Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Follow-up: Will the USD start recovering or what!?Hello traders!
I hope you are having a good week. We will follow up on the analysis from a few days ago talking about the recovery or fall of the US dollar. We can see how the market ends up confirming the bullish flag pattern, also breaking the weekly resistance (in blue) located around 1.2200.
It is still possible that we are facing a false breakup before a dump, recovering the aforementioned area as a resistance, so, in case we want to get into some trades, an alternative to reduce risk is to use cost averaging techniques, taking a small operation and increasing it little by little.
In my opinion, while the market remains above 1.2200, the bullish plans will continue to be viable, being able to reach 1.2300 as an initial goal since it is a psychological level, or even carrying out a rally towards 1.2400 - 1.2500, an area in which we have a weekly resistance that hasn't been visited in years.
Regarding the dollar index $ DXY, from our analysis in which we took a look at how it had behaved in recent weeks, we can see how it has simply continued its bearish course. It recently broke the psychological zone of 90.00, however, it is a too recent break to be able to trust it, since, at the time of writing this idea, it has barely pierced it for a few cents.
Now, with respect to the fundamental factors that are possibly supporting the weakening of the US dollar, we have a similar scenario to the one mentioned in previous ideas. In short, the US Congress remains silent on the new stimulus packages for COVID-19, resulting in uncertainty, causing the dollar to weaken.
Another point that we must consider is Brexit, since the latest news suggested that the possibility of an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom, a situation that has positively affected the Euro and the Great British Pound. However, a no-deal Brexit is still possible, which would bring volatility to the Euro and the Pound, so if we plan to trade these pairs, we must take that into account.
Leave in the comments what you think of this idea and what is your perspective on what is happening in the markets.
Whether you’re gonna sit on your hands and just watch the market or start taking trades, remember to always plan your trades and trade your plan.
Happy weekend folks!
PFIZER IN DEMAND AREAPFIZER recently got FDA approval for COVID-19 Vaccine.
As we see alignment of FIB key level of 0.618 and Volume Profile at this level. I would guess this would bounce back from 36-37 to new highs
S&P 500 at risk amid worst jobs deterioration in monthsThe jobs numbers this week were pretty bad. In both absolute and percentage terms, Thursday's 20% uptick in initial jobless claims was the largest week-over-week increase since March 23, early in the pandemic. The uptick in continued claims was the largest since July 13.
The jobs deterioration comes as Covid-19 case numbers in the US continued to worsen this week. TSA traveler throughput has fallen off somewhat in early December as case counts rise. And to throw in an additional economic risk, Democrats and Republicans in Congress remain deadlocked over what should be in a new stimulus bill.
The one saving grace for this market is that the vaccine rollout begins next week. Hopefully rollout will proceed quickly and case numbers will begin to fall off. Still, I think the market is in a risky place, and we could see a sharp selloff if stimulus negotiations entirely break down. This might be a good place to hedge a bit or sell a little to reduce long exposure to stocks.
TSLA rocket launch! Dec 21Hello and welcome to another analysis.
Keep your eyes peeled for next move up once TSLA officially enters the SP500.
There will be a week of buying and high volume surge.
Position now for the trade of the century.
Do you like my chart?
Will the USD start recovering or what!?Hello Traders!
I hope you're getting off to a good start to the week. This time I want to talk a little bit about what the evolution of the US dollar has been like over the last few days and what the market expects from a fundamental point of view during the next sessions.
The US has been on the spotlight repeatedly over the last few days. This is due to the lots of news that are going on:
Uncertainty about new stimulus
Monetary policy
Vaccines
Influence of events such as the Brexit
New lockdowns
Now, one of the main factors being observed in the market is the approval of new fiscal stimulus, which can attract the bulls to the USD as it would aim to strengthen the economy, however, with the departure of the Trump administration and Biden's entry, the future of these stimulus packages is extremely uncertain, as well as the expiration or renewal on several measures taken by the current administration, which are due in this month.
Probably the uncertainty around these events, combined with expectations about the COVID-19 vaccines and the lockdowns of some states due to the rise in contagions, has caused the USD to enter a lateral phase that has been valid for about a week. On the bullish side, we have demand for the Greenback due to events like the Brexit since some investors see the US dollar as a safe haven.
Now, into the good ol’ technical analysis, in the EURUSD we can see how, after the bullish rally that we observed a few weeks ago, the market entered a lateral phase, which can be explained by the fundamentals mentioned above. This forms a continuation pattern: A bullish flag. Despite the bullish connotation of the formations, we have on the chart, the side phase mentioned above can perfectly be a consolidation phase prior to a bearish rally, especially when combined with certain notes in favor of the bears by indicators such as Stoch, so I’m not picking a side yet.
Personally, I consider that the points where I could start evaluating a long position are either in the confirmation of the bullish pattern with a breakout of the flag, which would make confluence with the breakup of the resistance that we have around 1.2200, or a short one in the bearish breakout of the area around 1.2050 which has been acting as a support level for the lateral phase that we are currently observing.
In the meantime, until we see which side the market is gonna pick, I’ll keep observing what the evolution of this currency pair is over the next few days.
There you have it folks, hope this idea helps! Don't forget to leave your opinion in the comments on what your expectations are for this currency pair.
As always, plan each trade you take and trade the plan!
XAU/USD - LONGS - 1925 before Christmas - SWING TRADE Buying Gold - Swing trade - small risk
Entry 1825
Stoploss 1805
Target 1925
Gold into 1925 before Christmas. Make sure you don’t mis this move 👍
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CVS to the moon! CVS is going to be administering the first wave of vaccines, we could see breakout of the this falling wedge and see some bullish momentum, over 75 FOMO will kick in.
Key levels:
Resistance: 73.49, 74.55
Support: 71.08, 69.18, 67.30
My plan:
Safe: 80C 1/15
Lotto: 75C, 80C 12/18
The Great COVID Candle: A thing of the past or a looming threat?So here we are sitting at almost ATH... but I'm not cheering, and I still wont be if we have a breakout.
I'll elaborate:
As much as I'd like to say this is just about Bitcoin, for 2 examples the same scenario presents itself in markets like DOW Jones and S&P 500, the 3 have recovered from what I'm calling the COVID scare and are sitting at ATH levels (near ATH for BTC). "BTC is decoupled from other markets" is something I hear frequently, in my opinion, nothing is decoupled. Though we try to understand anyways, the world is extremely dynamic and factors beyond 1 persons possible knowledge goes into the fluctuation of prices. This is why having multiple large assets line up into the same awkwardly timed push to significant all-time-highs is alarming to me while we sit in the biggest economic hardship most people will see in their lifetimes. Is it not odd that the markets fully retraced what some people are calling the "COVID crash" before COVID has even been mitigated properly? Remember that nothing is guaranteed in the markets or in real life, including getting an *EFFECTIVE* vaccine which is what people need to remember when trying to justify bullishness with the fact we have vaccines in human trials already.
Some information on the vaccines to remember:
1.) 2 of them are 2-phase vaccines and you have to come back after some time to get the 2nd shot for it to be effective.
2.) It has adverse side-effects that are considered "unpleasant".
3.) These vaccines are not for the weak (people at risk of death for COVID). So only vaxx'ing the people who are considered at risk is not an option.
4.) The oxford vaccine is behind the others and not much data has been gathered on it in comparison to the others although it doesn't require 2 separate injections.
5.) There is a possibility that people do not come back for the 2nd shot due to unpleasantness or whatever other reason.
The wildcard in the formula is DXY, what happens if DXY makes a run to the trend line that starts from 1986? A COVID solution might just set up BTC and the rest of the markets for another wave down after getting crushed if DXY decides to make an untimely run. Of course, once the trend line is hit it should be very bullish for BTC and I look forward to that day, as should most crypto traders/investors. Just remember that a complacent market is an especially dangerous market to be involved in and it is seeming overly euphoric in most crypto groups I'm a part of. As of recent, the ratio of people laughing at any comments I make on the fact we simply "COULD" see a 3k wick is alarming to me and reminiscent of 2017 euphoria.
TLDR; There is a ton of uncertainty in the future with COVID which is ultimately uncertainty with the global economy. Vaccines are being worked on but still nothing concrete that will be a guaranteed solution... yet the markets are fully recovered from what people called the "COVID dump" and are sitting at ATH levels. Be cautious, the markets are not reflecting the real economic state of the world, and certainly not of the USA. This can get ugly very quick.
Thanks for reading!
US Market: About to crash or everything is going "good"?Hello traders!
Hope y'all had a good week. In this post I want to talk a little about the nature of the economic recovery that we have seen in one of the largest equity markets in the world: the USA stock exchange.
Unless you've been living under a rock, isolated and without contact with the outside, you are probably aware about the overall outlook on how the pandemic has impacted different countries. In the U.S there were strong market crashes at the beginning of the year, multiple sessions with market halts, companies going bankrupt and others, mainly on the tech side, significantly increasing their value, among other things.
As the months went by and as optimism about an accelerated economic recovery began to reach the markets, we saw how they started rising again, to the point of reaching all-time highs. However, there are certain things that we cannot ignore when evaluating the character of this rise. On the fundamental side, we have certain aspects that we must consider:
Stimulus packages
The (literally) trillionaire dollar print
Interest rates at 0
There has been much talk that this recovery is nothing more than a result of the stimulus packages delivered by the US government, since many people have used the money to start their trading journey, leading to demand for shares and consequently pushing the price up. This is tied to the gigantic amount of new dollars in circulation, which is intended to combat deflation. (In short, it's when no one spends money because they expect prices to fall, and it can be much more devastating than inflation).
The problem is that, despite all these efforts, inflation continues not to rise and the US government has been left without many alternatives to achieve its goal of 2% per year inflation rate. Since interest rates are already at 0%, the only bullet they have regarding monetary policies is lowering the rates to the negative field.
From a technical analysis point of view, there are certain patterns and clues (circled on the chart) that volume leaves us. If we pay attention, we can see that we have repeatedly seen a significant increase in volume around the areas where the market has made a correction, while the bullish rallies have not been accompanied by a especially high volume. This may suggest, in summary, that when the market makes a correction, there are many more interested in selling than buyers who want to join when the market rises. This in itself is not enough to conclude that we are facing another market downturn, but it is definitely something to consider when analyzing the character of the upward momentum in recent months, especially when contrasting it with the reality that exists in many places, since it does not it exactly reflects a healthy economy that supports rising markets, and while Main Street and Wall Street are different creatures, it's important to consider both.
There you have it folks! Remember that with or without a global economic crisis, we must always plan each trade we make and trade our plan.
I hope this post is useful for you! Leave in the comments what you think about it.
Covid Deaths and SPX Part IIIThis is the shorted and probably final edition of the series and it becomes clear that SPX seems immune to the death rate trends. My expectations that increases death numbers would lead to increased negativity in the market has been twice shown to be unfounded. Broadly speaking the market doesn't believe the official numbers, or they do believe in the numbers but the affect of international quantitative easing is enough to pump everyone's longs anyway.
The middle chart shows that bullish divergence on the MACD histogram can help predict an increased intensity of an uptrend as deaths can only go up. The histogram with bullish divergence also helped find a local low on rate of change. Funny thing, I thought I had done a write up for the bullish divergence on the 3 day death rates as I had used it to go short, but I cannot find it in my chart history and it did call for the September slump in SPX. Which is annoying considering that most of the SPX stuff I have put up between April and now was used for me to flip my position when it was wrong. Damn it.
On the left we see that the weekly MACD has been crossed "bullishly" for two weeks and the rate of change bottomed out just prior.
The right chart shows a whole lot of bearish divergence on the histogram and MACD itself and so this would suggest that a buy the dip opportunity is revealing itself. Recent history has shown that will be quickly bought up in a series of V recoveries.
XAUUSD SHORT POSSITION WITH PULLBACKXAUUSD H4 IN TRADING RANGE AND SHOW WE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WILL BE MAKE ON CHART AND WE ARE SEE SELL PRESSURE IN TOP ZONE
GOLD : FDA Vaccin news, possible gap at openwith COVID-19 Vaccines Authorized for Emergency Use this week from FDA, gold could be hammered with gap at open
Gambling & permabear news n°24> Conspiracy nuts right again: Government geothermal plant has been causing earthquakes in France
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"OMG the government experiments are creating earthquakes"
"Shut up you stupid conspiracy theorist put back your tinfoil hat"
Well this did not age well. The parrot/sheep were dead wrong once again. Of course it is obvious they are not going to learn their lesson.
The 4 december in the morning earthquakes of 2.8 & 3.5 magnitude have been waking up the population of Strasbourg (east of France).
The population, that has been locked at home for a lot of 2020, and is constantly fed fear uncertainty doubt by politicians and their propaganda arm (the media), have not been arguing about conspiracy theories. Weird as they usually do. When they physically feel something they do not argue and they "understand" real quick what is going on. I am willing to bet most of the ones that used to be good parrots are now pretending they "knew all along".
I do not know how wrong or dangerous these operations are but the population physically causing them to feel it has put an immediate end to operations. It is nearly certain that the government will try to continue its operation after a while.
See? Climate alarmists need not worry. Assuming something terrible will happen, the Planck time people will see or feel the effects there will be an immediate end to CO2 emissions (sometimes brutal for those that do not stop).
> Adolf Hitler wins election, swears he has no plans for world domination, disappointing many
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In Namibia, a coastal country bordering SA to the north west, saw Adolf Hitler win an election. It is a former german colony with a german speaking community.
Adolf Hitler must have been very popular because he won with 85% of votes.
Adolf Hitler said he has no plans for world domination, I am reassured.
Before being colonized by the germans the country was peacefully colonized by the bantu in the 14th century, and little by little they managed to become a majority (19th century).
The natives which are now a minority are on a constant decline while the bantu colon numbers keep growing. It became "their land" long ago.
I think minorities (non bantu) are 20-25% of the country (including 7% white).
I wonder if Adolf Hitler has any plans about the minorities of the country?
> Another "profitable" day trader bites the dust: son of billionaire gets confident, loses everything
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Temur Akhmedov the son of a azerbaijani Russian oligarch has been day gambling on the stock market.
His mother is suing him to get money as a reward for divorcing dad. She says they are using this as an excuse to hide money from her greedy hands.
Typical story: The son got into it, started winning, got excited, probably called himself a legend and a master of charts, then hit a losing streak and he was "convinced this loss was just bad luck" as he explained to the court. So what did he do? What every good idiot day trader does, martingale it back! 🤡
He increased his risk "can't keep losing right?" and the market gave him a valuable lesson.
His father was "a one-time fur trader" whatever that means, that made some mistakes early on and said he guesses his son thought he would avoid them.
Daddy is paying him a bank college. Better not waste that big brain potential. Already down 50 million.
Dad might be smart but I doubt mum is, and it's showing through their son.
I am in favor of dating apps or sites if we can add diplomas and iq and common sense tests to them.
> Pfizer vaccine: results not even published yet, causes infertility, big brains start to vaccinate asap
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It appears we are still in the 6th dimension. Pfizer has indicated lactating women should not take this experimental vaccine and has claimed it caused infertility in women for an unspecified period.
No one has the slightest clue what the long terms may be, and other than this all we have are publicity announcements.
Seriously, no results, no research has been even published yet.
Idiots are already taking this vaccine and mocking any doubter. The media is promoting it. Months after the Redemsivir fail.
I don't care if people cry that I hurt their feelings. I will not hesitate to call them idiots to their faces because this is just too much. And it is the truth.
A little story and a question:
- A pilot, known for crash landing once in a while, miserably crashes his plane (called Redemsivir) like a big pile of shit. He gets out limping while the plane catches fire then explodes.
- Limping towards you he goes "hey I got a new experimental plane (called vaccine) completely new tech, haven't had the time to test landing yet and I have no clue how landing works with this type of plane but I'm sure it will go just fine, oh by the way if we crash you cannot sue me a law was passed to protect me, oh and also no you cannot see my license, oh and also we have no parachute"
My question is: What price tag should I put on the bridge I want to sell to the people that run to his plane with a big smile on their face?
The prominent french scientist at the top of his field that has been promoting Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin is rubbing his eyes in disbelief, but the media knows best, and calling him an anti-vaxx, after all he is an anti-science eviiiil climate denier. Ah fun fact, a few years ago the same man, Didier Raoult, was defending a vaccine that reduces mortality by 1/3 or something, but the french gov did not like it and were trying to prove via lies that it causes multiple sclerosis. Guess what? Back then the liberal media (pleonasm) called him "a docteur paid by big pharma". Today the media defends big pharma and calls the multi-laureate an ignorant tinfoil hat antivax 🤡.
> A new type of future sees the light: California water futures (ticker symbol: NQH2O) - via the CME
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The "Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Volume". I made an idea about California infra recently but it hurt some people's feelings and got banned.
Ah the good old "this has nothing to do with trading". If it all has nothing to do with trading, why is there a whole new future contract?
1 month after I note the issues in California (Nov 9) they create this. Might see more, but I don't really follow all the credit swap and state debt management stuff.
www.cmegroup.com
The official statement by Nasdaq: www.nasdaq.com
A quote from an article "Wall Street’s new water market is the latest sign we’re headed toward a Mad Max future".
Congress to fast-track whittled-down infrastructure bill OH WAIT nevermind expert day traders told me this had nothing to do with trading, and day traders know best, my bad.
I am immediately going to prepare a long letter to ICE & CME HQ to let them know day traders explained it had nothing to do with investing and this future is useless as well as the research they publish.
A CME person contacted me offering 100 bucks for an interview (they are making stats on their users) but I am shamed by my small account size so I didn't answer yet. And idk what to say and I want to be honest. But 100 bucks... Maybe I should just pretend to be a day trader and speak about indicators, which would be an accurate representation of the average individual investor. Maybe I should say I am not interested in any of their "hedging solutions" (this is how they call futures) because reality has "nothing to do with investing". I'll suggest they should create random cryptos that serve no purpose other than gambling on them using TA. Futures have been created for gambling right? They have no fundamental purpose right?
But ye... typical Dunning Kruger from me. I am worried about being too noob to answer. I underestimate myself, and then I see the smooth brains that overestimate themselves and remember "oh right".
> "The right side of history": Democrat congresswoman asks armed men to "make them pay" (Trumpers)
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Michigan democratic state representative Cynthia Jones sent a "warning" to Trump supporters during a facebook live video, she asked people including soldiers to "make them pay". She lifts her head up in the video and has a vicious smile: James Bond evil bad guy detected.
She was born and raised in world famous Detroit but the district is outside of it a bit to the north.
"Be careful, walk lightly, we ain’t playing with you."
We are seeing more and more of this. Some state governors have even threatened to leave the union.
"We got some work to do".
She has been disciplined (by house republicans I think). She posted disciplinary documents on her facebook.
She posted a video to "soldiers against racism" after the backlash. "Rise up". Ye... I don't think she is backing down. Actually getting more radical.
What are the checks and balances in place for this kind of behavior other than trusting other representatives? Second amendment?
You know... "Rise up"... "We got some work to do"... "Resume the work"... "Begin your work" these are things that hutu said in the 90s right before and during the Tutsi genocide.
Still think I am an overpessimistic conspiracy theory perma bear?
Some people are going to have a rude awakening one day...
ballotpedia.org
housedems.com
National Socialists, the KKK, radical nationalists, black separatists, anti-muslims, radical muslims, all love her.
Hey maybe Namibia won't be the only country to elect Adolf Hitler this decade.
Al-Qaeda & ISIS still pissing themselves as "decadent west & in particular the USA are collapsing".
Perma bears have little stars in their eyes too of course.
Seing how bears are viewed and treated, maybe soon short sellers are considered a "hate group", and being bearish "hate speech".
AUDUSD IDEA FOR 0.7700 LEVEL APPROACH Although Aussie GDP shrinks 3% on yearly basis it has performed well enough against its counterpart US. A new start of economic activities and covid vaccine reports have boosted its recovery chance. On the monthly chart, the Aussie Dollar breaks above the 0.7400 resistance, and the next resistance for bulls is at the 0.7700 marks.
MEDP approaching new all-time highMedpace is a scientifically-driven, global, full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries.
They do clinical trials for new drugs, including a recent trial for a neutralizing antibody for SARS-CoV-2 for the treatment and prevention of COV19.
With earnings surprises the last two quarters and a Zacks estimate for a strong Q4, Medpace is on track to make a new all-time high.
As it approaches the all-time high, volatility is decreasing while volume is shrinking. There is not much selling going on, so a little demand will cause this to pop above the all-time high and accelerate from there.
Buy point is at 144.49 with a stop loss of 7.63% based on the 10d ATR (x2.7). Position size of R13.1.
Buy Point: 144.49
Stop Loss: 133.47
Position Size: R13.1
MRNA Blow Off Top ConfirmedMRNA broke out of $100 hitting $178 within 4 days on high volume and multiple gap ups. This is significant evidence of a blow off top. Afterwards, we printed a daily bullish engulfing pattern then corrected upwards for 5 days before printing another daily engulfing pattern. The target is $100, which completes the blow off top move and the 1.618 extension of the Wave A move. Blow off tops have sharp moves and just as sharp reversals. I'd expect to see $100 by next week.
ALT Reversal Incoming? +Trade Setup (>168% Profit Potential)Hello Fellow Traders,
Today we are looking at Altimmune Inc (ALT) on the NASDAQ. We can see that on the last bullish wave, prices peaked at around $35. We can see since then a bullish continuation pattern, the falling wedge, has been printed. The price has broken out to the upside, retested the EMAs for support, and bounced back to consolidate just in the $11.75-$12.50 range.W Now, with prices above all EMAs, we can expect additional growth. We can use a larger buy range for this stock because the risk-to-reward is very good. If prices begin an uptrend here, it is a good time to go long. In the long run, a breakout past the ATH of $35 has a Fib target of $52! If you think this is unrealistic, take a look at my last idea on SOLO down below. However, a potential short-mid-term trade set up now could be:
Entry: $11.50-$13.75
Targets: $24.00 (+80%) | $35 (+$1.68%) | $52 (+297%).
Stop loss: daily close below $10.50 (-10%).
Let me know what you guys think down below and leave a like if you appreciate the analysis. Also, check out some of my other ideas and follow my profile for more chart analyses and profitable trade setups! Thanks for reading :)
Price at writing: $12.98
PTON over 116.92This one has been in an uptrend but faked us out for the past few days with a number of false breakouts. Shown here on the hourly, a break outside this box at the trigger should yield a larger move, especially if it can fill the gap above from 117.75 to 122.49. This gap can be used as a more conservative entry. Bollinger band shows room up to 119 on the daily and 141.11 on the weekly. These are not necessarily targets, but show one standard deviation of movement from the 20EMA S/L 115.08.
Hello $2075 The 'Stimulus Optimism Trade' is back
Around the world, major fiat currencies are looking at major devaluation.
In the US, a stimulus deal is in the works with a bipartisan group of lawmakers in discussions for $900+ billion deal to stimulate the economy. Last month's jobs report showed that economic recovery is slowing down. This may have tipped Democrats and Republicans to considering more stimulus.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the EU has been working on a stimulus deal. However, the plan may flop as Hungary & Poland threatening to veto the deal. Reports from Brussels say that policymakers are working to circumvent the two countries. Should the deal go through, the EURO will be under pressure.
Japan's Suga run into problems with convincing lawmakers in the country to approve a $900b deal. His approval ratings are low as second wave of coronavirus spreads in Japan. However, this will put more pressure on lawmakers to pass the stimulus bill.
What's up with Central Banks?
The FED, ECB & BOJ are expected to keep rates low this month. These banks also hold an unprecedented level of assets in form of treasuries and stocks. They won't stop buying until they are convinced that recovery has been achieved.
Why is all these important?
The DXY, EURO & JPY are some of the most used currencies in the world. The actions by governments around the world will devalue currencies leaving metal Commodities as the best safe havens. I expect XAUUSD to break the ATHs in 2021 through to 2023.
