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SPY Cycle Patterns For Thanksgiving Week - Sideways Melt-UpHere you go. This week I expect the markets to melt upward with a couple of bottom/momentum bottom patterns as well as holiday trading liquidity. This week may see some volatile price swings, but overall I believe the US markets will continue to melt upward. As we near the end of the year, I expect some traders to try to pull out of positions (anchoring in tax losses) and repositioning early in 2023. Enjoy your holidays with family/friends. Follow my research if you are looking for more detailed analysis of the US/Global markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPX / ES - Get Ready for a Head Fake, and an OpportunityIn my recent calls, I have made predictions for Apple to set new all time highs, Tesla to print at least $250 again, and Nasdaq to 14,000. However, whenever price action fails to follow suit with expectations, one must revise, revise, and revise again the situation at hand. With this week's price action topping on Tuesday after what should have been a significant bull catalyst in the lower CPI print, causing SPX and Nasdaq to go as wild as the Dow has, it can only be ascertained that the makers not only do not want to go higher, but are likely to head lower, and they'll be in a hurry. I have been simultaneously conflicted by the fact that I do expect SPX and Nasdaq to run to their COVID lows with the fact that there isn't any news primed until December and timing is awkward with the next FOMC being a month away and US Thanksgiving being late next week. There's a significant fractal from June daily bars that's very similar to where we're at now, where we ultimately made the Low of the Year, which held until September, and then October. The problem is that everyone is expecting a dump, because although there really isn't any fear and nobody is actually positioned bearishly, the sentiment is still bearish. I said on Twitter the other day after hearing that Michael J. Burry from Big Short 2008 GFC fame said "You have no idea how short I am," that these types of guys are allowed to tell you what is going to happen, but not when it is going to happen or where it is going to happen. They're allowed to speak the truth insofar as it makes retail offside. If they were to really reveal the truth that they know, they would disrupt the markets and their access to credit facilities and swap lines would be revoked. What I mean by the above is that for retail, you're going to be baited into going hard on puts and shorts, but this isn't yet the moment of impact everyone who believes interest rates and recessions mean SPX 2,000 straight line no bounce have been waiting for. Meanwhile, although the VIX isn't showing much in the way of signs of life, the put to call ratio is as high as it's been since 2008 quietly starting around Wednesday. The US Dollar Index has also started to show poppyness after running a key low. Signals are great, but price action has to confirm, and as of now, it indicates that the indexes and stocks do not want to trade higher. Thus, what I believe and am expecting to happen is that indeed we do dump, and violently, and fast. It is imminent. Perhaps as early as Sunday futures open. It will be scary. However, what I think is that the dump will really be a bear trap. It won't go as low and it won't stay as dipped as everyone is expecting. When it starts to bounce, it will bounce a lot, and hard, and catch people off guard. This time, there won't be a retrace. Thus, what I am anticipating is for the SPX to print at least a low 3,600s tape. More likely, I believe SPX will actually trade back toward 3,500, but not take the low out. What I want to tell everyone is this: You need to stop listening to the Stocktwits and the Twitter and the Discord and the WhatsApp feeds. You need to unfollow these guys that are filling your head with notions about interest rates and yield curves. The more you fill yourself with those concepts, the more you will be manipulated into trapping yourself offside and the more you will be unable to take advantage of the real move. The more you will blow your accounts. The reason is, there is a logic behind why bear markets rally so hard. A bearish market rallies, simply put, because smart money doesn't sell low like you do. They sell high. So they sell high, buy back low, sell high, buy back low, and the market has to be engineered around this, or they won't participate, because losing money means death. The next bear market rally is going to be like 40%, and it's going to be rather impressive. Bears will be so angry, not realizing that the rally's climax is the "Big Short" they've long been awaiting. Allow me to issue my own "Cassandra": Be warned, for when all the stocks and the indexes are high again, the day the Chinese Communist Party will be thrown out from this world is during Beijing time, not New York time. It will happen in the middle of the North American's night. It will catch very literally almost everyone off guard. The limit down when the NYSE opens that day will be 15% on indexes and it won't be the bottom, it won't bounce. That day is very close. Nobody expected the USSR to fall, and yet Gorbachev and friends threw it away anyways. China's traditional 5,000 year dynasty culture is mankind's only hope for a future, and it will absolutely be not only preserved, but resurrected.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
14
The Carry OverGood morning. Yesterday's action brought some carry over/follow through from Friday, finishing the day with about a 1% gain. We have three types of patterns going on right now in the markets'. QQQ is telling us to sell, DIA is telling us to buy and SPY going nowhere. We bounced off the 20 day, stopping at the 50 day on SPX. So the question is: Is this ABC correction going to hold? It's going to need motivation if it's going to follow through on the roll over. And the CPI report on Thursday could be what tips this over. Most are saying that the report is going to be higher than expected. So if the FED is still hawkish. The CPI report favored coming in higher. Why would the markets continue higher? Only time will tell. Plan for the Day: We can still run up and visit 3850ish and be in line with our ABC correction. That's the area I really wanted to see the price action to confirm the end of this ABC correction. If there are many rejections at the 3850 area, I might want to get into a low risk short (1% of my portfolio) and put it out 4 weeks. If we trade sideways, I'll wait again tomorrow to get a better entry on a short position. If this blows through 3850 today or tomorrow and makes it's way to 3900, I'm going to sit on my hands until I see the 20 day cross over the 50. Then, I'll turn bullish. Again, be patient, stay disciplined and trade the markets in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.25% which declined from 3.45% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 55th percentile, and according to VXD we are on 30th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a stable market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 20.7% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 33385 BOT: 31160 This can also be translated as a 79.3% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 35% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 33100 70% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 31700
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by exlux
SPX500 / ES - The Faint of Heart Shall Have Fainting HeartsThe truth is that a difficult market will forge a trader (assuming you stay solvent, lol), whereas markets like the 2020-2021 bull run, which everyone so desires to reappear, do not. There is nothing to achieve by buying calls at literally any point, whether high or low, and watching it immediately turn green and run for days. Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional. This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc. The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet. But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema. The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities. The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen. To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October: And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do. However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400. Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound. Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump. Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun. After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something. But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range? What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000. I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real. The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster. I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from. But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023. If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert. If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something. The problems that lie ahead are that dire. What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally. If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early. Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short. One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule. Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
1
IWM / SMALL CAPS - STRONGEST MARKETI have a few observations on the market from last week and going on to this week. Something to note, I'm looking at the WEEKLY chart and have a longer time horizon. This is very intentional. I want to demonstrate that PRIOR to any major market move, BOTH bulls and bears will get shaken out. It is very naive to assume that you can have a strong directional bias and only see a straight line upwards in your P/L. Focusing on a smaller timeframe will result in some serious shake-outs on both ends of the market. Therefore, taking a step back and being able to see the larger picture can very much help tame emotions and see things for what they really are. Unfortunately, this is a rare character trait of the vast majority of market participants. As of the close of last week: Small caps are the strongest area of the stock market. While Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow Jones broke below their prior June lows, Small Caps HAVEN'T. See for yourself. Even though the overall trend is DOWN, this is a major signal to keep an eye on. Small caps tend to lead in the breakdowns and breakouts. Big directional moves inside a consolidation zone are not trading signals. The news on 10/13, Thursday, caused a big sell-off that was followed by a massive rally. Everyone on financial TV and social media was calling bottoms, reversals and quoting statistics. Nonetheless a one-day move doesn't mean anything without a major trend change - which takes TIME (and patience) to develop. The following day, Friday, gave back most of Thursday's gains. Here's the point - this type of price action is very normal in a sideways consolidations market. All big moves INSIDE A CONSOLIDATION ZONE can be easily faded in both directions. The June rally took SIX WEEKS to build up. Using that as an example (NOT PREDICTION), we can spend a few more weeks in this sideways chop and that would be totally okay. A fake-out move in either direction would not surprise me I've donated far too much money to the market by "going all in" on break-out trades. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a major breakout with an immediate reversal in the opposite direction. Moral of the story here is to wait for confirmation. A small position is a MUST on all breakouts, since the most powerful breakouts rarely come back to test the breakout level and we don't want to miss out on such opportunities. However, such breakouts are RARE and therefore capital preservation and risk management should be our HIGHEST & #1 PRIORITY. PERSONAL VIEW I still lean more bullish in the short-term (2-6 months), even with last week's wreck in the rest of the indices. There's too much negativity in the market among other factors. If my personal experience and observations after many years serves me well, such environment can sooner or later become ripe for a major squeeze. You don't want to fade that train. Mid/Long-term, I'm leaning bearish for another major leg down. We'll need a good rally first to entice all the bulls back into the market. When you start seeing news about "the bottom is in" or "new highs" statistics, BEWARE! BIBLE VERSE OF THE WEEK "Unless the LORD builds a house, the work of the builders is wasted. Unless the LORD protects a city, guarding it with sentries will do no good." Psalm 127:1
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by andremkv
1
Swing trade setup for Oct 20Swing trade setup for Oct 20-------I DO NOT GIVE SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SHORT. USE YOUR OWN DISCRETION I cover various stocks which can be profitable based on the stock charts and technical indicators. I try my best to explain as detailed as possible but your feedback is also appreciated Before you enter a trade , one must learn how to master the charts as Stock charts play a big role in deciding when to buy or when not to buy. Technical Trading help in predicting price movements and have a risk management. Stock trading is like any other business and must be taken seriously. Lot of people lose money because they don't educate themselves and end up placing trades blindly which results in big losses Stock charts is the major component day traders, swing traders, core traders use. Times and technology has changed and if you cannot adapt to the new methods , there is a high chance you will be left behind Millions of shares are traded now using desktop , laptop or gadgets and stock charts is what majority of traders look at. So , if you want to be a daytrader , swingtrader or coretrader learn how to read and interpret charts. There are lot of great books out there like Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of chart patterns and Steve Nison Japanese Candlesticks interpretation Having someone experienced can also cut the learning curve time for a new trader. Trading does take time and with discipline , hardwork , dedication and most importantly Passion for this needs to be there.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Composed_Trader