GOLD vs BITCOIN => Who Will Win?First of all, I would like to thank @TradingView for this chart combination!
I found XAUBTC chart interesting. Here is why.
XAUBTC has been bearish for a while. HOWEVER...
We can clearly see that the impulse movements are getting smaller and flatter . (as shown by the angles highlighted in blue)
So from a market structure perspective, this is an early alert that the buyers are losing strength, and we might have a potential reversal soon. BUT WHEN?
For the buyers to take over, and the momentum to be shifted, XAUBTC has to break above the last swing high. (around 0.04 - 0.05)
If this happens and XAUBTC goes up => it means:
Scenario 1 - GOLD UP, and BITCOIN DOWN
Scenario 2 - GOLD UP, and BITCOIN UP with Gold moving up more aggressively
Scenario 3 - GOLD DOWN, and BITCOIN DOWN with Bitcoin moving down more aggressively
Which scenario is more likely to happen in your opinion? and Why?
~Rich
Correlation
Gold and the Dollar are not friendsGold is really about the US Dollar strength. I've shown the inverse correlation in other charts before, but not on this 15 min time frame.
The relationship is startling.
So - if you believe the dollar is going to go significantly north, there is hardly any point going long on Gold.
If you believe that a Dollar Surprise is coming (see my post on that), then are you long on Gold? Think about it.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
The japan titans & worldwide investors have made up their mindAnother idea on the yen which is waking up from its slumber of uncertainty, its 3 years slumber 😴. Which allows me to activate my crystal ball & predict the future.
Hey I even threw an indicator in here, some nobs like them, it pops out but maybe not everyone sees it, the yen is breaking with conviction for the first time since December 2016.
If you don't get what this means just keep reading.
Back in 2016 the stock market was stagnating, George Soros kept shorting it, many funds were shorting it, the JPY had a major decline after a choppy uptrend then some sideways, and after the big very visually noticeable Yen decline, the US stock market had this big big rally for all of 2017 that Trump kept throwing at everyone.
This should clarify things, if it doesn't well contact me to get roasted for free 😀:
If you zoom in in 2016 you even get the same shadow from all the useless parasites stat-arbing this
BoJ next meeting 18 or 19 March, rate going to stay the same for sure, continuing to boost the economy, really boosting the Wall Street hedge fund industry economy.
As a conclusion, perma-bears are going to get laughed at again on CNBC Squawk Alley and other intelligent programs.
Poor Peter Schiff. Nouriel Roubini the great nobel prize is recommending to short since 700 points LOL it's going to 5k soon.
The boy that cried wolf is coming soon, no one is going to listen to any warnings, they must be sick of uncertainty & fear and more convinced than ever.
US 10Y 6%+ jump scared investors, triggering another selloffAfter pulling back from 1.56% and consolidating for two days this week, US 10Y yield started to moving again!
From the daily chart, it's inevitable as the recent demand zone holds very well!
What I'm expecting is the below two scenarios:
1. yield keeps going up and investors are scared to flee the stock market. Bull market ends!
2. yield keeps going up and investors are concerned first, but eventually shrug off the yield hike. Bull market continues!
Personally, I prefer to the second one. By looking back and studying the history, bull market ended with fed rate hiking. US 10Y yield weigh on the market, but the decision maker is the target rate.
So, my overall asset allocation strategy is buying the dip. There is warning for sure, but it's not over yet!
Where will NQ go today(March 4th, 2021)In this 10 minutes video, I discussed where the NQ might go after yesterday's drop. Some highlights are as below:
1. Price is coming down to a key support zone (Weekly & daily)
2. Two possible scenarios
3. Review some trading opportunities on 5 min and 1 min in the overnight session(mainly Asian session)
4. Check US 10Y yield and crude oil(linked with inflation) to predict today's move
New Range of Gold, US 10Y and next possible moves!In this video, I reviewed the price move of gold and identified new zones for gold. Some highlights are as below:
1. The relationship between US 10Y yield and gold
2. New range formation and why?
3. How to trail your stops on smaller TF and pattern you need to pay attention to
From US10Y Yield to Tesla and JPMIn this video, I explained the logic of recent market move caused by US 10Y yield. Actually, what caused the volatility doesn't matter at all, the key is what you're going to do.
Some highlights are as below:
1. Why JPM rallied in the recent month?
2. Concern of the US 10Y rally continue to weigh on stocks..
3. Similar pattern between US 10Y and JPM
4. Valuation drove the buyers to cheap stocks.
Enjoy your trade. Be careful if you're using leverage to trade stocks, like Tesla.
BEWARE OF POTENTIAL REVERSAL - OBSERVATION WEEK COMING - ZB-30MNThe T-Bond 30 Years ZB is falling when the S&P500 is rising, Shouldn't it be the opposite when the economy is not going well?
Beware of the possible super return of trends that might come soon.
What about the timing at the moment?
We notice that at open or 2h after American open an acceleration of the price movement occurs. Also at London closing time.
What about the forces?
Forces are clearly dragging the prince down but no vision in where the price is going.
What about correlations?
Opposite correlation with S&P500, ES.
Same direction with Gold, GC.
The green vertical line is at the time in which tomorrow, Monday 21st, we probably should see some nice movements if the market price follow same pattern as during the week before.
We will still observe during next week. To repeat again, beware of trend sudden reversal. Probably, you can use this chart in combination of your S&P500 trading session, going in opposite direction.
EURUSD - Get in on RETEST (See DXY Chart)EURUSD seems to have faked us out last week and now is creating another high. The way we can enter this is if we wait for a impulse and a retest on the neckline shown on the chart. With this, we can have a tight stop loss.
See DXY chart below for correlation. DXY down = EURUSD UP
Is EUR/GBP indicating the S&P500 Crash ?The last test of the weekly trendline in EUR/GBP was the March 2020 Crash, thats when EUR/GBP spiked up 1200 pips within a few weeks.
Now price is moving close to the Trendline again, could this be a indication for the S&P500 Crash, i think so.
Those that follow my Charts know that im looking for a Market crash in the next few moths, it seems like This EUR/GBP trendline could be a Indication for it.
This correlation can be seen in most EUR pairs, i also posted a important EUR/AUD chart about this a few days ago, all of them give the same indication, they could be Indicating the Market crash from the technical side.
This proofed to be working in 2000 / 2008 and March 2020, will it work again? Lets see.
USDJPY correlation with interest rates USDJPY has been bullish for the past four weeks. Of interest is that the spot currency is moving in tandem with treasury yields.
What's next for the USDJPY?
It has approached a strong level of resistance and a 50-week moving average
I'll be monitoring the currency to determine whether it will break the 50-week moving average as rates keep rising.
AUD/USD headed to the down side AndrewTheSage reporting to you live. My charts are messy and colorful. I am not a financial advisor I use arrows and different types of fib levels to show what's going on.. I will not put up an essay. I feel if you can read a chart you can understand what's going on with price by showing you a visual effect. The Dollar is going up....notice as the dollar goes up notice the negative correlation it has on AUD/USD it's going down mirroring the opposite.
Cycle is up for the Aussie. Cycle is up for silver.Check the related idea for USDRUB. It is a very similar story but the Australian dollar has an even stronger correlation to silver. Longer term cycle turned up in March. And now inside a topping medium term cycle there is a rising smaller cycle - which is up until mid April - same as silver. Upside price target is 0.85 for AUD. Remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
BTC Bull Run Not Over BTC vs. USDOLLAR A quick idea.
This is BTC compared to USDOLLAR.
For the most part you can see when USD goes down BTC goes up and vise versa.
USD seemed to be breaking out of the falling wedge like it did previously that marked the end of the last bull run.
But is has went back under and is continuing on a downtrend.
This is good for BTC.
US 10Y continue to weigh on stocksNeedless to say the importance of US 10Y treasury yield. It is used as a proxy for many financial matters.
From the daily chart, I can clearly see that price has completed the pullback and is very likely to rise. It will weigh on the stock market at least for a short period of time.
Given the OMO of Fed, I think the bull market is far from over. However, the recent drop, as well as the WSB, indicate the high volatility in the near future. It's been up for quite a long time. It's better to take a while before heading up again.
BTC and ETH Correlation from + to - ! Now What?Hello everyone, hope you are having a fantastic trading week!
Bitcoin and Ethereum have been trading in Sync as shown by the blue projection, both making higher highs, and higher lows almost together.
Lately, the positive correlation we used to see started to fade away! and in fact, ETH and BTC are now trading in the opposite direction.
As you can clearly see, BTC is trading inside a descending channel while ETH is trading inside an ascending channel.
What Next?
Are we going to see the positive correlation back by Bitcoin trading higher from here to catch up with Ethereum?
Is now Ethereum leading?
I find the comparison very interesting. What do you think will happen?
AUDUSD Correcting. Uptrend still intact.#AUDUSD:
(1D):
Also here the USD is getting weaker, resulting in a clear uptrend, which is confirmed by the 200 EMA as well. After last complex consolidation, the chart has been overextending for quite some time, so consolidation was to be expected.
(4H):
On a shorter period indeed, we have a downtrend. We recently had a fakeout to the downside, when sellers tried to accelerate without result.
(1H):
Right now, we have a range which means indecision in the market. This also means that we could see a deeper correction, as well as a strong uptrendtrend rebound if broken to the upside. This aligns with gold analysis (AUD positively correlates with XAU).