Is COT trading in a giant Bull Flag?Maybe a descending triangle as well, but seeing the recent bullish upward since Goldman Sachs recommended a buy rating from neutral.
It actually appears as though COT has formed a Triple Bottom, which also appears slightly as a Ascending Triangle. The triple bottom is similar to the double bottom chart pattern and may also look like ascending or descending triangles.
When STZ entered the Cannabis space they used Goldman Sachs to broker the deal.
Goldman Sachs went bullish on Cott a in July, and why? Well, we know Goldman Sachs is supportive of cannabis via the previous brokered deal with STZ & Canopy. They'd be privy to any Safe Banking & States Act regulations, so that may simply be the answer, front running Cott's entry into the cannabis space?
Cott has sold off several assets over the past couple years & have some cash to spend, and seeing so many previous Cott employees in the Cannabis space leads me to believe they may make a surprise entrance into the sector..
COT
BTC falls in line with its decline in ordersIf the price falls below the significant resistance in brighter green we could really see btc tumble
CADJPY - DOWNTREND RESUMPTION This pattern is one of the most powerful and reliable when it comes to COT Data. We calculate the six weeks rate of change of COT Index, we give this the name of Movement Index, and the signal is triggered when we have +-40 points!
RULES:
During a correction from an UPTREND, +40 points in the Movement Index often marks the end of a corrective pullback and the resumption of the major uptrend.
During a correction from a DOWNTREND, -40 points in the Movement Index often marks the end of a corrective pullback and the resumption of the major downtrend.
The FAILURE of the signal often marks a major trend change
So the most important here is not the pattern itself, but that we are at an inflection point, this means that we have a big trend to ride and if we are wrong about the direction we will know very soon and also that our stop-loss is cheap. One last thing to add before charts is the post from last week where we discussed the bottom formation for USDCAD, this aligns with a short in CADJPY.
CHARTS:
Let’s see what happened in the past when this signal was triggered.
These are the dates when it triggered:
15/01/2017 – Sell Signal
23/04/2017 – Buy Signal
16/07/2017 – Sell Signal
25/03/2018 – Buy Signal
06/01/2019 – Buy Signal
To check the charts and the rest of this idea go to:
leohermoso.com
USDMXN - POSSIBLE BOTTOM PATTERNUSDMXN – BULLISH BIAS
Our Mexican boy has also triggered a signal that has high accuracy. This is the “Possible bottom” signal and it’s calculated using the COT Index.
RULES:
Possible Top: Cot index is moving out of a commercial selling climax zone
Possible Bottom: Cot index is moving out of a commercial buying climax zone
Buying climax zone is when the COT Index is greater than 90
Selling climax zone is when the COT Index is less than 10
CHARTS
Last time the signal was triggered:
To see the rest of this idea go to
leohermoso.com
Let's keeping shorting EURUSDBig speculators still adding to short side and they are far away from exhausting their selling capacity! Let's play all the supply zones!
CORNUSD : LONGThe support and resistance levels are pivot bands and adaptive. Updates will be made about the idea.
You can use supports for profit realization and resistances for stoploss according to your leverage and risk .
NOTE: My ideas made only as a result of some predictions, do not agree completely. Just consider it as an idea between your opinions.
AUD/JPYTimeframe: 4 hr
Trend: Sideways/upwards
I posted a trade idea on AUD/JPY on June 26 (title is wrong - ) for longs at 75.50 area after price broke out of the downtrend. Price failed to continue the uptrend and has been consolidating since then and has continued to be rejected at the 76 area.
I have been keeping my eye on the COT (commitment of traders) report, institutions are removing some shorts for longs and I am expecting bullish momentum to start up in the coming weeks for a up wave. Once this area is broken look for longs to 77.35 to 77.50 level.
AUD COT report: www.tradingster.com
Follow my free telegram for my trading ideas and review of my past ideas: t.me/forex_ideas
AUD - Huge upside potential*Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
GBPAUD 1:10 Risk Reward (High Risk, but Lucrative Potential)GBP False Long?
- Brexit optimism in the public eye. Pound surges suspiciously in such uncertain times.
- False breakout potentially?
- LogicStrategy Quant score: -14
- COTA reading: 54% of funds are net short on GBP
AUD Fundamentals
- The People's bank of China has reported its second month of gold buying. Showing a potential appreciation on AUD
- Quant score: 20
- COTA reading: 60% of funds are net short on AUD
The COT sentiment readings old no bias on this trade, making it even more uncertain in the longer run.
Understanding COTA post on understanding COT report.
Will be posting more on the comment section below.
BCOM headed lower as global metals,Natgas and oil falterOur CFTC prop research points out the Bloomberg commodity index is headed lower. This has a wide ranging effect on global indices and sectors that are heavy weighted trading or using Metals, Natgas and Oil.
Wheat bull run $ZWI believe Russian aggressive wheat export campaigning has left their supply side depleted again. With rising wheat tenders across the globe and global cooling on top of an end of bullish accumulation phase as per COT analysis the path for higher wheat prices is wide open. Technically the 4h chart fits snugly in a diamond pattern, which upon breach almost always accelerates price action.
EURJPY - Biggest Yen short covering underwayCFTC data shows YEN bears were at extremes a few weeks back. They have started to unwind their positions and thus accelerating Yen's upside.
Nikkei225 which is in close inverse-correlation with YEN is tracking lower too.
We expect market participants to continue unwinding YEN shorts from over -$12bn short to -$7.5bn, which would transcend into a 2-3 handle move in EURJPY.
Euro bears are currently out in full force and have no reason of squaring positions.
EURUSD finding supportThis weekly chart of the EURUSD may be a bit cluttered but the EURUSD is showing some mixed signals and requires a bit more detail to try to understand the potential trend. Using the Larry Williams COT Index we see that USD Commercial Interest is at extreme lows, indicating a potential for selling of the USD to step in. However, these extreme levels could be held for some time. The EUR on the other hand has come off extreme lows but is still working its way to wards the buy zone and more selling can be expected. The sum of the Open Interest for the EUR and USD has shown low interest during the decline. Now we see increased volume on the up waves showing signs of strength coming in. The net commercial COT (EUR-USD) (green line with scale on left axis) has shown a similar decline and is still showing a downward trend. The OBV (red overlay on chart with no scale) for the broker volume has shown effort with the up volume without response (price still slowly trending down) or divergence between price and the OBV indicating continued weakness. The volume profile indicates a significant volume cluster between 1.16 and 1.18 providing resistance and sellers are still in the market. On the down site there is a significant point of control at 1.12 which is to the top of the Wyckoff accumulation range established between March 2015 and December 2016. From this my view is that the current down trend is a backup to the creek (Trading Range) and could find support at 1.12 before going into markup in Phase E. So in the short term I am expecting a final drive to the support level at 1.12 in the next month or two. After that the Markup could potentially start and break the long-term downward stride of the EURUSD.
2018/09/11 Gold COT : Totals by category (Lon+Sho+Spr) vs MM2018/09/11 It seems that MM are getting into shorts heavily, while still at their maximum in terms of total contracts.
So they are not exactly exiting gold for better opportunities. But they are a fast reacting category, so I see this as an opportunistic position of them, that might change rapidly. To watch
NZD/USD time to sellhello guys here's a new idea on the NZD/USD exchange rate. First, we're approaching the 200dma which will act as a resistance level, secondly, we are in a spot where support turns into resistance giving us the possibility to short the NZ$. The first target is at 0.66385 then we can go for a retest of the 0.65722 level. Lastly, the COT suggests a bearish approach.
best regards,
docCDS
2018/08/23 E-MINI &P500 Cftc OI & Asset Managers LO/SHE-MINI &P500, Cftc Open Interest & Asset Managers LO/SH (%)
GBPUSD/ SellBased on the volume analysis and the last COT report, we can conclude that there is a high probability of sale.
Last Commitment of Traders report:
GBPUSD: - 4.214 Long and +2.549 Short
Platinum with a lot potential to the upsideAnyone familiar with the Commitment of Traders Report knows that the commercials have reached an extreme range that leaves much room for rising prices. Added to this is that the chart image with the recently formed double bottom looks bullish.
This is what a trade might look like:
- Entry immediately
- Stop Loss below the last local low
- Take profit with multiple exits (scaling out) first profit taking at $875
CADJPY/ Short-term chance for shortUsing the FXCM volume (as well as with OANDA), you can see that the strength of increases is getting weaker, while sales are getting stronger. You can also refer to the COT report, according to the latest JPY should be stronger than CAD.
Warning
This is a short-term forecast.
The idea ceases to be valid after breaking the resistance on a large volume.
Myfxbook
www.myfxbook.com
