Consolidation
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsAt 64.9, the Michigan consumer sentiment index for February hits its highest level in eight months as falling energy prices eased fears about inflation. This is a positive signal as it is a widely-known gauge of personal consumer confidence in the US economic activity. From a technical standpoint, the significant breakout of the supply zone at the 131.000 area last week was an emphatic bullish signal buttressing the idea that sellers might have lost the momentum; but following the retest of structure, price action was caught within a consolidation phase above the key level (131.000) to emphasize the level of indecision in this market. In this video, we looked at the possibilities and trading options we have from the current market structure as we look out for breakouts either way in the coming week for trading opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
OCEANUSDT wants the Next Weekly structure?OCEANUSDT recently went through an accumulation phase, which took place between the price levels of 0.2982 and 0.1163. After a period of consolidation, the price eventually broke out of this accumulation range and experienced a significant distribution phase.
Currently, the price of OCEANUSDT is testing the weekly support level at around $0.41. This level is a key area of support and resistance and has the potential to signal a shift in market sentiment. It is important to keep a close eye on how the price reacts to this level, as a break below it could indicate further downside movement.
Looking ahead, the market will need to create a new breakout above the $0.5 area for any long continuation to occur. If this happens, we can apply Plancton's Rules, a set of guidelines for identifying potential market movements, to help guide our decision-making and potentially open a new long position.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure.
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Rangebound. But not for much longer!$BONK aka Bonk Inu has been moving within a tight range for a while - it was on the sidelines and dragged while Solana made it's price moves. Now that the market is feeling comfortable with it's recent bullish turn -- whether that is a long term bull trend reversal or simply a bear market rally is to be seen -- money will start to flow to coins that have few bagholders. Bonk was an airdrop and those who wanted to sell it have sold most likely, those that haven't are likely waiting for prices that we haven't seen yet. It's clear on the chart that somebody is buying up those airdrop for no less than ~$0.0000007777. The boring period does come to an end at some point, and when it does I'm betting the price will be marked up. Price has been in an accumulation / consolidation zone since January 11th when a large holder pulled their liquidity from Orca.
Two resistance levels are shown on the chart - once Bonk blows past those, it's price discovery time. Do I hear "Bonk to $1!" in the distance?
Will Bitcoin Continue Upwards?
A continuation of upwards momentum for Bitcoin is more likely than any capitulation to the downside. BTC is drawing support on the one hour timeframe from the 21500 resistance line, which developed in the aftermath of the FTX debacle and was confirmed upon this month's upwards price action. We saw the same resistance line rejecting Bitcoin's price on January 18th until Bitcoin finally broke past the line on the 20th.
Moreover, February's slight depression in price has not been reflected in either cumulative volatility (which I measure as the reversion between the median and the mean) or the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. This tells that the price is consolidating significantly, despite the macroeconomic conditions or the recent resistance in other risk markets, such as equities. I hesitantly point to a combination of technical reversion to the mean and policy (such as Kraken's staking program in conflict with the U.S. government) for the fall.
If the 21500 resistance does not hold, we can expect the next resistance at 20400, at the geometric median. After December began and Bitcoin began to consolidate from its plummet, we saw this median (denoted in yellow on-chart) reject the price twice (on Dec 14th and between the 20th-26th, respectfully), before Bitcoin finally broke through on Jan 10th, starting its current uptrend.
Finally, I noticed a few ideas mentioning the RSI and Bitcoin as well as macroeconomic factors for reasons why this current rally could be a bull trap. I included the RSI on this chart because I am aware that, since Jan 23rd, the RSI has turned significantly bearish, producing lower highs and lower lows. I interpret this as the RSI is adjusting to the more muted volatility of the price action following the elevated volatility of the 35% rise over a month, which is just a factor of these indicators not calculating from dynamic lookback periods. As for macroeconomic conditions, we must remember that risk assets trade on forward-looking expectations. As the full effects of federal policy will take months to take effect, and as Bitcoin continues to decouple from a high correlation with the stock market, I expect further consolidation, instead of a lower low, especially given the strength of the rally produced this past month.
Support below 20400: 18500, 17500, 16500. Resistance above current price: 22500, 23500, 24600. Strangely uniform levels.
Regards, wbburgin
Bitcoin - next week game planMy game plan going into next week on Bitcoin ($BTC).
Notes on chart - leaning toward at least a sweep of current range low / liquidity to take out a bunch of stops at 22.4k.
Lose current range, prior consolidation area is up next at 20k. From there will continue to evaluate if we come back down to macro lows, but expecting a bounce from either of these 2 specific locations if we are going to push higher at all.
UNLESS 23.5k is reclaimed soon, invalid in that case.
Happy Sunday folks.
Swings: Accumulation vs. Distribution Notice the swing areas, and the volume indicator. Had the indicator been used for "trend strength" it would of sold off. Rather, use the Accumulation/Distribution to identify bullish or bearish swings...if the volume increases or decreases lower in the consolidation zones.
XAUUSD | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold was unable to crack the psychological level at $1,950 to bring fresh hopes of a new wave of bullish momentum and this can not be unconnected to the reassuring U.S. economy as the fear of recession recedes at least in the meantime. Data reported on Friday reveals that the PCE Index grew 5% in the year to December, versus an annual expansion of 6.8% in June further bringing a positive light to the Greenback. From a technical perspective, we have identified a potential trend continuation pattern as the $1,920 zone continues to reject selling momentum throughout last week's trading session. We still keep the option of a sell-off open considering the continued sell pressure below the $1,940 zone which might lead to an outright breakdown/retest of both the trendline (identified on the 4H timeframe) and the $1,920 zone.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
MKRUSD - Consolidation or Downward Move?After around 6 months of hugely profitable trading with MKR we've received a Short signal from Crypto Tipster v2 - looking at the chart there's 2 possibilities from here.
Either we're actually looking at a period of consolidation whereby the price isn'y going to do all that much within the current range until it reaches the end of this wedge in a couple of weeks; or we're going to experience a drop into the trading area below this wedge.
Given how profitable Crypto Tipster v2 has been with MKR recently we're inclined to go for it, 10% on the Short should be acheivable, 20% is also not unlikely!
If you enjoyed or agree with this idea - drop us a comment, like & follow! :)
CRWD ~ Inverse H&S built, ready to pop higherHere's a 30m chart to highlight detail of the inverse head and shoulders built on CRWD.
Green line weekly support goes back to the lows of August 2020. Purple box is a large daily gap left from late last year up to $138 area. If looking from peak to trough of the head and shoulders, it's roughly $16 from neckline to low of the head, in a breakout of neckline it could be considered within an expected move to move a similar distance to the upside. That's around the 124.00 area.
If looking at the daily chart, LBR momentum indicator is showing a slowing of downside momentum, further adding that a short term bottom may be put in here. Daily RSI is right around 50 as well so there is room to go higher without hitting "overbought" levels.
Earnings are a bit away still. No position currently, but will be looking to open one soon depending on price action.
UPL- Take Reverse From Support ZoneUPL was moving with the trendline and now it was consolidated nearby the trendline and now it's given a breakout in an upward direction as you can see now. This breakout can give very good risk-reward on a positional basis, traders can also find opportunities on daily basis based on their setup.
Entry Level:- Above @740 (Wait for Retest around 740)
Stop Loss:- Below @708
Target:- Book target based on your entry (For intraday Might be different)
BTC 3DAY BOTTOM THEORYHere I outline my Bitcoin bottom theory, using the 3day chart and the 300ma and 300ema.
When 300ema crosses bearish over 300ma we see consolidation below (bottom), and once the 300ema crosses bullish over the 300ma, we see clear start to next BULL cycle.
What's to come next this cycle? Drop comments below! Thanks for watching and thanks for your time! Please like and follow for more ideas.
Beyond Meat - The Vegan Short SqueezeIf looking at last year's POC of BYND, you can notice we have been oscillating above and below that $15 range since September 2022. BYND has been in this slightly sloping downward/sideways channel with the most recent low being the bottom of the value range, building a nice base for a move higher.
In recent days I've noticed some unusual options activity in a handful of highly shorted names and this is one of them.
Paired with bullish bets on these names with some sizeable money, overall indices this week finished on a strong close going into next week.
Above this $17.00 level on BYND is a volume gap where significantly less volume has traded as only 4 days moved it through this zone last year. These voids can sometimes fill rather quickly when price starts moving back through them. In conjunction with this, LBR MACD has a first cross which can be a long buying opportunity, with an RSI that has recently cooled off from overbought.
Today I opened a long BYND position. This is in anticipation that we test the upper part of the channel again as well as that $17 area, possibly getting into the gap. Mix in the fact that this stock has a float nearly 40% short, with earnings a month away; there could be a short squeeze over the next few weeks in this one.
✅ 4 Methods to Confirm EntriesYou should make sure that your reward is bigger than your risk.
It is up to you what your optimal risk to reward should be – ideally you should have a risk to reward of 1:2 or 1:3.
✔️Trendline Reversal & Break
The trader should constantly monitor both the support and resistance trendlines and redraw them as the old ones break and new ones form.
When an intersection of the projections happens, one of the trendlines must be broken and the other will most likely continue to hold the price.
We trade in the direction of the trendline that remained unbroken with potential entries at the trendline breaks.
✔️Support & Resistance
Look at the price chart and observe the support and resistance levels that you have drawn on the charts.
You will look to place sell orders at the resistance levels and buy orders at the support levels.
Stop loss below the support level or above the resistance level depending the call you’re on.
✔️Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement levels connect any two points that the trader views as relevant, typically a high point and a low point.
The percentage levels provided are areas where the price could stall or reverse. These levels should not be relied on exclusively,
so it is dangerous to assume that the price will reverse after hitting a specific Fibonacci level.
✔️Consolidations
A price consolidation is a period when the price is moving sideways without any significant advancement in the upward or downward direction. A price consolidation can take any form.
It could be a rectangular pattern (often called a range), any of the different types of triangle patterns, a rising or falling wedge, a pennant, or a flag.
Depending the pattern that takes place, you’re gonna look for entries and stop loss bellow pattern’s invalidation.
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