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Decision

BTC arriving at BIG resistance, early! but....I am bearish BUT, with bullish optimism and a possibility of big a big bull, based on current market momentum. This is actually a great place and likely place for it to pull back based on its prior pattern, but this momentum could prove otherwise. I am marking this neutral and no one wants to review neutral reviews they want to see bull or bear. The thing is we are at a pivotal point that will make the case for either a prolonged bull or bear market. I am not sure if we will break out or break down but I have painted the picture of how we are at that point right now. I will post again bull or bear once it seems to have committed to one or the other but otherwise just keep your eye on the trend lines. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here we are around $1000 less of $82.5k and we got here early. We are likely to have resistance here but breaking this line would be really significant and likely signal a parabolic crypto market to come, massive. The odds would put it at pulling back here as it has already twice in the past 4 years, and at minimum some resistance where it can consolidate potentially all the way up until late Dec before making a decision. It may still be December, but really the market feels like it might have enough fire to push through it real soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Order books have actually been fairly range bound all year, we are at the high end but its nothing that screams some large increase in participation of day trading. Per CoinMarketFlow, global order books are around a -10% ratio on a 1d candle average at above 10% depth of market. This is actually ideal as it represents day traders with limit orders that expect the price to rise and less that expect it to fall. This is bullish ATM. I have been seeing lots of alts breaking resistance and converting it to support, lots of chance for jumps. Right now seems like a day traders paradise with 25%-50% sometimes 100% runs in a single day, from lower liquidity, low circulation coins especially. Right now the fire of the market makes me think we may break the resistance and truly fly to the moon. But the fact that order books have only grown by about 10%-15% or so over the last year, does make me question the durability of the run without more gas for the fire so to speak. If BTC breaks that 82.5k and proves it as support, it is as bullish as it gets, like hyperbolic potential. On the other hand, if we resist here again, as usual, then it could be a lot of prolonged pullback with a potential absolute low between $30k-$40k probably - based on this chart you are looking at now and considering a pullback like it did the last two times. So its more of a bearish layup that looks like it has the possibility to convert bullish. I would caution to be vigilant at or near this line and let it choose first before taking any real action. As usual DYOR but consider this trendline as one of your many things to watch to help you make more informed decisions.
by EncryptShawn
edges up as US inflation print fuels Fed rate cut speculation 26 January 2024, 17:04 •EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data. •Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb. •Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision. The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early trading during the North American session as prices in the United States (US) remained above the US Federal Reserve’s goal but eased compared to November’s figures. The major trades at 1.0866 after diving to a low of 1.0812. The Euro got a life-line of a softer US PCE report The Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 2.6% in the 12 months to December, as expected on an annual basis, while core PCE dipped from 3.2% to 2.9% and below forecasts. After the data, the EUR/USD climbed sharply and clocked a daily high of 1.0885 before retreating toward current exchange rates, as the data reaffirmed investors' speculations that the Fed could begin cutting rates by the summer. The CME FedWatch Tool depicts the odds for a quarter of a percentage rate cut by the Fed at 51.4%, while 50 basis points stand at 37.8%. Nevertheless, US Treasury bond yields reversed its course, climbing higher and putting a lid on the EUR/USD rise. Meanwhile, data across the pond showed that German consumers remain pessimistic amidst economic uncertainty after the GfK Consumer Confidence for February plunged from .25.4 in January to -29.7. In Spain, the Unemployment Rate fell to levels last seen in 2007, from 11.84% to 11.76% in the last quarter of 2023, according to an INE report. Ahead of the next week, the main spotlight would be the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on January 30-31. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Following the US data release, the EUR/USD advanced towards 1.0900 but failed to break yesterday’s high, which could pave the way for a pullback to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0843. Downside risks are seen at today’s low 1.0812, followed by the 1.0800 figure. Conversely, if buyers lift the spot prices above 1.0900, as they eye the 50-DMA at 1.0920.
Long
by sniper_2022
1
What Traders and Detectives Have in Common 📊🕵️‍♀️In this article, I want to talk about the interesting similarities between trading and detective work. Like detectives solve mysteries to find the truth, traders explore the market to understand patterns and make smart decisions. 1️⃣ Gathering Clues: Both trading and detective work rely on the acquisition of timely and relevant information. Traders stay informed about market news, economic indicators, and patterns, just as detectives gather clues from witnesses, documents, and other sources. In both cases, the quality of information directly impacts decision-making. 2️⃣ Risk Assessment: Detectives must carefully assess risks and probabilities to navigate the unknown. Similarly, traders must evaluate market risks, weighing potential rewards against potential losses. Just as a detective gauges the likelihood of various scenarios, a trader assesses market conditions to make calculated decisions that align with their risk tolerance. 3️⃣ Patience and Persistence: Success in both trading and detective work demands patience and persistence. Detectives may spend long hours sifting through evidence, and traders may patiently wait for the right market conditions. Like a detective unraveling a case, a trader must persistently analyze data and adapt strategies to changing market dynamics. 🔎 In essence, trading is a financial investigation, where observation, critical analysis, and connecting the dots play a crucial role. As we navigate the market's complexities, let's embrace the spirit of a detective, ever vigilant and ready to uncover hidden truths that guide our decisions. Wishing you successful trades and discoveries in your financial journey. Did I forget any similarities? What are your thoughts? Also, what would you like me to compare traders to next? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
32
SPY S&P 500 ETF Prediction Ahead of FED Rate Hike Decision ! This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year. Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25-percentage-points, while only a 30% chance that they will hold rates steady. My prediction is that the Fed will indeed raise interest rates, which could lead to a market downturn as higher interest rates tend to slow down economic growth. If the Fed's decision leads to higher interest rates that remain in place for an extended period, it could result in lower spending and investment by consumers and businesses, which could further exacerbate the market downturn. Therefore, many investors are closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate hikes or cuts and preparing for a potential dip in the market following the announcement. According to the technical analysis chart, the SPY appears to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically consists of three peaks, with the first and third peaks being of similar size and the middle peak being the highest. Based on this pattern, my estimated price target for the SPY is 390. Based on my analysis, I would buy the following PUTS ahead of Fed's decision: 2023-7-21 expiration date 390usd strike price $5.05 premium I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
12
How not to miss an opportunity. I found out about Bitcoin many years ago when it was in prime time only to be associated with organized crime , scams, and money laundering. And that remained deep in my mind. Since jail seemed a bad idea, I convinced myself that crypto it’s not for me. As time went by, I didn’t see the good fortune because my mind was still relating Bitcoin to a dark area . Something kept me from buying and I didn’t know what. As I was on the dark side, I am now thinking that the ones who listened to another side of the story, the winning side, greatly benefit from it. Later I found out that psychologists have a name for my burden and it’s called Anchoring bias . It is described that first introduced knowledge on a subject has a great impact on our later decisions . The first details I come upon Bitcoin unconsciously affected my judgment and kept me in a do not act state of mind and made me miss my chance. That’s when I found some ways to improve my decision-making process and to look at data from another perspective , which I am going to share with you. But first, let’s take a glimpse at anchoring bias, an error of our mind present in many aspects of our lives, which usually works against us. Picture yourself in a shop on Black Friday. Would you buy an item for 150$ and how would that make you feel if you knew that it was discounted from 200$? We tend to look at the price of 200$ as an anchor that quickly drives our behavior to a decision to act. Similar to adjustment bias, comparing the 200$ item now seems like a bargain. The same thing happens in trading. How do we know whether a stock is overpriced or not? By comparing it with past quotations that act as an anchor. Is BTC overpriced at 20k? We all would agree that in 2017 it was, but how about now? These anchors make us act unwisely and take unconscious decisions with small returns. This could lead to unsatisfying results, frustration, or wipe our account over the long run. Once you get better at identifying the anchoring bias, you can use it to your advantage. Think about what makes good and strong support & resistance. The perception is that a large number of investors credit that bid as a fair value for them. So what should we do? T o have a better understanding of what drives our choice it’s important to double-check our mindset, emotions, and the data that we encounter. Does it help us or it could be a potentially harmful anchor? What is the context of the news? In the example above, could we consider solely that 150$ is a fair price, without the 200$ price before the discount? Also, if you have a strong assumption about a subject, try to look at other points of view, not to change your mind but just to reinforce the reasons you already have. Remember that the first step into overcoming a bias is to be aware of its presence and next just look inside you to find proof that drives your decisions. So, let’s recap Find context - Figure out if the price you set for your buy order is a fair one or if you find it good compared to the day before. Find anchor - Do I want to invest in this company I have never heard of before just because my cousin thought it was a good idea? Observe - Do I have doubts about this buy? Do I follow my plan or I am unconsciously driven to make this purchase Review - Have I looked at other oppions?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheSimpleThinking
GER30 Sideways for the bullsPotential sideways for the bulls 12430 became a new low for GER30 right now at 14200 consolidated but the bulls won’t give up that easily. Bollinger bands showed a push up that the bulls has a push up potential to go sideways, anyways big fall and the war still going at ukraine. Now GER30 is now getting the experience but need the bulls to take over.. in order for bulls to break 14500 structure area.. then on the way to recent highs. Don’t think the big fall will happen for GER30 since the new floor had been made. Watch reversal happens , trade carefully. If the zone area breaks pass below 14000 area it will melt bad Also if the recent high breaks then on the way to new highs.
GLong
by JoyBoyVegae
NAS DECISION Should be hitting 200K this year but the war at ukraine and Russia is down hell worsen. Chief general told Biden the only way to stop Putin is to get in a war with them in ukraine but big warn will start WWIII. Other hand NAS100 is in a difficult situation (we all seen this broken structure before and it won’t be pretty). If it drops then buyers should expect around 14770 area for the dip and bullish sideways.. if not then crash will be coming and drop even lower. If bulls are in control then should hit 190000 pass the resistance line BOS. If didn’t then a retracement even along with the crash. Please please trade very carefully. We will see breakout bullish soon if not bearish will take over; watch the way it moves while trading
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
SHIBA is at a deciding point!Shiba Inu is right now forming a wedge which will decide the midterm trend. We already saw a breakdwon but then we came back into the wedge. The probability for a break to the upside looks higher, because we have a pattern on the smaller timeframes that broke to the upside! The bullish target is 90 and the bearish 50 whatever quintillion of a cent. But the fractal of the correction right now looks a bit bearish so we might see a wickoff. Im staying neutral. Hope you learned something!
by HenrikDaCrypto
1
Back to the BTC Decision LevelBTC 50-56k, are we here again already? Everyone is asking the question, which way this time? Will this hurt as much as it did the last three times? Will we have a double peak like BTC had in 2013? Currently I'm leaning 70%/30% long. The purpose of smart money is to accumulate dumb money, and distribute it to themselves, so we should always do our analysis with this fact in mind. Dumb money operates based on emotion and inexperience, smart money manipulates this process to guarantee their place at the top. If you look back at the last three times we were at the 50k BTC level, we had a nasty fall and anyone who was long got burnt. Dumb money will not soon forget these past experiences, which is why the smart move for smart money is to instead go long this time around. The question in my mind while looking at the charts today was, "will the price action at this level today be a reflection of market sentiment or a smart money manipulation?" I'm 70% that this level will reflect price reality this time around, which means a break to the up side. 30% chance it will drop from this level. My reasoning is as follows: 1. If you look left on the chart, the Labor Day drop in September was an obvious manipulation by smart money. The week long "education" we all got that El Salvador was adopting BTC nationally while prices rose on low volume over the weekend was such an obvious setup for a drop on market open Tuesday anyone with experience could see it. There is always doubt in any situation, but as you can see from my last post, I spent most of the time analyzing why I though it would drop in price. 2. The level we are at over this weekend is prime real-estate for stop hunting by market makers. We are just above the Labor day short entries which is where 10k-20k FUD's would have places their stops. This is also a signal that this level is a fake break of resistance, common stop hunting, but I think the smart money manipulation was on Labor day. A Labor day fake-out drop to stop out any Moon boys. **** Stop hunting could also mean just that, this current level is nothing else but hunting stops and could continue downward.*** 3. If you were paying attention, the Wyckoff pattern that showed up from March to May at the 64k highs repeated again during August - September, but this time around after the initial Labor day drop, reversed itself to our current level of 53k-56k. This setup was again too obvious as everyone spent the the months following the drop back in May learning all about the Wyckoff methods and absorbing all the social media postings pounding it into our heads. To easy to see that reversal coming. Would smart money simply let the herd win on the 2nd reveal of the chart pattern? Doubtful. 4. The ferocity of the upward move from $42k has happened in just 10 days. When smart money makes a move, it moves quickly, locking many out of the market. Why would I pay 52k for something that just last week could be had for 42k? 5. On the 1-hour chart, you can see the price testing 55k rapidly, which on low volume usually means it will break the opposite direction, in this case down. However, if you look at the 4-hour chart you get a different picture. The move up a couple days ago did hit a high volume of sellers at 55k but the next two bars closed up in the green on medium volume. This usually indicates a lot of momentum to the up side. If the two bars following that long green bar up were red, it would indicate strong selling. The tests of 55k over the past two days on the1-hour seem to be happening rapidly with little retrace. This usually indicates that price will resolve at this level and continue up in the same pattern that happened at 48k a few days ago. 6. I have yet to see the media call a climax of buyers into the market. Normally at market peaks when smart money is selling, the news will be universally good drawing sheep into the market to offload their money into the pockets of smart money. Every channel will be universally saying, "Bitcoin! Its a new paradigm!" Instead from March to May we heard nothing but, "China is banning BTC, the US government is going to crack down on Crypto! Run for the hills!" This is not the kinda of news that marks a market top. How is smart money supposed to offload their Crypto to you when every news outlet is saying the end is near? That is the kinda of news that sounds like big institutions trying to mark price down so they don't miss out on the big run up. 7. The 10 year log chart still looks like we have more to go before this halving rally is over. When in doubt, go long. You'll probably make your money back eventually. 8. CoinBase stock still looks like its in an accumulation phase and could break upward for another test of $280 resistance. Thoughts on a possible drop: 1. As previously stated, this is a perfect level for stop hunting, so maybe they are just hunting stops over the weekend before continuing down. 2. The 1-hour chart says to me 56k will be tested again Sunday or Monday on low volume and then drop. However, never make a trade on one chart resolution, with one indicator. 3. The monthly chart does look like a bear market, but this last 10-day run-up looks like a break out of the downward trend to me, or at least a sideways trend on the log chart below the 50% mark. Short Conclusion: 1. If the price breaks up above 56k I would expect the 1-hour and 4-hour chart to continue a low volume test of 56k again with continuing higher lows, and then quickly smash through that level on high or medium volume before Monday open. I would expect the price to quickly close the gap from 56k to 64k this week. (70%) 2. If its going to go short from here, I would expect at low volume test of 56k again (looks like it already did this) and the price starts to drift down slowly below 53k on low volume Sunday. Then when traders are back on Monday morning the drop to happen fast and furious like September 6th. (30%) This post is for educational purpose only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by swineninety9
1
ADAUSD Price Comes to DecisionImportant things to note: We have not gotten our 50MA test yet. Price coming to another decision. Long wicks tells us price will move up temporarily. A break from temporary trendline will signal fall to lower price level. 1.91 price level will be hit hit price falls, 1.71 might be hit. Chinese Govt hates BTC (we already knew that) Important Dates to Take Note of: ADA Summit Sep 25-26 2021 (likely to produce more important dates) So we have not gotten our 50MA test yet and price looks like it is coming to another decision. Anything can happen so I am not going to say we will not get our test at all. We can see long wicks which tells us the price is likely to move upward if only temporarily. We also have a temporary trendline and a break from this level will signal a move to the downside which is the 1.91 level. The next stop after the 1.91 level would be the 1.71 level. I do not see the price moving below this right now but we will see. On another note, the Cardano Summit is tomorrow, which I am attending. Hopefully I can grab some limited edition NFTs and I'm sure there will be a lot of news coming out that may be beneficial for ADAs price. I am not going to guess what impact this will have because we don't know. However, I am going to let you all know what happens at the summit so you can know what's going on. In other news, the Chinese government threatens to ban BTC for the 1000000th time. Honestly, it doesn't matter long term in my opinion, people will find a way around all of this like they always do and it is likely to create alternative mining and markets all over the place. Anyways, that's my two cents. I will continue to watch ADA and let you all know what I think. Thanks again. I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it. Tell me what you think? This is not financial advice. DYODD.
KRAKEN:ADAUSD
by mysticalwalrus
18
POLITICAL HELP? VOLUME COULDN'T HELP! - NAS - DAILYDespite the huge volumes, we have observed forces pushing the market down. Here the technical analysis is just a confirmation of what obviously happen in the real world, no bias. The market has responded to the volumes multiple pushes with clear candle sticks announcing that the probability to see the price going down is very high and won't stop yet. The positive side, is that if there is any political action to save the company, then, we could see the market first trying to fill the past gape and run very quickly, thereafter, to the range that it has left at the beginning of the year, around the end of February. For the moment, it looks like a probable worse case scenario...wind up, bankruptcy...or other. September will be a very important month in Europe as all holidays end and political decisions might be taken in regard of the extension of restrictions or their ease.
OSL:NASShort
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
4
DECISIONS FROM MIDDLE OF COMING WEEK - SBS - 240MN - MY IDEAThank you for your likes! Very Appreciated! Please Share also to help as many people as possible. Enjoy! _____________________________________________________ We observed that after a long run down the market have found some power to stop the fall. The market now moves in a range. We observed that the tops are lowering while the bottoms are increasing and doing their pullbacks on an increasing support line. Monotone movement up and down in this range will see its end during next week. Probability of seeing more explicit moves from the middle of the week. Maybe first signs will show up from Tuesday. Decision: -Line are broken and you follow the trend -Wait until market reaches back the resistance line to enter Short on a pullback down or Long on a significant break up. Question triggering the community: - Is it the right time to buy Brazilian Share? Leave your comments on what would be your answer?
NYSE:SBSLong
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Pennant, decision?Looks like a pennant trying to break up/down... Usually a pennant is a continuation pattern (Much stronger then a symmetrical triangle), if bulls get enough volume, the might be able to turn things up, but I see very low buying power, and thus I thing we will continue down... Thus Below 9400 we are going to continue the break towards the 9100... but if the bulls win this, they will push it towards the lower part of the bigger symmetrical triangle which we broke not long time ago.... so I would guess that above 9540 we will reach towards at-least 9800... I prefer to go with the bears this time, lets see how it works out.. #short#currentprice9475 entry: 9398 tp: 9480 (a bit above the middle of the pennant) TPs: 9140, 8800, 8300, 7800, 7300 and I will have 10% left to run more until I feel enough is enough...
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Hedgehog_king
2