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07/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $65,605.03 Last weeks low: $59,829.32 Midpoint: $62,717.17 After geo-political escalations causing panic in the markets at the beginning of last week, BTC has been spending the second half of the week trying to recover losses. The 1D 200EMA came in as support midweek to cap the sell-off, a steady climb back up flipping the 4H 200EMA back to bullish and finally the week low reclaim in the dying hours of the week. This to me is very positive, showing strength in times of major uncertainty. Another outside force Bitcoin will encounter is the US presidential election, that is now less than one month away and definitely will sway traditional markets and crypto alike. This week we have some key data events: Wednesday - FOMC minutes As the unemployment data came in better than forecast, this could be a sign of further rate cuts to come in November, we may get some clues on this in the report. Thursday - CPI (YoY) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.3% Actual:??? With CPI forecast to drop closer to the FEDs 2.0% target, anything lower than 2.3% would be positive for markets, 2,3% is probably priced in and anything above would be negative for markets. Friday - PPI (MoM) Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.1% Actual:??? Similar story in PPI as CPI, forecasts are for another drop and markets could react similarly to what's stated above. Data events can be a non-event but now that the rate cut cycle has begun and the US election is on the way these events are more important than ever.
by ProR35
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD Poised for Bullish Breakout Amid Weakening USD and CPI EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Current Outlook: EUR/USD is currently consolidating around the pivot level of 1.1000, with a potential bullish scenario on the horizon, especially with today’s anticipated inflation data, which is expected to show a weakening USD with a CPI result of around 2.5%. This could drive EUR/USD higher in the near term. Best Scenario : A bullish trend is more likely if the price stabilizes above the pivot line. A continued uptrend could lead the price toward the resistance levels at 1.1129 and 1.1168. The weakening USD from the inflation report supports this scenario. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 1.1036 Resistance Levels: 1.1129, 1.1168, 1.1240 Support Levels: 1.0949, 1.0913, 1.0861 Expected Range Today: The price is likely to move between 1.0949 and 1.1168, with a bullish bias. Overall Trend: The overall trend is expected to be bullish, especially if the price remains above the pivot point at 1.1000. A weaker-than-expected CPI for the USD will reinforce this upward movement, making the uptrend the stronger scenario.
Long
by SroshMayi
European Shares Gain as DAX Holds Bullish Momentum Ahead of CPIEuropean Shares Rise, Led by Tech and Resources Sectors European shares opened higher on Wednesday, with gains driven by the tech and basic resources sectors, as investors await a key U.S. inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The DAX remains in a bullish momentum zone as long as it trades above 18,180, with potential targets at 18,520 and, beyond that, 18,645. The trend is expected to remain bullish ahead of the inflation data, and if the data aligns with expectations, this momentum is likely to strengthen. However, a break below 18,180 could signal a downturn, with the price potentially falling towards 17,960. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18300 Resistance Levels: 18520, 18640, 18780 Support Levels: 18180, 17970, 17740 Expected Range: 18180 - 18780 Trend: Bullish as long as the price stays above 18,290 and 18,180.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by SroshMayi
Inflation Increases 2.5%, Setting Scene for Rate CutMarket Update, September 13th 2024 Takeaways Inflation stays under control: The Consumer Price Index increased 2.5% in August compared to the previous year, down from the 2.9% bump in July. The latest data indicates the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has reached a $14 million settlement with Emergent Technologies, resolving a dispute over 55 million Robinhood shares: The agreement avoids further legal action and allows Emergent to finalize its bankruptcy proceedings. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen a streak of daily net outflows, with nearly $1.2 billion withdrawn in just eight days: The downturn coincides with broader market volatility. The North Carolina Senate has passed a bill prohibiting state participation in any Federal Reserve-sponsored CBDC testing: The bill bans payments to the state using a CBDC. It passed despite a veto by Governor Roy Cooper. 🕰️ Topic of the Week: Understanding Interest Rates 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Nasdaq Awaits CPI Report with Potential for Volatility &BreakoutNasdaq Technical Analysis U.S. futures remain steady ahead of the highly anticipated CPI report, which is expected to significantly impact market direction. Projections suggest the CPI will come in around 2.5%, signaling a weaker USD and likely driving indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI exceeds 2.7% or 2.8%, market movements may become unpredictable, with the potential for a downward shift. The Nasdaq is expected to consolidate between 18,630 and 18,930 until a breakout occurs, with heightened volatility likely around the release of the inflation data. If the CPI results are lower than expected, the price could surge toward 19,220, with the possibility of reaching 19,625, particularly if the price stabilizes above 18,220. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected CPI result (around 2.8%) may create volatility and support a decline toward 18,340. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18800 Resistance Levels: 18930, 19220, 19625 Support Levels: 18630, 18340, 17890 Expected Trading Range: 18340 - 19220 Trend: Bullish Movement with High Volatile of CPI
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
NVDA rallied today with consistent strong volumeAfter a good cpi report NVDA rallied with momentum giving clues of more rallying to come Rally stayed under resistance level which indicates for a sustained rally Volume increased and remained steady during rally RSI broke above 50 going into bullish zone. Hopefully SMA will follow NVDA has started to form long term downward trend that began back in July. We need to watch out for this zone as a take profit area Overall we expect the rally to continue.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ratchet-mint
SPY breaks key resistance with momentumAfter the cpi report SPY went from selling off dramatically in the morning to turning around rallying with strong momentum and volume. CPI report brought a lot of volatility to the market today SPY started selling then turned around quickly to break resistance We note the increasing volume as the rally continues The final period did end with rather undecided candle giving a sense of pause to direction it may go tomorrow The strong volume on final period does indicate price exhaustion, we may experience pull back tomorrow. Multiple down beaten stocks from previous sell off trend are now experiencing a massive rally breaking their trend and reversing to the upside.
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint
S&P 500 Poised for Bullish Move Ahead of CPI ReportS&P 500 Technical Analysis with Inflation Data: U.S. futures remain steady ahead of the highly anticipated CPI report. The market is expected to be highly sensitive to the results. Current projections suggest the CPI will be around 2.5%, which would signal a weakening USD, potentially driving indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI comes in above 2.7% or 2.8%, the market movement could become unpredictable, with a possible downward shift. The S&P 500 is currently trading above the pivot line of 5,453, with potential upside targets at 5,526 and 5,573. Conversely, if the price falls below 5,453, it increases the likelihood of a move toward 5,412, particularly if the CPI exceeds 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5460 Resistance Levels: 5525, 5573, 5616 Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5360 Expected Trading Range: 5412 - 5573 Trend: Bullish as long as the price remains above 5,453.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
CPI Report to Drive Market Volatility with Bullish PotentialU.S. Futures Poised for Volatility as CPI Report Looms, Focus on Bullish Trend U.S. futures remain stable as markets await the much-anticipated CPI report, with the outcome expected to have a significant impact on market movements. Current projections suggest the CPI will come in around 2.5%, indicating a weakening USD, which could drive indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI exceeds 2.7% or 2.8%, market movements could become unpredictable, with a potential downward shift. The price has retested its support level, as previously noted. For today, volatility is expected, with a greater focus on an uptrend, assuming the CPI result aligns with the 2.5% forecast. Stability above 40,470 will likely support a rise towards 40,790 and 41,030, with further potential depending on the CPI data. In the bearish scenario, if the CPI exceeds 2.8%, a downtrend toward the levels identified in the chart could materialize. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 40650 Resistance Levels: 40790, 41030, 41180 Support Levels: 40320, 40010, 39900 Expected Trading Range: 40320 - 41030 Trend: Bullish while above 40470.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
USD/JPY Maintains Bearish Trend Ahead of CPI ReleaseUSD/JPY Maintains Bearish Trend Ahead of CPI Release The overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below 142.100, with downside targets at 140.300 and potentially 138.470. A corrective move toward the pivot line at 142.100 is possible before the bearish trend resumes. However, if the price stabilizes above 142.100 with a 4-hour candle close, a bullish move could extend toward 143.680. In general, if the CPI is released as expected around 2.5%, this would support a bearish trend for USD/JPY. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 142.100 Resistance Levels: 143.680, 145.038 Support Levels: 140.300, 138.460 Expected Range: 142.100 - 138.460 Trend: Bearish while below 142.100.
Short
by SroshMayi
Gold Poised for Bullish Move Amid CPI Expectations & Softer US.DGold Technical Analysis - 11 Sep. 2024: Gold Poised for Bullish Move Amid CPI Expectations and Softer U.S. Dollar Gold has reached the previously mentioned target of 2526, moving up from 2500. For today, market volatility is expected, but the outlook leans bullish if the CPI comes in at 2.5% or lower, which could drive the price higher toward 2543 and 2557. However, if the CPI is released at 2.8% or higher, it could trigger a bearish move, pushing gold back toward 2500 and potentially down to 2475. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2516 Resistance Levels: 2526, 2543, 2557 Support Levels: 2500, 2484, 2475 Expected Trading Range: 2500 - 2557 Trend: Bullish as long as the price remains above 2516. A break above 2526 would confirm strong bullish momentum. Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
U.S. Equity Investors Eye CPI Data Amid Fed Rate Cut SpeculationU.S. Equity Investors to Focus on Inflation Data to Gauge Potential Fed Rate Cuts This week, U.S. equity investors will closely monitor consumer and wholesale price inflation data to assess the likelihood and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts in September. The Dow Jones is expected to experience heightened volatility, particularly in response to the CPI data and the evolving interest rate environment. The index may attempt to reach 40,670, followed by a potential drop to 40,470 or lower, likely occurring ahead of the CPI release. If the CPI comes in at 2.8% or lower, upward pressure on the price is anticipated. Stabilizing above 40,800 before a decline would signal the end of the bearish correction. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 40,670 Resistance Levels: 40800, 41030, 41340 Support Levels: 40470, 40320, 40000 Expected Trading Range: 40800 - 40320 Trend: Bearish as long as the price remains below 40670.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
2
09/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the bottom of the daily downtrend channel. US CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) this week, as with big news events we can potentially see volatility, this will be the last US CPI before rate cuts begin in the US, in Europe rate cuts are forecast to begin on Thursday, predicted to drop from 4.25% to 3.65% according to invesing.com, a 60bps cut. Another major news event this week is the Trump v Harris Presidential debate. I'm not expecting a whole lot of crypto talk in this debate, if I'm being completely honest I can't see it being an adult debate about political policy at all. However, I do think it will have an effect on the markets one way or another, obviously Trump is the better outcome for crypto if he stays true to his plans set out during the Bitcoin conference compared to the plans for the Harris administration to tax un-realized gains which is not very pro-investment. Again, I'm not holding my breath for any information on crypto but it is a major news event all the same. So in conclusion this week is full of news events that could create volatility, with BTC at its current level nearer the bottom of the daily trend. It does feel like we're maybe coming to an end of the chop with monetary policy pivot taking place soon.
by ProR35
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA