Investing into Uranium-Backed Producers. Technical perspectivesUranium ore trades is at records highs, as several hedge fund managers are expanding their allocations to uranium stocks, with a conviction that an increasing embrace of nuclear energy as part of a "green" future - along with geopolitically-rooted ambitions to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas -- means the trend has a lot of room to run.
On Wednesday, November 1, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in uranium-rich Kazakhstan on the first leg of a trip to Central Asia.
According to a study by the World Nuclear Association (WNA,) published in August this year, Kazakhstan possesses 12 percent of the world's uranium resources and in 2021 produced about 21,800 tons. In 2009 it became the world's leading uranium producer, with almost 28 percent of world production. In 2019, the country produced a staggering 43 percent of the world's uranium.
A dozen years after the disaster at Japan's Fukashima reactor put nuclear energy on worldwide probation -- and in, Germany, gave it a death sentence -- various factors are combining to bring it back into the acceptable realm of energy solutions.
UXC URANIUM U3O8 Futures Price, over the past 5 years.
First reason, the International Energy Agency says that, in order to meet "net zero" goals -- which describes a state where carbon emitted into the atmosphere matches the amount removed from it - global nuclear generation capacity must double from 2020 levels by 2050.
In addition to nuclear energy coming to the fore as a zero-carbon-emitting power source, it's also seen as a way for the western economies to reduce their need for Russian oil and gas. The fact that Russia currently accounts for about 8% of the world's uranium reserves underscores the need to develop new supply sources. There's also an increasing appetite for nuclear power in Asia and Africa.
Taken together, the uranium-friendly trends could power significant gains in the sector. Uranium equities could see dramatic upside -- 50%, 100%, possibly MultiX more.
The main graph represents technical perspectives for AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF that provides investors access to a broad range of companies involved in uranium mining and the production of nuclear components, including those in extraction, refining, exploration, or manufacturing of equipment for the uranium and nuclear industries.
The Global X Uranium ETF is 35.66% year-to-date return in this time, that is much stronger against top 4 American well-known indices i.e. S&P500 Index SP:SPX (11.95% YTD), Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX (35.22% YTD), Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT (-3.38% YTD) , and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJ:DJI (1.94% YTD).
Top 5 Holdings of AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF (as of November 1, 2023)
# Weight Name
1. 23.80% TSX:CCO - CAMECO CORP
2. 11.25% TSX:U.U - SPROTT PHYSICAL
3. 6.77% LSIN:KAP - NAC KAZATOMPROM-DR
4. 6.45% NYSE:NXE - NEXGEN ENERGY LTD
5. 5.41% AMEX:UEC - URANIUM ENERGY CORP
👉 The main graph says, there're alternative technical perspectives for AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF in this time, where the major break out of multi year highs can open the door to further huge, MultiX upside price action under well-knoww Technical figure "Cup-and-Handle".
👉 Vice versa, if resistance is still strong, it can bring the graph to its main 5yrs SMA support.
Commoditytrading
SILVER Trendline Resistance BreakHi Traders!
SILVER has broken its trendline resistance on the 1D chart.
Here are the details:
The market has found support around the 21.874 level, which is a previous swing low. Today's candle has opened above the trendline resistance and is currently on the 20 EMA.
We are looking for a close above the trendline resistance and a momentum push above the 20 EMA. The plan here is to buy market dips near the trendline resistance.
Preferred Direction: Buy
Resistance (FLAG CHANNEL): 23.25
Support (FLAG CHANNEL): 21.874
Technical Indicators: 20 EMA
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
The Upper Edge: Gold Futures’ Dance with Bollinger BandsIntroduction
In the dynamic and intricate world of commodities, Gold Futures shine as a versatile and compelling instrument for traders. As 2024 unfolds, these futures don't just reflect market trends; they narrate the story of global economic shifts. This analysis will explore the nuanced interplay between Gold Futures and Bollinger Bands®, offering traders a guide through the ebbs and flows of the commodities market.
Expanded Market Context
The year 2024 stands as a testament to the resilience and unpredictability of global economies. The U.S. treads cautiously towards a potential soft landing, balancing economic activity to avoid a hard hit from previous tumultuous years. In Europe, the shadow of a recession looms, particularly in powerhouse economies like Germany. These contrasting economic stories create a tapestry of factors influencing Gold Futures. In uncertain times, gold becomes a sanctuary for investors, a phenomenon that is echoed in its price movements and volatility. This section will delve into the intricate ways in which geopolitical tensions, monetary policies across central banks, and global inflationary trends shape the gold market.
Bollinger Bands® Analysis
Bollinger Bands® can be seen as more than just indicators of market volatility; they are windows into the market's soul. This segment will explore how these bands, comprising a Middle Band surrounded by adaptive Upper and Lower Bands, provide pivotal insights into Gold Futures trading.
Gold Futures’ Reaction to Upper Bollinger Bands®
When the Upper Bollinger Bands® across different time frames align, Gold Futures has shown it tends to exhibit unique price behaviors. This phenomenon is not just a technical pattern but a reflection of trader psychology and market sentiment. We will examine several instances where Gold Futures approached these upper echelons, triggering significant market responses, and what these responses tell us about market dynamics.
Lower Bands and Emergent Buying Patterns
A pattern of resilience is observed when Gold Futures breach the lower daily Bollinger Bands®. Repetitive instances of this breach, followed by a swift bullish recovery, will be analyzed, highlighting the underlying strength in the gold market. This pattern points to a robust buying sentiment that prevails even when the market dips, suggesting deep-seated bullish undercurrents.
Comprehensive Chart Analysis
Gold Futures Sensitivity to Upper Bands: When analyzing Gold Futures in the context of Bollinger Bands®, a striking pattern emerges at the Upper Bands. This sensitivity is not just a reflection of price action but also an indicator of trader sentiment and market dynamics. Repetitive observations suggest that when daily, weekly and monthly upper bands get close to each other and Gold Futures prices surpass such barrier, more often than not, a sharp correction to the downside takes place.
Bullish Recovery on Lower Bands Breach: Conversely, when Gold Futures dip below the lower daily Bollinger Bands, a consistent pattern of bullish recovery is observed. The below chart shows periods where breaches of the lower daily bands led to upward price movements.
Current position of Gold Futures: On December 4 2023 Gold created a new high in a violent manner leaving behind a long wick which has potentially cleared a significant amount of sellers that were available at such price point. Furthermore, the distance between the current price and the upper monthly Bollinger Bands® is significant allowing for additional sharp moves to the upside.
Elaborate Trading Plan for Gold Futures
Building on the Bollinger Bands® analysis, a hypothetic bullish trading strategy is presented:
Entry Point: 1996.9, a level steeped in historical significance and technical strength.
Stop Loss: 1941.5, carefully calculated to provide a safety net while allowing room for market fluctuations.
Target Price: 2152.8, chosen for its alignment with the upper monthly Bollinger Bands®.
Point Values Analysis:
Gold Futures (GC): $10 per tick value.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC): $1 per tick, which can be leveraged for more nuanced trading strategies.
Advanced Risk Management Techniques
In the fast-paced and often unpredictable realm of trading, sophisticated risk management techniques become indispensable.
Portfolio Diversification
Diversification stands as a cornerstone in risk management. By spreading investments across various asset classes (GC, ES, CL, BTC, etc.), traders can buffer themselves against the unpredictability of prices. For instance, balancing a portfolio with Gold Futures can potentially mitigate the risk of equities, bonds, and other commodities that may be part of such portfolio. This approach helps in smoothing out the volatility and reduces the potential impact of adverse price movements in any single asset class.
Staying Informed on Global Economic News
Global economic events have a profound influence on Gold Futures. Political instability, monetary policy changes, and macroeconomic shifts can all trigger significant movements. Traders need to stay abreast of such developments, as they may offer crucial clues about potential market directions. For example, a hawkish stance by major central banks could strengthen the dollar, typically pushing gold prices lower. Conversely, political tensions or economic uncertainty often boost gold's appeal as a safe haven, driving prices up.
Leveraging Bollinger Bands® for Market Insights
By understanding the bandwidth (the distance between the upper and lower bands), traders can gauge market volatility. Narrow bands suggest low volatility and can precede significant market moves. Traders can use this information to adjust their trading strategies, potentially tightening stop-losses during low volatility phases to protect against sudden market shifts.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Effective risk management in Gold Futures also involves the application of strategies like hedging. Hedging, using derivative instruments such as options on Gold Futures, can provide a safety net against adverse price movements. For instance, purchasing put options on Gold Futures can offset potential losses in the futures contracts if prices fall. This strategy allows traders to maintain their position in the market while effectively managing the downside risk.
Conclusion
As 2024 unfolds, Gold Futures present a landscape ripe with opportunities for the astute trader. The intricate relationship between these futures and Bollinger Bands® offers a nuanced view of market behavior and potential trends. This analysis has presented that Bollinger Bands® are not just tools for predicting price movements; they are powerful instruments for understanding market psychology and managing risk.
The insights gleaned from Bollinger Bands®, combined with advanced risk management techniques and a keen awareness of global economic dynamics, equip traders with a robust framework for navigating the Gold Futures market. As traders harness these tools and strategies, they position themselves not just to respond to market conditions but to anticipate and strategically potentially capitalize on them, turning volatility and uncertainty into pathways for strategic trading and potential gains.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Understanding the Ripple Effects of U.S. Inventory Data on WTIThe American Petroleum Institute's latest report indicates a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories – a larger-than-expected decrease of 5.2 million barrels. But what does this mean for the market?
This drop in inventories typically signals a tightening supply, which, in theory, should push oil prices up. However, the data also showed an increase in gasoline and distillates inventories, suggesting a contrasting scenario of weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer. This weakened demand is further evidenced by the ongoing impact of a severe winter storm, restricting travel and, consequently, fuel usage.
Technical analysis adds another layer to this narrative. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following momentum indicator, shows sell signs, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral. For market watchers, these indicators suggest potential shifts, with bears possibly entering at a point around $71.88 a barrel, pushing prices down to support levels of $69.42. Conversely, should the trend reverse, resistance might be met near $74.34 a barrel.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
HE: Upside Potential on Pork Prices with New Hog Cycle UnderwayCME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! )
Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average.
In the futures market, CME Live Cattle ( NASDAQ:LE ) hit bottom at $85 per cwt in April 2020 during the pandemic lockdown period. Since then, cattle prices have trended up in a straight line to top $185 by this September, before pulling back recently in Q4. Beef prices have more than doubled, while the official reading of CPI for Food and Beverage went up by only 27% in the past five years.
Fortunately, you could still find low-cost meats if you walk over to the Pork section. Based on the USDA National Daily Hog and Pork report, Hog Carcass averaged $60 per cwt last Friday. It is a whopping 29% discount comparing to the $85 price tag on the same day last year. Ham price averaged $84, which is $10 cheaper than the same period last year.
In the futures market, CME Lean Hog ( NYSE:HE ) tends to move up and down in a cycle average 2-3 years. This phenomenon is referred to as “Hog Price Cycle” or “Hog Cycle” in agricultural economics. Pork prices do not appear to be impacted by the inflation.
The Hog Cycle
Hog cycles are the changes recurring in agriculture in the production and prices. A complete hog cycle includes successive years of increase and decrease in hog production cycle. In general, a higher level of hog inventory will result in pork supply surplus, and cause hog and pork prices to fall in future months. Lower hog stock leads to pork supply shortage and will cause prices to rise.
There is a mismatch between hog production cycle and hog price cycle, because it takes time to produce hogs, from farrow to weaned pig, and from feeder pig to market pig. To complete a feedback loop, a producer first observes change in market prices, he then adjusts production level accordingly. It will be 5-6 months later before the change in hog output occurs. We could describe the sequence of events in the following:
1) As producers incur loss from low price, they liquidate sows and reduce hog inventories.
2) A lower level of hog production results in a shortage of pork supply (months later).
3) Pork price goes up as supply could not meet demand.
4) Higher hog price induces producers to raise hog inventory.
5) Higher hog production results in a surplus of pork supply (months later).
6) Hog price declines due to the oversupply of pork in the market.
Sow Liquidation Could Lead to Lower Hog Supply in 2024
Iowa State University (ISU) is a leading authority in swine research. Based on the estimates put out by ISU Economics Department, a typical Farrow-to-Finish hog producer in the U.S. would have incurred losses in ten out of the last twelve months.
As shown in the table below, a producer farrowed in September 2022 would pay $129.15 in feed cost and $71.90 in nonfeed cost per hog. When he sold the hog with an average weight of 270 pounds in April 2023, he would receive $148.83 and a manure credit of $8.50, resulting in a net loss of $49.47. These steep losses average $21 per month from November 2022 to October 2023. Hog farmers may be forced to liquidate sows this winter. It could result in lower hog inventory and lower pork supply in the coming months.
In the 2023 September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs was 74.3 million heads. This was up slightly YOY, and up 2% Q2, 2023.
The new quarterly report will be released in two weeks. The updated data would help us validate whether sow liquidation has increased as we hypothesize.
USMEF Export Data
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently posted export data for October. U.S. pork exports posted another strong performance, led by record-large shipments to Mexico and broad-based growth elsewhere. October beef exports remained well below last year’s large totals but improved from September.
October pork exports totaled 245,345 metric tons (mt), up 3% YOY as the largest since June, valued at $688.2 million. For the first 10 months of 2023, pork exports increased 9% YOY to 2.38 million mt, with value up 6% to $6.66 billion.
In my opinion, the sharp decline in hog prices increases the competitiveness of U.S. pork around the world, fueling the export boom.
CFTC COT Report
The U.S. futures market regulator CFTC publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and provides a breakdown of open interest for futures and options markets. What’s the key takeaway from the December 5th COT report on CME leaned hog?
Weekly CFTC data showed the lean hog speculative traders were closing longs and adding shorts during the week that ended 12/5. That left the funds with a 3.4k contract stronger net short of 17,963. This may be a bearish signal. However, speculative traders may have incurred large losses on the long positions, and they simply took cover.
Trading Opportunity with Lean Hog Futures
To sum up the above analysis, I expect to see lower hog supply due to sow liquidation in the coming months. This will usher a new hog cycle. See step (1) in the 6-step hog cycle above.
With a strong labor market and cooling inflation, particularly lower gasoline prices, we could see some improvement in consumer demand for pork. A strong export market reduces supply surplus in the domestic market, which also helps lift pork prices.
The April 2024 lean hog futures (HEJ4) was settled at $74.625 last Friday. Each contract has a notional value of 40,000 pounds, or $29,850 at current price. To acquire 1 long or short position, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $1,500.
The trader could see higher hog prices if sow liquidation speeds up, and the export market remains strong. A long position would profit from the rise in hog price. Each contract would gain $400 for every 1 penny of increase in hog price per pound.
On the other hand, hog prices could stay low if the opposite happens.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
XAUUSD: Channel Up offering trading opportunities.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H timeframe since the Nov 12th low. Stable bullish technical outlook on 4H (RSI = 66.543, MACD = 8.550, ADX = 30.155), which calls for an extension of the current price action which is at the bottom of the Channel Up currently, to a new HH. We aim at a +1.96% rise (symmetrical with previous bullish legs), TP = 2,030.
Sell if the 4H MA50 breaks (current Support) and target the 4H MA200, our current projected TP = 1,975 but will change depending on when the breakout happens.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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Crude Oil Review and Forecast
API Actual: 9.047M
API Consensus: 1.467M
EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M
EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M
EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M
EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M
As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected.
Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well.
The key major resistances are as follow:
Top: $77.8
Mid: $75.5
Low: $72.12
The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders.
Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus.
With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market.
The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude:
CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST
European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST
The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM
Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day
Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
Managing Positions with Parallel ChannelVideo tutorial:
• How to identify downtrend and uptrend line
• How to draw parallel channel correctly
• Confirming a change in trend (using trendline itself)
• Managing positions with parallel lines
- Profits
- Risks
- Knowing its volatility
Micro Natural Gas Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.001 per MMBtu = $1.00
Code: MNG
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
XAUUSD - MY VIEW 30 MINS TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
BluetonaFX - USOIL Descending Triangle PatternHi Traders!
The bearish price action continues on the USOIL 1D chart, and there may be possible opportunities for short entries.
Price Action 📊
The market has had lower highs and lower lows since breaking below the 3-month low and 20 EMA, creating a descending triangle pattern on the chart.
We are looking for further bearish momentum to break and close the trendline support line and continue to the downside.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The market's outlook on USOIL is currently negative due to continuing dips in oil prices following tensions in the Middle East.
Support 📉
74.57: TRENDLINE SUPPORT
Resistance 📈
79.01: TRENDLINE RESISTANCE
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
XAUUSD: Bullish Divergence on 4H.Gold turned bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 43.890, MACD = -0.091, ADX = 34.371) after the November Channel Down almost hit the 4H MA200. It hit our 1,935.50 TP nonetheless (see previous signal at the bottom), and now the short term is giving us a buy signal in the event of a break over the Channel Down.
The 4H RSI holds a HL trendline which is a Bullish Divergence against the LL of the Channel Down. Consequently we will open a long if the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, which is highly likely ahead of the U.S. CPI report tomorrow, and target a Triple Resistance level, the 4H MA50, the R1 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 1,965).
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XAGUSD: Channel Down confirmed sell signal.Silver has failed to close a 1D candle over the 1D MA50 for four straight sessions and as it previously did on the 1D MA200, this is a bearish signal. Its confirmation is the 1D MACD that formed a Bearish Cross and each time the market has done so since April, inside this long term Channel Down, a new Low was made.
Even the 1D technical outlook just turned bearish (RSI = 44.205, MACD = -0.090, ADX = 34.407) and today's late session rise gives us a better opportunity to enter a short and target the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 20.850).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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BluetonaFX - SILVER Range Zone SHORT to SupportHi Traders!
Silver continues to trade in the range zone as it cannot break above the 23.765 resistance area.
Price Action 📊
The current price action looks bearish. Market highs and lows have started to become lower due to numerous price rejections around the 23.765 level. The market also recently broke and closed below the 20 EMA, and there are opportunities to use the EMA as a focus point to sell rallies.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
Ultimately, precious metals in general got hit this week, as the US dollar has rebounded quite a bit. Additionally, interest rates in America are picking up, which has offered a bit of a reason for investors and speculators to start selling precious metals.
Support 📉
22.292: PREVIOUS DAY'S LOW
20.678: 4 WEEK LOW
Resistance 📈
22.838: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH
23.765: RANGE ZONE RESISTANCE
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
Gold: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Gold
Pattern – Breakout/resistance test
Support – 1817.90 - 1918
Resistance – 1944 - 1981
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the Gold on the daily chart.
So price has moved rather quickly today to the upside. Earlier, I was watching the consolidation and wondering if buyers might test it. Well, they not only tested it but broke out. We have run over this move and the next resistance levels in today's update.
The key here is influences, and we will keep seeing demand. If tensions continue, we could see 1980/81 retested based on the current buying speed. But also be wary of any changes in influences as it could lead to fast profit taking.
Oil has been another mover today, adding close to 1.5%. It's also a market we are keeping an eye on as we track towards the European session open.
Good trading.
Brent Oil Short Trade Consideration(1)We are looking at Brent oil for a potential short trade only if the following occurs:
1.Wait for Daily bottom to confirm
2.Then for top to confirm before taking shorts till Weekly Confirmation Bar
low is taken out at 83.46
**We will only be considering this short trade for a very small period as Weekly is in Uptrend**
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Refn weekly Image
XAUUSD: Very alarming MACD Bearish Cross long term.Gold continues to flash bearish signals and besides the weekly (RSI = 34.620), it is about to turn technically bearish on the monthly timeframe as well (RSI = 48.938, MACD = 40.760, ADX = 33.051). On an even larger scale (3M), we have detected the latest sell indication, as the MACD formed a Bearish Cross.
With the price inside a giant Megaphonoe pattern where all candles have closed inside it, we can expect the current correction to extend as low as its bottom. During Gold's last accumulation phase (2015-2018), it was the 3M MA50 that saved the day and after testing and holding, it started the 2019 parabolic run.
Is this test inevitable?
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Live Trading Session 240: Live positions on Gold and EurIn this live trading session video,we look at our live running position on gold and the closed trade on EURUSD. Both these trades were take live on the RTCT webinar and still running. They are based on the Smart money framework,cycle methodolgy and volume principles.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
US Oil Approaches $90 Amidst Supply Scare and Cooling DemandIntroduction:
The oil market is heating up, and there's an exciting opportunity knocking at our doors. Brace yourselves as we delve into the recent surge in US oil prices, which have approached the $90 mark due to a scare in supply and cooling demand. In this article, we will explore the factors driving this upward trajectory and present a compelling call-to-action for those ready to seize this golden opportunity and long oil!
The Supply Scare:
In recent months, the global oil market has been grappling with a series of supply disruptions, sending shockwaves through the industry. From hurricanes disrupting offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to geopolitical tensions impacting major oil-producing regions, the supply scare has created a perfect storm for oil prices to skyrocket. As traders, we understand the significance of such disruptions and the potential for them to create lucrative opportunities.
Cooling Demand:
Simultaneously, we have witnessed a cooling in demand, primarily driven by concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19 and its impact on global economic recovery. Travel restrictions, reduced industrial activity, and shifting consumer behavior have all contributed to a temporary dip in oil demand. However, as the world adapts to the new normal and economies gradually reopen, the demand for oil is expected to rebound, further fueling the potential for significant returns.
The Perfect Storm for Traders:
The convergence of supply disruptions and cooling demand has created an ideal environment for traders to capitalize on the oil market's upward momentum. With US oil prices inching closer to the $90 mark, there's an undeniable opportunity to long oil and ride the wave of potential profits.
Call-to-Action: Long Oil Now!
Fellow traders, it's time to seize the moment and embrace the exciting prospects that lie ahead. Here's a compelling call-to-action to encourage you to long oil:
Conduct Thorough Research: Dive deep into the current market dynamics, examining supply trends, geopolitical factors, and demand projections. This will enable you to make informed decisions and identify the best entry points for long positions.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Consider incorporating oil-related assets into your trading portfolio to leverage the potential upside. Options such as oil futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even energy sector stocks can provide exposure to the oil market's upward movement.
Set Realistic Targets and Manage Risk: Establish clear profit targets and implement risk management strategies to protect your investments. Utilize stop-loss orders, trailing stops, or other risk mitigation tools to ensure you don't get caught off guard by unexpected market fluctuations.
Stay Informed and Adapt: Monitor market news, industry reports, and expert opinions to stay ahead of the curve. The oil market can be volatile, and being proactive in adjusting your positions based on new information is crucial for maximizing returns.
Conclusion:
Traders, the time has come to embrace the exciting opportunity presented by the surge in US oil prices. With supply scares and cooling demand paving the way for potential gains, it's time to long oil and ride the wave of profits. By conducting thorough research, diversifying your portfolio, setting realistic targets, and staying informed, you can position yourself for success in this dynamic market. So, let's seize this moment and make the most of this exciting trading opportunity!
S&P quick Bounce but don't be fooledES made some considerable moves to the downside this week. Now it is time to partially rebalance those scales.
My expectations for the first few days of this week:
Monday-Tuesday-
Upwards retracement with price being pulled upwards by 4553.
Once there I will look for area rejection signs for our next leg down to the 4483.25 target.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Double Buy entry on this Channel Up.WTI Crude Oil hit the HL trendline inside the 1H Channel Up pattern, which was enough to turn the 1H technical outlook bearish (RSI = 37.852, MACD = 0.140, ADX = 31.002). A 1H RSI that low has previously been a buy entry two days ago. The lowest it has been during this Channel Up was 35.400.
In response to the above, we deem the HL hold good enough to make a first buy attempt and target the top of the Channel (TP = 92.00) on another +3.21% increase. If the price crosses under the HL we will make a second buy attempt at the bottom of the Channel Up (assuming the 1H MA200 holds) and target the 0.382 - 0.236 Fibonacci range on R1 (TP = 91.10)
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Is gold going to continue further south?We have entered Gold on the daily confirmation bar on a short trade. This is based on a daily P1 trend continuation move, and along with a weekly continuation trade move according to our smart money framework indicator. You can see on the image below on which part of the cycle we are in on the weekly timeframe and how that matches up with the daily. According to our OE tables, we can see that there is a 70% chance that the weekly potential low will be taken and for the short move to continue further.
Gold(Short)
E - 1925.6
ISL - 1953
T - TBC
Trailing stop at 1932
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
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