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Cyclestudies

Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis: - **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump. - **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while. - **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom. Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.** - We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable. - **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater. To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over. - The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure. - Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD. If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve. Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Altcoin 2025 bullrun cycleI think it is no secret to everybody that Bitcoin and Altcoins (including ETH) are very much correlated. But they do have a certain lag in impulses. On the chart you can see altcoin market cap vs Bitcoin market cap (High values). As you can cee, Bitcoin had a new All time high which is ~53% higher than the previous one, while altcoins didn't manage to break the Total market cap ATH. But percentages are not the only thing interesting to us. We are also interested in the dollar delta between them and which one is higher. We only have two major bullish cycles to analyze, therefore any conclusions made frome them may not guarantee that next bull run will be similar. First thing I could notice is that capital flows as follows: new money coming into market first boosts bitcoin and when it goes into its parabolic growth state, Bitcoin market cap is higher than that of Altcoins. And as you can see on the chart, when altoin market cap surpasses bitcoin, it means that most likely that capital inflow into crypto slows down. And most likely it signals near beginning of an overall bear market. I think we should closely monitor this and be ready to start selling when the two lines close once again. Another point of view is the next ATH for both bitcoin and Atlcoins. As I predict in , for bitcoin the next ATH will be around 115-200k and therefore mcap will reach around 3-4 trln. This means that ATH for altcoin mcap will be around 4-5 trln and be ready when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D becomes lower than 50%. Let's see how this turns out. And by the way total mcap doesn't define each altcoin growth so each coin needs to be analyzed separately.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by AlexLukyanin
What Is Money Flow In & Out of a Stock? And Why Should You Care?Professionals often speak of money flowing in or out of a stock, but how can that be if there is an equal number of buyers and sellers? It is because “Money Flow” comes from the balance of the lot sizes. There are four possible positions in any one stock: Buy Buy to Cover Sell Sell Short Each investor and trader in the stock has their own separate agenda. Each may come from a different Market Participant Group. There are now 9 Stock Market Participant Groups, starting from those who buy first, at the bottom of a new upward cycle: The giant Buy Side Institutions who invest Mutual and Pension Funds and/or create ETFs and other kinds of stock market derivatives. The Sell Side Institutions, aka the big banks and major market makers Wealthy Individual Investors Corporations Institutional/ Pro Traders High Frequency Traders (HFTs) Small Funds Individual Small-Lot Investors, Investment Groups and Individual Retail Traders Odd-Lot Investors Buyers are anticipating that the stock is going to move up. Their stock order types span the spectrum, for example: Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders. Buy to Cover Orders are placed by traders who sold short and are now taking profits. Those who are selling the stock are anticipating that the stock is going to move down. In an uptrending stock, this is profit-taking near the top of the run. It can also be similar in a downtrending stock because the seller is afraid that the stock is going to move down more, and they have been holding through what they thought was a short retracement. Most of these stock order types will be “Sell at Market” (SAM). Sell Short Traders are anticipating that the stock is going to move down, and they can place a variety of orders just like the buyers. Both Buyers and Sell Shorters are entering the trade, while Buy to Covers and Sellers are exiting the trade. It is the mix of these different types of buying and selling coupled with the kind of investor or trader and the size of their share lots that causes money to flow in or out of a stock. If the buyers are mostly large lots and the sellers are mostly small lots, who is in control? The buyers purchasing large lots . This is because, at some point, there will not be enough small-lot sellers, and those who are Selling Short will turn and start Buying to Cover, creating more of a shortage of sellers. Consequently, this will put more pressure on the buy side. There are always latecomers to a stock run, and they are usually small-lot buyers. As the stock moves up in price, more of the small-lot buyers will step in, pushing the price up even further. Most small-lot buyers typically use a “Buy at Market” Order, which is the worst kind to use to control the entry price. As the stock moves up further in price, the last of the Short Sellers will panic and Buy to Cover, causing the stock to gap up or jump even higher. This then triggers the large-lot buyers to start selling for profit. As profit-taking begins, the stock dips in price. This causes the odd-lot buyer, who is the last in the market participant cycle to buy, to rush into the stock and buy because they have been told to “Buy the Dip.” By now, the news media has been talking about this stock and its great run. Consequently, the odd-lot uninformed investor finds the dip irresistible and buys on pure emotion without any analysis of the stock. This causes the final gap up and exhaustion pattern. Now, while all of those odd-lot latecomers are buying, who is selling to balance the equation? Market Makers are Selling Short and the Smart Money, who were the first to enter, are selling to take profits. Suddenly, the large lots are now shifting to the downside, and what happens? The control switches to the sellers who are moving larger lots. Now, money is flowing out of the stock, yet the price may go up briefly before a downtrend develops. Large lots are usually wiser investors and traders who know more than the other investors and traders. So the giant Buy Side Institutions investing Mutual and Pension Funds, who have access to information often not yet available to Individual Investors and Retail Traders, are called the Smart Money. It can be assumed that the smaller the lot size, the less the investor or trader knows and understands about the market. As smaller lots move in, a shift of power occurs due to the large lots moving to the sell side, and thus money shifts to flowing out of the stock. As the stock collapses and reaches a price or equilibrium near a base or bottom, those smaller lots who held through the collapse reach an emotional point of extreme pain of loss and begin to sell in panic. In response, the Smart Money and Market Makers switch roles again, Buying to Cover their profitable shorts and buying to hold as the stock moves up again. Summary: Every time you take a position in a stock, there are also three other positions in that same stock. You need to be aware of each of these and make sure that you are with the right group. Most of the time, traders who are having problems with their trades are simply trading with the wrong group. It is important, then, to learn about today's stock market structure and what I call the "Cycle of Market Participants." When traders can trade with the flow of the Smart Money, they have a decided advantage.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Apple - High & Intermediate Term AnalysisToday, we look at Apple utilizing a variety of techniques: Divergence, MAC & Cycles. We need to keep an eye on the quarterly, monthly & weekly bearish divergences that are occurring. They have not yet triggered, so bulls don't have to worry (yet). But we must keep our eyes on these divergences, because if they trigger, they imply significant downside ahead for Apples share value. We take a look at the MAC and see that there is a case to be made for some further upside this week, and based on todays state of the indicators, longs are favored on any pullbacks to the MAC on the Daily chart. Cycles show a bit of a mixed bag of possibilities. I'm most interested in the Decennial pattern and the APZ's. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tradius_Trades
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy. So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs? It turns out, they do. Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now. The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX. The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
ICEUS:DXZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
SP500 : Bearish : Similar patterns with the pastLook carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?! In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months; In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level: 1-Jackson Hole Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs. 2-NVIDIA long awaited: Result: The action disappointed and went down Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%. Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others... Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up. Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price! I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
SP:SPXShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Does the USA sill have something left in the tank?With the recent news of the FED being close to a new rate cut, it's important to start considering the possibility of the market going even higher. However, it's hard for price to keep pushing up when it's already overextended. Not saying this doesn't happen because it does. Price does tend to break the rules of statistics, given the irrationality of people. However now that most stocks are currently in an uptrend, it's hard to believe this performance will continue for much. It's likely that several stocks will begin to start forming downtrends, pushing the percentage of stocks in an uptrend down. When looking at the chats, the cyclicality of growth spurts is quite notorious. However, not every time that a down turn in the index is followed, the vast majority of stocks being in an uptrend. Although this does tend to happen, as I've circled here in many examples. However, other examples don't show this same pattern and instead see price move even higher. This is because using the percentage of stocks in an uptrend as an indicator is not painting a full picture. Even if many stocks being going into downtrends, the force and extent of which these trends form is what actually drives price action in the index. So we should expect several stocks to begin underperforming in the next couple of days. But if the stocks that have just recently entered an uptrend keep providing strong results, it's still possible for the index to keep on going higher. The direction of the index will depend on the strength of the new form trends and the soon-to-be formed downtrends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things. Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa. When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
INDEX:MMTWEducation
by DarkMessiah777
June seasonality pivot approachingOne of my big technical analysis passions is time analysis and time cycles, and I tend to follow them closely. Some of these are very helpful when in combination with other TA, to find reversal points at any given time frame, even though I don't do intraday trading, so I focus on big swings, though bigger time frames. Bitcoin's periodicity is remarkable, and we can generally find important pivots points during seasonality shifts. One of these season shifts occur in June and has been occurring for the last few years, marking the start of important swings. This seasonality shift is generally very powerful and has the power to mess with some other lower time frame cycles, such as the 60 day cycle, so at this specific time of the year we should expect some LTF cycle non-sense. This seasonality pivot is expected around mid June, so a lower low is expected around that time. Around the seasonality pivot we can look for price targets with other techniques. Past 45º trendlines, and Elliot wave theory targets are some of my favourite ways to find support levels. As of now, my pivot projection lies at mid June within the 50-55k range. More accurate EW targets can be determined once the current high is confirmed.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LittlePhi
1
The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull CycleHow Much Longer Will the Good Times Last? In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks. The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle. I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year. The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving. Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle. At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI") I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by StockMarketCycles
3
Global Liquidity Cycles vs Bitcoin CyclesIn this analysis, we will compare the Global Liquidity Cycles with Bitcoin Cycles on the weekly timeframe. The top pane shows the Bitcoin weekly price, while the bottom panes showcases Global Liquidity and Bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin tops (the bottom pane) are highlighted in red with a level of 75+ and the bottoms are highlighted in green with a level of 15 or lower. In the middle pane (second up from bottom), we can see the global liquidity cycles. The tops are shown with values of 90+ and the bottoms are shown with a value of 30 or less. The vertical gray lines help to illustrate how the global liquidity cycles align with the Bitcoin cycles. The bottom two panes include projections into the future, with values projected with a 4-year and 8-year offset. This analysis allows us to understand the projected cycles for the current market top, with the middle of 2025 as the market top for both the global liquidity and bitcoin. It's fascinating (and a blessing) that Bitcoin aligns so well with global liquidity, enabling investors with knowledge of these high-level cycles to better time the market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by thefluffyones
5
The Digital Economy Ushers in A Long Term Bull Market CycleI received my CMT charter long ago, when chartered market technician candidates could write a thesis that had potential to change the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis. It did and it continues to serve me and my students well. It was called "Cycle Evolution Theory" and my specialty is in the long-term cycles of emerging displacement technologies that change society, the economy and the stock market. So this is an especially exciting time in the history of the stock market to be teaching trading and investing, during a major shift I have been preparing my students for over the last few years. The stock market is rallying to new highs as a NEW Bull Market is underway. There will be minor retracements from time to time, but the long-term uptrend has begun. The Bull Market Cycles of the past have lasted about 13 years. Cycle experts believe this Bull Market will last longer because there are over 20 new technologies moving into the Market Acceptance Phase all around the same time. It’s not just Artificial Intelligence. Several new technologies are changing the economy of the US to a DIGITAL Economy, the first in the history of all the various economic types. A Digital Economy derives its primary growth and expansion not from manufacturing, not from consumer buying of products and services, but from the STOCK MARKET. In this new economy, the middle class may get left behind if they don’t learn how to use trading and investments to maintain and build wealth. See the attached NASDAQ:IXIC NASDAQ Composite Chart that shows the long-term bull market cycles of this index using the DPO indicator on a monthly scale. The Cycles show: the topping and Peak of the 2009–2020 Bull Market. a second extreme Peak in 2021 after the speculative run up out of the shortest bear market in history due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. the intermediate term correction in 2022. and now a new Trough is completed for the beginning of the next Bull Market. The Bull Market of the late 1980s to the year 2000 was extremely steep for the NASDAQ, as it had the 6 new technology industry stocks of that time as components. The Bull Market of 2003–2008 was not a new technology market period but a Real Estate Market boom, so the NASDAQ had minimal gains. The Bull Market of 2009–2020 was created by the new technology of the Cloud, Platform as a Service (PaaS), Software as a Service (SaaS), the Internet of Everything (IoE), sensors, semiconductors, electronics, and more. This next Bull Market has 20+ new technologies. When there are new technologies coming to market, there are the best opportunities for trading and investing in the stock market. PLUS, there is always a silver lining to a global pandemic cycle, and that is the empirical historical fact that after every major pandemic, there is a growth era of new technologies, new social reforms, and new approaches to problems that lead to widespread economic prosperity. A pandemic is very similar to a World War in its impact on social norms, health, government, the distribution of wealth, education, and individual identity. Most of the 140 industries in the US financial markets will be impacted by a huge number of displacement technologies. These are far more extensive and disruptive than in the new technology era of the 1980s–1990s. Learning about these new technologies will help you trade or invest in stocks with knowledge and confidence in the next long-term Bull Market. How many of the 20+ new technologies coming to market can YOU name? The stocks of companies who are working on or using these new technologies and that are poised for dominance in the next bull market cycle will have Dark Pool accumulation patterns concentrated at the trough of the next upward cycle. So I've referenced some of the posts where I've featured these patterns below. Trade Wisely,
NASDAQ:IXIC
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
Pro Trader Patterns for Swing TradingThis important exchange has been doing very well with options and futures contract sales. NASDAQ:CME had a classic pre-earnings run up fueled by professional traders swing trading, out of a platform support level. The retracement was only a sympathy move with retail knee-jerk reactions due to the fear around the stock market at this time, not an indication of the company's earnings report or growth potential. The stock is not at its all-time high level yet, so it can run further before slamming into strong resistance. On the monthly chart, it has a Double Trough on DPO, which is a strong indication for the stock's long-term cycle.
NASDAQ:CME
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Bitcoin -> Maybe A Little OverextendedHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . On the weekly timeframe you can see that Bitcoin is approaching a massive previous weekly support zone excatly at the HKEX:32 ,000 area which is now turned extremely strong resistance. However you can also see that weekly market structure is massively bullish, in my opinion we already saw the bottom of the bear market, so I am now just waiting for a short term retracement before then I do expect the next weekly rally towards the upside. On the daily timeframe you can see that Bitcoin just recently broke out of the symmetrical triangle as predicted in my last analysis - I am now just waiting for a retest of the previous resistance area at HKEX:28 ,500 and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside from there. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by basictradingtv
34