BITCOIN Will the Channel Up hold or has the Fed condemned it?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an impressive sustainable price action within the Channel Up pattern since November 12, which despite yesterday's Fed fueled pull-back, is still holding. If it holds, it may follow the same pattern that it did exactly 1 year ago.
As you see, it was again in November 2023 that it traded within a Channel Up, which was supported by the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since October 11. After it broke out, the price reached the 7.0 Fibonacci extension level from the October low, before correcting again.
The situation is very similar today, the 4H MA200 is also holding since Oct 11, the price also formed a 4H Golden Cross on Sep 18, while both fractals started their impressive rallies around the same date (Sep 06 2023 and Sep 11 2024 respectively).
As a result, if the 4H MA200 holds, we can expect BTC to target the 7.0 Fib ext next at $135000.
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Cryptocurrencysignals
BITCOIN Next top is going to surprise you but it SHOULDN'T !!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another benchmark, the psychological level of $100k. The market cap is growing and many claim that it can't keep rising as the capitalization would be at unrealistic levels. For one capital inflows seem to be very comfortable right now with BTC investments and there are still billions waiting at the side for the right investment in 2025.
Fundamentals aside, Bitcoin's historic patterns and price action gives us even more reasons to expect (much) higher prices and a Cycle Top that could surprise many.
** Fibonacci Channel Up **
First of all, we've plotted a Channel Up starting from BTC's first Bear Cycle and displayed the Fibonacci retracement levels on it. As you can see, those fit perfectly and catch each Cycle's tops and bottoms very accurately:
1) June 2011 Top on the 0.618 Fib. November 2011 Bottom on the 0.0 Fib.
2) December 2013 Top on the 1.0 Fib. August 17 2015 Bottom on the 0.382 Fib.
3) December 2017 Top on the 1.0 Fib. December 2018 bottom on the 0.5 Fib.
4) April 2021 Top on the 0.786 Fib. November 2022 bottom on the 0.236 Fib.
** Pi Cycle and MM Bands **
Then we have applied the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which are key trend Resistance and Support levels respectively, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which are also historically almost the absolute Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Bitcoin's main upward force.
** Covering at least 4 Fib ranges **
As you can see, all Cycles broke above at least the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) before making a Top. The first two Cycles even hit the MMB SD3 above (red). Also each Cycle has a proportional Fibonacci Channel level range, covering at least 4 Fib bands (as described above). Cycle 1 covered Fibs 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 and 0.0. Cycle 2 covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 3 also covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 4 covered Fibs 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236.
** Surprise Top **
The MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) is now below Fib 0.618 and it is less likely for BTC to hit it since Cycle 3 didn't. As a result, it is possible that the next Top will be on Fib 0.5 at best (maximum). If that is succeeded towards the end of 2025, and assuming that the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) breaks by then as it always has on every previous Cycle, that gives us a target range for the next Cycle Top within $250k - $350k!
Do you still think that's unrealistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ALTSEASON This is why you shouldn't delay buying alts any more!Our last Altseason call was exactly two months ago (October 18, see chart below) which turned out to be the exact level that the new rally of the total crypto market cap (excluding top 10) started:
As you can see, the current Cycle (2022 - 2025) displays incredible resemblances with the 2014 - 2017 period. Their Accumulation Phases during the transition from the Bear Cycle to the Bull are very similar, with the Pivot trend-line initially acting as Resistance and then turning into Support on the first Bull Flag formation. That was the pattern that pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, tested and held the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, which was what gave us our accurate buy call 2 months ago.
Even the RSI and MACD fractals between the two Cycles are identical, with the RSI bottoming on the exact same pattern and the MACD forming a Bearish-into-Bullish-Cross pattern while the market was forming the Bull Flag.
Right now we've entered the Parabolic Rally phase (green Channel Up), where the market should continue to rise without major pull-backs towards the -1.5 Fibonacci extension level. Besides that level, what signaled the market top in January 2018 was the RSI forming a Triple Top and the MACD forming its 3rd Bearish Cross. Use those as additional indicators for exiting with huge profit.
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BITCOIN The Volatility Index points to strong consolidation nextLast time we analyzed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX), was 4 months ago (August 22, see chart below) and was an extremely successful projection as we took advantage of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) bottom and predicted the $100k Target, which recently got hit:
Once more, we decided to seek the (mostly) negatively correlated patterns of VIX (chart on the right) to determine BTC's (chart on the left) price action in the coming months.
Based on VIX's Channel Down, the fact that it broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is rebounding indicates that BTC may be entering a weekly consolidation phase. As you can see on VIX's chart, every time it broke below the 1W MA50 and started rising, Bitcoin entered a multi-week consolidation phase that sometimes was quick and others many months in length. Its 1W RSI is also at a level that relates to all those consolidation phases.
In our opinion this consolidation has more probabilities of being similar to December 04 2023 - January 29 2024, as the post August 2024 rally resembles more the rally that started on August 2023. This highlights the high degree of symmetry within Bitcoin's 2-year Channel Up.
If it continues to replicate that huge Bullish Leg, then we might as well see the rally peaking upon a +195.27% rise again. That could target $145000 by May 2025, which technically would also be marginally above the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, similar to the March 11 2024 High.
So what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to enter a multi-week consolidation now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ALGOUSD Bull Flag giving a new opportunity to buy.Algorand (ALGOUSD) posted last week its first red 1W candle after an impressive rally of 5 straight green weeks since the U.S. elections. This rally technically stopped on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), as although it crossed it, it failed to close the 1W candle above it, which resulted in last week's rejection and red candle.
The 1W RSI turned from extremely overbought (+85.00) to about turn just bullish below the 70.00 barrier. The last time we saw a similar price/ 1W RSI behavior was during the November 2020 - February 2021 rally. As you can see, both started on Bull Flag formations that initiated those impressive rallies that were supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
When the February 08 2021 1W RSI hit 85.00 and got rejected, the price started a new Bull Flag pattern that by June 21 2021 hit the 1W MA50 and after forming a multi-week Support base, it rebounded again aggressively. The whole sequence from the November 2020 rally to the November 2021 Top was a +1200 rise.
We expect a similar development and as the dominant historic pattern of Algo seems to be a Channel Down, the next rally can complete a +1200% rally just below the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line) at $1.200.
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BITCOIN The three Expansion Phases of the Cycle.We have talked about Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hitting the $100k Target on numerous analyses and one of those was almost 4 months ago (August 26, see chart below), where we introduced the 2-year Channel Up, which has been the dominant pattern since the very beginning of the new Bull Cycle:
That piece of analysis was on the 1M time-frame but today we will examine it from the 1W perspective as the horizon narrows. We have made some slight modifications and the one that stands out is that we've classified it on Expansion Phases.
The key characteristic of those was the mid-Phase consolidation, which on the previous 2 took place within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range, while the 1W RSI also turned sideways for the first time since the Channel Up bottomed.
With this marker, the consolidation phase is easily identifiable and according to it, we are currently on once. As a result, we can assume that we are within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range of Expansion Phase 3. This indicates that there is still plenty of room to rise. Based on that, a $150k Target is technically plausible before Summer.
So do you expect to reach 150000 so fast, if we do at all during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze »» LINK| Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario🔍 Technical analysis: Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario - 1D
📣 BINANCE:LINKUSDT currency on the daily timeframe touched its targets in accordance with the analysis presented earlier, the scenario of the first of 3 bullish waves.
🟢 Chainlink touched its target after breaking out of the short-term descending channel.
🟢 It is currently in the supply zone on the daily and weekly timeframes.
💎Given the bullish momentum, this bullish leg, after breaking the supply zone, will have the ability to grow to the large supply zone of $60-$100.
💎In the first step after breaking the supply zone, the target will be $38 and $55.
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LINKUSD rally similar to 2020/21 has started.Chainlink (LINKUSD) gave us a fantastic bullish break-out on our last call (October 01, see chart below) as it was pretty much expected based on the 2020 Cycle fractal:
Based on the chart above, our $53.00 Target remains for this Bull Cycle (4.382 Fibonacci extension) but if you want to trade shorter term, the dominant pattern right now (until broken) is the Channel Up that started after the June 10 2023 bottom.
Having formed a 1D Golden Cross just 2 weeks ago, we can see the resemblance of the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up with the previous one, which was also confirmed after the last 1D Golden Cross was formed on October 12 2023.
The similarities are evident even on their 1W MACD sequences and as that Bullish Leg rose by +361.50%, we expect a similar pattern. This gives us a short-term Target of $40.00.
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SUIUSD Explosive channel Up targeting $7.000Last time we looked at Sui (SUIUSD) we called it in a figure of speech the "Solana killer" (October 29, see chart below), projecting that its current Bull Cycle will be like SOL's 2020 - 2021:
On the current analysis we view SUI on its own on the 1D time-frame and on a much shorter-term horizon. The dominant pattern has been a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and the dynamic that stands out is that during every Bullish Leg, there has been a +138.89% rally.
Technically the rally is initiated after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross and right now we are on the 2nd successive one. As a result, being supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect at least another +138.89% rally from the recent Higher Low, thus targeting 7.000. As you can see, that is on the 0.786 Channel Fibonacci level, which hasn't been broken since August 13.
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MANAUSD a 1-year parabolic rally is starting. DON'T MISS IT!Decentraland (MANAUSD) almost touched its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week, following the bullish break-out above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line 3 weeks ago. This is the last confirmation it needs before it validates the Cycle's parabolic rally as the 1W MA200 was were the price was rejected on March 04 2024.
This sequence resembles the bullish break-out pattern of August 03 2020 that also turned the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support and after a consolidation, by late December 2020 it initiated the parabolic rally.
This rally rose by +3390% before the first correction back to the 1W MA50, so if MANA continues to repeat that previous Cycle, it can rise as high as $18 before it corrects. The 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals also highlight their striking resemblance, as both are rising on Higher Highs on a Bullish Divergence against the price's Lower Highs.
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BITCOIN This is why $250k is a Cycle Top candidateBitcoin (BTCUSD) is now cruising on the Bull Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. We got the final confirmation as it broke above and now established the 1st Standard Deviation from Above (grey trend-line) of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) as the new Support.
Having already broken above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance, every time BTC flipped the 1st SD into Support while above the ATH, it hit at least the 2nd SD (orange trend-line) before the Cycle Top was priced. This level is currently at $181700 but rising along with the trend
What adds a more specific dynamic to the potential Cycle Top though, is that during Bitcoin's 11-year Higher Lows trend-line growth, it posted rallies of at least +1719% on each Cycle. As the Cycles progressed and due to the Law of Diminishing Returns, this rally started lower each time.
This shows the great significance of this rally and as a result, on the current Cycle with can estimate from its very bottom (November 2022). This suggests that we can reach at least $250k before or around the time the 2nd SD is tested. In addition, all Cycles have topped after the 1M RSI makes contact with its historic Lower Highs trend-line.
So what do you think? Is $250k a strong candidate for a Cycle Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze »» Link | Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D
- It has been moving in a downward channel on the daily time frame.
- Currently, with the failure of the descending channel, in the case of a pullback to the ceiling of the channel or the range of 12.50, it can have the target of 16 to 17 dollars in the first step.
- This ascending wave is the previous wave. But in a longer-term perspective, wave 2 correction in the green box range has ended.
- Therefore, this recent motivational wave, micro-waves, wave 1 out of 3 is rising.
💎 In addition, this increasing wave can continue to climb up to Fibo 1.272 and 1.618 if the supply zone is broken.
⚠️ Note: If the candlestick closes below the 12.50 zone, the bullish scenario is invalidated and can retest the green box zone. ⚠️
💎 Currently, according to the momentum, the first scenario or the bullish scenario is more likely.
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BINANCE:LINKUSDT
GALAUSD This pull-back is a great buy opportunity.Gala (GALAUSD) gave us an excellent buy signal on our previous call (August 23, see chart below) as after some consolidation, it rebounded aggressively to its 0.786 Fibonacci and hit our 0.0600 Target:
This week's pull-back may be aggressive but so far is only a technical correction towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Its recent Golden Cross with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on November 30, is the first such formation in 1 whole year (last one on December 05 2023).
As you can see, the two fractals are not identical but share certain symmetric similarities (also on CCI terms), so it is possible for this pull-back to reach as low as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and then rebound.
Even though the March 10 2024 High was priced on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, our next Target should be within the 1-year Channel Up (until broken), so we will be aiming for 0.11500.
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Alikze »» ROSE | Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario
📣 BINANCE:ROSEUSDT In the daily timeframe, according to the analysis presented earlier, the Rose currency encountered demand after correcting to the 0.23 Fibo area, which continued to grow in accordance with the movement path to the supply area.
🟢 In the daily updates, it was also mentioned that a bullish flag was formed, which had a growth of 74% as much as the flag bar.
🟢 Currently, in the daily timeframe, it has also had a movement cycle to the supply area of 13 cents, considering the current momentum.
💎Therefore, considering the momentum, it can continue to the red box area (supply area) with a pullback to the green box area.
⚠️In addition, if the price enters the LVL Invalidation area, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.⚠️
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Alikze »» SUSHI | Reverse head and shoulders pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Reverse Head and Shoulders Pattern - Reversal Motivational Wave
- According to the analysis presented before , after filling the FVG gap, wave 3 continued up to the 0.47 range of the 100 Fibo zone.
- After creating demand in the range of 100 Fibo, it has encountered a motivational wave.
- It is currently in an uptrend, which has faced a temporary correction after breaking the supply zone.
Due to the upward trend, it can encounter the bottom of the channel and meet the demand again and continue its upward trend until the next supply area.
- This upward trend can continue in the range of 1.56.
💎 Therefore, by breaking the supply area (red box) and after pulling back to it, it can continue its ascent to the next supply area.
⚠️ Note: In addition, if this modification touches the "Invalidation LVL" area, the ascending scenario will be invalidated. ⚠️
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BINANCE:SUSHIUSDT
BITCOIN nothing to stop it now! Can top anywhere inside 250-400kMore than 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following Bitcoin (BTCUSD) idea, which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
We made the last update on this chart last August (20 2024), where we called the end of the 5-month correction since March and the start of the new Phase (final Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle.
** The key hold of the 1W MA50 **
The key for that call was the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held twice during the August sell-off and supported. As you can see, on all of BTC Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has been supporting post Halving and never broke until after the Top and the start of the new Bear Cycle.
** Symmetry of pre and post-Having **
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as 400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
** The 1W RSI series of Tops **
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, having dropped from a massively overbought 88.50 High (March 04) to a practically bearish 45.00 Low (September 02). As this chart shows, BTC tends to top on levels similar to the first 1W RSI of the Cycle, so there is still a lot of way to go before it tops, especially if it follows the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, which had four almost symmetrical such Tops.
But what do you think? Are you also expecting Bitcoin to top anywhere within a $250 - $400k range? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOGSUSD (1 Day) LongDOGSUSD (1 Day)
Dogs have formed a “flag” pattern. We will consider a long position upon breaking through the flag channel and consolidating above it. The target is 0.001! A break below 0.0005 will cancel this scenario.
The author’s opinion may differ from yours! Keep this in mind and consider it carefully before making any trading decisions.
Your reactions are the best support for my work
Alikze »» APT | Forming a head and shoulders pattern - 2D🔍 Technical analysis: Forming a head and shoulders pattern
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the daily time frame.
- After the touch neck line and also the failure of swing and poleback to it, it has continued its growth up to the ceiling of the channel.
- Currently, an AB=CD pattern is formed.
- In addition, a head and shoulder pattern is also observed in the daily and weekly time frames.
- Therefore, it can have another growth in the middle of the channel after a temporary correction, up to the area of the width and roof of the channel.
💎In addition, it can continue its growth until the next supply zone after the failure of the supply zone and pullback to it.
🚨 Note: The support area of 6.25 is the validity area of the analysis, if the candlestick stabilizes below the area, the bullish pattern will be invalidated. 🚨
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BINANCE:APTUSDT
JASMY Emerging 1D Golden Cross can send it to 0.0900JasmyCoin (JASMYUSD) has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up on the 1D time-frame and it currently more than halfway through its new Bullish Leg. Ahead of its first 1D Golden Cross in 1 year (since November 23 2023), the price is pulling back today below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This is exactly the same kind of pull-back the previous Bullish Leg had on February 22 2024. As a result, we can use this opportunity to buy at a lower price and target 0.0900. Technically longs are valid until the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross (was an accurate sell signal on June 09 2024 and March 05 2024).
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Alikze »» POWR | Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario
📣 BINANCE:POWRUSDT is moving in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame, currently in the upper area of the ascending channel.
🟢 It is currently testing the current supply area, which can continue to grow up to the specified range of 88 cents with the support of the middle of the channel and the green box.
🟢 Considering that it is in the third ascending step or C, it can break the current supply area and continue to grow as wide as the first channel to the second channel.
💎In addition, if the green box area is broken, the blue bar can act as the next support to cause demand.
⚠️If a correction occurs and the green box area is broken, the price should not enter the Invalidation LVL area, in which case the bullish scenario will be invalidated⚠️
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BTCUSD LongBTCUSD (1 hour)
Bitcoin may form a "flag" pattern, we will consider Long when breaking through the figure channel and fixing above it, target 109k! Cancel and break below 101k
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BITCOIN Where were you when it broke $100000 ??It is officially history! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) finally broke the ultimate (until the next one!) psychological level of $100000. A price tag that was discussed as myth/ desire/ utopia not so many years ago. Perhaps the level that will go down in history as the future global currency's transition from its retail to the institutional phase (thanks Blackrock!) and on its way towards an eventual mass adoption (Amazon, X, Netflix and others are you listening?).
Well this post isn't an analysis. It's a festive one, a well deserved round of victory for HODLers who ignored for so many year the pessimists, the negative ones, the "Bitcoin is a scam", "Bitcoin is a fraud", "Bitcoin is going to zero" ones and kept holding. And those who will keep holding until perhaps $1000000? Who knows? Who can now deny it??
Well, lets have it. In the future you are going to hear the following a lot.
"Where were you daddy/ mommy/ grandpa/ grandma, when Bitcoin broke $100000?"
Indeed, and it will be a valid question. This will be bigger than the classics of why didn't you buy Amazon, Google etc in the late 90s/ early 00s. Or Gold in the early 1900s (yes great grandpa, that's for you!).
So let's wrap it up and this is a call for all of you to answer it and make a fun discussion in the comments section below:
" WHAT WERE YOU DOING WHEN BITCOIN BROKE $100k??? "
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