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COT

GBPJPY - 5-9 April Weekly Trade PlanGBPJPY Monthly: Bullish Weekly Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish COT: GBP : Long 68% - Short 32% (Strong) JPY : Long 23% - Short 77% (Weak) Monthly: Solid bullish and with previous month close above 150.40 indicates a bullish continuation to target current monthly resistance at 155. Weekly: Solid Bullish after 22-26 March week candle tested broken resistance 148.85 and bounced with a long nice lower wick. While last week closed solid bullish above the resistance formed at 151.62. Current weekly resistance is 153.84 April 2018 weekly candle wick then 155. Daily: Strong Bullish momentum with close above previous resistance formed at 151.90 and with GBP is currently strong and JPY is weak from COT data that is already reflected on the chart, bullish momentum continuation is expected to extend further to target 155. Retracement should be contained within 151.90/151. So I've 2 Scenarios for next week as following: Scenario 1 : Looking for GJ to retrace and form a support between 152.26 and 151.84 to confirm creating a HL to extend the bullish momentum and to test highs Scenario 2 : A failure to create a support will indicate a LH is formed and we may extend the correction to test 150.68 Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart: Daily Chart Outlook:
by Amr_Sadek
COT CURRENCY REPORTThis report reflects the COTdata updated until 23 Mar 2021. Overall: With the CFTC data updated until 23 March the JPY showed the biggest decrease of (-14K) and the EUR showing the biggest increase of (+3K). AUD, NZD & CAD: After sizable moves lower with the recent risk off flushes, all three high betas remain bullish in the med-term outlook, and with relatively small net long positions, there is still more room to run. In the week ahead it's going to be very quiet on the data front, but we will have a few events to watch for WTI which could have impact on the CAD such as the upcoming JMMC meeting and more developments with the Suez Canal. Also keep in mind this week we will have month-end and quarter-end, we also have a shortened week due to Good Friday, which means liquidity is likely going to be unfavourable. Thus, even though med-term biases remain intact do watch out for erratic price moves without any real catalyst. JPY & CHF & USD: Another big increase in net-short positions for the JPY. The speed of the move in the JPY has been very excessive in the short-term, with the 1-year z-score printing a 4.5 with this past week's data. That is a very big deviation from the norm, which means we do want to be a bit careful with the JPY from a positioning point of view. Even though the JPY has been at the mercy of moves in US10Y, a sudden move higher from some profit taking is a risk to keep in mind. The Dollar was the star performer last week, pushing higher across the board even while US10Y was pushing lower for the majority of the week. The short-term drivers that has recently affected the Dollar is still very much in play such as yield differentials, better relative growth & inflation dynamics as well as the faster policy normalization expectations for the FED. However, again from positioning, the move in the USD does look stretched in the short-term so keep that in mind going into the new week. GBP: The bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, especially versus the EUR, where EURGBP managed to close below the important support at 0.8550. This week is going to be very light on the data front, so focus will remain on the overall driver for EURGBP such as vaccine roll out (UK well ahead), growth expectations (UK well ahead), monetary policy (UK far less dovish), fiscal policy (EU still waiting for ratification), new virus cases (rising much faster in EU). EUR: The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas. Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency. For the week ahead, the focus will be on the incoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI as well as the March NFP report (which is expected to show a sizable jump on the headline). If we see these two data points print significantly higher than expected, it will mean more downside for the EURUSD, which should also be supportive for further EURGBP downside as well.
by thunderpips
21
EURNZD - 29 March - 2 April 21 Week Trade PlanEURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD managed finally to break the range 1.6660/1.6520 to the upside with a solid 300 pip bullish candle which was due to NZD housing prices and Risk Off sentiment in market (NZD is a risk driven currency) reaching a solid resistance zone 1.7020/1.6980. - Currently resistance zone is a historical Sup/Res that did hold for several times. Lately acted as a solid resistance during Jan in a ranging area from 1.7020 1.6820. - COT report showing that NZD long positions are getting closed while NZD shorts are not increasing which means that this is a take profit for Long positions and still not a change in positions to Short NZD. We need more views on next 2 weeks positioning in order to have clear view on position changes. - Seasonality showing that EURNZD will reach it’s top this month and will start continuing it’s bearish trend. Which could justify the spike this month along with the COT long positions. - I’m looking for EURNZD to range between 1.7020/1.6820 after the current run from the lows created at 1.6500 which acts as a HL after the 1.6320 LL created in Feb. - Will prefer longs with support formation above 1.6700 to retest the highs created at 1.6980 and may be continuation. And shorts with resistance formation below 1.6980 to retest the broken range high at 1.6660/1.6620 - Building Permits on Tuesday and Consumer Confidence on Thursday may give some move during Asian Session but not trend changer. Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 22-26 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Can't find a clear direction for EURNZD now as we are in a very tide range for 3 weeks. A break of this range and a sustain momentum after the break will give us a clear way where we are heading. I recommend not to trade EURNZD till a clear direction. Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are closing longs and Shorts had increased to 40% from 30% last week. With such change in positions, we could see EURNZD move to the upside but be cautious that this could be a profit taking for Long position. Will monitor COT report in coming weeks to clearly understand the positions swaps. - As for news this week, the important are on Monday Westpac Consumer Survey and Wednesday Trade Balance which will move the market. Trade Plan Daily Chart: Also refer to my last week analysis for more details:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 15-19 March 21 Week Trade PlanFX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - EURNZD still ranging between 1.6700 / 1.6560 after creating low at 1.6320 triggered by Interest Rate Decision and retraced back the whole down move. The range high is contained below the daily support at 1.666x with rejection to hold above 1.6700. - Looking for either support formation above 1.6700 to trigger Long positions or resistance formation below 1.6570 to trigger shorts. Also, current range trades could be played till we break this range 1.6700/1.6560. So, I may look to Short on 4H Res formation below 1.6700 and Long on Solid 4H formation above 1.6560. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Important news for NZD this week on Thursday GDP and Wednesday Rate Decision which will move the NZD. Week Trade Plan Daily Chart: Daily Levels Daily Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 08-12 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD edged a bit higher last week away for ranging zone 6650/6550 at 6760 a bit shy from the major resistance at 6820 that is currently acting as a solid barrier for EURNZD. But on 4H a HH/HL we can see a HH/HL formation that may act as a trigger to test the 6820 resistance. - A Solid HTF Support formation above 6820 will indicate that a low formed for a 7020 target. Failure to sustain a support above 6820 and with HTF solid resistance formation below 6820 will be a sign for bearish momentum continuation and we may retest the lows created at 6320 - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Friday Business NZ PM and some important news for China on Wednesday may move NZD during Asia Session. Weekly Outlook Chart: Daily Outlook Chart: Weekly Trade Plan:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 01-05 March 21 Week Trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Previous Daily : Bullish - EURNZD as expected created a lower resistance below 6660 which pushed EIRNZD to create a new low at 6320 helped by Interest rate news and NZ economical optimism. The new low created triggered a hard pullback as it was Feb End and profit taking which currently pushed EURNZD again above 6660. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD continued bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken in March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Wednesday Building Permits and RBNZ's Governor Orr speech on Thursday. Monthly Outlook: Weekly Outlook: Daily Outlook: Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
Near Term buy Supporting the previous post of a DXY move down. I would like to see EU make some new highs up towards the next major zone (in blue). COT data suggest we are currently favouring a long position from both asset managers and leveraged funds. with a 96% bias on the asset managers. The Leverage funds have slowed down the selling of the Euro from mid-Jan. So again, further support of a Bullish move coming. Regression and Stochastic also stack up to favour this move over the next month. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment? Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"??? This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace. Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market. “It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!” “Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.” Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong. There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index. In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of; SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index. Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently; Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY) Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY) However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%. Do all the numbers match up? Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say? Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool. On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers. It's as simple as that. IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com Hope this helps someone. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
EURUSD Bullish ForecastThis pair was analyzed with multi timeframe analysis and zooming out on EU, it looks quite bullish and I am forecasting further upside. Yes, I understand that we are at (and potentially rejected off) a critical resistance level but we are also in a corrective structure projecting a bigger move to the upside. While looking at DXY, we have the exact opposite, where we have a Bearish Structure currently consolidating for further downside. Some confluences to support this idea: Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern formed Counter-trend of Daily Bearish Structure with Break & Retest Daily Bullish Wick that should normally be filled Previous COT data shows an increase in longs. New data will need to be reviewed when released. Potential formation of weekly ICI pattern Potential formation of new Daily Bullish Structure The first step in order to validate this idea, will require a clean break above the resistance zone around 1.22. Let me know your thoughts. Trade Safe! HEET ps. I generally post alot of updates as the idea/trade evolves. If you want to stay updated, please click the "Follow this idea" button.
Long
by AfterlifeTrading
2
EURNZD 22-26 Feb 21 Week trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD failed to hold above 6820/45 resistance zone and rejected multiple time during last week tide range. Breaking lows on Friday reaching weekly planned TP2 at 6590. Refer to last week plan: - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD continued bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end Feb, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Tuesday Retail Sales and Interest Rates for China on Monday.
by Amr_Sadek
The (COT) - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS Mystery RevealedThis is NOT an in-depth explanation or a way to trade, this is just highlighting some basics from a question I get a lot, you might see some traders talking about COT data. You may even see it in some posts. There's no magic to it, all you need to know is what exactly it is. Of course, if you can use it within your edge to understand some bias by the bigger operators. What is COT Data? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports to help the public understand market dynamics. Specifically, the COT reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for futures and options on futures markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The COT reports are based on position data supplied by reporting firms (FCMs, clearing members, foreign brokers and exchanges). While the position data is supplied by reporting firms, the actual trader category or classification is based on the predominant business purpose self-reported by traders on the CFTC Form 401 and is subject to review by CFTC staff for reasonableness.2 CFTC staff does not know specific reasons for traders’ positions and hence this information does not factor in determining trader classifications. In practice, this means, for example, that the position data for a trader classified in the “producer/merchant/processor/user” category for a particular commodity will include all of its positions in that commodity, regardless of whether the position is for hedging or speculation. Note that traders are able to report business purpose by commodity and, therefore, can have different classifications in the COT reports for different commodities. For one of the reports, Traders in Financial Futures, traders are classified in the same category for all commodities. You can read more info and get the actual data from the CFTC site itself. www.cftc.gov Methodology The weekly report details trader positions in most of the futures contract markets in the United States. Data for the report is required by the CFTC from traders in markets that have 20 or more traders holding positions large enough to meet the reporting level established by the CFTC for each of those markets.1 These data are gathered from schedules electronically submitted each week to the CFTC by market participants listing their position in any market for which they meet the reporting criteria. The report provides a breakdown of aggregate positions held by three different types of traders: “commercial traders,” “non-commercial traders” and “nonreportable.” “Commercial traders” are sometimes called “hedgers”, “non-commercial traders” are sometimes known as “large speculators,” and the “nonreportable” group is sometimes called “small speculators.” As one would expect, the largest positions are held by commercial traders that actually provide a commodity or instrument to the market or have bought a contract to take delivery of it. Thus, as a general rule, more than half the open interest in most of these markets is held by commercial traders. There is also participation in these markets by speculators that are not able to deliver on the contract or that have no need for the underlying commodity or instrument. They are buying or selling only to speculate that they will exit their position at a profit, and plan to close their long or short position before the contract becomes due. In most of these markets the majority of the open interest in these "speculator" positions are held by traders whose positions are large enough to meet reporting requirements. *** Reference from Wikipedia*** When combining with other analysis - you can use it to obtain bias or simple confluence with your existing ideas. For example, here's the chart plotted on a weekly timeframe using Elliott wave theory - Plotted usign another piece of software called "Advanced Get" If you combine this with the data from the CFTC website - you will see that the professional operators have been reducing long positions and gaining albeit staggered short positions on the move down. This showing the overall trend move - If you drill down further and look at the difference in short positions between the 19th of Jan and the following week (26th) on a daily chart you will see a rally. (go check it for yourself) A useful tool As I said at the start of the post, it's not the master strategy. It's simply another tool - I just wanted to share some info with the community on what it is and how it can be used. If used correctly - it can prove useful. Have a great week, feel free to pop questions below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
EURNZD - 15-19 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD retested the low formed at 6640 and formed a support on Feb 9. The bounce from 6640 extended to test resistance level 6780 and resistance zone at 6820/45 where it found solid rejection on Friday at the resistance zone but still holding above 6780/60 support zone. - The COT report showing that NZD sellers are still picking up but still not a confirmation that buyers are out yet. I anticipate that this could be the spike that EN does with each new low created and with the current support formed at 6640. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end Feb, I anticipate that this week we could have the last strength for NZD before continuing weakness till end of Feb. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So I recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - No major news for NZD this week and China having Bank Holidays so not expecting major moves during Asia Sessions. Weekly Chart Outlook: Monthly Levels:
by Amr_Sadek
EURUSD Market OverviewUSD selling pressure has been seen this week, due to the most recent weekly jobless claims falling to a less than expected figure. US T-Bonds gave the US Dollar Index some small gains. The Euro Commission revealed that the Eurozone growth forecast for 2021 fell to 3.8% from 4.2% Not so good right?! The economy is looking weaker and it doesn't help that Euro Central Bank Policy Maker, Mr. Makhlouf acknowledges the weakened economic growth of Europe. Its clearly mixed data here for EURUSD, and I personally don't plan to trade EURUSD as of now. There is strong resistance shown on the 4H Timeframe and until price can break and retest this structure, I wont be looking to Long the pair. But why long? Check out my analysis, the Monthly and Weekly are showing a Bullish setup. As a result, I am waiting for the Daily and 4H to align with my anticipated move to the upside; I'll be waiting for a shift in market tone.
by DADA-FX
6
GBPUSD Market OverviewGU gained some strong traction Wednesday due to some massive USD selling. The upbeat market mood is definitely a key factor in weakening our beloved Greenback! Not to mention, I find it interesting that the uptick in US Bond Yields didn't relieve our friendly BULLS. The UK possibly gained some strength due to their Vaccination Drive and from the UK Central Bank pushing back expectations for negative interest rates. Our Safe-Haven USD definitely weakened after this recent MONTHLY US JOBS REPORT, which have raised questions on how fast the US can recover from an economic standpoint. COT DATA has shown some interesting activity as well, check out my technical analysis and see what story price action is communicating with us in regards to some short terms moves right now.
by DADA-FX
1
EURNZD - 08-12 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Slightly Bullish - EURNZD finally broken the range and closed below 1.6780 reaching 1.6720 and barely 1.6620, meaning we are in a very solid bearish momentum. - The COT report showing that NZD sellers are picking up for the first time since the start of 2021 but still not a confirmation that buyers are out yet. I anticipate that this could be the spike that EN does with each new low created. - Seasonality is not correlated with the current PA as NZD strengthen during Feb and created a pick now while Seasonality is showing ranging and a bit of weakness for NZD. I'll wait for this week to clarify a bit to confirm. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - We have important news for NZD on Tuesday and Friday for Inflation and Business PMI also some news from China on Wednesday which also effects NZD. Daily Chart : Weekly Chart :
by Amr_Sadek
2
EURNZD - 1 - 5 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Slightly Bullish - EURNZD since 5Jan still ranging between 6980 / 6840 after a long term bearish trend since the top created on March 2020. - The COT report still showing that 68% of institutional positions are Long NZD which is a bit less than last week, but still at it's highest levels since 3 years compared to 32% Short positions. This is translated on the chart with EURNZD sustaining it's bearish trend and we are seeing support levels broken every week. - Seasonality showing that NZD should be ranging during Feb after reaching the top during Jan by reaching 6770 sup and slightly to the weak side. - So with Current Range, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to be ranging and slightly moving up if we formed Support above 6980. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - We have important news for NZD on Wednesday for Employment and historical data shows 200 pip range on this news.
by Amr_Sadek
2