Incoming global lockdowns and market crash 2021Hello traders , this is just my point of view and it should be used as an educational purpose. Major economies are going to potentially suffer with some serious hyperinflation . That can happen if the delta variant continue to increase and lockdowns increase. Rising cases are increasing.
US FIXED INCOME SAFETY or YIELDS are falling because there is so much demand for safe haven. Similar situation that 2020 . This could be even worst. Be ready to make money no matter the outcome. Let me know what you expect from the second part of 2021
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
AUDUSD bears jostle with 10-month-old horizontal supportDelta covid variant keeps pushing more parts of Australia under local lockdowns, dragging AUDUSD to refresh yearly low and ignore RBA Minutes and PBOC inaction on early Tuesday. It should, however, be noted that the bears are at the test as the oversold RSI conditions and a horizontal line comprising highs marked during late 2020 challenges further declines above 0.7300. It should, however, be noted that a daily closing below 0.7340 will keep the sellers directed towards mid-October 2020 tops near 0.7240.
Meanwhile, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.7380 and September highs around 0.7410 could challenge bulls during the corrective pullback, likely if the pair closes beyond 0.7340. Though, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200-DMA, respectively around 0.7500 and 0.7585, will be tough nuts to crack for the pair buyers. Overall, AUDUSD remains bears but intermediate bounces can’t be ruled out.
What's up with Dash?Global markets fell today, amid fears of the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. Yet among all the doom and gloom, Dash saw gains of 15.5% - what gives?
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First, let's take a look at the DASH Coin Metrics. The most recent price of DASH at the time of writing is: $136.73.
The 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at: $202.78, and the percentage distance from the latest DASH price and the 200 SMA is: -33.0%. A coin which has a price less than its 200 SMA is less costly on average than at any other time, and so this might be a good time to buy. Beware though that this may also be a part of a bearish trend, where the price might drop even further. DASH is also below the 365 SMA, and in fact seems to have recently bounced off the 720 SMA, which is the 2-yearly average price of the coin.
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A recent study by CryptoRefills, a company that sells vouchers and gift cards in exchange for cryptocurrency, suggests that while many users view Bitcoin as a useful way to pay for goods and services, many users hold other assets in their portfolios as well, such as DASH and Litecoin (LTC), which have lower transaction fees.
Could this be the reason for a sudden interest in DASH? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Happy trading, folks! Please like and follow if you'd like to see more of my content.
Between Two Fibs - AEMDAEMD seems to like this range between the 786 and 618 fib lines. The 618 has long-been a point of resistance on the chart. Meanwhile, the last few days have seen it test the 786 level but hold both above it AND its 50DMA. No news today but focus on biotechs thanks to CYTK earlier could be a sympathy trigger at play. Also with the Delta varient becoming "a thing," covid stocks in numerous stages of development are becoming more of a focus right now. We'll have to see if 786 fib+ 50DMA post a strong support level and if 618 will remain resistance if or when AEMD takes another swing at it.
GBPUSD confirms bearish flag on UK “Freedom Day”Looming concerns over the Delta covid variant probes the UK’s total unlock on July 19 as the infections jump to the highest since January. The same drag the GBPUSD prices to break the monthly rising channel, confirming the bearish flag chart pattern in turn. Given the MACD conditions also supporting the sellers and the RSI line having a bit gap from the oversold area, the quote is likely to extend the south-run towards the 1.3700 threshold and then to April’s low near 1.3670. However, any further downside will not hesitate to refresh the yearly low, currently around 1.3450.
Meanwhile, corrective pullback beyond the channel’s support line, now resistance around 1.3780 will aim for the 1.3800 round figure. Though, a downward sloping trend line from June 23, near 1.3875, will be a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls afterward. Even if the cable buyers manage to cross the 1.3875 hurdle, the stated channel’s resistance line and 200-SMA, respectively around 1.3925 and 1.3945 will challenge the pair’s further upside.
Biotech - CSLModel has given entry signals for CSL Limited:
- CSL Limited is a global specialty biotechnology company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets products to treat and prevent serious human medical conditions.
- We are very excited about opportunities in the biotech sector, as we believe the fight against COVID is going to move to the next phase in the nearest future.
- Technically in a Wyckoff accumulation structure with a spring, possibly testing the channel top.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
OCGN back to basicsOCGN kind of treading water for now. I think what we need to see are some rock-solid results from COVAXIN, which this rolling submission could be helpful in identifying. The Phase 3 results were interesting. With more warnings coming out about the current SOC EAU vaccines, another option might not be "too late" at this point. But a lot will clearly come down to the results. For now, speculation is probably playing a bigger role as we don't know much more beyond what Ocugen announced this week. Regardless, looking at chart levels, a quick Fib retracement shows a few "pain points" on the chart, namely the 618 fib that has been a frequent resistance level over the last few months.
"On July 2nd, Ocugen reported new evidence from Bharat Biotech. The company shared positive results of its Phase 3 study of COVAXIN™; a whole virion inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate. According to the company, it demonstrated a vaccine efficacy in mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 disease of 77.8% with efficacy against severe COVID-19 disease alone of 93.4%.
“With the Delta variant becoming a dominant strain of COVID-19 in the United States, we believe that the Phase 3 efficacy results reported by Bharat Biotech demonstrate that COVAXIN™ has the potential to become an important option to expand protection against this emerging variant. Combining these data with the only Delta-variant results from a controlled Phase 3 clinical trial, evidence continues to support a favorable benefit-risk profile for COVAXIN™.” - Dr. Bruce Forrest, Acting Chief Medical Officer and a member of the vaccine scientific advisory board of Ocugen. "
Quote Source: 7 Penny Stocks For Your Watch List This Week If You Like Biotech In July
Sydney Lockdown !Technically the chart right now is at the neckline. If the price rejects this neckline, AUD may fall to the minor trendline, maybe deeper to 0.702.
Sydney, Australia, on Saturday night, began a two-week lockdown amid a surge in cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Catalyst:
- Sydney lockdown
- US CB Consumer
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- NFP
- US Unemployment Rate
When will #BTC Rise?Hello Traders!
As risk tone leaning into risk off which favours the safe heaven currencies like jpy,chf,usd a potential break to the downside is likely to occur for Bitcoin.
I labelled a huge head and shoulders in my previous analysis that is activated is we break and close below the pink line.
When we had the last covid market crash BTC was at 3500.
New lockdowns, covid cases, in the recent news.
Have a great day!
Be safe.
Vitez
SINGAPORE UK INDONESIA COVID-19 UpdateSingapore COVID-19 is on a downtrend, albeit a potential small spike due to some infected hostesses may have affected a number of people. Not the most flattering of ways to get a spike. But it is tapering off for now...
UK on the other hand, eases its measures today, but leaves me wondering IF anyone is even watching the charts, or doing any statistical studies. The wave onset projected is on time, and it is on now... starts now, for the next couple of months! Hello ??
Indonesia has gotten from bad to worse to even worse. Projections are underestimating the acceleration as daily cases from 20,000 a week ago now hits 40,000 yesterday. This would take more than a couple of months to slow down, if at all. IT's too little too late for vaccinations now, but that's the best weapon there is in the shed.
Malaysia is modulating the current wave, and current projections point to a slow down in infection spread.
The VIX Has Nearly Retraced The Entire COVID SpikeI find this chart to be quite remarkable and interesting. I love using chats to reflect back on history and time to see what happened, where we were and now how far we come. This chart is a perfect example of that.
What I have here is a chart of the VIX or the Volatility Index. I have it set to a weekly chart and what I am doing is just mapping out a few key levels and prior prices of the index. Each candle shows a week of VIX movements.
The first thing I want to point out is where the index was BEFORE Covid-19. For almost all of 2019, it sort of danced anywhere from 12 to 20. You could volatility was low. The bull market continued onward.
Then, Covid happened. You can see the spike very easily on the chart. And wow did the VIX pop. I personally have never seen anything like it, even slightly crazier than the Financial Crisis. It happened so fast.
One key difference I will never forget is that during the spike in the VIX it kept going up, and up, and up with very little pause. But the same was true on the way down, too. The Financial Crisis, however, was different in that it was prolonged, with second and third spikes happening over the course of a year, maybe more.
Today, as I write this, the VIX has almost entirely retraced its COVID-19 move. That is quite remarkable. Just to sit back and think about all the trades, headlines, and events that happened in this short amount of time. The VIX is now down 81% since its highs.
Now in this post I should also be very clear: I have no idea if this cycle is over or not. No one really knows. Perhaps there will be another spike. I don't really believe in doing TA on a chart of the VIX, but I do think it's worth noting that the Covid-19 gap has officially been filled. I've circled that gap on the chart.
One final note is the ability of human creativity and ingenuity. A vaccine was developed in record time, information and news spread around the globe, and while the Spanish Flu of 1920s last much longer, that's only because they did not have the technology we have today.
Anyways, that's the post. I did not cover all of my lessons, but I will add them soon.
GBPUSD bounce challenges short-term resistance lineAlthough US traders cheer extended weekend on Monday, UK PM Boris Johnson’s unlock plan details may help GBPUSD to entertain the markets. That said, the quote bounced off mid-April lows the previous day to regain the status above a five-month-old support line. However, the recovery moves recently fade around a downward sloping trend line from June 16. Hence, bulls and bears jostle between the 1.3800 support and 1.3820 resistance ahead of the key announcement. Should Boris remains optimistic over covid conditions in the UK, the pair may easily overcome the nearby hurdle to aim for the early April’s top surrounding 1.3915. However, any further upside will be tested by the 1.4000–4010 area comprising multiple tops marked since March.
On the contrary, a downside break of the 1.3800 level will not hesitate to drag the GBPUSD prices to 1.3670-75 area including lows marked in March and April. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s weakness past 1.3670 could make it vulnerable to retest the yearly low surrounding 1.3450. During the fall, February’s low near 1.3560 may act as an intermediate halt. To sum up, GBPUSD bears seem to have tired of late but bulls need conviction for fresh entry.
UK COVID-19 Next Wave Projection Update IIFrom the previous post on 14 May, I was doing a friend a favour into looking at the UK projection as she is living in London.
I said "... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July .
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July ."
It is the beginning of July, and it appears that the AMCD histograms trended up as expected, and is about to break out into a major spike given the weekly chart is about to crossover into the bullish territory.
The daily chart is clearly showing the spike in force... go see it.
So there you have it, yet again, this MACD model is projecting very well the onset of spikes. IF the powers that be, could appreciate this heuristical statistics, we might be able to intervene appropriately.
In any case... the weekly MACD is about to cross up, which is seriously bad news!
COVID19 Confirmed Cases Chart FutureChart based on ticker CONFIRMED
DayDiff is difference per day on accumulated CONFIRMED.
RSIA is RSI(DayDiff,14)
MACD is based on Linereg(DayDiff, 30)
What's your thoughts? Bullflag? Could be a HS due to one datapoint that seems odd.
INDONESIA COVID-19 - the next wave part IVPreviously projected to explode in mid-June, with clear media coverage about the next wave.
Today, the last day of June, in the media - I ndonesia's COVID-19 situation nears 'catastrophe', says Red Cross
The model here is good at projecting with at least a 4 weeks lead time for potential waves. This was previously demonstrated for a couple of countries and all have not yet disappointed. Often, the onset is actually faster than projected... mostly attributed to the increasing virulence of the virus.
Difficult to disagree with Red Cross... it IS heading that way.
Prayers and well wishes to those in Indonesia, especially my friends living there. Stay safe and well. Take good care.
Black Swan - Delta VariantIdea for COVID-19:
- Delta variant now 20% of US cases says CDC, up from 3% 4 weeks ago.
- Technicals suggest new wave to begin.
Forecast: 54 Million+ by EOY.
www.bloomberg.com
New variant selection timeframe matched as forecasted previously:
GLHF
- DPT
KNR -- Oversold; Double Bottom at .89. On watch for a bounce.KNR has been beaten down but looks way overdone, given they have just raised $8.5 at 1.50 with institutional investors. The company reported respectable $3.3M revenues in Q1 2021. Their BioCloud COVID-19 detection device will be used by the Canadian Olympic delegation at the Tokyo Olympics. The US sales channel is being worked on. Insiders are buying in the open market. Share buyback program is in effect. Bullish MACD divergence on the chart.
OCGN "variant stew"Alot going on in this chart but bear(or bull) with me.. 100MA being tested, broke above trend line and alot of confluence occuring all at once while the "Variant" is the big talk of the days.
Quite a bit of upside here if good PR comes out on OCGN. Otherwise we could see this get swatted right back down under the trend line and below the 100MA. My calls are in for a solid risk reward play here.
Trade safe and have fun! SMASH that like button and let me know your thoughts in the comments!
INDONESIA COVID-19 - the next wave part IIIJust barely a week after the last update, the rate of spread (and detection) has hit 20,000 per day !
And according to the Weekly chart (not shown here), the MACD Histograms cross over this week! This means that there is a lot more momentum for this wave to grow. Much more so given the lack of effective measures implemented and enforced. A overwhelming shutdown of the health system is pretty much round the corner, without infection rates slowing, but accelerating on the contrary.
Eventually, it will affect the region, as the viral reservoir gets dug in deep, and may even see the spawn of more variants.
It is expected that the rate will only increase, until very strong measures are taken to impede the spread. Until then, it would still take weeks after implementation to subside significantly.
Hong Kong has already banned flights, and more will probably follow, leading to some level of external isolation.
Not good at all...
Take care, take very good care if you are in the affected areas.
God speed, and God bless.