BITCOIN POTENTIAL SHORT: BEAR FUNDAMENTALSThis is a sad moment for Bitcoin. And probably for whole crypto-market.
We've seen bullish exhuberance on altcoin markets , where major alts (DASH, ETH, XMR) gained an 100% in average last 7 days. And they gained much more at their peaks.
These are the actual numbers against BTC since bitcoin ETF rejection:
XMR +155%
ETH +295%
DASH +265%
And other minor alts also grew A LOT against btc.
We've seen this before. Prior the great bear market in BTC at the end of 2013 begining of 2014.
This could be bitcoin whales manipulating the small altcoins markets to squeeze as much bitcoin as possible prior the bitcoin bear market. Or in the best case scenario (unlikely in my opinion) a migration from BTC to other solutions .
And we have some important bear fundamentals :
Bitcoin ETF was rejected . Basically the SEC told us that bitcoin markets are not regulated, and so, easily manipulated and not elegible for american regular investor. Source .
A potential non-friendly hardfork is more real than ever . The relations between Bitcoin Core and its community and Bitcoin Unlimited and its community are more tense than ever ( source ).
Recently BU nodes were attacked ( see sharp nodes drop ), and the whole BU team made fun off ( source ).
Even after those problems, currently BU scalability solution (hard fork to bigger blocks) is signaled by +32% of the hashrate, while Bitcoin Core scalability solution (SegWit) is signaled by +27% of the hashrate ( Source ). Bitcoin Core community won't ever accept Unlimited solution, and viceversa. And what is worse, important people in the bitcoin world are already considering/planing how to list/treat two potential bitcoins. ( source )
PBOC preparing highly STRICT regulations . There is a draft, not approved yet, suggesting mandatory in person verification prior first deposit/cashout. (Sources: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 )
Bitfinex hacked coins apparently on the move . ( Source )
I have my opinions about this Bitcoin Core/Bitcoin Unlimited war, but i think they are irrelevant. What is relevant is that something MUST be done . And splitting bitcoin in two different chains IS NOT AN OPTION .
The bigger bitcoin is, the most difficult finding a solution will be. This has been delayed too much. And it has a huge negative effect: people could start thinking that a decentralized governance IS NOT POSSIBLE. As bitcoin is proving unable to reach consensus for years, and what is worse, this consensus seems more difficult each day.
And this seems to be simplified to a big disconformity about what is bitcoin.
¿Is bitcoin a currency/payment method or is bitcoin a store of value? If even early adopters and leaders of the community can't agree on this, then bitcoin's future is doomed.
All this makes me feel quite unconfident of bitcoin ability to hold it's current market cap.
I personally sold 40% of my cold storage (~$300 avg buy price) into fiat at 1200.
And now i am opening a short.
I am laddering my short entry, 1130-1150-1170-1215-1250.
I will stop this short once i see the scaling debate/potential hardfork finding a friendly solution.
