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EUR/USD Soars After Softer-Than-Expected U.S. Inflation DataThe EUR/USD pair jumped to fresh two-month highs on Thursday after the release of lower-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation figures as it favors the case of a less aggressive Fed at the December meeting. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0130 area, 1.2% above its opening price, after bottoming at a daily low of 0.9935 earlier in the session and having struck its highest level since mid-September at 1.0159. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October Consumer Price Index figures. Headline CPI inflation advanced 0.4% in October while the annualized rate came at 7.7%, much lower than the market’s expectations of 8% and decelerating from September’s 8.2% reading. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, printed a 0.3% monthly rate while the annual rate came at 6.3%, below the 6.5% expected. As a reaction, markets are now building a stronger case in favor of a 50 bps hike from the Fed at the December meeting. According to WIRP, market participants are currently betting on 80% odds of a half-percentage point hike, while on Wednesday, those probabilities stood at 56%. The U.S. dollar weakened against most peers, weighed by a strong pullback in Treasury yields across the curve. The DXY index is shedding around 1.3% at the 109.00 area. On Friday, the Federal Statistics Office of Germany will publish the October consumer inflation figures, which can have some additional impact on the shared currency. From a technical viewpoint, the EUR/USD short-term outlook has improved as its indicators are gaining ground on the daily chart. The RSI stands above its midline and heads north, not giving signs of exhaustion yet, while the MACD printed a higher green bar, indicating that the buyers are in the driver’s seat. On the upside, having broken above 1.0100, the EUR/USD following resistance levels could be found at the September and August monthly highs of 1.0197 and 1.0368, respectively. On the other hand, short-term supports are seen at the 100- and 20-day SMA at 1.0030 and 0.9907, respectively ahead of last week's lows at 0.9730.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
ZZZzzzZZZzzz at 3800Good morning! Here we are, Election Day has passed and we get the CPI report tomorrow. Couple things about the Mid Terms. Generally, the markets like it when Democrats have partial control and Republicans partial control. The expectations are, that the Republicans will win the House. If that happens, that could be a good thing for the markets. At the time of writing, Republicans have 199, Democrats 172 and 64 are undecided for the House. Gotta see how that plays out. Because here's the thing. Let's say the Republicans take the House and the Democrats keep the Senate, the markets might actually like that. And with Big Tech taking a beating after all these earning announcements, they're low enough to bid on and that could push the markets higher. Whoever that dude at Morgan Stanley was last week, saying that we could see 4000 or 4100 in the near term, might actually be right if it plays out this way. But remember, longer term, we have significant headwinds and this is still a Bear Market. CPI report is accumulative, like a moving average. If you add up all the monthly CPI numbers, it gives you the annualized CPI. It's going to stay high because at the beginning of this year, we were seeing CPI numbers at about 1%. So when we add all these monthly's up, we're going to get a high number. Obviously, over time, this will come down. Which is why expectations are to get to 4% by early Q2 or abouts. So, if the Republicans' don't take the House, and the CPI report is hot. What does that mean for the markets? Well, we could head back down starting tomorrow or Friday. Either way, these are two possible outcomes that could play out. Plan for the Day: We're technically still in No Man's Land but with a slightly more Bullish lean right now. IF I decide to chase this up to 4000, or 4100, I will do so cautiously and wait for an exhausting point in the rally. We might just hang out here at 3800 today until all the results come in and then tomorrow we could see the true direction. I'll sit on my hands again and just watch the market. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
🔴 XAUUSD : Inflation Data (CPI) effectAs you can see, the price took the second scenario and entered its 4-hour Bearish Order Block yesterday with a strong move towards the $1719 range, and this caused the price to reject from $1722 to $1702, That is, with this scenario, the price dropped by more than 200 pips, but it has not yet managed to consolidates below $1704, and according to the previous analysis, the important condition for a further drop and reaching our desired targets ($1695 and $1675) is consolidation below this price! Be careful these days the market is more tense due to the US Congress elections and you should be more careful in taking and managing your trades ! 🔴 CPI (m/m) : USD 🔴 CPI (y/y) : USD 🔴 Core CPI (m/m) : USD 🟠 Unemployment Claims : USD 📌 Waiting for Inflation Data of this month! 📎 Usual Effect : ‘Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency! 📒 Why do we care ? Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate ! The Main Analysis before Updates : The Caption of it : As you can see, the price with a Spike growth yesterday caused a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that caused by liquidity Void , this range is from $1675 to $1708, in such cases different scenarios can happen that the final result Each can be shared! This means that in the first scenario, if the price consolidates below $1710 and it closes below $1704 , we can expect this gap to be filled and the price will fall to $1695 as the first target and $1675 as the last target! The second scenario is growth again up to the Bearish Order Block (from $1719 to $1729) and then reject from this level! The third scenario is growth up to LMH (the highest price recorded in the previous month) to collect liquidity and then a powerful rejection from this level! Decision making based on each of these scenarios is based on the trigger at the moment! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.10.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
Looking at price action on AUDUSD following CPI reportsInflation is one of the key factors in FED's decisions. It is expected to move the market every time it gets released, especially now that FED is watching. Previous CPI was on 13/10 - 0.6% against 0.4% forecasted. There wasn't any directional move on that day, just liquidity sweep on both sides. Before that, another report came out on 13/09 - 0.6% against 0.3% forecasted. Price broke out previous session's high before the event and dropped massively with its announcement. So far, this is a never-look-back level. On 10/08, there was second of only two reports this year that turned out with negative surprise - 0.3% against 0.5% forecasted. There isn't any immediate low or high breach worth mentioning, the price just rocketed through everything in close vicinity. However, as I marked with Yellow line, there was a significant swing high in 60 days period that was breached only for price to return below it and never look back after. I am adding daily chart below with all of the reports. From the daily chart, we may conclude that CPI report has a tendency to create Monthly or even multi-month Lows and Highs. Just in the latest 60 day window, the highest price was September's CPI, the lowest price in that window is October's CPI. With the exception of June, the reports always created a significant High or Low or were or were only one day away from it. Most CPI candles also exert visibly above-average movement and like to take on liquidity in close proximity to the price. A negative surprise (inflation lower than expected) would likely lead above 0.655, perhaps up to 0.66, but is unlikely to change the trend. This would, therefore, be another highest high for months to come. A positive surprise could quicklu steer the price below 0.625. I don't think it will go back up on positive surprise, it looks like that would high resistance run, because the price has provably tried to go there and failed on Wednesday's London session. It dropped instead and following New York session made another attempt, yet did not even beat London session there. Legend: Lines: Violet - Monthly Highs and Lows Dark blue - Weekly Highs and Lows Cyan semi-transparent - Daily Highs and Lows Cyan dashed semi-transparent - New York Midnight Yellow semi-transparent thick - estimated liquidity area Other: Purple channel - Single Print, price went either down or up without any overlaps on higher timeframe charts Yellow, blue, ted rectangles - key forex sessions, first three hours
by OrcChieftain
GBPCHF;PM SUNAK TO ATTEND SUMMITThe British-Irish Council summit will be attended for the first time in 15 years by UK Prime Minister Sunak. On Thursday, the Tory leader will also meet with his counterparts from Scotland and Wales to repair relations. According to Bloomberg, the UK government is also in favor of reducing the surcharge on bank profits to 3% in order to maintain the sector's competitiveness. A survey released on Thursday, British home prices dropped in October for the first time in 28 months, and the rising cost of mortgages threatened to further stress the real estate market. The October reading was the first negative reading after 28 positive monthly readings, showing that national house price growth was "grinding to a halt," according to RICS. While economists anticipate that the recent calm in the financial markets may offer some relief, it may be premature to predict that lending rates will decline.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
CPI DATA SCENERIO 2 (RISE IN CPI DATA)Scenario 2: - Lower inflation printing than 0.4% - Dollar weakness - Bullish gold, equities and even crypto - FED weakening stance - Hints of slowing rates for DEC and months to come If inflation prints lower than that of the prev month of 0.4%, we will be looking at bullish continuations in gold as the institutions have already priced in their buys from the lows. As they have received news before hand that the prints will be lower at 9:30pm with FED pivots in play slowing rate hikes to 50 BPS in months to come. Breaking above the all time resistance of 1730 KL could signify a change of market structure of gold if accompanied with low inflation prints.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea: Sell Gold at Market Reasoning : Looking at bullish momentum to continue on DXY on the backdrop of strong support at ichimoku SSB zone.The hourly shows a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern as well. So on that looking to sell Gold at resistance zone 1711-1714. CPI figures could give volatitly so be careful on stop loss. Entry:1707.85 TP:1678.83 SL:1719.55 RR: 2.48 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Signal_Centre1
XAUUSD longThis fancy pair has reached an overbought level - short term speaking. Two immense bullish candles and the retracement has already started. For the second big move, price may retrace to 0.5 level for a nice 50 pips target - buying opportunity. 50 pips is enough! However, in terms of the whole move that started approx. @1617, the price may retrace to black Fibo drawing which is in confluence with major former resistance level - if this happens it will be a great retest opportunity if we see long wicks to the bottom and not big red candles!!! Also, the 1675 area is a high volume one with possible OBs lying there for strong bullish reaction. Targets for the big buys -> 1713 area. Reminder: Gold has broken bearish daily trend line and has overcome many resistance levels by hunting retailers of course. Even a 1657 area touch - trendline retest for continuation back up is possible. Waiting to see your ideas in comments. Goodluck!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by The_Forex_Path
What is happening to Bitcoin and Crypto?!! Wow.... I think that yesterday is a day that no one was expecting and was ready for! As we are seeing Bitcoin making newer lows due to the bad environment we cannot tell what is about to happen next. But we have some data to look at. We are seeing that BTC wallets with 10k BTC are making a new ATH and they are not getting liquidated. Most of the people are interested in opening a low the moment BTC hits a newer low resulting in a strong bounce back up. The DXY is on the edge of falling down just like the Yields. Tomorrow the CPI numbers will get released so expect even more volatility in de markets. Trade safe and don't let emotions take over your trading decisions.
by Mynameisnotrelevant
USDCAD:BULLS TAKE CONTROL AMIDST CPITreasury yields recover from the previous day's losses as worries about China's economic slowdown and US government gridlock combine. The government is continuing its zero-tolerance policy, and the severity of the cases isn't showing a similar correlation, so the chances of China reopening have shifted to the downside. With the most recent addition of 8,335 for November 2008, China reports the highest levels of new COVID cases in six months, while also marking a new virus-led lockdown in Guangzhou's second district. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, there is a 35% chance that the US economy will experience a recession in the coming year. The extreme difference between the desired inflation target and the current inflation rate, the aggressive tightening of Fed policy, and the extraordinarily uncertain conditions in US domestic politics and geopolitics are the causes of the rising recession fears. The US dollar index (DXY) has since printed a new seven-week low at 109.35, showing a less assured pullback
Long
by TradeyMarkets
Be careful when buying EURUSD Today, we are looking at the Daily timeframe on EURUSD. It's very important to know what is the main move, especially when trading the lower timeframes. The trend on the Daily chart is pointing to the downside and it's more likely to continue in the same direction! Tomorrow is quite important and we may have some decent setups to work with. This upside momentum that we had in the last 3 days, can easily continue but it's also very important to notice when there is a reversal! That's why you should be careful when buying. The coming days are key for price action!
by ForexTrendline
6
USDCHF: Dollar Steadies Ahead of Midterm ElectionsAs the risk aversion theme is gaining steam, the powerful US dollar index (DXY) has renewed its day's high at 110.40. The S&P500 futures' modest gains have been reduced as risk appetite declines. After Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed), provided hawkish guidance, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury increased to 4.23%. Investors are currently preparing for the release of the CPI report for October. Aside from this, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that money market futures anticipate the US Federal Reserve will raise rates by 50 basis points (50% chance of doing so, 48% chance for 75 basis points). The outcome of the US midterm elections will have a big impact on the powerful DXY and show how stable the political environment is for the economy. Consequently, the race for 34 Senate seats and 435 House of Representative seats will be closely watched. The markets kept an eye out for policy cues from China, a major trading partner, to see if it was thinking about easing up on its zero-Covid policy.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
1
DXY consolidating, but watch out for the next move!!Anticipate higher volatility in the DXY today with the US Congressional Elections due. However, this news event is unlikely to cause a significant change in the longer-term trend. As the DXY trades along the 110.35 price level, look for a possible rebound on the DXY. If the DXY trades above the 110.70 price level, the price could continue higher toward the next resistance level of 111.77. Be prepared for the major news on the horizon, the US CPI y/y data release on Thursday at 9:30pm (GMT+8). It could very likely lead to a stronger USD regardless of the data... Why? Because if the CPI is released as expected at 7.9%, this would indicate that the interest rate increases from the Feds are taking effect, spurring confidence for more rate increases. And if CPI is sticky and still showing above 8%, then the Feds would have to continue increasing rates to combat further inflation growth.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai