomerate such as Disney+. If you have been buying throughout the pandemic like I did you should be sitting very comfortably now.
It seems though that the spike up lost a little of its steam. After the peak DIS dropped a little and has been trading sideways for a few days. Today it breached the long term trendline (yellow) and found support on the 21-ema on the daily. The price closed above the trendline, which is a good sign but other indicators are not very positive:
1. MACD is curling down with bearish crossover of MA and signal;
2. ADX is curling down fast as well which shows the trend is getting weaker;
3. +DI and -DI are converging bearish (red line moving up and green line moving down; quite sharply actually)
4. There is a gap that has not been filled yet
This doesn't mean the price will go down but there is a slight bearish bias at the moment. A pullback would be an opportunity to start a position of add more if you already have one, or at least that is what I am doing.
Safe trades!
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Update on Disney: price stalling at the topsIn my previous post, I've mentioned that Disney is dangerously high and that technicals are screaming for a correction. Some time has past and the price is still stalled around the highs. RSI has already dipped quite below the 70 line and MACD's crossover is spreading wider. The histogram is increasing as well. We have a small subdued bearish flag (the figure marked in red lines) that with Yesterday's close it has been breached, though not with a strong intention. Two key zones (the squares in blue) remain to be passed to speak about testing the trend and eventual reversal of that uptrend. The target of the figure is implying for a potential move towards the gap level and the trend support zone.
DIS to 190?Levels annotated on the chart, Ive updated Disney the past few weeks and almost every week is new ath, Set a tight stop loss as its at all time highs and looks to be coming to an end of its parabolic move, If Dis+ continues to display great news and brings in new content Dis can keep pushing and create new highs. Mickey giving us Disney Land money!
DIS is Santa Mouse coming out this week? Disney had some good movement last week, looking for some nice movement this week with the Santa rally. Look for an entry near my wave c correction, we could see a dip or it could ignore that wave c and have a bullish push pm. Look for an entry near 171.11 under that we could go for that gap fill down at 170.48. Major breakout of 175.84 and we'll see ATH again!
Safe plays: 175C 180C (1/8, 1/15)
lotto play/ day trade: 175C, 180C (12/31) very risky lotto 185C 12/31 .17c
160 in Jan 2021?I expect DIS to consolidate or start the drop during the last week of December.
I look for a low to be formed by week of Jan 11, 2021 (target 153-160). Alternatively, with positive market conditions, we could see a final rally to 185 in Jan, before the drop to 153-160 in Feb 2021 close to earnings.
EPS still negative, so I don't expect earnings anticipation to prove to be a positive catalyst at this stage.
Good luck!
DIS 12/21/2020 LongDIS gapped up on heavy volume over a significant level that it was bumping up against & has spent six days digesting these higher prices.
I bought a half-sized position on Monday (12/21/20) when the market gapped lower due to a new COVID strain mutation in the U.K. I believe that the market is over COVID & has been for some time. Unless there is a negative development on the vaccine front, Pumpin' Powell is going to be able to continue inflating the asset bubble. The DIS pullback also coincided nicely with a bounce off of the 9-day EMA.
My initial stop is below the low of the gap-up day. I'm looking to add larger size on a break of Monday's highs circa $172. I would also be willing to add on a false break & quick reclaim of Monday's lows, at which point I would move stops up to just below the false break.
DIS Can it keep pushing?Shorting DIS doesn't last long, one thing I've learned is to never short the mouse! the Mickey cult is ridiculous. Good reversal today, bounce right off my .786 at 167.98. The only reason we went down yesterday was because the price downgrade but Bears premiums were crushed today. We could see another leg up to 188.50 by next week. Potential price upgrade tomorrow could help this momentum carry, on top of the great plans Disney has with marvel and Disney+. Great things in the future for Disney and once parks open up ill be super bullish.
My plan: 180C 12/24 (great OI and Vol)
Key levels:
Support: 169.29, under 165.36 i can see a bounce near 163,
Resistance 177.47
Don't FOMO Buy -- Follow the Mickey Mouse Years - Cycle Analysis
Disney is exploding on big news today (December 12). But don't get in now. Follow the cycle.
NYSE:DIS usually peaks around 60 days before earnings according to the cycles.... December 12 is exactly 60 days before earnings.
Blue Chanel: Disney's safest (and most sensible) bullish entry would be when Disney returns in the blue channel marked. Disney moved in this channel from 1998 to 2000, until it broke down. Disney only returned in this bullish channel by 2014 and has maintained the bull run in this channel fairly consistently since then. I believe Disney will return back in this channel by April 2021.
I like Disney, I'm long-term bullish on the company, but not at the price it is trading at right now.
Don't let Mickey steal your money, traders.
Good luck!
Disney - Straddles going into Earnings? Hey Traders! Disney is reporting earnings today after market close. There really isn't much technical analysis can do to determine what outcome the report will have on the stock price. But I will say this... Disney's stock showed decent price appreciation in the last two and a half weeks going from lows of $117.23 per share to highs of $147.68 per share. Although Disney is off it's highs, the current trading price of Disney's stock is $135, which is still above its 8 day exponential moving average. Whether Disney meets, beats, or misses analysts estimates for this quarter's EPS and Revenue, the option prices are a big move for Disney. A look at the "At The Money" straddles (at the 135 Strike, expiring tomorrow) show they are trading for nearly $600 .
Which means Disney would need to move up or down by $6.00 per share just to break even. Right? But wait...
Keep in mind that option prices are also made up of premium.. which consists of time value and implied volatility. Implied Volatility is considered a measurement of the perceived risk for an individual option contract. That risk is then priced into that option as a premium. Usually, implied volatility is at its highest before anticipated earnings reports or company news announcements. The day after the news is made public, implied volatility usually drops, which can drastically lower options prices.
In reality, you would need more than a $6.00 per share move in Disney stock considering. I say this because there is nothing more frustrating than seeing you were right on the expected move, but lost money on the option because you forgot to consider the effects of implied volatility.
Now, grab your favorite drink, sit back and watch Disney's stock after the bell as they are expected to report 5 minutes after market close.
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