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Countertrend

AUDJPY - Great R/R Trade Idea!AUDJPY Technical view: Pattern: Descending wedge Support: 80.185, 80.005, 79.815, 79.605 Resistance: 80.520, 80.660, 80.845 Bearish Confirmation Below: 80.185 How to approach the trade idea: - Follow your trade plan - Add an order where you think a confirmed break below would be - Checking the sentiment of the market for further conviction - Wait for break out, and trade the pull back Fundamentals: ECB : I don't think there will be any significant movement within ECB meeting there are few areas I will be keeping an eye if mentioned: - Biden ( inflation factors) - Political stance in Italy - Extension of lockdowns - Vaccination - Exchange Rate of EUR Jobless Claims : Wall street Vs Main street. I've had few people message in past weeks and days questions along lines of: How do you keep going even when the trade is against you? & How did you not quit? My answer: Be humble enough to let your ego go within trading, that's what a stoploss is there for, journal your trades to know what went wrong follow your own trade plan you don't always need multiple amount of indicators, stay disciplined to become the trader you want to become. It's not an over night success - I like the quote: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. The reality is - The market owes you nothing at all, and the best set up are those you have the patience with rather than rushing into. Surround yourself with community (Network) around you not social media community but a professional community, that most likely will cost. All the best, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
AUDUSD - IS IT TIME TO SELL...?! AUDUSD - Technical View: We've had a bit of a risk on move start this morning but equities and yields are both at key areas. In technical aspect we are a key resistance area in Aussie where I will be looking to add a short position on and scale in as time goes by. Technical: Pattern: Double Top for wedge forming. Support: 0.76425, 0.76280, 0.758050 (200EMA) Resistance: 0.77275, 0.77435, 0.77830 (50EMA) Fibonacci Retracement: 0.618 - 1.618 or 0.382 - 1.618 Ways to trade Aussie? - You could enter short position at this current moment of time and scale in towards key areas. - Add an order towards the key areas once breached - Double top, we at resistance - putting your stop as the correct area that goes with your plan will be something to think about - Go with what's in your trade plan not forgetting where you'd like to enter making it a great R/R (Risk/Reward) Trade. Fundamentals: - President-Elect Biden Speaks - Treasury nominee Janet Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker dollar: WSJ Key tip: Add your own creativeness towards your trading plan towards this idea - the idea I generate for you is only here to give you extra confluence towards your trading. Overall, it's at key area AUD for perhaps an intra-day/swing trade if planned correctly & depending on fundamental aspects as well. All the best, Trade Journal (Just trade ideas, not recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
GBPJPY - Bearish Bat on Sideway BounceA bearish Bat Pattern appears on the 4-hourly sideway bounce formation. I've almost missed this trade as there's a gap down with a different candle on Point C that's painted on my Live Trading Account on my MT4. It is a good practice to cross-check your charts on Monday especially when there is a gap, these are good practices of a trader. I've engaged the trade as the trading setup gives a very tight stop with a great profit projection.
Short
by RaynLim
EURUSD - Detailed MTFA Description - Trading with ConfluencesHi Traders! The market is in an overall Uptrend. We're going to start the MTFA with the Weekly Chart. Then we'll continue with the daily, H4 and H1 Timeframes. Here is the weekly TF: As you can see the market was in a descending Parallel Channel for a very long time. Then, it broke out and started to move upwards. After a while, it started to consolidate in a Range. Now, we are at the second Trending Move. The bullish Target is the Resistance at 1.25 and the bearish Target is at 1.20. Moving on to the daily TF: Here, the market is in an Uptrend. It is making higher Highs and higher Lows. But, take a look to the first Trendline: Price was rallying up and after the Trendline-Break the market started to consolidate. Then we have a second Trendline. Now it is breaking this Trendline and we expect a consolidation. The Range of the consolidation is between the Resistance at 1.22 and the Support at 1.20. Continuing with the H4-TF: Here you can surely identify the Head and Shoulders Pattern. We have a clear left Shoulder and a clear Head. The question is now: Is this a completed right Shoulder or is the market going to retest once again? However, we also have a Neckline and we will observe the reactions around it. Mainly we are looking to sell after the H&S Neckline Break. Lastly, here is the H1-TF: So, this chart may look complicated to a new Trader. But let's devide it, so you get hopefully a better understanding of it. Firstly: Which Key Structure do you already know from the higher TFs? The weekly Resistance (label is there) The pink daily Trendline The H4 Neckline of the Head and Shoulders Pattern (label is there) So, you already recognized those three Key Structures. Moving on from left to right. We have a Double Top Pattern. 4 out of the 9 speech bubbles are including this Pattern. This one blue dotted Level on the Top is the Neckline of the Double Top Pattern. The red circle reinforces the Double Top Neckline and Trendline Break. We have a descending Parallel Channel. This shows us possible valuable Areas to buy and sell. The idea is to sell at the Top of this Parallel Channel. But not only because that, we also have a last confirmation... We have a 50 EMA showing bearish strength. The market often reacts to the 50 EMA, because it is an indication for the Trend pressure. The Trade Structure The red Area shows the SL and the green Area the TP. The smaller the red Area compared to the green one is, the better Risk-to-Reward Ratio you have. We here have a RTR of 1 to 2.18. Now you should be able to understand the confluences behind this whole Trade Setup: - Approach of weekly Resistance / potential bounce off - Break of Daily ascending TL - H&S Pattern on H4 - Double Top Pattern on H1 - Active Descending Parallel Channel on H1 - 50 EMA showing bearish strength on H1 TF We recommend to trade with a low risk, because we are trading against the Trend here. Thanks and successful Trading :)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
AUD/USD W pattern completion ideaAUD/USD has been bullish for almost all 2020, and from a weekly perspective it formed a W pattern when retesting the broken multi-year resistance trendline. Usually after a W formation I expect the price to go up and retrace to retest the previous resistance as new support. Also the price failed already twice to break the 0.774 ceiling. therefore I expect it to fall down in the next weeks until it hits the 38.2% level of the fibonacci taken on the impulse. But I wouldn't be surprised if the price goes further down around the 61.8% fibonacci level where there is also a confluence of previous resistance.
by Confident_FX
NZDUSD - Bearish GartleyWell, if my previous(link at the bottom) post doesn't convince you that nowadays in the market correlated relationship no longer works the way it was, well, have a look at this. We have a Bearish Gartley Pattern on NZDUSD but we have a Bearish Butterfly Pattern on AUDUSD, how does that work for you? The market has been volatile but it's not exactly crazy that cause the movement to be irregular. You might learn of market correlation from your mentor, but it's important to keep the information up to date. I'm waiting for a shorting opportunity on this trading setup for a counter-trend trade.
Short
by RaynLim
GBPJPY - Bearish ButterflyI know a lot of traders has these rules of not getting overexposed in a single currency, I am not against those thoughts, but you have to ask yourself if you are trading a fixed pair or you are free to choose what you feel like trading. If you are trading a fixed pair, just like me, my take on this is, if the trade setup within your rules and not against the fundamental analysis then you have to take it. You see in this trading setup we have a Bearish Butterfly that broke the previous high, previous structure or you may even call it a break and close above the previous structure, while GBPUSD(link at the bottom) has a Deep Gartley Pattern setup within the consolidation zone without break previous structure. I'm waiting for candle confirmation to engage this counter-trend trade.
Short
by RaynLim
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Dec20,Wk5An ABCD Pattern is not usually the setup I'm looked at, but when it is spotted, there's a good reason to look for a trading opportunity, once the candle has show confirmation of its trend. At this moment, we have an inverted ascending triangle and it is perfect for counter-trend and breakout traders to look at this trade. If the trendline is not broken, I'll wait for a buying opportunity and if it breaks and closes above the resistance line, I will wait for a retracement to engage the trade.
Long
by RaynLim
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Dec20,Wk5On 16Dec, we have identified the ABCD pattern during our live session and right now, we have a Bearish Deep Gartley pattern that forms up within the consolidation zone of the ABCD pattern. No doubt, this is a counter-trend setup, it is a stronger setup then the week before as there is more indicator line up to support the pullback trade. The aggressive trader can wait for the pullback of 1.3580 to short the market, the conservative trader can wait to engage the market at 1.3608. For me, it depends on the candle formation at that level.
Short
by RaynLim