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Nasdaq NQ - Bad News for Bears. But First, Bad News for BullsAfter observing recent price action in addition to the sentiment in trading communities and Twitter, I've been doing some hard thinking about the notion that we are now in a bear market. All the fundamentals say that there's such and such skyrocketing debt, food crisis, inflation, energy crisis, Europe crisis, currency crisis. And all of these fundamentals are true. And yet, most fundamentally, although the U.S. equities markets have retraced heavily since 2022 began, they are not in a bear market. Just look at Nasdaq on the monthly. This is not a bear market. Frankly, I went looking for an example of a bear market in both Bitcoin and WTI Crude And found that both of their monstrous retraces were simply natural results of their having gone parabolic in the first place. Never forget that it's a Law of the Cosmos that for every loss there is a gain, for each positive, there is a negative, and that when something reaches an extreme, it will reverse. If you don't believe it, just pick something up and throw it in the air and watch what happens. Nothing can stop the result of the action. The way traders treat a "bear market" is about as absurd as if humans were to treat the rising of the sun in the morning as if it were the VERY BEST THING THAT COULD EVER HAPPEN and the night like the END OF THE WORLD. Thousands of years ago when man was still primal and had no idea what was going on, perhaps they felt exactly that way. What we mean by a "bear market" really refers to a phase of time where traders are no longer able to mash buy on AAPL or TSLA at the top and make 3% per day without it even dipping. What we mean by a "bear market" is a phase in time where highs get melted down and new lows keep getting made, and that's really where we are and have been all year. And that's why nobody is happy. Seek and destroy markets are hard to trade. What I am getting at with all these words, is we are still in a bull market. We are just in the night time of the bull market. Several fundamental conditions have not been met for this world's economic heart to have entered either a recession or depression. The Fed has quietly been printing money and propping up the banks since 2019 . These Central Bank Central Government bailouts are now the norm, rather than the exception, because humanity is in trouble. And so, what I would like to say, is that we are very, very close to the point where being short is going to cost you your portfolio. We're not going to make new monthly lows. August wasn't the top. But we're also at a phase where going long is likewise going to cost you your portfolio. In my most recent SPX ES call, we were able to anticipate both the areas the MMs would retrace to and the upside areas they would take out, and both of those have been achieved: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws However, as the price action unfolded in the week and I thought more and more about what was going on, I felt unsettled with the notion that JPowell's speaking was going to lead to a dump, and so I made a revised call on Nasdaq NQ Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points The problem I still feel in my guts about the above call is that although it's going up, and fast, and at the time I predicted, it's unsettlingly curious that the Lords of Wall Street were benevolent enough to let all the longs have such an easy time of it and not sweep out that July 18 pivot, despite coming so close, before we go on a 2,000+ point winning streak. That's just, not how they do things, man. Frankly the time we spent under 12,200 was also just simply too brief and too easy. And so, all of this leads me to today's call. Previously in August, I had anticipated that a 72 VIX is set to print, and I would imagine this would come when the June lows are taken out. VIX - 9x8 = 72 And while I thoroughly believe this is still in the cards, I now believe that we don't see this until late in the year or into 2023. Fundamentally, I believe the issue is that the Democratic Socialists of America Party require the stock markets to be happy ahead of and during the U.S. October Midterm Elections, because much of their voting base is teachers, unions, and old people, all of which have heavy investments in funds and pension plans that are neck deep long on everything establishment. And yet I also believe that we won't go up so easily, since fear is still yet to come. Looking at the weekly, I believe we have two critical inflection points. I believe that 15,500 is in the cards before 2022 is out, but we have unfinished business lower before that happens. It's like dancing, two steps forward, one step back. One step forward, two steps back. Never just forward, forward, forward, or back, back, back. Trendlines are about as scientific as looking up your horoscope on Yahoo, but people still do it, believe in it, and follow it, and so it is something that is simply going to be attacked. If you do it right, you can take advantage of the opportunities presented by not being the first mouse to go for the cheese. Price action on the daily shows that Friday's moon candle not only created a gap, but already took out all September highs and has already rebalanced a big August gap. What lies below, however, is our very solid and very crucial trendline, which also happens to correspond with a lot of wicks from June and July. Wicks are notable because they represent places of low volume trading. What I believe lies ahead is a case where we will quickly and violently descend towards the 11,650 range, test the trend line, break the trendline, and fill in all that volume in the wicks. To me, one of the biggest tells is that AAPL, which leads the Nasdaq, was actually _very_ bearish last week. Even on Friday, it was bearish. To me, this says it wants to continue to make new lows, which means everything else is going to make new lows. I believe that during September FOMC, the Fed will do something like a 50 bps hike instead of a 75 bps hike and/or revise their inflation target to 3% from 2%, and that will cause the markets to moon back towards 15,000. The Bank of Japan, which meets more or less the same day, will maintain Yield Curve Control on the 10Y Bond at 0.25% despite the annihilation of the Yen, which means the old money parade into U.S. equities will continue, and we will get a September FOMC melt up, not a melt down. Note that there is not another FOMC until November. We're not in a bear market. The June low was the low until at least the end of the year. After you see Apple post $198, let's see what happens in terms of VIX 72 and a bear market. No matter how bad things get, social stability is the Communist Party's number one priority. Ultimately, they need the United States to be fat and complacent and not revolt in order to maintain their power. They need to maintain their power to install Central Bank Digital Currencies, digital ID, and social credit across the globe. To do that, they need the U.S. equities market to keep delivering "the happy," to keep serving as a distraction, and to continue to give you something to gamble away your life savings on, so that your eyes are focused on everything besides what is important to your fundamental life. Marxist-Leninist rogues rule the world at present, but only for a little while longer. In the interim, if you trade against them, they will hurt you. So have some fun going long on TSLA and AAPL for now. Just make sure you take profits instead of thinking you caught the new paradigm. It will still take a few more months for Justice and Conscience to return to the surface of this world. In the meantime, WTI and Natural Gas are going to dump. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls & Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? And when all is said and done, where you want to have your money is in defense contractors and energy companies. Boeing BA - A Dark Harbour Good luck, and stay safe. The future is bright. But you have to fjord the river Jiang first.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
12
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear SawsHuman beings, especially retail traders, can only really handle themselves in trending markets. Many people, especially the old men, have grown used to mashing buy on blue chip equities or the indexes no stop, and watching it go up every day no matter what. "Bought the top? Who cares? Made 3% this week!" Unfortunately, that money printer tractor pull is no longer in operation until certain critical downside conditions have been cleared. Because there is so much at risk, and so much to gain, in trading, there is a lot of emotion. Fear and greed predominate, and it's extremely challenging to cultivate these hearts, these attachments away, becoming cool, empty, and most importantly - rational. Algorithms, on the other hand, love ranging markets. They love seek and destroy patterns. It's easy for them, because they're fast, can process large amounts of data, are equipped with unbelievable liquidity, and are really just playing a game. In my opinion, this coming week is going to have a tremendous amount of action as the setup for the descent to June lows begins. It's important to zoom out. Looking at the monthly, August's run above the May highs and the subsequent dumpster close is a case for literally anything _except_ for a continued bull run or ascent towards 5,000 happening. Most importantly, we still have a long way we can fall before we get to previous lows. The situation is shown to be more critical when examining the weekly. Long red candles abound, and if the July pivot is taken out, it can be confirmed that the next area sought will be numbers like 3,500 and below. Looking at SPX on the daily, it's important to recognize that a daily July pivot has already been taken out, already bounced, and was taken out again during Friday's NFP slaughterhouse. The various indexes and some other critical components and critical equities all trade in different patterns, but with similar or identical manifestations, occurring at different times. Everything is happening based on an order. It's not chaotic, not random, and not participant driven. Instead, price action is what drives participants. For example, based on Friday's post-market recovery of the NYSE closing dump, one is given the impression that 3,9xx has support and will not be broken. However, several different elements in other tickers all indicate that a run on 3,800 is all but inevitable. There's also unfinished business above two sets of equal highs that have been left, that also correspond to the critical psychological 4,0xx and 4,1xx levels. It's extremely notable that printing 4,0xx and 4,1xx doesn't equate whatsoever to a renewed bull run. In fact, quite the contrary. The major ETFs that correspond to SPX and Nasdaq all have options that settle each week on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. With markets closed because of Labor Day, the Monday option will settle on Tuesday, followed the next day by the same thing. This leaves many opportunities for rife manipulation and deft handling. The most important day of the week is Thursday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. Powell and the Fed are notorious double talkers. Unlike other central banks, like Japan, who tend to be clockwork-credible, the Fed will say anything as it openly manipulates global markets. Bear in mind that it was only a few days ago that Powell's 8 minute nothing speech in front of a wood panel wall at Jackson Hole sent the end of August into the sluice ditch. I believe that the most likely situation to manifest this week is an early run into the 3,8xx range following Monday's PMI data. This will encourage a lot of people to panic sell, to go short, and buy puts. Then, I believe we will quickly rip back into 3,900 and various factors will lead to a revisitation of the unfinished business at 4,0xx and 4,1xx before the week is out. You might think it's too much volatility, but we're really looking at a meager ~7% weekly dealing range, just in a seek and destroy pattern. This type of behavior gives everyone the opportunity to sell low, buy back high, and then get savagely guillotined for Thursday and Friday. The rest of September and much of October will then likely be a total abattoir, because we will revisit the pre-COVID highs, and it is going to come fast. You can set your watch to it. Perhaps we really will see 72 VIX print: VIX - 9x8 = 72 So, how do you handle it? Low risk and cash heavy. You should have been out of equities when SPX and Nasdaq were revisiting April highs during an obvious onset 21st Century Great Depression. But if you aren't, maybe you'll get a chance to get out this week. But in reality, what really happens to most people is they see it rip and don't want to miss the boat to the 4,500 moon. After all the cheap champagne wears off, one finds themselves clinging to a piece of wood in the middle of frozen water, praying to Heaven. And yet, although Heaven sees and observes all, the Gods never speak. Be careful, friends. Dark days lie ahead for humanity. The only way to make it through is to face it, and yourself, head on. Work on improving your heart and your virtue, do better with the things you have done poorly with in your personal life, and things may work out all right.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
2
Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 PointsThe more I observe price action and the more I analyze charts, the more I feel that although the markets are absolutely primed for a major and inevitable correction towards the pre-COVID highs, which for Nasdaq and SPX are far under the June lows, we're on the cusp of a preceding bear lynching. In my recent SPX call, I had forecasted a trip to the 3,8xx range early on in this Labor Day week in anticipation of everyone's favorite global market manipulator Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday with FOMC and an inevitable rate hike looming on the 21st: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws What I had thought likely to happen was an early dump, followed by a pump into his speech, and then the beginning of our correction cycle. And yet after observing the price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend (significant since they tend to lead or match with the SPX since they have a CME futures market) in addition to Monday's price action when NYSE/TSX were closed for the weekend and today's strangely simple dump-into-accumulation pattern, I have since been forced to revised my theory. I now believe that Big Jerome's talk on Thursday, September 8 is actually going to be used to propel the markets back to areas close to August highs. Taking a look at my calendar, if this theory is true and Jerome was to pump it, you'd have eight trading days to do so until FOMC. Afterwards, counting FOMC, there's still eight days left in the month to crash this plane straight into the side of the mountain all the way below July's lows as well. What's the fundamental thesis for my theory? It's simple. One is that they've been selling a lot of VIX-enhanced puts for the last week and a half and a bull run will drop VIX back to like 19 and all those puts that they sold with high implied vol for monthly OpEx will expire worthless. The second is that with VIX crushed, smart money can buy a large amount of October and November puts on the cheap for when we revisit 10,000 Nasdaq/SPX 3,500. And the third is that with the USD going rampant, Wall Street Journal reported today that foreign buyers are going full ape risk-off trying to buy US equities because their national currencies are collapsing. All on its own, perhaps it doesn't matter, yet consider that USDJPY is printing 143 and then Yen is the most worthless its been in 24 years: Japan is most significant since the Bank of Japan pays no yield on bonds and so all that old, generational money props up the US equities market as it seeks returns elsewhere. Also, the Bank of Japan's next meeting, where it really may have to finally abandon Yield Curve Control, is on the same day as FOMC: Sept. 21. If BoJ is forced to raise their rates, finally, to try to save the Yen, and the Federal Reserve does something fun like 100 bps at the same time, you really are going to see the market crash with astoundingly violent force. And if something this exciting were to happen, of course, as a Wall Street sociopath and a proper market maker, you would want prices to be high in advance, to take full advantage of the foreign market brought to you and the delightful opportunity to throw everyone off balance. For all of this to work out will require that we aren't yet at the bottom. And we're not. Instead, I believe the pattern will be some kind of support or double bottom or stop sweep established around one of the June pivots @ ~11,500. This is under the psychological 12,000 level and also doesn't totally break market structure yet. Then, to rip it in the other direction back to a reasonable level will require a number roughly like 13,400. I do not believe they will take out the August high because what will unfold is ultimately a bull trap and not a true bear squeeze or a trend reversal. Now you might think to yourself that this is too much volatility. This kind of pump is too far away, too fast. And this notion is really very reasonable. However, I want to point out that Nasdaq did better than this in March, where it ran 2,300+ points in 11 trading days. Actually, counting the first eight trading days only, it more or less made 2,000 of those points. And so, you all need to be careful. If this is totally wrong and you buy the bottom and it dies, well, it will hurt, but not so much if you keep your risk low. There will be good chances to buy a healthy gap up. Where you're likely to get hurt is bottom shorting. But the ones who are really going to get skinned are the FOMO crowd and the people who have no idea what time it is. For a few days you will have returns. And for one weekend in the middle of September, as the autumn air chills, you'll be able to enjoy martinis at the bar, feeling like you've made it back to Tesla $1,000 Apple $200 and are thinking about what to waste your future winnings on. But what comes after the Party is over will be like waking up from a dream and finding yourself inside of a concrete nightmare. Because the drive down this time won't be like January-May was. It will gap down and the Terminator will be deployed, and hard, a lot like the COVID days. But perhaps this time the Fed won't have any QE to save you with, because the intention is not to save you and keep the old Party going this time, it is to create a crisis and then save you from that crisis with a new Party composed of their technocratic paradigm of super communism.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Thinking to buy the dip? Look at the 100 years channel...Since 1929 the S&P500 climbed 3 times above the resistance of his 100 years channel. The first one was just before the 1397 recession, the second one was for the dot-com bubble, and the third one was... 18 months ago! Each time this high was followed by a crash, and a new bull market began only after the lower band of the RSI was touched. Jeremy Grantham (the most famous worldwide bubble specialist) is talking about a "supperbubble". He is known for having accurately predicted the Japan bubble in the 1980', the dot-com era and the mortgage crisis. Making money when others were panicking. The overvaluation of the stock market is well seen when looking at the Nasdaq100 35 years channel: Btw the Dow Jones Composite index is still in his channel. Hence, the bubble seams to be mostly a tech bubble. You will find right below the words of J. Grantham, speaking about his "superbubble" and the bull market of June-August 2022. "One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst," "This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern." "My bet is that we're going to have a fairly tough time of it economically and financially before this is washed through the system. What I don't know is: Does that get out of hand like it did in the '30s, is it pretty well contained as it was in 2000, or is it somewhere in the middle? The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time. But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January." And if you want to read even more, click on this link: www.barrons.com Some bulls are currently looking at the bullish cross between the 100MA and the 50MA. Daydreaming, saying that it would be one of the most bullish sign ever. Forgetting that this cross is also found right in the middle of the dot-com bubble crash and the mortgage crisis crash. To plot these charts yourself -> use a month period and click on "log" (at the bottom right) to be in "log scale". By the way I am not currently shorting the Nasdaq100. I am back in technical analysis since only the beginning of august, and I need more key elements to open new positions. I will keep you in touch when I will open its! ;)
SP:SPXShort
by Nicolas_Pradel
3
McDonald's MCD - I'm Lovin' Selling, and You Should be tooYou don't see just how highly priced McDonald's still is unless you look at it on the Monthly: I mean, this is the place that sells faux-food while CPI and PPI are through the roof, and it's still trading almost at its all time high. This is even more ridiculous than the positioning of Apple AAPL: Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird And Tesla TSLA: Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine On top of that, this is one of the thirty companies that compose the Dow, which is the most bearish of all indexes, having already retested the pre-COVID highs, which SPX and Nasdaq have yet to do. The bottom line for everyone's least favourite, but most convenient, fast food dumpster fire is that the June --> August price action, was, like Apple, just a gap fill. And now, it's time to seek new lows. And those lows happen to be, conservatively, in the $245 range. This is a fat put if you buy puts, but a "my calls expired worthless so at least I can sob about my drawdown on Reddit" scenario for Robinhood's retail fodder. I can only encourage everyone who is still long on equities to get out this week. I truly believe that we are going to see a bounce that traps bears short but snares bulls long: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws With a looming VIX 72 (hasn't done much since COVID! It's two years! It's due! Be careful!) hanging overhead. VIX - 9x8 = 72 What lies ahead, after the trap has been executed, will come fast, and viciously, and it will seem as if the world is ending. If you buy when it's high because you are still thinking to yourself that this is the old paradigm, you're going to lose at least one finger, and probably three. This world is not one where you can use magic to regrow what's lost, you know? And so what I want to say is that you should protect what you have. If you can't get short, if you can't trade puts, then get cash heavy and reduce your risk. Ultimately, what's important in life is not money, which when you die you leave behind. It is maintaining your kindness. It is harbouring your virtue. This isn't moral dogma, unless you make it moral dogma. The path through the storm is to do better in your life. Been neglecting family? Fix it. Been a bad father? Fix it. Been a bad boss? Buy the secretary flowers and tell her that she's doing a great job. Make sure you mean it. You aren't such a bad guy. Make sure you mean it. Try your best. One day, in this lifetime, when the Chinese Communist Party falls, you'll instantly understand what I am referring to. Don't leave yourself with regrets on that day. That day is too late. You have to figure it out and do well before that day. It's just like poker, where you have to place your bets before the cards are face up. It doesn't count anymore after the cards are face up.
NYSE:MCD
by LordWrymouth
Joby Aviation / JOBY - Like an AirplaneSome stocks, I've never heard of before, but I come across people talking about them on Twitter, so I decide to take a look at them and keep an open mind. That is the case with JOBY, and I know nothing about this company, nor about its financials... nor do I care about that. So long as the markets are being maintained by institutions and haven't been hot potatoed because they're on the verge of bankruptcy, I only care about price action, because I believe that charts are fractals and contain all of the combined information and intelligence of all market participants. Also, at present I am not looking to invest, because I believe there's a significant market-wide shakeout on the horizon. After that happens will be the time to build commons positions. Right now is just the time to make some trades and build cash. I hear Joby's Chief is an actual aviation engineer though, and that sounds pretty bullish in the long term. Anyways, we're (almost) in September now and the entire 2022 can count as something of an accumulation phase for JOBY. I believe it's primed to take a run over $8 based on the fact that: 1. Swept out short sellers with stops over the March high on Aug. 8 2. Three weeks of "feathery" downturn while maintaining its July pivot structure 3. Unfinished business from November and December lying slightly above a December weekly double top, which is slightly above the Aug. 8 stop sweep. I also believe the timing is _exceptionally_ good, as the monthly candle is painted like this, and is not likely to actually print like this with two days to go: I very much doubt it's going to print a big red down candle with a big long wick based on how all of 2022 has already traded at a discount. Markets at large are set for a significant downturn. However, 'ye ol' $5 stock aviation stocks can go on a 60% tear while the SPX dumps and it won't affect anything, and can provide something of a safe haven. All the same, it's set up nicely to go for a run. At least, I think if someone was to short here, they'd get themselves a call from margin, for sure. Other relevant stock calls: Enovix / ENVX - A Close Shave & Peloton / PTON - Pumpy Before Dumpy & Blackberry / BB - 'Tis No Bubbling Volcano, But 'Tis a Geyser.
NYSE:JOBY
by LordWrymouth
VIX - 9x8 = 72The recent market conditions have been strange. Post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 panic, everything went up in nearly a straight line for more than a year before SPX plinked 4,800, and then started retreating, within mere days of the commencement of 2022's calendar year. During the moon run, VIX spent ten months in an area that I regarded as a key accumulation zone based on pre-pseudopandemic trading. Despite SPX retreating 1,300 points over the course of only a few months, there was no fear. There was primarily no fear because it chopped up and down and back and forth. Even though SPX could lose 100 points in a day, it would gain it all back the next. There was a lot of volatility, but omni-directionally, and a lot of chatter about recession, but nobody was really afraid. During this period of time, notably, VIX never returned to the 18 level accumulation box. So what is VIX? Everyone knows VIX is the volatility index, but its calculated based on the strike price of a range of SP500 options traded on CBOE . Notably, all the way down throughout the year, even with January's dumps and February's when Russia invaded Ukraine, VIX never had a major spike as seen during other market corrections. Actually, it never exceeded 39, despite taking five stabs at it before the June bottoms. Friday's price action shows that the market is set for a real correction after a two month bear rally. I had some doubts about this on Wednesday and Thursday, but after seeing VIX retake 25 on a Friday, notable because Fridays have been "VIX Crush Fridays" lately, as everything melted down in good and proper fashion, I am confident the conditions have been cleared for a real bell ringer. I believe that what we're about to see is some fairly epic and violent dumps below the June lows. I foresee that a key characteristic of this coming movement is that it will happen both aggressively, and fast, which will naturally print an all new manic VIX candle. What I have had in mind for several months is that when this happens we would just see a meager VIX 50, something like a yawn-worthy and short lived fake out dump. However, when I went to examine the chart in detail, I found that VIX 50 is the spike that was printed in the two most recent pre-COVID crashes. Of course, 2008's scheme was 90, and some are projecting that "because recession" and "because inflation" we'll see something crazy like VIX 200, but frankly, I think this is a misunderstanding of where we're at in the bubble pop schematic. Despite the markets' incredible retracements this year, there was no fear. We haven't had fear yet. We're about to have fear, and it's going to come strong and fast and the propaganda machine is going to bark, and bark, and bark, all so you can panic, sell low, and get short, waiting for SPX 2,400. This will also let the options MMs sell a lot of puts at the bottom with huge implied vol premiums that will expire worthless, and then they'll buy themselves another 1,200 square miles of farm land. What I foresee actually happening is that when the target below June lows and above or slightly under the pre-COVID highs is achieved... we're looking at something like a 1,000 point dump counting from mid-August's 4,300 print. Afterwards, we'll get either the "return to normal" or a Bump and Run Reversal bubble pop pattern, one that will also come fast and strong, so that everyone can buy back higher and have the happy heading into the U.S. October Midterm Elections. Thus, I believe what we'll see VIX print is 72. It won't be as bad as COVID, and it will come up short of bear expectations and isn't going to break 2008. But it's also going to be a lot more scary than the '15 and '18 corrections. You might think to yourself that VIX 25 is too far away for this to happen so quickly, but the '15 and '18 runs to 50 all happened inside of just three daily candles. If you were getting long during this two month bear squeeze and didn't dump mid August highss, you really need to ask yourself why you have such blind faith in this Ponzi. Why do you think that you're still in the old situation where you can mash buy on SPY or QQQ or TSLA and AAPL and watch it go up in a straight line and make new highs every day without having to think or worry one bit? That's not where we are in the diagram, and it's not the situation the world is facing. The world is in a lot of trouble. Humanity's future is in a lot of trouble. And because of this, you're going to be entertained and placated with both a crashing market and then a mooning market, so that you can pay attention to the establishment narrative espoused on Bloomberg, Zerohedge, Reddit, Fintwit, and from 20-year-old charlatans on YouTube who make their money from ad revenue and not from trading. And the purpose of all this is to distract you from the real meaning of your life, which is to prepare to cultivate yourselves and to prepare to return to tradition as the Chinese Communist Party is eliminated in the imminent future. Once VIX is at 60, stop shorting and stop buying puts.
TVC:VIX
by LordWrymouth
3
UVXY and ETF ShortIt's high time we accept the new reality of the inverted reality. The week of July 25th was perhaps one of the most volatile in a long time. Why? We had CPI report, earnings, and Fed Rate Hike. What did volatility indecies like UVXY do? They sold off. It doesn't take too much logic and common sense to see something egregiously fraudulent is taking place when companies miss earnings, and their stock price rally. Or, in the grander scheme of things, horrible economic data sends markets rallying. At this point, the market has become a literal casino gambling machine with luck, not technical analysis, economic data, geopolitical issues, trends, patterns having ANY influence. It's simply a yes or no by someone or some people at the top who dictates the move of the market. I believe now that retail investors are at their smallest ownership of equities, the volatility index and ETFs like UVXY no longer really apply. Why? Institutions, computers, and algorithms can not panic or feel fear, only retail investors aka human aspect can. This is why you no longer see significant sell offs when there is bad news like a possible Taiwan invasion or conflict with the US. So in conclusion, at this point, its best to get calls on pretty much anything. AMC, BBBY, Apple and others go up without reason. BestBuy stated they would see losses in Q3, and that rallied their stock. Nothing can bring this market down, so I wouldn't even be scared about getting calls, investing and waiting as your portfolio grows even in the worst of it. Perhaps actual WWIII would send markets to new record highs. Short the volatility ETFs, UVXY, SQQQ, SDOW, SPXS, misc.. because they're destined to collapsed even if the world was on fire and there were 50% unemployment. I think the stock market is everyone's financial safety with no risks of losing money at this point.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by WorldEconomics
11
COMMODITIES (OIL ) vs EQUITIES ( DIA)In this chart, I have plotted the ratio of the price of the USOIL ETF over the DIA, which is the broad ETF for the DJI. The chart shows the USOIL ETF has been stronger than the DIA until the market lows in mid June after which the DIA rebounded while hot oil prices cooled off. The analysis would be is that oil prices may be relatively undervalued at present and so represent a potential basement sale at a time when the federal goverment just approved a vast upgrade in oil leases on federal land. If investing in big oil at this time ( like Warren Buffet) what stock or ETF trade would you be inclined to take? AMEX:USO
TVC:USOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Bitcoin to 3.7k then 250k? Fundamentals extremely bearishThe stock market will crash, it barely down 2% from this local top of 4300, imagine it going to 2900 as bottom, around a 40% crash BTC will go down so hard it is not funny anymore, Michael Burry warned that previous crashes all had something similar in common, now this cycle has ALL OF THEM. Whats more people speculate on stocks that dont justify the earning, we barely dumped and BTC is already at 20k. Winter is coming and demand for oil and gas is going UP, the DXY will RISE. MT GOX BTC 150k. Whats worse we going to close first time history montly BELOW 200 WMA. next top dom 40% btc market cap 53000 = 1t 40% of 12t = 4.8 53000x4.8 = 250k
Short
by Heartskull
3
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE AVG BEAR MARKET 120 YEARS OF DATA CYCLES We have now most likely seen the turn . we will for the most part have the Bulls staying it is a re test and a bear trap into this OCT . But it is not most of the rallies going forward until we drop in 2700 to 1890 on the sp 500 will at most be.382 to 50 % . The Battle between Inflated assets { Debt based } And Food costs due the Drought cycles and Population and coming default cycles . Did I mention the Baby boomers are at 26.7% of USA Population . and that this JAN 2023 SSA IS GOING UP A SMALL 9.8 TO 11.5 % . SO the standard of living of our children is about to break down . You will own Nothing and be happy !! . DID any of you think the war in eastern UKRAINE is about PUTIN . is is about RESOURCES NAT GAS and WHEAT aka FERTILE lands . The Water wars are set to begin . FARM LAND OIL N GAS and WATER are the only assets of VALUE . fiat money and Crypto are only used as a balance sheet . new home sale are breaking down due the steady increase of interest rates 40 year Bubble see Tulip mania and those who have a low rate are trap unable to sell as they would just be hot with the higher rates in the new purchase trapped as well as housing and stock prices over 120 of data we Always revert back to the MEAN..I have always lived by a few rules in investing my 40 plus years . 1] Never use debt in your life live well below your means 2] treat money like water in the desert 3 know that every Bull market is induced by the expansion of a form of DEBT and or the devalue of a fiat currency . to create employment to CONTROL the masses . see cares act 2020 expansion Money velocity to a total of 40 % of ALL money in US history . I learned at a young age from one of the riches men in the US from strong hands to weak and from weak hands back to strong on the CHEAP see 1907 1929 1973 2000 2007 2022 charts . I also asked him how do people get rich > He told there are two ways Inherit it and steal others people money .! he asked me what did I think So I said to him . then the simple life and man is the richest man for he does not want but to live a life of peaceful and simple for the GIFT OF LIFE n time are the true riches . I MENTION 1960 TIME VS NOW for GOOD REASON YOUNGEST USA PRESIDENT WAS LIGHT Till he Talked of the Secret Societies . That COVERT its citizens AND WAS SLAIN 3 weeks later . To Now The OLDEST US PRESIDENT A Time of DARKNESS AND DIVIDE AND CONTROL EVERYTHINK FROM WHAT IS A MALE OR FEMALE TO THE COLOR OF EACH OTHER SKIN FROM LAW N ORDER N PEACE TO HATE FEAR ALL . IN LATE 2021 I DID TELL YOU THE WAR CYCLE IS NEAR . 1917 10 % DIED in that revolution 1945 revolution 45 million died US CIVIL WAR NEAR 3% . And in Nov we will start to see a battle over the next two years with the Promises . this battle is Communism within the USA it is all based on the growth of the population exceeding. its natural growth and depletion of water . . remember this nov VOTE no matter what . if you DO NOT then stand ready to have everything you think cant happen in AMERICAN IS ABOUT TO . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !!!
SP:SPXShort
by wavetimer
4
Heavy resistance at 0.012c - expect a short term reset to 0.0083I saw heavy sell orders in Binance around 0.012 mark. Though the sell orders aren't that massive - around 50 million LINA BTC, SPX RSI shows overbought conditions, a correction is due, this will reset LINA too. Though RSI shows bottoming process in LINA, the Huobi one is most accurate, because it was listed first over there. Actual price of LINA was 0.001 during listing but we went to 0.021 on listing day then 0.005, this isn't listed anywhere on TradingView. The supply was three to four times less around 2021 Q1. at 40 M market cap we were around 0.04 price range, now at 40M cap we are around 0.01. APY fluctuated between 80% at 0.10 and 160% at 0.005, now it is 95% at 0.001, which is still good fundamentally.
Short
by Heartskull
DJI to $14,500 in July 2032?Do we revert to the 50 year mean in 2032? That would put the Dow at 14,500 in 2032 if the cycle repeats. Found it very interesting that it was exactly 50 years to get a low & bounce from the Great Depression bottom. Every mega bear market is different so IF this is the start of another mega bear market that takes us to the lower blue line on this log chart then I doubt it will be labeled "Great Depression or Stagflation". Great Depression-Lasted 3 years Stagflation-Lasted 16.5 years Jan 2022-July 2032=10.5 years (16.5+3=19.5 years and then divide that by 2 and you could conceivably say 10.5 years of whatever we will call it does make sense from a timeframe perspective). Either way, IFFFF we are in a mega bear market the chart won't look identical to either the Great Depression nor Stagflation...it will have it's own uniqueness and it's own name. For now, I'm just looking for the open weekly gaps on the DJI to get cleared seeing as those have ALWAYS cleared. Open weekly gaps are at 28,495.05 and 24,718.46
TVC:DJIShort
by Vixtine
3
US DOLLAR/ Dollar dips on FED hike viewThe US DOLLAR has topped out and now beginning it correction. This is very bullish/positive for US Stocks for a new "potential" indication set up for them to breakout on a impulsive wave up. It had touched my previous forecast of 110 as my last target. Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive approach in hiking interest rates next week. Expectations for a 100 basis points rate hike by the Fed at its policy meeting next week stood at about 29%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool after reaching as high as 80% last week. The Fed seems to be leaning more towards 75 basis points than to 100 basis points," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust. A strong start to the trading session for stocks on Wall Street fizzled out, however, as a drop in Apple Inc (AAPL) weighed following a Bloomberg report that the iPhone maker plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some units to cope with a potential economic downturn
TVC:DXYShort
by fintechwire