Trader addresses vs Bitcoin price 📝Definitions
According to IntoTheBlock , we can classify bitcoin addresses by the amount of time they have held their investments.
The classification is done by looking at the weighted average time an address has been holding, split into three groups:
🧑🦳Hodlers — Addresses that have been holding for over one year. These are seen as long-term investors
🧑Cruisers — Addresses holding for over a month but under a year. These are mid-term or so-called swing traders
🧑🦲Traders — Addresses holding for under a month. These are short-term speculators
📈Graphic analysis
There is a positive correlation between the number of traders and the Bitcoin price most of the time.
It is interesting to note that the number of traders is at the same level as July 2019, while the Bitcoin price is in the same zone as the 2017 top.
🟢The scenario will be bullish if the number of traders break through the blue rectangle and seek the upper part of the symmetrical triangle;
🔴on the other hand, the scenario will be bearish if this indicator seeks the bottom of the triangle.
⚠️And it would be extremely bad if it broke the triangle below.
📆This week promises a lot of volatility, with US inflation data being released on 12/13/2022, and on the 14th the interest rate release, along with the FOMC projections.
🇪🇺 In addition there will be a hectic agenda in the European Union.
Correlation
USDJPY Short From H1 Supply Zone ( + 3,7 RR)A clean trade on US Dollar vs Japanese Yen was taken on December 5th and here is it's full breakdown:
We see an example of Drop-Base-Drop market movement. We took a Base of this movement as an Supply zone and went into shorts with the goal at the local low, because:
1) Fibo discount level (0.62)
2) Clean supply zone
3) Correlator DXY was showing short signal too
4) Supply zone on a resistance level
5) Imbalance to fill in
6) Price tapped the zone on a EU session
7) RSI divergence on M30
The TP wasn't lower due to the premium zone and more imbalance laying above. Typically, we wouldn't take this trade due to this factor, but all 7 reasons were solid and we were right.
If you like such type of content with explanation, like this post and leave a comment!
XAUUSD H1 - Long SignalA little adjustment to gold, we have seen a nice correction from latest weekly resistance test down to previous weekly resistance (now support) confluence zone sits on our 1780 handle, whole number price, with weekly and hourly s/r. Healthy 50-618 correction from recent bullish breakout. Lets see where this H1 closes.
Market correlationThis is how I use the markets' different points to confirm the trades that I usually take
All Eyes On USDT.D 👀Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
USDT.D has been bearish for the past 2 weeks. However, it is currently approaching support zone (7.9% - 8.1%)
For the bears to remain in control, we need a daily candle close below the 7.9%
In this case, further bearish movement would be expecting till the next support 7% and lower orange trendline. Thus further bullish movements would be expected for the crypto market.
Meanwhile, until the bears take over, the 7.9% is acting as support and hold the price upward.
If any bullish reversal setup is activated and/or if we break above the upper red trendline, then expect further bullish movement.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Interesting correlation between Bitcoin and BNBEntering the market when BTC/USD goes down while BNB/USDT goes up (and vice versa) might be a veritable investment strategy.
This seems to work in many timeframes but the most lucrative is the 15m timeframe.
Tue 22nd November 2022 Daily Forex Charts : 7x New Trade SetupsGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified 7x new trade setups this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on these setups. The trades being a AUD/CAD Sell, AUD/USD Sell, GBP/JPY Buy, GBP/NZD Buy, USD/CAD Buy, USD/JPY Buy & XAU/USD (Gold) Sell. A few of these are higher risk and there is obviously some correlation here, so be aware of risk % per trade and overall risk. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Graphical and Fundamental Analysis of Riot Blockchain (RIOT)1. Graphic Analysis
The price has broken a diagonal support at the white line.
If going to bet on a rise, I would expect a bear trap at $4.
If the downtrend continues, the next targets will be hit on the Fibonacci projection.
$1.30 would be the longer target.
The indicator at the bottom demonstrates the correlation with the price of Bitcoin, which is positive.
The macro scenario remains bad, largely due to the FTX crash.
The quarterly results presented by blockchain and mining companies are being released, and by the way, they are not good.
The question is: if the next results are not positive or if more companies fail, to what extent this would affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
2. Fundamental Analysis
Recessions & UnemployementAs you can see in the chart, Recessions tend to start when unemployment rate bottoms.
We're starting to see a bottom in the unemployment rate. Will we see a reccesion next? Let's wait and see
FRED:UNRATE
AUDUSD Short (based on potential rate increase)16/11/2022 | 04:34
The price of gold stabilized near a three-month high on Wednesday as signs of cooling U.S. inflation boosted bets for lower rate hikes as markets waited for more. clarity regarding reports of Russian missiles killing two people in Poland.
= traders are betting on a rate cut, so gold goes up and the dollar goes down
"Gold is still largely pinned on the Fed....We can see gold continuing to climb from last week's peak, but it hasn't really found a terrific follow-up," Ilya Spivak said. , currency strategist at DailyFX.
= Gold peaks and enters a dwell zone waiting for the next meeting
“Needless to say wild card type factors may exist, like some kind of more aggressive and more immediate escalation in Ukraine, you could see gold turn reactive.”
= Gold remains sensitive to Ukrainian news
Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in October, further evidence that inflation is beginning to subside.
The data, which follows October's weaker-than-expected increase in consumer prices last week, bolstered hopes that the US Federal Reserve may slow its interest rate hikes going forward.
= Fed may be tempted to cut rates, traders say
However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he saw little evidence that aggressive monetary policy tightening was slowing inflation, predicting more hikes would be needed to bring inflation back down. Fed's 2% target.
= Monetary policy makers stick to their guns despite the numbers
While gold is used as a safe investment in times of political and financial uncertainty, rising interest rates tend to tarnish bullion's appeal, as the metal earns no interest.
= If the Fed continues to raise rates, the dollar will rise again and gold will fall
US CPI puts Riks-on In Play; Watch AUDUSD Bulls Inflation in the US came down last week which allowed stocks finally to rally while US yields and USD came down across the board. Speculators think that FED will slow down the hikes, but further move on some of the FX pairs will now depend on data outside of the US. We have UK and Canadian CPI this week, while the focus will be also on RBA meeting minutes. So these events can shake the FX markets a bit, but based on sentiment reading it looks like risk-on is here, at least for the next few days after a positive close on Friday on the US stock market. We see DAX trading at the highs so eur may also continue higher as recovery on DAX should resume after set-back.
However, our focus for potential trade ideas can be on AUD or NZD as these two were quite strong since Thursday's US CPI data. JPY is also strong but move over extended, so there can be some pullbacks.
I will focus on AUDUSD pullbacks
USDMXN is breaking the supportsUSDMXN remains bearish and it’s now in a sharp intraday decline aboutwe have been warning about in the past. We see pair now breaking the trendline support and its falling below the important 19.70 level. This may cause more more weakness as a higher degree bearish triangle can come to an end. In fact, MXN has been one of the strongest even when USD was up vs GBP, AUD and NOK. So if these are ready to gain, or at least make a pullback, then we think that USDMXN can easily come much lower. Check where USDMXN is despite DXY bull run in the last 12 months.
A bearish HS pattern also signals for more weakness on USDMXN.
Grega
Crude Oil Remains BullishHello traders, today we want to update our Crude oil chart compared to USDMXN currency pair from October 06.
As you can see, Crude oil remains nicely bullish after we spotted a bullish reversal out of the wedge pattern. At the same time USDMXN pair is breaking out of bigger bearish wave B triangle pattern.
Well, Crude oil is now trying to continue higher within wave C/3 at least up to 97-98 area for wave C if not even higher above 100 for wave 3. In the meantime USDMXN could easily stay in the downtrend within wave C with room even down to 18-17 area.
What we want to say is that Crude oil can easily stay up, while USDMXN pair can face even more weakness, just be aware of short-term pullbacks.
Trade well!
USD/CHF (NFP INFO) According to my latest analysis, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) should be "Positive" with a small increase in MOM average hourly earnings, this will boost the USD and bring the gold down, and I hope you understand the correlation between CHF & GOLD (they move in the same pace) that's why watching the bigger picture the pair is in an uptrend, but in a couple of hours, there will be a decline in the price until the NFP report comes out.
First, we will short the pair to 1.0042.
2nd, we start buying from entry point 1.0042 with TP 1.0145 (risk-reward 1:3)
Good luck to all!
A Possible Correlation Between Bitcoin & Dow Jones ?After observing carefully, I see that there is a pretty good correlation between bitcoin period 2018 - 2022 and dow jones for the period 1956 - 1961.
And it turns out that the btc-dji correlation is also likely can be applied to some alts. Below are some examples I've tried to correlate.
$XRP to $10
$XTZ to $40
$RUNE to $90
This post is purely for sharing ideas, not a financial advice
Bitcoin-Gold Correlation and Potential OutperformanceBitcoin bottoms and high-return periods often align with high correlation to Gold. We have that today.
Arguably it allows Bitcoin to move more freely, more like hard money (what it is designed to be) and more organically.
It is much better when Bitcoin is correlated to Gold as opposed to stocks.
Ethereum/Bitcoin: Overview correlationEthereum look that has a bearish evolving in weekly timeframe, what it's a moment to sell Ethereum as Ethereum can to make a deep impact in front of U.S. Dollar in front of this bear market what crypto living today.
Also, it's obviously that Bitcoin it's still bearish, one of the best strategy to accumulate Bitcoin using altcoin it's knowing the 3 key points:
1. U.S. Dollar value
2. Ethereum/Bitcoin or Altcoins/Bitcoin
3. Using Bitcoin dominance (to know when Bitcoin it's weak as strong in the trend)
That it's a smart strategy that I ever learned throughout of my crypto-experience since 2018.
So, there're a lot way to accumulate Bitcoin like making trading and find up consistent ROI, hold Bitcoin and using the old strategy that I know when we analyze altcoin in the strong dominance, that will be the case that they rise up in front of Bitcoin value. An also, you can to make trading in some crypto-broker that offer a lot instruments in the financial market like Forex, stocks, crypto or commodities and the benefit of them it's when we see a U.S. Dollar strong, a Bitcoin strong, an Ethereum strong, we could to change it for the convertibility to fiat to Bitcoin or Ethereum, or Bitcoin to Ethereum, and more.
A good broker called Prime XBT offer it to trade this thing.
But well, more later I will deepen this theme about Bitcoin and altcoins
Technically, we see that Ethereum/Bitcoin look in this bearish side, as Ethereum look more weak in front of Bitcoin value, I hope a drop in the Ethereum in front of Bitcoin value that could to reach down toward 0.038 BTC in the next month, it's a good chance to buy Ethereum later to accumulate a lot quantity of Bitcoin or an smart strategy it's making trading and starting to buy Bitcoin now and find up a goal like 20% monthly and each month re-buy more Bitcoin and then successively. Because as right now Bitcoin and Ethereum down, later of this bear market, I look that Bitcoin could to take more influence in front of Ethereum and altcoins giving us a clue of what the dominance could stand up after that Bitcoin repeat the same cycle in 2019 when Bitcoin dominance climb and altcoin weak in front of Bitcoin value. But for that, its essential to know every situation of each altcoin as I prefer that Bitcoin goes climb and Ethereum still more weak in the next month, and also a fix target could be 0.023 BTC for Ethereum/Bitcoin.
So guys, this it's a fundament and vital information if you want to know where to invest your own money later of this bear market. First starting to buy Bitcoin and accumulate Bitcoin and keep away of Altcoins for now and starting to accumulate Bitcoin for now and learn to make trading if you want to grow up your Bitcoin assets. Until the U.S. Dollar still more stronger, it's a way to apply it and change Bitcoin or Altcoins for Dollar when Bitcoin/Dollar may to weak and then, you must to re-buy Bitcoin in the deep and hold it. It's very hard to understand it, but if you have an ability, you can to get success in crypto-markets .
I hope that this information support for you. A lot content like this will be created very soon!!!
Keep update!!!
CHFJPY to fallOn weekly timeframe, CHFJPY has reached an overbought zone (RSI), an intersection between upper channel and horizontal support.
On lower timeframe, we've seen a big rejection recently, and then a correction upward : here we reach the 80~88% fib levels of the last rejection (D1), with a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday. This behavior can be a potential sell signal.
If we follow correlation to compare currencies, we find more confirmation : USDJPY has reached very high levels too fast, becoming overextended, and JPY will probably start a correction soon, meanwhile USDCHF is retesting a daily resistance for the fourth time, giving bullish signals, not yet an overextended move.
Goodluck,
Joe.
GOLD SELL IDEAGold is weak and should be reaching for 1447.38
A great confluence is the sells we have on EurUsd currently...
Crude Oil Can Be Turning Back To Bullish ModeCrude oil has been trading south for the last couple of months, but the price action is not so strongly bearish anymore and the wave structure is getting overlapped. It means that Crude oil is running out of steam within an ending diagonal (wedge) shape.
Well, with current break out of that wedge pattern and with recovery above the upper ending diagonal line, seems like Crude oil found the support. However, from technical point of view keep in mind that bulls can be confirmed only above 97.50 region.
One of the main reasons why Crude oil can be supportive is bearish USDMXN as they are in negative correlation. Looking at the USDMXN daily chart we can see it clearly bearish, currently finishing a big bearish triangle formation within wave B. So, it can send the price even lower within wave C towards February 2020 pandemic lows.
Respecting the price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott wave perspective, seems like USDMXN will face more weakness, while Crude oil may start recovering in an impulsive fashion.
Happy trading!
Correlation between FX and Equities! (Chicken or the Egg?)Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
Traders all over the globe are constantly looking for an edge, something that's going to give them an extra indication on market directional movements prior to them unfolding. I know from personal experiences and from chatting people at the firm that many traders lean towards finding correlation between the equities market and the FX market. There are a lot of analysts out there that say the equities market is what moves the FX market, and in return there are a lot of people that say the FX market is what moves the equities market.
So, which one is it?
Reality is will never know. There have been many of times where the FX market and shows clear indication of direction and then about a day later or a few hours later we have the equities follow suit. For example the RBA's recent decision to hike interest rates by .25% instead of 0.5% sent the Aussie dollar down, but when you move over to the AUS200 or look at General Equities in the ASX, you'll see that they had their biggest day in 2.5 years.
Then there are times, and this is more into day trading, where the indices in the equities movements tend to correlate well moving into the FX markets.
So there is evidence to support both sides. Not ideal.
It goes without saying that correlation between equities and FX is slowly starting to fade as volumes kick up since we are in the technologically advanced era. But, what is or was the correlation and how does it work?
The basic theory (aged) is that when equity markets rise, confidence in that specific country grows well, leading to an inflow of funds from foreign investors. Therefore, equities go up, FX value goes up. It's simple supply and demand when you look at it. If the equities are going up and you're a foreign investor and you want to buy into those equities, it creates demand for holding, let's say, the US dollar if I wanted to buy into the S&P 500.
On the flip side, when the equity markets are falling. Then confidence falters, causing investors to convert their invested funds back to their own currencies outside of that country.
This is a general theory and I don't recommend basing any of your trading decisions on this, because if you actually have a look at the charts and the correlation, you'll notice that recently it's not been too hot. While you do get a general directional bias, one tends to move before the other and they tend to be quite random in which one goes first. If you have the ability or the skill to be able to work out when something is correlating and when something isn't, then for sure I think you'll be able to find an edge in the market trading some kind of correlation between equities and FX.
One correlation I have seen to be quiet useful in recent times is the S&P 500 And the Nikkei. Although in the Asian session the Nikkei is open in the S&P 500 isn't. Usually you see the S&P move and the Nikkei follow suit. Keep an eye on that correlation and tell me if you find any patterns.
As a whole, trading correlations can give you an edge in the market. It can provide you with valuable information when it comes to trading, whether you are trading FX or trading Equities. But it's not as simple as it seems. It will take more diving and understanding the markets on a deeper level to know when their correlating and to know when to ignore.
I hope you guys have enjoyed this article. If so, please give us a like leave and a comment. It does help the post a fair bit and I'll see you next week for some more content. Happy Trading!
-Jordon Mellor
EUR is about to offer a great selling opportunity in daysEUR is fundamentally bearish currency due to all sorts of problems. It will turn down at some point.
Technically, there are no more clear levels to the upside, only the yellow Break of Structure near 1.556 This means there will likely be a significant spike above where we are now.
But I will not enter hastily. I also watch other charts and I would like SP500 to top in the Premium Zone between 0.5 and 0.8 Retracement. This needs to happen at roughly the same time. Both SP500 and EUR started to rally at roughly the same time, both shall die at the same time, also.
LINK, DOT, FIL & ICP - Coincidence ?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
I find these 4 altcoins interesting.
📌LINK, DOT, FIL and ICP have been stuck inside a range 5.0 and 10.0
For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the 10.0 round number and resistance.
Meanwhile, as we approach the 5.0 round number / demand zone, we will be looking for short-term buy setups.
What a coincidence! or is it? 😉
What do you think? Is there any correlation among these 4?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
