Will a break at 13,300 push the DAX30 CFD up to all-time highs?After bullish performance over the last week of trading, there seems to be a higher chance of a slow start into the new week.
Due to the “Veterans Day” bank holiday in the US, the US Fixed Income Markets will not be open for regular trading hours, indicating that trading volume will be lower than on average. That’s noteworthy because of the fact that yields have been a principal driver of price action in the last days, and with no impulses to be expected from this end, volatility should stay low.
From a technical perspective, the picture in the DAX30 CFD on H1 stays bullish and the Long sequence stays intact as long as the German index trades above 13,100 points. Only a break lower would darken the technical picture from a short-term perspective, activating the region around 12,970/13,000 points as a first target.
On the upside, the region around 13,300 points stays in focus: a break higher could initiate a Short-squeeze to around 13,500 points in the days to come. One main driver here could be the small expiration in DAX options next Friday. Data from EUREX shows an elevated Open Interest of Short Calls around 13,300 points and then around 13,500 points, meaning that a break above 13,300 could trigger a wave of market participants being in a need to hedge their Short exposure by buying the DAX.
Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/
Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Dax30long
DAX Long Target reached Hello to all watching my charts.
As a lot of yours wanted to get from me information about Risk/Reward trades
i will try it here in Dax as sample.
New Long has been the Mode after the break of last resistance
at 12914.
Target has been the old high 12975 which has been reachin during
the trading day.
RRR = 2.55
Good trades.
if you want to support my work, please like them
My analyes here are all NOT a request to buy or sell
seomething. Allways do you own research.
Renkotrade
DAX Short as Forecasted Break 12885Hello to all watching my charts.
Dax is since the decision level break and
break of
12885 short
I have shown you the levels again in the chart.
The short run has now increased...
Good trades
If you want to support my work , please be so kind and like them
-
My posts are not and advice to buy or sell something
always do your own research
-
Renkotrade
----------
Dax DEU30 Long Here are the Marks to Watch for tomorrowMajor Support (BLACK) 12900
Lower Level Support (BLUE) 12885
Major Resistance (RED) 12975
Good trades
If you want to support my work , please be so kind and like them
-
My posts are not and advice to buy or sell something
always do your own research
-
Renkotrade
DEU30 DAX Long in My TrendchannelHello to all watching my charts
Dax DEU 30 climbs step by step and our by hour
to higher Levels.
Fine that my forcast has been 100% correct..
Hope you are in.
At the moment for today Support Level to wacth is
12840 for further long-
Good trades
If you want to support my work , please like them
-
My posts are not and advice to buy or sell something
always do your own research
-
Renkotrade
DAX30 CFD bulls are likely in charge of the action till the FEDAs expected, the ECB's key interest rate decision last Thursday didn't provide any significant volatility in the DAX30 CFD. And, with the economic calendar being thin today, it's difficult to see significant impulses on either side.
Currently, the German index has stabilised between 12,800 and 12,900 points, but this is on an Hourly time-frame above 12,600 points with a clear bullish tendency.
In fact, given the latest news around the massive liquidity injections from the FED, conducting nearly 65 billion USD in overnight repurchase agreements and another 35 billion USD in repo operation last Tuesday alone, it's difficult to see Equities come under serious pressure in the near-term, especially with the FED rate decision taking place next Wednesday.
The reason for that: since 1980 research shows a clear bullish tendency "Pre-FOMC", not only in US-equities, but also in the DAX30 CFD. That's especially true with a flattening US-yield curve and volatility being solid. Here, on average, nearly 80% of all profits in the S&P 500 were made within eight days leading up to the interest rate decision.
With that in mind, and the DAX30 CFD trading above 12,800 points, another push up to last week's and current yearly highs around 12,920 has a higher probability than a push lower and test of the region around 12,600 points.
Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/
Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
DAX DEU30 LONG exact like Forecasted in the ChannelDAX is in Long Mode since 15.10. and runns up
in my channelsystem like it should.
The shorttime forecast is exact in the middle of
the longtime forecast channel, so move is straight
gone up in same manner since 15.10.
Please have an eye on the lower BLUE marked trendline
Short only by fall below that line at 12730
Stopp Long if the blue trendline is broken !
Good trades
If you want to support my work please like them...
and if you want to know more about my trading style
please send my a boardmail.
I am just started yesterday a blog, the design
must be finished , but the infos you are ableo to
find here.
www.patreon.com
Good trades
If you want to support my work please like them...
and if you want to know more about my trading style
please send my a boardmail.
Renkotrade
Renkotrade
DAX DEU30 1 HR Long End of 20.10.2019Hello to all watching my charts,
I am back here with a new analysis of german Dax Index
on a 1 HR view.
We have a very nice long setup since 10.10. and i do hope
everybody have seen that.
Thats in my midtime channel (blue) nice to see.
Of course such a strong rally cant last forever and has to be paused
sometimes.
Since yesterday we have such a phase
but if you check my shorttime channel (turkis green)
it still long.
So all which cried "short" at 18.10. are now faked out.
Please remember some of my rules:
Dont trade what you want to come next
only trade what you do see in the trading channels.
Good trades to all.
Renkotrade
A simple and optimistic trend idea on DAXHey guys! First time publishing an idea, please bear with me. :) I don't know if this idea is kind of obvious or blatantly ignorant, but I'm just doing this to learn. I'm open to any criticism.
So this idea is basically based on the longer term channel (thick purple lines) VS the shorter term wedge (thin purble lines). I believe there's a high probability that the price will not move outside the long term channel. Therefore, it should continue in upwards direction once it bounces off the line.
The short term wedge isn't reliable by any means in my opinion. If on Monday 21st the wedge breaks immediately, I believe it will follow scenario A: The price will move towards the blue dash resistance level into a retracement until it bounces off high term channel line (Entry Point 2) and shoots towards year high (green dashed line) and perhaps beyond. Scenario B would occur if wedge meets channel border, in which I believe it will still break and creates Entry Point 1.
I believe Entry Point 2, whether scenario A or B occurs, offers a safer approach since it would have been confirmed that the long term channel theory is holding. Furthermore, it's a bit farther away from the support level (red line). If I were to swing trade this, I would set TP at year high (green dashed line) and SL at the red line support.
If I were to approach Entry Point 1 I would still use the red support line as SL. There's less wiggle room here but I believe that's more appropriate considering we wouldn't have confirmation on the long term channel theory, therefore it has a lower probability to succeed.
Elliott Wave View: Bullish Sequence in DAXDAX shows Elliott Wave bullish sequence from August 15, 2019 low (11266.48) favoring more upside. The rally from 11266.48 to 12497.28 ended wave (1) as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. On the chart below, we can see wave 3 of (1) ended at 12471.83, wave 4 of (1) ended at 12141.82, and wave 5 of (1) ended at 12497.28. Index then pullback in wave (2) and ended the correction at 11877.32.
Index has resumed higher and broken above wave (1) at 12497.28, signalling the next move higher has started. Up from 11877.32, wave ((i)) ended at 12097.43 and wave ((ii)) ended at 11933.02. Expect Index to see a few more highs before ending wave 1 of (3) a 5 waves from 11877.32. Index should then pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from October 4 low (11877.32) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. We don't like selling the Index.
DE30EUR Possible reversal/retracement of recent bearish dive.After the steep bearish movement of the DAX it bounced on MA200 on Daily and created a bullish pinbar. On the 4h you can see that it is at historical resistance (from early september). it seems to be pushing up into the resistance and the RSI suggest bullish momentum. A break above 1200 could mean a bullish move up to MA200 on 4h or even up to historical resistance at approximately 12150-12170.
Bounce continues, but how farWe saw a nice bounce from lower resistance on $DAX on Friday. I believe we could be in for a trend day on Monday taking us to 12.155, if we manage to break through that area we could see another test of the top of the trend channel, but I find that unlikely. I might try a long Monday morning depending on how it opens, but will definitely look an opportunity to short once we see development at 12.155.
German DAX Primed To Reverse?The German DAX has retraced into an interesting cluster of support which is worth being aware of. Recently, the market has risen into a consolidatory phase which produced a triple top. The third top was followed by a sharp retracement and that’s where the market stands at the time of writing.
The following Analysis Points (APs) will guide you through some of the significant properties of this chart.
AP1) In determining levels where this retracement may end, firstly consider the Fibonacci division shown. These are the green horizontal levels. The range is defined as the vertical distance between the point labelled ‘A’ and the point labelled ‘B’. Clearly, the market retraced as far as the 0.5 level and found some support there. It has started to rise but hasn’t yet reached the 0.382 level again. It’s possible that the retracement has completed as a 50% retracement and the prior uptrend will resume. It’s also possible that the support from the 0.5 level will only be enough for a minor bounce, after which the downward move will continue, perhaps as far as the 0.618 level or more. Further investigation can give a clearer picture.
AP2) The next point is based on the concept of angular symmetry. Observe the angle of ascent between the low at point X and the secondary low at point Y. They are connected by a red solid line which is projected out into empty space. When that line is copied and, crucially, the gradient is kept constant and projected from the low at point A, the resulting line intersects the 0.5 retracement level at exactly where the market reversed in the cyan circle. This is another source of support, adding to the strength of the price barrier.
AP3) A similarly interesting result is obtained by applying a similar method to a different range. The angle of descent is taken between point Z and point A. Notice that this is the range from a high to a low rather than a low to a low. This means the first purple line is representing the average gradient of the whole move between points Z and A. As before, when that line is copied exactly and projected from a different point, this time the high at C, the resulting line intersects at the same point as before in the cyan circle. This degree of confluence is already creating a compelling case for a reversal from the cyan circle.
AP4) Moving on, look at the final upward swing before the retracement. This is the range between the low at D (just before the 3rd peak of the triple top) and the high at B. When Fibonacci divisions are applied to this range, notice that the 1.618 extension coincides exactly with the closing price of the lowest candlestick so far. Also inside the cyan circle, this adds even more support. Horizontal and diagonal overlays from four different sources now are all indicative of a reversal coming from the cyan circle.
An important observation is that each of the overlays shown so far could have been constructed long before the market came close to the cyan circle. As soon as the high at B was in place, this analysis could have been done and one could have been aware of the potential support coming from this area.
With this degree of confluence, it is very likely that this will be a very strong support level from which there will be a significant reversal which, it appears, has already begun.
As a final thought, consider AP5.
AP5) The vertical purple dashed lines divide the recent price action into two sections: the upward progressive section, and the downward corrective section. Assume that the price will continue to rise and that the retracement is complete. In that case, the whole cycle can be thought of as beginning at the low at A and ending in the cyan circle. This whole cycle would have lasted for 106 candlesticks . Of those, 65 were spent in the uptrend section which lasted until the high at C. That means that ((65/106) x 100)% of the time was spent in the uptrend. This comes out to be 61.3% which is roughly the Golden Ratio, phi, expressed as a percentage (61.8%).
#GER30 #DAX #DAXINDEX #Trading Outlook; where are we heading to?Dax has opened on monday morning with a expected pullback Move, but how far will it retrace or will it go sideways?
Daily stoch and daily RSI are telling us since many days that past uprun is running into exhaustion as the oscillators are turning down starting to leave high levels.
We have major key levels that we can easily watch and manage our Risk From without being attached to any economic bias.
On a makro view a possible bullish perspective key level to watch is the major lower trendline. A Break of it would give first insights that makro upward trajectory is totally broken.
But until this happen Dax Index has given us in the past many opportunities to play Fibonacci Retracements to the Upside.
The current Dax Posture tells us not to blindly short the Market it is rather telling us to derisk Any Long Trades and lock in Profits which you might gained during this Year and derisk your Stocks (especially DAX Participants).
Also What gives the Dax a higher probability to go Sideways or decline with a slow pace is that many Dax Stocks have already had their major declines over the past weeks and Months and playing some kind of bounces trying to find buyers but according to current Dax Posture I also would not say that we will not see some lower major german stock prices.
Anyway shorting with prices trading with a rather narrow range to the daily 200EMA and daily 200SMA is not the Trade i am personally looking for.
If you are asking yourself which Fibonacci Retracement Level will be the best to manage your Risk of i can tell you following.
Looking at the daily RSI we are nowhere near any long entries on DAX and personally i am not allocating any eurocent to German Companies at this high Oszillator Levels.
Looking at the past i want to the RSI go back to 0.618 or 0.786 Levels which would go in confluence with chart prices and chart Fibonacci levels around 0.382, 0.5 or even as low as 0.618.
Choose your entries wisely and trade safe!