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S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($44.5) | Broadening Top Short Call - Took an initial short position in several stocks at the end of day Friday. Looking to add more exposure throughout the next several weeks. I don't expect a crash or a recession or anything until late 2021, just a swift and moderate correction at some point in the near future. Larger move than we've had in many weeks - you can see this by the orange bars enveloping the prior two weeks orange bars. It's been an exercise in patience these last few months. Finally think the time is ripe for a reversal. Fear-Greed hit 98 on Thursday, the highest I've ever recorded. Put-Call is extremely low. Bulkowski CPI went bearish as of today. Window Dressing and Santa Claus rally have concluded. AAII survey elevated and complacent. Ned Davis sentiment is extremely elevated. We are in the 3rd standard deviation of the trend , which is where a contrarian investor like myself finds the opportunity. Dow Transports (IYT) is struggling and severely underperforming. VIX is no longer declining, I believe volatility should increase which is further supported by the expected moves. Breadth is declining, signaled by Percent of stocks above 20,50,100 day moving averages Looks like we have a broadening top formation . I have, in purple , marked the initial target for both outcomes. Broadening Tops have poor reliability, so my ABCDE count might be flipped due to my bearish bias. I've shown how both outcomes should look. Last Weeks Expected Move: (Excellent week in my opinion) First Five Days: seekingalpha.com January Barometer: www.yardeni.com 3rd Standard Deviation of Trend: SKEW: Breadth Declining: VIX: Bonds TLT Perking Up: Transports: Initial Claims: - I recently lost my Investment Analyst job for what it's worth. PMI: (Disappointing reading but expecting it to pick up) Goodluck out there next week, please do your own due diligence and don't blindly follow me or anyone's investment suggestions. Everyone is different. Best to all you traders and wishing you a tremendous 2020. - RH
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RHTrading
4
Almost there.. Do not short yet! US INDICIESEverything is on the chart. We will go to the white fib line in the pitchfork (1 FIB) at the very least. WHY? Fed is injecting a record ~430B$ into this "NOT QE" repo market in January. I expect the first two weeks (at LEAST, maybe all of JAN) of January to rocket up as a final push and then a breakdown. Unless the Fed continues to inject more and more cash into the markets beyond january, this could be the end. Devils advocate: T has an election coming up in 2020 and the only solid thing he has to run on in my opinion is the market performance. So there is a good chance this REPO crap will continue all the way THROUGH november+ until there are some serious riots in the streets. He wont let a market tank on him before elections unless he is forced in a corner by others... Just my opinion. Please thumbs up and comment what you think! Happy NEW YEARS!
SP:SPXLong
by tubeSound
5
Dow Jones - Not a coincidence - Bearish signsThis is not financial advice. These are my personal views. Nothing in this should be taken as advice. Looking at the log scale going back to the great depression, there are several things that we can see. We've been in this channel for almost a century. Ebbs and flows and signs that we are running out of steam. I heard people joke around a few months ago that the stock market just "keeps going up" but if we're being honest with each other, we're running out of runway and there's a cliff in front of us. If we can't get off the ground, we're going to fall into the ocean. Alright. Bad analogies aside, we're seeing bearish divergence on the 6 month scale going back to 1999 and the recent fall in 2017. We're at the top of this channel as its drawn and while there's nothing to really say we're going to fall tomorrow, there are certainly signs that we're in a euphoria stage in the stock market. 1. Trade wars. Need I say more? 2. Inflation. USA is printing money like it's going out of style 3. Interest rates cut. The economy is so good, yet we're cutting rates. What? 4. Trump. Like him or hate him, there's definitely euphoria around the stock market around election time and right after his election. 5. Yield curve. I could go on but these are the important pieces of information I am holding near and dear to my heart. I don't consider this a dire warning as the market can continue going up but we are quickly reaching the point where if (or when?) we collapse, it could wipe trillions out of the stock market. Please be careful. Watch for big companies to fall first. Watch Amazon, Apple, Netflix. If people are bragging they have $500Bn in a stock, they're probably looking to sell it to you. You don't generally brag about big positions unless you're looking to sell. No targets. No timeline. This chart creates one candle every 6 months. This is a slow moving dragon. Trade carefully friends. <3 -CE-
DJ:DJIShort
by bitdoctor