Get started

CPI

NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/13/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 11833.25 - PR Low: 11816.00 - NZ Spread: 38.75 Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 275.97 - Volume: 15K - Open Int: 138K (rollover) - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -29.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10678 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2023Short
by mv3trader5
ES1 - Big picture clear downtrend channel on the 3D chart. another lower high should mark end of this santa rally, but if the price doesn't break below 3950, watch out. Worse scenario for both bulls and bears is slow grind for next few months until macro situation becomes clearer in Q1. Price action in mega cap ahead of Q1 earnings would be first sign of things to come. I don't think this rally will fade as quickly as last two. But again 3950 and 3800 are key levels to watch....any consolidation above those levels will be sign of strength. Below 3800, we go lower to 3200 and then 2800 perhaps (black swan event?) It's important to keep things in perspective. If you have missed out on this phase of rally, risk to go long here is substantially higher. Better approach would be to let price spice to 4150 and wait for consolidation. Go long on any pullbacks selectively.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CheelooTrader
Inflation Slowing, but Still a Concern for the Federal ReserveInflation in the United States, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is expected to have slowed again in November. This is due in part to a weaker economy, which has reduced inflation pressures. However, the expected 0.3% increase in the CPI is not enough to ease concerns at the Federal Reserve or prevent the central bank from raising interest rates even higher to slow the economy. Gas prices have fallen since the summer, reversing the spike in spring that sent inflation to a 40-year high. As a result, the cost of living has risen more slowly in the past four months. If the forecast is accurate, the annual rate of inflation would taper off to 7.3% from 7.7% in October and a peak of 9.1% in June. The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and gas, is also forecast to rise 0.3% in November. This is still higher than the monthly gains that were the norm before the pandemic. The yearly rate of core inflation may fall slightly to 6.1% from 6.3% in the previous month. The rate peaked at 6.6% in November. The increase in the cost of goods, excluding energy, has relaxed to 5% in October from 12.4% in February. However, the increase in the price of services continues to accelerate. The cost of services, excluding energy, has risen 6.8% in the past year. This is due in part to the increasing cost of labor, which is the biggest expense for most service-oriented businesses. Rents have jumped 7.5% in the past year, marking the biggest surge since 1982. Rents are starting to decrease as the economy slows, but the Fed and Wall Street are watching for clear evidence of a reversal. Even if rents and home prices level off, the change may not immediately show up in the CPI report.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by JoelWarby
Yield curve inversion, CPI, GDP and DOWHistorically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession; hence the inversion of the yield curve might be perceived as a leading indicator. Once the yield curve is inverted, it may be several months before we see GPD contracting; and it is not guaranteed that we will see a sharp drop in GDP. First pane: You can see the development of GDP and the associated development of the Dow Jones Index (log-scale). The area below you shows the US 10-year/2-year yield (bubbles indicate a yield curve inversion). As you can see, it might be some time before we see a GDP contraction after the yield curve inverts. The last area shows the core CPI that drove the Fed and expected higher dot plot medians in December. Nonetheless, recent data suggests that the core CPI may have peaked (to be confirmed).
TVC:US10YEducation
by Chimbarosa
Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
USD/JPY dips lower as PPI jumpsThe Japanese yen has started the week with losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 137.44, down 0.64%. Japanese wholesale inflation climbed 9.3% y/y in November, a drop lower than the 9.4% gain in October. This was above the consensus of 8.9%, as a peak in inflation remains elusive. The continuing increase in raw material costs has forced companies to pass on these costs. Higher commodity prices and a weak yen have raised the costs of imports, which has boosted wholesale and consumer inflation. If this upward trend continues, it could damage Japan's fragile economy, but the Bank of Japan has insisted that inflation is transitory and has been unwilling to change its ultra-accommodative policy. Is this the calm before the storm? USD/JPY has been subdued for almost a week, but I would not be surprised to see stronger movement in the next day or two, with a host of key events on the economic calendar. On Tuesday, Japan releases the BoJ Tankan report, which is expected to show a slowdown in manufacturing, but stronger non-manufacturing activity due to the easing in Covid restrictions. The US releases the November CPI report, and we have seen how softer-than-expected CPI data sent risk appetite flying and the US dollar tumbling lower. The consensus for CPI is 7.3%, following a 7.7% gain in October. The inflation report will be followed by the Federal Reserve rate announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to deliver a 50-basis point hike, which is an oversize rate increase. Still, coming after four straight hikes of 75 bp, the Fed has found it difficult to dampen investor speculation that the Fed may soon wind up the current tightening cycle. The Fed recently paraded a stream of FOMC members to deliver hawkish messages, but the markets seem intent on seizing any data that supports the equity markets, and another soft inflation report could achieve that result and send the dollar downwards. USD/JPY tested resistance at 137.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 138.25 There is support at 136.37 and 135.07
by OANDA
TSLA Major Confluence Long Signal!Going to keep this simple. We have a touch on the bottom of the descending parallelly channel, a major horizontal support line, and the golden pocket. This is a very bullish setup for TSLA to bounce. Stops should be placed below golden pock with the right position size and risk management to protect your account incase the bears manage to push the price through this major support. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rnaofs
DXY WEEKLY OUTLOOK DXY 2 scenerios for this coming week (very heavy with CPI and FOMC this week) 1) Looking for a continuation melt on the dollar index with a small bear flag on the hourly timeframe. With a break of structure I can see further downside on the dollar which would give rise in the equities market. 2) Looking at the dollar index to form a double top at 106.5 - 107 region for better risk to reward sells which means this will give equites, crypto a short-term downside move as we are currently experiencing now which can serve as manipulation or liquidity grabs to the downside for further upside later in the week or the coming weeks. Inflations Prints (CPI TUESDAY 9.30 PM SGT) As per seen from the prints of previous month, inflation is easing. We will be looking for Tuesday's print to be lower than that of previous month of 0.4% to signify a continuation of easing prints for the months ahead. If inflation were to print higher than 0.4%, we can safely gauge that the prints of previous month was a "One Trick-Pony". We will be looking at a continuation of bearish equities market / stocks / crypt and gold and dollar dominance. Inflation prints is in direct correlation to the FOMC monetary policy. If inflation is easing due to constant aggressive rate hikes, we can be looking at the FEDs to ease rate hikes accordingly as well. The market has been pricing in a Fed pivot Phase 1 and expecting rate hikes to be eased this month printing at 50 BPS. We will be looking at dollar weakness and bullishness across all global markets when this happens.
TVC:DXYShort
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Bitcoin 2023 |Fed Interest Rate Hikes & The Consumer Price IndexInflation is the keyword and we know how Bitcoin reacts negatively to the Fed rate hikes and inflation statistics nowadays. But... The CPI numbers will be revealed 13-December, the Feds meeting happens 13-14-December. This will affect Bitcoin and all markets negatively as it has been doing in the past but we expect a fast, strong and swift recovery right afterwards. We can expect something like this: 1) 2) 3) What's important really is what happens after mid-December. After the shakeout. We can see GREEN start to develop mid-December and give us a break for the rest of the year and a fresh start to 2023. Bitcoin, we start GREEN in 2023. Namaste.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by AlanSantana
28
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report we said we didn’t have much confidence in the bullish move from the week before and were expecting a move to the downside. We suggested caution as there was a pattern that suggested a potential break of 1755 so we gave the resistance levels above and illustrated the 1806-10 region to look for a reaction in price and possible rejection. We wanted lower pricing and gave a reaction region of 1760-65 where we were hoping for a tap and bounce back to the upside. As you can see, it was a perfect point to point, LEVEL TO LEVEL move, resistance held, Excalibur confirmed, and we got the move into the support levels below with then another TAP AND BOUNCE back to where the price is now. A fantastic week in Camelot, not only on Gold with Excalibur hitting and completing numerous targets, but also Silver, US30, GJ and Oil to name a few. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to start again this week with suggesting caution on the markets! There is a lot of news this week that will cause volatility and choppy price action as well as potential extreme swings. Markets have been lining up for a big move for a few weeks so expect the unexpected in the coming weeks. For this week we have extended the range we identified in early November which you can see the price has been playing well in. We’ll again prefer to see this tap that high in the early sessions before a potential reaction in price to give us the opportunity to short back down into the support levels below. So the 1806-10 price region is again the key resistance level for price to stay below and for us to see any attempt at the bearish move we’re looking for. The path shows the support level of 1770-75 as the first key level we would like to see, we will of course be using Excalibur to guide us which will give us more clearer and precise levels to target. This level of 1770-75 is important support this week, price needs to stay above this to the resume the swing to the upside and any attempt to break and hold above 1800! Now, we have also highlighted a lower level for a potential swoop of liquidity which is sitting just below the 1750 price region, due to the news events this week these extreme levels are very much possible, so please be careful with your entries and be patient. We’re expecting ranging, whipsawing, choppy price action this week so your risk model is really important as well as your lot sizes. They’re going to be grabbing liquidity so spikes up and down are very likely. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD: How to read the fundamentals?GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we can expect the opposite Scenario and more of a strong Dollar and a hawkish FOMC. when Good fundamentals meet good technicals then there is a good probability for your trade to go in your direction but always keep in mind that trading is a field of probabilities and since everything could happen a proper risk management should be taken in consideration. my recommendation is to risk 1% per trade so that will allow you to stay in the market the longest possible and will help you to compound your account as well. Otherwise if you risk 20% per trade then 5 losing trades in a row will knock you out of the market. And you don't want that to happen so you should stick to proper risk management of always risking small and aiming high. if you have any question please don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. i'm happy to interact and answer to all!
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$AUDUSD - Important data this week, be prepared. $AUDUSD - Get ready... Another week, another great opportunity for us traders to take advantage of. This week is a very important week: CPI, FOMC & PMIs. It was a difficult week, choppy action but that happens when we have important data this week. It's important to reserve your capital gains when market conditions are like this kangaroo or amber mode is way I describe it. Some are stating the CPI print will be more important than FOMC - I think it will be both very important as we go towards year end we still have plenty of trading opportunities and this week is a great week. We expect CPI to soften, 7.7% previous to 7.3% - If it comes in softer the rate hikes working, we expect 50 basis point for this meeting and the next and then we expect cuts - Now the market is forward looking we've seen risk play big part DXY declining cuts coming into play, easing less pressure dollar declines: we have Aussie, Gold and crypto escalate higher. What Powell will state will be very important in my humble opinion as we get to year end and positioning for portfolio management I have no set direction on yet to decide the movement for this week, we are within mid ranges of all assets - you could trade the data or wait and trade the after reaction. Regarding past data on Friday we had PPI: It came stronger than expected however we had minor dip in EUR we still went to rising back, now within the mid ranges. The dollar bears are still out there but will they get hurt this week? Only time will tell. Technically AUDUSD: We are within ranges a break to either direction, at this current moment of time we arent closing above 200ema if we are to close above bulls could gain further control up we go towards .70 areas easily - if not this rally fails and goes back towards .64 half areas All the best for this week, Trade Journal (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN - NOT A SIGNAL PROVIDER)
by Trade_Journal
2
Volatility Rally | Major Demand ZoneThe Volatility Index (VIX) has been in a historical downtrend the past weeks / 2 months! VIX has also been moving abnormal in relation to the S&P 500 Index which it tracks Volatility in. The Volatility Index has sunk to a major demand zone, and is now breaking back out of the area. After hitting Lows of around $19 the VIX is breaking out upwards. We are seeing a dump in the markets from major S&P Bear Market Trendline as well. Bears are stepping in at these levels in the markets, and the volatility index is rising, signaling further downward movement coming in the market. Simply put, the Volatility index is breaking out from its Major Demand Zone, and generally if history repeats will rally up to the supply zone up around the $30 level. This has been a typical swing move in the index since the beginning of 2022. Reasons VIX looks bullish : - TTM Squeeze (Daily & Weekly) - Reclaimed Daily EMA Cloud - Market Rejecting Major Trendline (S&P) - Cup & Handle on VIX (1hr / 1D) - Double Bottom - Market Greed - CPI & FOMC coming up How to play : $UVIX commons $VIX option calls etc. There are multiple reasons Volatility is rising currently, and Technicals back this thesis up strongly. I hope you liked the though!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
EURUSD is due for a pullback before resuming higher!FX:EURUSD has reached the end of the trading channel that it has been trending in since the end of Sept. With both a weakening momentum highlighted by the divergence in the RSI and the price action of the previous 2 peaks, coupled with the wedge forming at the end of the channel it seems it's finally time for the bears to step back. However, I don't think the bears should be celebrating yet, as so far it only seems like a healthy correction before resuming higher.
Short
by m3rr0r