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COPPER Commodity or Junior Miner trade LONGCopper prices rise when the economy is thought to be growing and needing more electrical infrastructure while they fall when bearish indicators might project a recession. I am at the aluminum and finished steel subsectors as well. FCX is under consideration but as a large cap it does not have the volatility of the junior miners. In the meanwhile COPJ, CPER and COPX look like they are worth considering given the trend up since mid-February. The chosen strength and trend indicators confirm the trend. This is a long trade and sector rotation play for those to consider that are tired of tech stocks and earnings plays.
NASDAQ:COPJLong
by AwesomeAvani
1 Week Later and Oil is down 3.66%1 Week after the beggining of conflict between Israel and Iran in the middle east, Crude Oil is down 3.66%. Price began trending down all week and then on Thursday there was news of a bombing by Israel which caused a spike in Oil(3.5). This whole move was corrected and we are back to being down on the week. This opposes what I believed may play out this week as my thoughts were 1. Oil is a precious commodity and needed in War 2. The trend thus far this year is Bullish (we are up 13.82%) The market is instead going down and retraced this week. We are currently sitting on the Daily support level 81.23. Price action looks bearish on the Daily as we have a large top wick on the current candle.. moving into the next few weeks we will have a bearish weekly candle behind us that may aid in a descent towards the next Daily level 80.65 and beyond to the next weekly level 77.82. Also, this is in line with current risk-off market sentiment as Oil (Risk-on) is a commodity after all Daily timeframe : The Daily timeframe retested Daily resistance (85.65) and we rejected.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx
More downside for XPTUSD (Platinum)XTPUSD has been rallying ever since it broke out of its two week sell off a couple days ago but there are now signs showing that the upward momentum could be coming to a end. Technical : The 3 EMA is crossing over the 10 EMA to the downside while at the same time the Stochastic is crossing the 50% mark to the downside as well. These Bearish confluences are happening while we are nearing the bottom Trendline, making a breakdown higher probability. Target a 1-1.5% move down from your entry/break
EIGHTCAP:XPTUSDShort
by Iateyourcroissant
Options Blueprint Series: Debit Spreads - Precision InvestingIntroduction to Options on Corn Futures Corn Futures are one of the staple commodities traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), representing a critical component of the agricultural sector's financial instruments. Each Corn Futures contract is standardized to 5,000 bushels, and the price is quoted in USD-cents per bushel. Contract Specifications: Point Value: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50. Margins: Trading on margin allows traders to leverage positions while only needing to cover a fraction of the total contract value. For Corn Futures, the initial margin requirement is set by the CME Group and varies based on market volatility: Currently $1,300 per contract at the time of this publication. Options trading introduces another layer of complexity and opportunity. Debit spreads involve purchasing one option and selling another, which helps manage the overall cost of entering the market. Margin for Debit Spreads: The margin for debit spreads typically reflects the premium paid for the long position minus any premium received from the short position. This results in a significantly lower margin requirement compared to trading the underlying futures contract outright. (In the below example the net premium paid for the spread is 7.26 points = $363, which is significantly lower than $1,300). Understanding Debit Spreads Debit spreads are a sophisticated options trading strategy utilized primarily to achieve a targeted investment outcome while managing risk exposure. They are constructed by purchasing an option (call or put) while simultaneously selling another option of the same type (call or put) but with a different strike price, within the same expiration period. The aim is to reduce the net cost of the position, as the premium received from the sold option offsets part of the cost incurred from the bought option. Mechanics of Debit Spreads: Long Position: You buy an option that you expect to increase in value as the market moves in your favor. Short Position: You sell another option with a higher strike (in the case of a call spread) or a lower strike (in the case of a put spread). This option is expected to expire worthless or decrease in value, offsetting the cost of the long position. Advantages of Using Debit Spreads: Defined Risk: The maximum loss on a debit spread is limited to the net premium paid plus transaction costs. This makes it easier to manage risk, especially in volatile markets. Potential for Profit: Although the profit potential is capped at the difference between the strike prices minus the net debit paid, these spreads can still offer attractive returns relative to the risk undertaken. Lower Cost of Entry: Compared to buying a single option, spreads typically require a lower upfront investment, making them accessible to a wider range of traders. This strategic application is what we'll explore next in the context of Corn Futures, where market conditions suggest a potential breakout. Application in Corn Futures For traders looking to harness the volatility in the agricultural sector, especially in commodities like corn, debit spreads can be a precision tool for structured trading. Given the current trading range of Corn Futures, with prices oscillating between 424 cents and 448 cents per bushel for a number of weeks, a strategic setup can be envisioned aiming for an upward breakout towards 471 cents, a resistance level indicated by Sell UnFilled Orders (UFOs). Strategy Implementation with Debit Spreads: Long Call Option: Buying a call option with a strike price near the lower end of the current range (450) positions traders to benefit from potential upward movements. Premium paid is 10.39 ($519.5) Short Call Option: Simultaneously, selling a call option with a strike price at 475 cents caps the maximum profit but significantly reduces the cost of entering the trade. This strike is chosen because it aligns closely with the expected UFO resistance level, enhancing the probability of the short option expiring worthless. Premium received is 3.13 ($156.5). The net cost of the spread ($519.5 - $156.5 = $363) represents the total risk. We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Setting up the Trade To potentially capitalize on the anticipated market movement for Corn Futures, our debit spread strategy will involve a detailed setup of options trades based on specific strike prices that align with market expectations and technical analysis. This step-by-step guide will provide clarity on how to effectively enter and manage this options strategy. Trade Details: Long Call Option: Buy a call option with a strike price of 450. This option is chosen as it is near the current upper boundary of the trading range, providing a favorable entry point as we anticipate a breakout. Short Call Option: Sell a call option with a strike price of 475. This strike is selected based on its proximity to the identified resistance level at 471, suggesting a high likelihood that the price may not exceed this level before expiration. Cost and Profit Analysis: Net Premium Paid: $363 as discussed above. Break-even Point: Long strike price (450) plus the net premium paid = 457.26. Maximum Profit: The maximum profit for this debit spread is capped at the difference between the two strike prices minus the net premium paid = 475 – 450 – 7.26 = 17.74 = $887. Maximum Loss: The maximum risk is limited to the net premium paid. Risk Management By entering a debit spread, traders not only define their maximum risk but also set clear targets for profitability based on established market thresholds. This methodical approach ensures that even if the anticipated price movement does not fully materialize, the financial exposure remains controlled. Risk Management Techniques: Position Sizing: Determine the appropriate size of the position based on overall portfolio risk and individual risk tolerance. Stop-Loss Orders: Although the maximum loss is capped by the nature of the debit spread (the net premium paid), stop-loss orders can be used if the underlying asset moves against the trader. Rolling the Spread: If market conditions change or the initial price target is reached earlier than expected, consider 'rolling' the spread. Adjusting the Trade: If the price of Corn Futures approaches the short strike price (475) faster than anticipated, and market sentiment indicates further upward potential, the short call option can be bought back while a new higher strike call can be sold. This adjustment aims to extend the profitable range of the spread without increasing the original risk by much. Conversely, if the price seems unlikely to reach the 450 mark, reassess the viability of keeping the spread open. It may be prudent to close the position early to preserve capital if fundamental market factors have shifted negatively. Importance of Continuous Monitoring: Regularly monitor market conditions, including factors like weather reports, agricultural policies, and economic indicators that significantly impact corn prices. Stay updated with technical analysis charts and adjust strategies according to new resistance and support levels identified. Effective risk management not only protects from downside risk but also enhances the potential for profitability by adapting to changing market conditions. Conclusion The strategic use of debit spreads in Corn Futures options trading offers a balanced approach to leverage market opportunities while maintaining strict control over potential risks. Recap of Key Points: Corn Options on Futures: Understanding the contract specifics is crucial for informed trading decisions. Debit Spreads: These allow traders to benefit from expected price movements with reduced upfront costs and limited risk. Trade Setup: Focused on a potential breakout from the 448-424 range aiming towards 471, utilizing 450 and 475 strikes for the long and short calls respectively. Risk Management: Emphasizes the importance of position sizing, potential use of stop-loss orders, and the flexibility to adjust or roll the spread according to market changes. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
2
Gold: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Gold Pattern – Correctional phase. Support – Resistance – $2394 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold on the daily chart. We have reviewed recent price actions and our thoughts on what we are seeing and looking for moving forward. Is this just a bout of profit-taking that will kick off a new trend? The next rally is key for us and could give us signs depending on what we see from price. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Eightcap
Oil Pulls back off the Daily LowsOil decreased during London session as we were anticipating from our last Analysis. We are still anticipating a further decrease in the medium term but in the short term here we may pullback. This is what the price action is telling us as we have pin Bar candles on the 1hr and 4hr charts that printed at our 2 daily support level's 81.22 and 80.64. This suggests some bullishness in the short term and a possible retracment towards our 4hr resistance zone 82.52. Factors that support a Risk-On push include a decreasing Vix on the day, a intraday downtrend on the Gold price suggesting risk on sentiment.
TVC:USOILLong
by ShrewdCatfx
WTI CRUDE OIL: Testing the 1D MA50 after 2 months.WTI Crude Oil came to day to the closest point it has been near the 1D MA50 in more than 2 months, since the February 6th breakout. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 48.820, MACD = 1.03, ADX = 27.71) indicating that this is the most efficient buy entry since the February low. The market has already formed a 1D Golden Cross and displays striking similarities with the 2023 rally, which on August 24th 2023 made a bottom near the 1D MA50 and on the 0.5 Fibonacci level with the price then rallying enormously to 95.00. Due to this strong symmetry, we expect an identical pattern thus turning bullish again and aiming at the R1 level (TP = 95.00) once more. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
Oil: Thoughts and analysis Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Continuation? Support – 85.38 Resistance – 87.37 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at oil on the daily. After a surge from the USD caught a lot of attention yesterday, we are watching oil after it rejected a push lower by sellers and continues to hold in a potential continuation type set-up. Do you think that price is showing signs of a continuation? Could a close above yesterday's high signal a new move higher that could test resistance at 87.37? Watch out for a new move lower that tests the 85.50 area, as that could be a sign that sellers have more numbers than first thought. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
Unlocking Profit Potential XAU/USD Buy Trade AnalysisHey Nathima fams! I hope you're all doing great! I wanted to share an exciting trading opportunity I've identified on gold. Here's why it's looking promising: Weekly Strong Bullish Trend: The weekly chart is showing a robust bullish trend, indicating significant upward momentum in the price of gold. Buy Opportunity: Considering this bullish trend, I'm highly confident in a buy opportunity on gold. Target Range: I'm aiming for a target range of 2183 to 2208. This range aligns with both technical indicators and market sentiment, increasing the probability of a successful trade. Profit Potential: With this trade, there's a fantastic opportunity to make substantial profits. By leveraging the current market conditions and strategic entry points, we can maximize our gains. Let's capitalize on this opportunity together and turn it into a profitable venture! If you're ready to join me in this trade, let's make it happen and celebrate our success as a team. Here's to winning trades and amazing profits!
TVC:GOLDLong
by nathimafxreal
3 Commodities to watch closely this week Cocoa: Cocoa futures hit $9,400 a ton for the first time ever, marking a 45% increase in March. Poor harvests in key producing countries such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, where adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains from El Niño and subsequent extreme heat, have led to supply shortages. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator anticipates a 33% decrease in production, from 600,000 MT to 400,000 MT. European Gas: European natural gas futures are trading near €29/MWh, maintaining levels last seen in early February following a terrorist attack on a concert hall near Moscow. Additional attacks (related to Russia war on Ukraine and not the terrorist attack) on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine have further fueled supply concerns. However, prices could ease as Europe moves beyond the heating season. Gold: Last week, the US Federal Reserve maintained its expected 75-basis points reduction in the Fed Fund rate this year, aligning with previous communications. This contributed to gold reaching a new all-time high before a subsequent decline. Analysis might suggest a bullish pattern forming, with the possibility of gold surpassing $2,200/oz. and testing the ATH near $2,225/oz., while maintaining support levels around $2,150/oz.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Is GOLD about to Tanks/Drop?I wont lie, this one scares me the most, XAUUSD looks like it might be in some trouble. Im seeing a selloff happening from around this range, looks like we are still in a big correction which will end around the 1600.00 to 1500.00 range. Where all is in confluence i will update you guys on this. This is not me saying sell or what, im just sharing what I'm currently observing, and when the right time comes for us to execute orders, i will update y'all. NFA as always.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Theofylrx
WTI CRUDE OIL: Turning bearish with two clear targets.WTI Crude Oil has almost reached on Wednesday our 83.50 long-term TP and it is time for us to turn bearish and consider a long-term selling approach. Technically, the 1D chart already almost turned neutral (RSI = 56.205, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 32.453) and hasn't even approached the 1D MA200. We are targeting a decline near the 1D MA50 (TP = 78.00). If the price closes a 1D candle under it, we will sell again and target the 1W MA200 (TP = 74.50), which as explained in previous analyses and as you can see on this chart, it has been the long-term Support since February 1st 2021. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6. NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast. The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report. The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months. Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Pandorra
WTI OIL: Bearish more likely long term.WTI Oil is neutral on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 51.426, MACD = -0.040, ADX = 21.884) as it is about to close the third straight week trading sideways on the 1W MA50. On this long term chart, we can clearly see that the price hasn't crossed over the R1 level (79.75) since November 13 2023. As long as it keeps closing the 1W candle under it, we are bearish aiming at the 1W MA200 (TP = 73.50), which has been the ultimate Support in tha past few years, closing all 1W candles above it (see the circles). If on the other hand the 1W candle closes over the R1 level, expect a 83.50 test of the Symmetrical Resistance and 1W MA100, which is a Resistance level only crossed once since December 2022. The 1W RSI trend looks like October 2022 (over the RSI's MA), which was a pattern that was followed by a strong decline. Consequently, we will sell one more time if the 1W candle closes under the 1W MA200 and target near the S1 Zone (TP = 65.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
GOLD: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: GOLD Pattern – Channel Test Support – 2023 - 2020 Resistance – 2035.80 - 2055.60 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold on the daily chart. Gold saw a solid session to end last week but failed to break its price channel. Will we see the channel hold price and possibly send it back to the bottom on the pattern? Or could we see the current short-term bull run contnue to push higher with a break out of the the channel? The USD could play a role in this picture. Currently, it is fought back from a piercing low, but is that a true sign of demand or just a short-term bleep before sellers start a new push? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Eightcap
Silver: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Silver Pattern – Breakout test. Support – 21.90, 22.84 Resistance – 23,45 23.19 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Silver on the daily chart. Looking at Silver, we see that price continues to pull back after breaking out of a triangle-based squeeze pattern. This is fine after a breakout but we want to see 22.84 hold as support for buyers. If it does, we will look for a move to retest resistance, set up a range break, and possibly confirm a new up trend. If sellers break 22.84 support, this could be a worry, and if other factors weigh in, like metals sector selling and or a firmer USD, this could lead to deeper tests to the downside. Do you think buyers can hold and set up a new push higher? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Eightcap
Oil: Thoughts and Analysis. Resistance Continues!Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Resistance re-hold Support – $77.21, $76.30 Resistance – $78.85 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Oil on the daily chart. Today, we have broken down how we see price and key levels. Once again, we have seen resistance re-hold and a new move lower after tests failed. Will we see a new move lower traders as we have seen in the past after buyers failed to break resistance? Or will we see the current trend hold and a new test and break of resistance eventuate? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Nickel: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Nickel (XNIUSD) Pattern – Diagonal Pattern Support – 15,840 Resistance – 17,198, 18,500 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Nickel on the daily chart. We have been watching Nickel for a few weeks now, traders, as the consolidation pattern continues to drag out. The shape of the pattern at this point is on the ending diagonal side. That can mean reversal, but it's far from a classic, and we have also run over some of the fundamental circumstances that have been driving Nickel lower since 2023. Will we see the downtrend resume with a new lower breakout, or could this consolidation pattern set up a new higher push by buyers? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XNIUSDLong
by Eightcap