$NXST: COVID / Tech Hangover?This one may be a bit risky but valuations are below the historical average and there's is some possibility that the divisions we've been seeing over COVID vaccines leads to a more local-focused population. People getting back to what's real and the issues that actually affect them in order to recalibrate to a sense of normalcy. If there is a tech hangover, I believe you'll find it priced in here first. XLC has been slippery though so we'll see how this plays out.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Thai Baht May Outperform as Tourism Slowly Boosts EconomyThe Thai Baht has been cautiously gaining ground against the US Dollar since December despite recent volatility in stock markets.
In fact, USD/THB recently broke under a key rising trendline from early 2021, confirming the breakout. Key support below appears to be the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
Tourism is a key component of Thailand's economy, which has been hampered due to the global pandemic. But, as countries around the world gradually move forward with vaccinations and natural immunity, a gradual comeback in local tourism may boost the economy, perhaps setting the Thai Baht on course to outperform in the medium to long term.
In the event of a turn higher, critical resistance seems to be the 33.861 - 34.000 resistance zone, where breaking above may open the door to resuming the dominant uptrend. Further Covid-19 variants also risk derailing domestic growth expectations.
Clearing the 200-day SMA exposes the November and August lows. In the long run, key below seems to be the 29.718 - 29.842 range.
PFIZER (PFE) BUY STRATEGY TA SCENARIO IDEAI made a personal TA on NYSE:PFE using FIB retracements to define when to buy the current pullback reversal.
PFE is currently in a very clear uptrend an its previous pullbacks "reversed" at aroung 50%-61.8% FIB so i think that this current pullback is going to reverse at around 50%.
Before buying:
Check Rsi bounceoff and SMA positionning to form a support
Check if EMA's are likely to cross (strong uptrend)
Dont wait to buy at exactly 50% fib level, price may reverse earlier and you miss the dip/opportunity, or you miss a lower dip at around 61.8%
If price drops further down, may be a sign of a trend reversal !
!! This is not investing advice, you shouldn't (At all) follow my buy setup, this is a personal TA which may differ from yours.
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IS THIS THE BOTTOM FOR BITCOIN???Well would you look at that, a Bitcoin analysis.
Opting for the Higher time frames here, from the chart above we have 4 trendlines, all of which have played significant roles in bitcoin achieveing it's current price action.
Looking at the trendline that initiated the bounce on November in the year 2011, bitcoin has found itself at the trendline once again after a tiresome year of sideways movement. You could say this is the bottom.
Now in march year 2020, a sell-off came about due to the news of Covid-19 which was a life event that threw technical analysis out the window and saw us create a new trend support.
Prior to that, Bitcoin took a bounce off the first trend support shown in the chart and went up all the way to our current trend resistance to make a local top of 13.9k before initiating the covid sell-off event, a move which spanned 9months(274days) from local top to global bottom and still managed to close the month just above our Nov. '11 trend support. (Which means it is a strong area of support)
Right now, bitcoin once again has hit that same resistance where the local top was made, and is at the trend support from which the sell off eventually closed its candle but is also on the 9th month of the move (but 275 days instead). Should this monthly candle close without making a sell-off to the covid trendline, i can confidently say this is the bottom and that we would see new highs including a cycle top this year by at least Q2.
But becareful, some alts still havent reached support, so it is possible that this isn't the bottom.
If you agree with this idea, pls make sure to like and leave your thoughts in the comments section.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
INDIA COVID Wave incoming Update IIIA week later from the last update, we see a massive spike in the COVID cases.
First, as expected since Oct 20, at the turn of the year, the next wave is set upon India.
Second, this wave is very sudden and much bigger in magnitude, particularly in the last week. This will translate to a longer tailing off in the months to come.
Third, a new trajectory is projected, one that is a lot steeper.
Yet again, this projection model works spot on...
GOLD This is what to watch!Hello All!
Gold is still consolidating in the weekly triangle also following the weekly 200MA.
A break out from this triangle will push towards new ATH or search for buys near the supply support levels.
A break from support would be bad news for Gold however much less likely due to the current political climate & current events.
Pound shrugs off sharp UK dataThe British pound has posted very slight gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3720, up 0.09% on the day.
The pound is yawning despite better than expected UK data today. GDP jumped 0.9% m/m in November, above the consensus of 0.4%, while Manufacturing Production rose 1.1% m/m, crushing the estimate of 0.2%. Both readings were above the October releases, indicating that the UK recovery continues. GDP for Q4 is expected to reach or surpass the pre-Covid level (Q4 2019), barring a disappointing December GDP report.
We continue to see a rotation out of US dollars this week, with the British pound and other majors racking up impressive gains of around 1 percent. The driver behind the US dollar's weakness has been elevated risk appetite, which has not waned despite exploding Omicron cases, a soft nonfarm payrolls report and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The markets appear to have an answer for all of these developments. The Omicron wave has not wreaked havoc on the global economy, US wage growth is strong, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is confident that red-hot inflation in the US will ease during the year. Still, risk sentiment can change quickly, and I would not be surprised to see a US dollar comeback in the near term if Omicron is more damaging than anticipated or if inflation heads even higher.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under intense criticism after revelations that his staff held parties during the height of the Covid lockdowns. One party was apparently held the night before the funeral of Queen Elizabeth's husband, and a poignant photo of the Queen sitting alone during the funeral has made Party-Gate look even worse. The latest political crisis has not made a dent in the pound's upswing, perhaps because Johnson is no stranger to controversy or an indication that investors are more concerned about inflation and omicron rather than partying at 10 Downing Street.
There are support lines at 1.3482 and 1.3372.
GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.3708. This is followed by resistance at 1.3818
ARDS 1250% upside potential according to H.C. Wainwright !!!Analyst Vernon Bernardino from H.C. Wainwright reiterated a buy rating and $19 price target on ARDS: "the cocktail binds to the S2 spike protein subunit, which mediates viral cell membrane fusion in SARS-CoV-2 variants and also binds to the omicron variant with no loss in affinity compared to the original Wuhan strain."
Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc 's monoclonal Covid-19 Antibody Cocktail is potentially First-in-Class treatment!
Cantor Fitzgerald also said last week that Aridis' pipeline is "underappreciated."
ARDS Pan-Coronavirus Monoclonal Antibody Cocktail Retains Effectiveness Against the Omicron variant, other COVID-19 Variants, SARS, MERS , and the Common Cold Human Coronaviruses.
It provides relevant drug levels for up to 1 year from prophylactic or therapeutic treatment.
Market Cap of only 21.22Mil
52 Week Range 1.49 - 8.47
You can buy the all time low now!
ADGI Potential Neutralizing Activity Against Covid-19 VariantsAdagio Therapeutics announced its lead monoclonal antibody has neutralization activity against the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2.
Adagio is evaluating ADG20 in its global Phase 2/3 clinical trials for prevention and treatment of COVID-19.
Adagio is engaging with the FDA regarding protocol updates to its global Phase 2/3 clinical trials.
My price target is the $14.5 resistance.
Aussie steady ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7172, down 0.14% on the day.
December job numbers in the US were mixed. The nonfarm payrolls report was a major disappointment, with a gain of 199 thousand, compared to a forecast of 425 thousand. Despite the soft nonfarm payrolls reports, investors remain hawkish about a Fed rate hike and the major currencies posted gains against the US dollar on Friday. The mixed jobs report is unlikely to change the Fed's lift-off date for a rate hike, which will likely come in mid-2022, although the markets have priced in a March hike at above 70%.
On the positive side, the US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.9% and wage growth climbed 4.7% y/y, above the estimate of 4.2%. As we saw with the JOLTS Jobs Openings release last week, there are jobs to be had, but the difficulty is finding workers to fill the vacancies.
Australia starts the event ball rolling on Tuesday, with the release of Retail Sales for November. The consensus stands at 3.9%, after a gain of 4.9% in October. The circus over star tennis player Novak Djokovic and whether he can remain in Australia for the Australian Open has overshadowed the skyrocketing Covid numbers. Australia is reporting over 1 million infections, as businesses are grappling with staff shortages due to sickness or isolation rules. So far, the government has avoided new lockdowns, but if the infection rates continue to rise, lockdowns could be reimposed which would hamper economic activity.
There is resistance at 0.7263 and 0.7343
AUD/USD has support at 0.7116 and 0.7049
GBPUSD POTENTIAL BUYAs you know GBP were bullish since a month ago. its because the fundamentally factor. BoE rate high is the key on this situation. meanwhile the fed still not yet take action on the inflation. that makes gbp strong on the fundamental side. as you know that on the last nfp ,the report was so bad. that makes dollar more in suffer these day. investor still waiting for the fed to take action on this inflation situation and covid stuff. on technical analysis, gbp testing the 50 SMA on the daily chart. make possibility to goes up to test the 1.37000 side.
COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany.
Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more.
But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why?
Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture.
Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important.
It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How?
If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise.
If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero.
Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December.
Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation.
Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services.
Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron.
Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
Thai SET impact from covid19 delta and omicron bad omensBBL ; price plummetted after fear started , when situation got to the worst, price already go up for days, as many can speculate the end of delta wave
at a point, price open gap up, which favor strategy of short and DCA buy back over weeks
gap up 23 aug , dropdown wks=... not quite gap down, more gradual price downtrend, downswing = 9, upswing= 11
kbank ; gap up 23 aug , dropdown wks=4, downswing = 9, upswing= 13
TMB bank (TTB) ; gap up 23 aug , dropdown wks=4, downswing = 17, upswing= 20+ up to now(jan22)
siam cement company (SCC) ; same time gap up but last only 2-3 wks then down for 14 wks, now on uptrend for 4 wks but will see extent of omicron impact
siam cement's paper&packaging company (SCGP) since ipo in 2020 it soared up and up, its theme of online shopping play important role in covid-era. So contradicting price fall
when others went up in late august & start 6 wks downtrend. jan 2022 might start another down trend, as we already had 13 uptrend candles (TD sequential 13)
but will SCGP be seen as covid-defensive stock might limit its downside
From my humble, non-expert, nooby personal opinion, Thai's bluechip stocks could be in danger of omicron impact.
Fundamentally ; afternoon of 5th Jan 2022, SET start falling, without apparent drop but retrospectively ,we guessed insider who seen omicron rising selling a chunk. 6th is public awareness of both us interest rate amped up & earning yield gap in downtrend, Thailand’s institutional side sells twice as much as foreign investor with 3x local investor buying the SET at 1660.
growth of income/profit from SET100/SET50 depends on both domestic economy & tourism alike which both of which would be crippled by this covid19's wave
Technically ' Thai's SET50 index plummetted 8 of last 8 times it hit resistance/support of 979- 999.
UK COVID-19 Extended Wave Spikes in 2022Back in 3 Nov, a month before Omicron was introduced to the world, it was described as:
" it is rising into 2022. Just how bad remains to be seen."
From the weekly chart... it's BAD.
Do remember (and check) that at the end of October, and early November, many thought that the cases were decreasing and although there was some expectations for an increase in winter, no one thought it would be this bad.
Enters Omicron and we are looking at new dynamics.
Do recall that previous projections noted an extended wave... Here it is.
Yet another example of the working of this projection model and it's effectiveness.
Take care and stay safe peeps!
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 ONChart speaks a thousand words...
Wave 4 is ON now.
In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022
#marapr2022
INDIA COVID Wave incoming Update II Previously (see linked idea), the MACD model projected " a new wave should be approaching and happening in India in December 2021, going into 2022."
This was back in October 20, 2021
Just started as expected! Seen that the last week of 2021 and first week in 2022 is registering a spike, and a greater spike following.
Albeit the spike is not as pronounced yet, but expected as now we have Omicron. Back in October 20 at time of posting, Omicron was not yet identified. It was only made known in early December 2021.
Another example PROOF that the projection model works!
Going forward, it appears that serious acceleration of the spread should start end January and once February turns round.
ARDS Covid-19 Antibody Cocktail | Massive Bullish DivergenceThe chart speaks for itself: ARDS is in a massive bullish divergence at all time low levels from which can explode anytime soon!
Recently, analyst Vernon Bernardino from H.C. Wainwright, who reiterated a buy rating and $19 price target on ARDS , told investors that Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc 's monoclonal Covid-19 Antibody Cocktail is potentially First-in-Class treatment: "the cocktail binds to the S2 spike protein subunit, which mediates viral cell membrane fusion in SARS-CoV-2 variants and also binds to the omicron variant with no loss in affinity compared to the original Wuhan strain."
Cantor Fitzgerald also said last week that Aridis' pipeline is "underappreciated."
ARDS Pan-Coronavirus Monoclonal Antibody Cocktail Retains Effectiveness Against the Omicron variant, other COVID-19 Variants, SARS, MERS , and the Common Cold Human Coronaviruses.
It provides relevant drug levels for up to 1 year from prophylactic or therapeutic treatment.
Market Cap 27.124Mil
52 Week Range 1.89 - 8.47
I think this might be our 10X stock for 2022.
ARDS Covid-19 First-in-Class Antibody | +818% Analyst Rating ! Analyst Vernon Bernardino from H.C. Wainwright, who reiterated a buy rating and $19 price target on ARDS, told investors Wednesday that Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc 's monoclonal Covid-19 Antibody Cocktail is potentially First-in-Class treatment: "the cocktail binds to the S2 spike protein subunit, which mediates viral cell membrane fusion in SARS-CoV-2 variants and also binds to the omicron variant with no loss in affinity compared to the original Wuhan strain."
Cantor Fitzgerald also said last week that Aridis' pipeline is "underappreciated."
ARDS Pan-Coronavirus Monoclonal Antibody Cocktail Retains Effectiveness Against the Omicron variant, other COVID-19 Variants, SARS, MERS, and the Common Cold Human Coronaviruses.
It provides relevant drug levels for up to 1 year from prophylactic or therapeutic treatment.
Market Cap of only 32.605Mil
52 Week Range 1.89 - 8.47
I think this might be our 10X stock for 2022.
Happy New Year!
Covid strike back AGAINThe new covid strain "Omicorn" is spreading quickly all over the world.
The obvious play for covid is investing in vaccines.
PFE all time high is $61, currently its at $58.
Where MRNA all time high is $500, currently its $248. Thats 50% discount from ATH.
Technical:
There is a clear strong support trend line that we're bouncing off.
BlueWave is setting up to give a green dot buy signal (bottom wave green dot is the strongest of signals on bigger time frames)
BVXV innovative COVID-19 nanosized antibodiesBiondVax has signed definitive agreements with the Max Planck Society and the University Medical Center Göttingen to enter into a strategic collaboration for the development and commercialization of innovative COVID-19 nanosized antibodies (NanoAbs).
NanoAbs exhibited in-vitro neutralization of all COVID-19 variants of concern including Delta, and based on in-silico studies, Omicron, at significantly lower dose levels than existing antibody treatments.
i know that this is an early stage, but today they announced also that the Former CFO of GSK's Global Vaccines Business Mr. Jay Green Joins BiondVax's Board of Directors.
just to make an idea, GSK has a Market Cap of 111Bil and Jay Green went to a company that has a mk cap of 35Mil.
They also had a public offering at the price of $2.36.
52 Week Range 1.36 - 7.22
My price target is $6
Novacyt ALNOV They have marked the supports and resistances of ALNOV .
It has great upside potential, key level reaching $ 5
Last Friday news Clinical diagnostics specialist Novacyt announced on Friday thatots ‘genesig’ Covid-19 real-time PCR test has been approved in the UK. Great news and great upside potential.
A cordial greeting.
In Spain on 12/28/2021 L.E.D.
Wish you all the best and a happy New Year