Coronavirus (COVID-19)
USOIL - THE MAIN PROBLEM IS STILL INCREASING COVID !SHORT DESCRIPTION:
- Nothing has changed! We are still inside DOWN TREND channel (long and short term)!
- During Monday trading a huge "HANGING MAN" candlestick has formed, which is a BEARISH SIGNAL!
- (Bloomberg) "Oil slipped with the rapid resurgence of COVID-19 in India and other countries casting a cloud around a return to normal consumption, even as OPEC+ projected a strong global demand recovery this year."
- (Bloomberg) "Indian Oil Corp. is looking to sell gasoline into the spot market -- a potential indication of weak domestic demand. The country’s refiners are being forced to postpone planned shutdowns for maintenance at some plants as workers are either fleeing or falling ill."
- Overall we are still VERY BEARISH!
GLOBAL OUTLOOK (nothing has changed):
- Record COVID cases in INDIA (the world’s third-largest oil importer) could threaten Global Oil Demand!
- The biggest cities in INDIA are on lockdown again this month!
- India’s combined demand for diesel, the most used fuel in the country, and for gasoline is set to plunge by as much as 20% (!) this month compared to March, officials from refiners and fuel retailers told Bloomberg.
- Also rising COVID cases in JAPAN (the world’s fourth-largest oil importer)!
- Japan has declared a state of emergency (shutdown) for Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo from April 25 till 11th May to stop people from travelling and spreading the virus during Japan’s Golden Week holidays from late April through the first week of May!
- And last but not least GERMANY (the world’s sixth-largest oil importer) faces lockdown (curfew) until June as curbs fail to push down cases!
- And not to forget, on April 1, OPEC+ said it would gradually lift daily oil production by 350,000 barrels in May, 350,000 barrels in June, and 441,000 barrels in July and holding back around eight million barrels a day of output!
- All in all, globally it don't look good for oil demand within the next months!
USOIL - THE MAIN PROBLEM IS STILL INCREASING COVID !SHORT DESCRIPTION:
- Nothing has changed! We are still inside DOWN TREND channel (long and short term)!
- During Monday trading a huge "HANGING MAN" candlestick has formed, which is a BEARISH SIGNAL!
- (Bloomberg) "Oil slipped with the rapid resurgence of COVID-19 in India and other countries casting a cloud around a return to normal consumption, even as OPEC+ projected a strong global demand recovery this year."
- (Bloomberg) "Indian Oil Corp. is looking to sell gasoline into the spot market -- a potential indication of weak domestic demand. The country’s refiners are being forced to postpone planned shutdowns for maintenance at some plants as workers are either fleeing or falling ill."
- Overall we are still VERY BEARISH!
GLOBAL OUTLOOK (nothing has changed):
- Record COVID cases in INDIA (the world’s third-largest oil importer) could threaten Global Oil Demand!
- The biggest cities in INDIA are on lockdown again this month!
- India’s combined demand for diesel, the most used fuel in the country, and for gasoline is set to plunge by as much as 20% (!) this month compared to March, officials from refiners and fuel retailers told Bloomberg.
- Also rising COVID cases in JAPAN (the world’s fourth-largest oil importer)!
- Japan has declared a state of emergency (shutdown) for Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo from April 25 till 11th May to stop people from travelling and spreading the virus during Japan’s Golden Week holidays from late April through the first week of May!
- And last but not least GERMANY (the world’s sixth-largest oil importer) faces lockdown (curfew) until June as curbs fail to push down cases!
- And not to forget, on April 1, OPEC+ said it would gradually lift daily oil production by 350,000 barrels in May, 350,000 barrels in June, and 441,000 barrels in July and holding back around eight million barrels a day of output!
- All in all, globally it don't look good for oil demand within the next months!
Singapore COVID-19 Wave 3 UpdateSo... Technical analysis is not the orthodox tool for Pandemic infection monitoring, BUT it appears that IF we can look beyond the box, we can see more, and get ahead of the curve a little more.
This is the SECOND time the Singapore COVID-19 charts are giving us about 6-8 weeks heads up of an imminent spike in COVID-19 cases.
Much could have been done IF we looked closer and took appropriate actions.
Last post on this matter, on 5th March, it was clear and present danger that a 3rd wave spike was to happen in April... and now, we are in the onset of a spike in cases in Singapore.
It should be about another 8 weeks before things we under control...
This is NOT chance, but high probability (though unusual) projection of the dynamics.
You see, the RPM in the middle panel shows that it is not as powerful a run up this time (as previously expected); and the MACD histograms correctly warned of this imminent spike, now indicating that it is probably nearing a peak out.
This predictive model also works for other countries. So it is robust.
Till next time, stay safe and stay healthy!
PS... see related ideas below for the historical tracking
Singapore COVID-19 Wave 3Just noted that the MACD of the Covid-19 Confimred Cases appear to suggest another spike in cases, albeit possibly smaller in magnitude.
MACD hsitograms have crossed to the positive side.
Wait for it... watch it happen!
Take Off With American Airlines With the earnings data of American Airlines just around the corner, now seems like the perfect time to consider going long on ALL's stock at the most opportune moment.
The coronavirus pandemic has pressured the stock as the tourism sector as a whole suffers from low activity - this was exacerbated recently with the global uptick of new cases - but the situation is improving.
AAL has consolidated above the psychologically significant support level at 20.00, which entails the potential emergence of a new bullish trend from said level.
Notice that the price action is currently in the process of establishing a major Falling Wedge which represents a classic trend continuation pattern. Once the price action manages to break out decisively above the Wedge's upper boundary, this would allow for the rally to continue advancing further north. The previous swing peak at 26.00 represents the first major target for the bulls.
Keep in mind that the market is currently ranging - as elucidated by the fact that the ADX indicator is threading below the 25-point benchmark, which means that the price is likely to continue fluctuating within the Wedge in the foreseeable future.
AAL is likely to attempt another false breakdown below 20.00 before it can break the range and establish a new uptrend.
ArcticZymes $AZT Q1 2021 stunning Q1 presentation, up 22% !!!AZTY reported sales of NOK 40.4 million (18.5) and an EBITDA of NOK 25.8 million (9.0) for the first quarter of 2021.
Highlights from Q1 2021
· ArcticZymes Technologies (AZT) had Q1 sales of NOK 40.4 million growing by 119% (Q1 2020: NOK 18.5 million)
· Coronavirus-related sales are estimated at NOK 16.5 million in Q1 2021 (NOK 3.8 million in Q1 2020)
· Gross profit improved to NOK 39.9 million with 99% margin (Q1 2020: NOK 18.5 Million)
· AZT delivered a positive EBITDA of NOK 25.8 million (Q1 2020: NOK 9.0 million)
· Cash-flow for Q1 was positive NOK 23.2 million (Q1 2020: NOK 4.4 million) giving a cash balance of NOK 163.3 million (Q1 2020: NOK 35.7 million)
· Successfully upscaled the SAN HQ production process
CEO Jethro Holter comments:
"We are delighted with the performance of our first quarter as a pure enzymes
company. The ArcticZymes team has delivered the best ever quarterly performance
achieving sales revenues of 40 million NOK and an EBITDA of 26 million NOK. All
market segments have experienced quarterly growth including re-establishment of
molecular research sales to pre-pandemic levels.
Furthermore, the SAN HQ enzyme production process was successfully upscaled 100
-fold. The innovation pipeline and the infrastructure expansion project of R&D
and operations are progressing. Such activities are key to leveraging the
greater potential ArcticZymes Technologies can accomplish through organic
growth."
MRNA & end of the bulls?MRNA has had a few wild weeks going up from $120 to $170.
I believe this could be the end of the bullishness and it may do a correction.
Why do I believe this could happen?
MRNA hit historic resistance of $170, after hitting that mark it began dropping. This resistance seems like it can hold.
RSI is bounced off the 70 mark on the daily chart.
RSI is overbought on the 4HR chart
EMA's are beginning to cross over on the hour charts.
This could be a tiny correction and just bounce off $160 before continuing its path to $200 so I would keep a close eye on the stock.
What I am looking for right now is:
1st support - $160
2nd support - $139_$145
3rd support - $120
At this point MRNA going back down to $100 or even lower seems incredibly unlikely.
Moderna's earnings arent too far away so that could act as a catalyzer that will continue the growth.
In short I believe that MRNA could have hit the resistance and it will either go down to the listed supports or if it stays in these levels then it will most likely stay like this till earnings come which will tell what direction it is going to go from here.
Please comment down your ideas and thoughts on this, I would appreciate any criticism you may have on the charts and analysis, and looking forward to your comments!
I am not a financial advisor, these are my personal ideas an thoughts please do your own research before buying a stock.
Catalent Is about to beat earnings?Now I've been watching Catalent, since they partnered up with one of the stocks I hold for a COVID treatment. Novan. Doing a quick glance at CTLT I noticed a TA pattern known as a double bottom and with certain catalyst coming out, maybe its about to run up and leave this bearish trend.
News
-ER is in 14 days
-They have partnered up with Novan to design the injection of Novan's product that can treat/reduce spread of COVID by 90%, which comes out in Q3.
TA
As you can see the curve lines represents the two bottoms and the top with two white lines pointing at support points. Now note that this could be just a trading zone, yet we will get into the bullish argument.
-MACD a cross over is turning bullish
-RSI is rising, yet would need to break 52.47. Also if you want, you could say its already bullish on the RSI with a small error margin in TA.
-Resistance would be at 110.87, 114.67, and finally the high of 125-127
-Support is at 106.89 and 100.52.
-The emas aren't bad with it ending on top of the 50ema which leans bullish in the short term.
-VPVR levels are really high at where it closes today with the resistance in the VPVR at 113 and the support at 106-107
Final thoughts
It leans bullish if the Double Bottom pattarn plays out and could see it run up nicely on ER. This ER is Q2 for Catalant, so the COVID play will come out sometime after.
NOVAN a biotech stock that might fly very soonDisclaimer: I do own a position and you may want to do your own DD, since this post maybe bias even if its not. Please do your own research.
Novan is a pennystock biotech that picked up steam last fall like many pennystocks, but through out 2021 stocks have been getting hit with biotech and pennystocks/low caps being the worst hit sectors. Cathie Woods states in her investment strategy is buy sectors that are hurt the most and that have the protentional to move higher. Novan is its own patient product of nitric oxide throughout United States and Europe and wants to expand on it.
News
-March 29th The CEO bought 70,000 shares, which is bullish when the CEO is buying
-Voting has started and results come in on May 4th. There are many things in here such as increasing the share count by 15million, which shares off 200million doesn't seem much. This doesn't mean shares will get dumped it just means they have the option to do offerings in the future.
-Q2 (current quater that last till the end of May possibly June) they will get the results of sb206 B, which looks positive. sb206 will the first every treatment for a skin condition called Mollescum. In doing a quick google search, business wire estimates in 2017 there was over 12million cases and half was in the United States. Googling Mollescum cases in the United States go up 200k a year. Now how does Novan fit into this? Well they would be the only FDA treatment on the market, which would send market shares shoring to a billion dollar valution in a short period time (pt would be around $7).
-They also partnered up with Catalent to develop a COVID treatment, which has shown with Novan's product that can reduce the spread of Covid of around 90%. Which catalyst would send Novan to a 10billion dollar valuation, but its up to Catalent. This product is suppose to hit in Q3/Q4, but leans more of a Q3.
Pipeline
-Like ZOM, Novan is also entering the pet care field, but not a device to do testing. On the last webinar investor prestation, they are working to test their product to help skin dieses in dogs and atm are targeting K9s. This would pickup after sb206 and would get more news sometime around q4 or early next year (most likely when they get the marketing of sb206 going).
TA: Now that was alot of "shilling," but its great to know the protentional of a mid/long term play of Novan. It begs the question is if the pennystock is under the radar. Zack Investments and a big advocate in Novan and gave Novan a pt of $4, but 2021 hit and crashed the market. So heres some TA that might help you keep your risk at check if you enter.
-Resistance in the short term is at $1.08, but closing was $1.10 on April 16, so $1.13 would act more of a challenge. After that is $1.32, $1.45, and then $1.63. With tight consolidation in the past between $1.63-$1.76, breaking that could shoot up to $1.96 or $2+
-Support: support is tricky cause we are free falling like most pennystocks such as ZOM. I would say a micro 5min scale, Every $0.02 is support, but on the hourly we could fall as low $0.96, but its unlikely. Last year we gain compliance of the $1, so there's a lot of buyers from here too $0.96 that will keep it above $1. Now if we get a negative catalyst we could drop too $0.86-$0.81
-MACD leans bearish as we look for a reversal
-RSI is oversold and leans bullish for a bounce back with resistance at 46.89. If people wondering where I get these RSI lines, I look at where its uptrending and make a guess where it breaks and the price starts dropping and the RSI goes from overbought to oversold levels.
-VPVR means shit like ZOM's TA, but in the past a lot of support at these levels in the past.
-Current EMA 50 is at $1.27, 128 is at $1.40, and the 200 is at $1.45.
Final Thoughts
Biotechs are risky, but with the CEO buying at $1.40 and seeing the price way below that is a sign to toss in some money or go all in. Its up too you, but I would take the bet and wait this storm out. The confidence between ZOM and Novan is I would pick a stock that has a bigger upside in a near term timeline. Again its best too do your own your research.
ICO Possibly Forming a Nice Bull FlagICO has been in a beautiful trend reversal since Dec 2020 (start of Fib Fan), and has been following the Fib Fan quite nicely upward. I see one of two things occurring in the coming weeks/months:
1. a continuation of the current trend upward, following the fib fan
2. a correction resulting in a Bull Flag, thus also continuing along the current trend
I've been bag holding ICO since September 2017, but with ICO's upcoming COVID research I believe 2021 will be our year!
XAUUSD LONG IDEAS BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICALGOLD ON THE RECESSION AND COVID PANDEMIC
THIS IS JUST AN IDEA AND EDUCATION PURPOSES.
BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL AND PANDEMIC.
MANY COUNTRIES BUYING GOLD AND KEEPING GOLD
TO BACKUP AND BALANCE THEIR ECONOMY AND ETC SINCE
THEY PRINTING A LOT OF MONEY.
WE WILL FOLLOW UP HOW THE MARKET REACTS ON CERTAIN LEVELS.
SUNPHARMA - Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Limited Levels -
Buy - Any dip the CMP or it breaks above 628
T1 - 645
T2 - 700
SL - 610
The undertone of the Pharma sector is bullish amid the second wave of COVID-19 hitting India. Sun Pharmaceuticals has the largest market capitalization and is currently trading at half the price of its all-time high which was close to 1200. The stock has seen a major correction from 1200 levels since FY-15 and now might have resumed a pullback.
Current scenario -
The stock has started trading above all its important exponential moving averages in 5-6 sessions. However the stock has a strong supply zone at the levels of 625-628, so once the stock breaks this level, an upside move up to the levels of 650 followed by 700 looks achievable. A key thing to note here that the stock is trading above all its moving averages and have
NOTE: These findings and levels are purely based upon the knowledge and understanding of the post publisher. The idea here is to predict the future price movements hence, please do not consider this as stock advice or recommendation.
ALNOV NOVACYT Novacyt big fall today, don't worry medium long term still hasn't broken level but keep an eye out for volatility next week we recommend that you buy if you can to the level you think is appropriate, it is a company that in the medium term has high expectations L.E.D Capital Management has investments and has had large investments in ALNOV, continuing to rely on its potential - THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE AT ALL-
Novacyt Group is an Anglo-French biotechnology group focused on clinical diagnostics, with offices in Camberley, Surrey, United Kingdom and Vélizy-Villacoublay, France. The company produces in vitro and molecular diagnostic tests, supplying an extensive range assays and reagents worldwide.
HE'S GOT BIG CONTRACTS FOR COVID TESTING.
A cordial greeting good investment.
In Spain at 9/04/2021 carefully L.E.D
$JNJ will bounce - Dip opportunityI love JNJ long and believe that they are going to be fine with the recent COVID-related dip.
Their vaccine could do more damage than AstraZeneca's and governments will still buy it in order to herd the sheep.
You need to understand that JNJ is so much more than a vaccine company.
Expect this stock to go back up to the $167 level, as well as breaking the $170 level as well.
A great swing trade (buy covid dips), and I also love this long-term.
Lots of money to be made here!
*Not a financial advisor.
**Don't judge me on my winners. Judge me on my losers, because there are so few.
The only time I will chart such MisfortuneThoughts and feelings to everyone impacted by COVID-19. A highly sensitive topic, thus keeping this if anything, for personal use and wanting to see what is being told in the media, be represented in a simple chart with some context and trend analysis. Ethically, i felt some may wish to track for reasons respectable to them, thus publishing a 'chart' but really conveying, it can not be ignored that the trend alone, is worrying and i fail to see words verbalised around the world in terms of reduction, replicate into quantitative data.
God bless
WMT 1Q Earning Target 2021WMT flopped its fourth quarter earnings in 2020 announcing -.74 cents a share. I expect a report with a lot more strength with integration of E-commerce into it online store models as well as less fear surrounding COVID-19 creating boost in sales. With only 1% of shares floating short, The slow grind up, which has been evident since the middle of March, is likely to continue without any strong resistance. Being the largest retailer in 2019 boasting 523 B in sales (NRF.com) doubling AMZN sales, this stock is a solid frontrunner as we move into a post pandemic economy. The NFP report on April 2nd of 916k (almost double the previous month report) compared to the 652k estimate is also encouraging as this could lead to more consumer spending. Still to come this month are MOM retail sale reports on the 15th and 16th which will could potentially back this thesis. Furthermore, with the market creating new highs quickly, there could be a tinge of uncertainty or heightened volatility as the rally hasn't really had much catalyst other than jobs, but with WMT's Beta of .47 (Zachs) this stock is relatively safe. With a debt to equity ratio at a 2 year low as well, this stock is definitely a strong buy in my opinion and I have set my post earnings target for 160 with this stock. This would be an all time high and about a 2% increase from current highs which is definitely within reason all things considered.
BRENT OIL. Where next?The price of Brent crude oil fell from $ 70 in early March to $ 64 per barrel, a drop of 8.5%.
📉Factors that contributed to lower oil prices were delays in vaccination in most countries.
📉Delayed vaccine supplies and local lockdowns continue to stand in the way of a full resumption of economic activity.
📉📄Also the OPEC agreement on April 1, where the participants agreed to increase oil production: OPEC+ will increase production by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May and June and will continue with an increase of 450,000 barrels per day in July.
📌According to analysts, the price of oil will fall to $ 61 per barrel at the end of the second quarter, and to $ 53.4 per barrel by the end.
📌Observers note that the price of oil is reversed to the VIX index, which is now the lowest since early 2020.
📌Analyzing the chart of the VIX index, we can assume that it will reach its minimum in May 2021, and then resume growth.
📌In the short term, oil prices can be expected to respond to the global economic recovery and the fight against the pandemic.
But in the long run, oil will be traded in the range of 50-55 thousand dollars per barrel.
Bntx update. Longer view. We can expect a big move in next few wOnly good news coming out of BNTX. Today came 100% effectiveness in 12-15 year olds. When Marburg facility comes online they will be making bank on 50% share with Pfizer. Targeting 128 Pfizer entry, then a push 150+ before a pullback
Positions: 400 shares, 120/130c May, 150/160c June Lottos.