DIS - BEARISH SCENARIONew selloffs for Walt Disney Company after the Q1 miss, reported on Wednesday.
The company reported $1.08 in adjusted earnings per share, the forecast was for $ 1.19
The next support level is located at $79.
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DIS
$DIS Searching for Demand - Long Opportunites on DeckDIS is currently trading below its first major demand level and into the Market Discount Zone. Long positions can be built here but expect a possible return to the origin of the march move between 70 and 90 dollars at the next Major Demand area Down. Remember building a responsible long position in the market means buying time if you are in options or allowing sufficient time to pass while accumulating for any reasonable opportunities to play out. The market wont be a casino forever, and will eventually return to the slow and boring long crawl we are all used to.
DIS Just Broke Crucial Trend LineDisney has been in the news a lot over the past couple weeks, fighting a bill that was passed in Florida. In reaction to that we are seeing FL state strip Disney of self governing status . This will cost DIS money and will add red tape to their operations. This negative fundamental news is matched with a very bearish technical set up. DIS just lost crucial trend line that had been held for over a year. Now that this trend line is broken I believe we trade down to support around $100.
Disney's Troubled Waters$DIS has been in a slow decline since March 2021 ATH.
Recent political winds have shifted and Florida is rescinding the "Reedy Creek" special purpose district that's been in place since 1967 following partisan policymaking.
The most recent declines this week are not indicative of the much broader weakening of consumer sentiment, more a doubling down and reinforcement of the economic headwinds corporations are facing in light of rampant inflation and a Federal Reserve that is no longer able to accomodate loose monetary policies.
Given the likelihood of central banks taking dramatic steps in the coming months and major economic indicators screaming correction, it's not surprising to see companies like Disney & Netflix show significant weakness as consumers curtail spending.
This appears to be more of a leading indicator of corporate valuations coming down... similar to the declines at the outset of 2020 before the pandemic really took hold of the global economy.
Expect $DIS to test the 200 EMA around $91 in the next two months.
Further bearish price action is expected to the March 2020 $79 level.
Depending on the broader market's direction and significant recession risk, as the Fed begins divesting assets from its balance sheets along with rate hikes not seen in over a decade... Disney may see even further retraction given its reliance on retail consumer spending behaviors.
Recent relevant market pullbacks:
1. Dot.com bubble w/ ~65% retracement
2. Housing bubble with a near 60% retracement prior to Federal Reserve quantitative easing and near zero interest rates.
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: $DIS) Wicks Thru Golden Pocket!🎯The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It operates through two segments, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution; and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products. The company engages in the film and episodic television content production and distribution activities, as well as operates television broadcast networks under the ABC, Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brands; and studios that produces motion pictures under the Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures banners. It also offers direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, ESPN+, Hulu, and Star+; sale/licensing of film and television content to third-party television and subscription video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services by Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; Disneyland Resort in California; Disneyland Paris; Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and Shanghai Disney Resort; Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii; licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort; and provides consumer products, which include licensing of trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games. Further, it sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The Walt Disney Company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
NFLX: it was a good movie!The earnings season continues in the U.S. stock market. Netflix (NFLX) is down by 35% on a negative quarterly report. Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers in Q1.
Subscriber growth stopped for the first time in 10 years! The company acknowledged that it was becoming harder and harder to grow its subscriber base in many markets. Also, the termination of streaming platforms in russia could have affected this. Closest competitor and streaming giant Disney (DIS) fell by 5.56% after the Netflix report.
Fundamental analysis. Globally, we can already say that against the background of geopolitical instability, rising prices for energy and high inflation - user growth is not expected, because consumers will spend more money on basic products (food, real estate) than on additional luxury products.
Also, the lockdown in China, as one of the world's leading manufacturers, does not help market to grow and the negative news about the worsening economic indicator does not inspire optimism at all. Chinese developer Evergrande is just the beginning of the chain.
Chart analysis. On the chart we marked the accumulation and distribution zones. The trigger for Netflix's price rise was the HYPE (according to G.Trends data) around the newsmaker of the 2021 TV series Squid Game. The hype helped the big player sell stocks even faster.
The low liquidity areas were a great support for the price. Note the increased volume of the first bottom. This is where traders and investors opened longs, expecting this to be the end of the fall. The second bottom liquidated traders who use any leverage, and the panic sell-offs now will only help the big player to buy more.
The liquidity gaps areas:
1. $188-226
2. $389-422
Technically, these levels could give a good clue about the direction of the trend in the future.
Right now the price is down by 73% from the ATH. Here the accumulation phase may begin again in the $200-350 range.
Write in your comments, did the Squid Game HYPE accidentally become a NFLX highs (ATH)?
Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
DIS getting punished for taking business away from NFLXDIS is a solid company with many different avenues to make money; they are a BEAST. NFLX is... well not. NFLX only streams content and much of the content they have streamed over the past 20 years during their growth, they didn't own. It was just a matter of time for the company to feel the pain of competition from the market place. Over the past few years, we have seen HBO max, Amazon Prime, DIsney +, Paramount +, and other come to market with streaming services. Many of which had contracts to allow NFLX to stream their content, but that has changed as those contracts have expired and those other platforms are now streaming their own content.
DIS has so much more to offer than just streaming; broadcasting (TV), amusement parks, cruises, and the most MASSIVE content library. DIS is getting punished today and they shouldn't be, as they have adapted with the times. If there is any company that offers the TOTAL entertainment package, it's definitely DIS. Be bullish, this dip is dump.
Netflix post pandemic risk materialized in Amazon and DisneyThe news from Netflix this morning should not be a surprise to anyone, the company's executives had expressed two years ago during the peak of the pandemic that conditions were as good as they would get. With an increasing number of competitors coming under their skirt, Netflix is now reverting to the mean.
It would appear the third generation rule might be validating itself, as Netflix was the innovator and paved the way for other well-capitalized and more diversified competitors such as #AmazonPrime and #DisneyPlus the latter which has been punished for pushing radical progressive policies.
The key difference between Netflix and Disney is a multi-generational all-American brand, it is well entrenched in the global culture and has a massive war chest from diversified physical operations, cruise ships, music parks, and royalties across other entertainment segments.
Amazon has clearly a massive advantage being the owner of the largest cloud service AWS which in fact is used by Netflix for their operations. In essence, you can argue that Netflix is subsidizing Amazon Prime via operating expenses at USD$6B. Amazon Prime asymmetric advantages combined with the largest capital reserves from the largest online store, placing Netflix at the mercy of AWS.
In fact, we forecast that Netflix revenues and cash flows will continue to deteriorate to the point of no return within the next 24 months, placing itself as a target for Amazon.
Disney: Try AgainDisney
Short Term - We look to Sell at 127.19 (stop at 131.94)
A break of bespoke support at 130.00, and the move lower is already underway. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our outlook is bearish. The trend of lower highs is located at 142.00. News events could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
Our profit targets will be 113.78 and 102.30
Resistance: 130.00 / 144.00 / 155.00
Support: 110.00 / 100.00 / 90.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
$DIS Disney Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets $DIS Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets
Do I think that Target 4 will hit… also-freakin’-lutely…
I had to do some research to make sure that a move like that is justified with Disney… and it definitely is…
I have my alerts set for Target 4…
I don’t trade or accumulate this regularly so I don’t think I’ll be starting a position any higher than target 3… If it gets below the purple EMA line (Which is the 180EMA carried over from the Monthly Chart) I will consider a long position…
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Disney: This One Doesn't End WellDisney
Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 128.13 (stop at 131.49)
A break of bespoke support at 130.00, and the move lower is already underway. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our outlook is bearish. The trend of lower highs is located at 142.00. Continued downward momentum from 160.00 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
Our profit targets will be 116.29 and 102.30
Resistance: 142.00 / 158.00 / 185.00
Support: 130.00 / 120.00 / 100.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Longing Disney. DISGoals 150, 156. Invalidation at 129 .
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
DIS: Complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how DIS is doing today, and do a complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (H, D and W charts)!
First, in the 1h chart, it reacted nicely at the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement, and now it is going up nicely. It is interesting to notice that when it crashed last week, it just hit the previous support at $ 140, and bounced back up quickly.
All of this tells me that DIS wants to engage in a bull trend soon. For now, I would say it is trendless, but we do have some bullish signs around. However, it must lose the 61.8% retracement, otherwise, it could drop all the way down to $ 140 again.
To me, the most important key point is the previous resistance at $ 150, as this is a pivot point seen in the daily chart:
This would be the first pivot point in many months, since DIS started its bear trend, and this could be the beginning of a mid-term reversal, at least. DIS is trendless in the daily chart too, but there are two open gaps (red dashed lines), and if it reverses, they will become targets.
In the weekly chart, I like the fact it is reacting near a support level, but here we see a clear bear trend, as it is doing lower highs/lows and it is below the 21 ema.
Coincidence or not, the 21 ema in the weekly chart ($ 154) is quite close to the pivot point in the daily chart ($ 150), making this point an important resistance.
Let’s see if DIS will trigger its key points or not. Either way, I’ll keep you guys updated, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses!
DIS: Time to BUY after amazing EARNINGS?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about DIS today, as it is flying after earnings, and do a complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) on it.
When we see a movement like this, it is important to not get emotional and euphoric, and see the situation as it is. As a trader and long-term investor in DIS, I’m very pleased with this movement, however, is it the right time to buy it? No.
The reason is very simple: DIS just hit a target, which is the gap at $ 155.18. This point is supposed to work as a resistance in the short-term, and the odds are that DIS will do a pullback from here. If not a pullback, at least a sideways correction.
So, what to do with DIS? It depends on your strategy. If you are a short-term trader I think it is time to book profits, if not totally, at least partially. If you plan on buy DIS, or add positions, wait for it to get near a support level again. Remember what I always tell you guys: Buy near supports. This way, you’ll maximize your Risk/Reward.
If DIS drops to its 21 ema, that’s ok. To me, would be great to see DIS repeating what GOOG did after its earnings:
The bias would still be bullish, and it would be a second chance to add positions here. I say this only because I still believe DIS will fill all its previous gaps:
This reaction came in just in time, as in the weekly chart DIS filled a gap from Nov 2020, and found a very nice support level there, before it did a classic Hammer candlestick pattern:
Even with the possibility of a pullback in the short-term, DIS is doing a very good reaction in the daily chart, and we have two other gaps at $ 173 and $ 182, which are targets of this reversal movement. The weekly chart reinforces this idea of a pullback in the short-term, as DIS just hit its 21 ema there, and this might be another resistance for us, along with the gap area in the 1h chart.
It will probably take a few months to recover, but the signs are looking good. To me, DIS is doing what I like to call “gap reversal ritual”, a pattern that never failed me before, and I talked about it in a very old analysis I did on NVDA, last year (link below this post).
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis on stocks and indices. Let’s keep our eyes on DIS, as probably we’ll see more opportunities here soon.
All the best.
DIS Disney Price TargetsTwo weeks ago you could have bough DIS at the October 2020 level. What an opportunity that was, with one year and 4 months gains washed away.
But now they reported a strong Q1 earnings:
earnings of $1.06 per share vs 57 cents in the Zacks consensus
revenues of $21.8 billion vs $21.2 billion analysts expectations
Disney+ subscriber numbers: 129.8 million vs 125.8 million expected. That was somehow to be expected after the NFLX earnings .
Parks, Experiences and Products segment growth of over 100% YoY
My price target is the $159 resistance and, if they continue like that in the second quarter, $175.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.