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Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are to announce their interest rate decisions tomorrow, while sharing the same 75 basis points forecast. Upon some weakened economic indicator readings, Mitrade expects the two central banks would slow down on the rate hike next month.
As a result, the greenback has also put the brakes on its peers, EUR/USD closed lower at 0.9874, just recovered to 0.9885, and GBP/USD added slightly to 1.1483. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.85%, aligning with market projections.
USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3629, and USD/JPY declined and closed at 148.28.
Upon raising hopes for China to re-open its cities and factories, WTI oil futures increased to $88.37 a barrel. Later tonight, the US Crude Oil Inventories are estimated to add 367,000 barrels. Gold price climbed to $1,647.8 an ounce, after reaching a high of 1,655.14.
Commoditytrading
GOLD (XAU/USD): bearish perspective. When do we sell?Looking at the 4h-timeframe chart of Gold, the following can be observed: the price is pulling back to re-test the 1658 - 1659 area of previously penetrated support which now serves as a zone of resistance. The same area nicely lines up with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Once that specific key zone is reached, we are looking into closely monitoring the price action and eyeing possible short positions.
The initial target is plotted on the graph.
Happy November!
The Dow recorded the highest monthly gain since 1976EUR/USD 🔽
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Yesterday, the stock market has returned to previous gains, and all major US indices recorded moderate losses. Although the Dow fell 128 points to 32,732, Mitrade observed it has also recorded the highest monthly gain for October at 13.95% - the highest since 1976.
Later today, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, as AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6368 to close at 0.6397 with minor losses. EUR/USD declined to 0.9883, Eurozone inflation went higher to 10.7% on the year in October. GBP/USD has the steepest loss of almost 150 pips to 1.1469.
USD/CAD peaked at 1.3677 and retreated to 1.3622, while USD/JPY climbed and stabilized at 148.71.
Higher US oil production estimates and slowed Chinese manufacturing data have weakened oil prices, WTI oil futures fell to $86.53 a barrel. The imminent Federal Reserve rate hike sends gold prices down to $1,633.64 an ounce.
More controversies in the new Twitter regimeEUR/USD 🔽
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Despite the monthslong process, the drama between Elon Musk and Twitter is far from over, key executives were fired, and alleged conversations were leaked. Meanwhile, Twitter’s stock price is mostly trading flat at $53.70.
Major U.S. stock indexes have extended their gains by more than 2%. The Dow Jones has enjoyed a four-week winning streak, increasing 828 points (+2.59%) to 32,861, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 added 93 points and 354 points respectively.
USD/CAD climbed to 1.36, and USD/JPY increased 119 pips to 147.45.
EUR/USD continued to close below parity at 0.9963, currently at 0.9952. Later tonight, the Eurozone inflation rate is expected to record an annual increase of 10.2%. GBP/USD stabilized near the month-high level and closed at 1.161.
AUD/USD declined to 0.6411, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow, Mitrade has estimated a 25 basis points rate hike. Gold price slid further down to $1,642.76 an ounce, and WTI oil futures fluctuated and closed lower at $87.9 a barrel.
ECB raised rates by 75 basis pointsEUR/USD 🔽
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The latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank aligned with market projections at 75 basis points, while the statement had indicated a more dovish approach to control inflation. Once again, EUR/USD plunged below parity to 0.9962. The British Pound fell to 1.1564 against the greenback, and AUD/USD closed lower at 0.6449.
On the other hand, Mitrade was informed that US GDP data exceeded expectations by growing 2.6% compared to the previous quarter, the strong readings displayed resilience in the US economy. As a result, the Federal Reserve should gain more confidence in announcing more aggressive rate hikes.
USD/CAD bounced back from a low of 1.3501 to 1.3563, and gold price suffered minor losses at $1,663.39 an ounce. WTI oil futures rose to a high of $89.61 and closed at $89.08 a barrel. In the stock market, Meta Platforms (META) was struck by a lackluster earnings report, which made its prices drop 24.56%, currently at 97.94.
Euro / Dollar returns above parityEUR/USD 🔼
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Underperforming earnings from tech giants Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have sent major stock indices reeling. As Alphabet and Microsoft’s stock prices have dropped 9.14% and 7.72% respectively, signs of a slowed economy are likely to make the Federal Reserve slow down on the rate hikes in December.
Meanwhile, the news has also weakened the greenback, allowing EUR/USD to surge above parity and stabilized at 1.0077. Later this afternoon, Mitrade was informed that the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points to 2.00 %. AUD/USD closed higher at 0.6497 with notable gains.
Although the British Parliament is still heavily divided as the new Prime Minister is in office, GBP/USD led its peers by adding over 150 pips to 1.1627. The Bank of Canada only increases its interest rate by 50 basis points - lower than the estimate of 75, USD/CAD fell to a low of 135.13 and recovered to 1.3551. USD/JPY declined further to 146.35.
With investors looking forward to a less hawkish Federal Reserve, gold prices rose steadily to $1,664.76 an ounce. Despite an increase in crude oil inventories by 2.59 million barrels, WTI oil futures have increased to $87.91 a barrel.
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼
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Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91.
EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394.
Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
Rishi Sunak wins the UK Prime Minister raceEUR/USD 🔼
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After his last competitor leaves the race, Rishi Sunak will soon become the new leader of the UK conservative party, also the nation’s Prime Minister. While the market looks forward to better financial stability in the UK, the British Pound has declined to 1.1275 against the US dollar.
While the Japanese government did not confirm a previous market intervention in its currency rate, USD/JPY had surged more than 140 pips and stabilized at 148.96. USD/CAD rose to 1.3704, investors expect a 75 bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Thursday.
EUR/USD closed at 0.9874 with minor gains, and the AUD/USD pair was last traded at 0.631, losing almost 70 pips. Gold price went below $1,650 to a closing price of $1,649.41 an ounce. Despite a slowed Chinese demand and a stronger greenback, WTI oil futures suffered only minimal losses at $84.58 a barrel.
The dollar retreated after possible Japanese interventionEUR/USD 🔼
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Last week, the Yen/Dollar pair have went above the 150.0 level, then it plunged to a low of 146.31 and recovered to 147.64. As the market believed the Bank of Japan had intervened to prevent further depreciation, more is expected ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Meanwhile, USD/CAD dropped to 1.3638.
In the UK, the race for the newly vacated position of Prime Minister is likely a two-horse race, upon the decision from Boris Johnson to withdraw his candidacy. GBP/USD rebounded from 1.1074 to 1.1302, as the Euro surged from 0.9713 to 0.986 versus the greenback.
AUD/USD met resistance at 0.6400 and closed at 0.6377. Gold price climbed almost $30 to 1,657.82 per ounce, thanks to a weakened dollar. WTI oil futures slightly increased to $85.05 a barrel.
Liz Truss resigns as UK Prime Minister EUR/USD 🔼
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British Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned from her post, after mounting political and economic pressure. GBP/USD peaked at 1.1332 and last traded at 1.1233, domestic retail sales and services PMI data will be available later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the euro retreated from a high of 0.9845 to 0.9783 versus the dollar, closing with minor gains, as AUD/USD slightly increased to 0.6275. USD/JPY finally went past the 150.0 level and stabilized, eventually closing at 150.14, the USD/CAD pair recovered from 1.3653 to 1.3763.
Gold price briefly went to $1,645.0 an ounce, and returned to 1,628.28, WTI oil futures traded lower at $84.51 a barrel.
High inflation and political crisis in the UKEUR/USD 🔽
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The new UK administration led by Liz Truss is under further scrutiny as the Home Secretary resigns, while price levels have risen by 10.1% last month - the highest level since 1990. Such news has brought down the British Pound to 1.1214 towards the US dollar. Eurozone also suffers from a 9.9% inflation rate, though slightly lower than the 10.0% forecast, EUR/USD declined to 0.9771.
Though the bond yield curve remains inverted, a rise in returns has fuelled the greenback's rise toward other major currencies. After minor oscillations, USD/CAD reached a closing price of 1.3764 with modest gains. USD/JPY is ever closer to the historical 150.0 level, after the currency pair closed at 149.89, and was last traded at 149.94.
Sluggish employment growth in Australia has surprised the market, original estimates were set for an increase of 25,000 jobs, but ended up with 9,000 only. As a result, AUD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.627. Gold price was weakened by the dollar’s strength, dropping to $1,629.16 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed to $84.52, upon news of crude oil inventories depleting 1.72 million barrels.
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;)
The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk!
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed Baby,
Sphatrades.
Double digits inflation is expected for Europe and the UKEUR/USD 🔼
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Later this afternoon, the latest inflation data for the Eurozone and the UK will be available, with the market expecting a 10% increase for both. While high inflation is likely to prompt respective central banks to tighten monetary policies further, their currencies have responded differently.
EUR/USD closed slightly higher at 0.9852, and the British Pound retreated from a high of 1.1404 to 1.1318 against the greenback.
Meanwhile, Canada will also announce its inflation readings, but projections are in the negative territory at -0.1%, higher than -0.3% in August. USD/CAD added 22 pips to 1.3738, as the US dollar climbs even higher towards the Japanese yen, the currency pair has increased steadily to 149.26.
As the dollar did not record any significant gains or losses from its peers, the gold price was allowed to rise to $1,652.01 an ounce. Upon news of the US releasing 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, WTI oil futures fell to $82.07 a barrel.
UK policy announcements fuels rally against the greenbackEUR/USD 🔼
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The new UK chancellor has scrapped more tax cuts in the "mini-budget", and slashed its energy subsidies. Although the new administration's grip on authority remains tenuous, the British Pound and Euro significantly managed to bounce back against the US dollar. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.1431, then retreated to 1.1353, while EUR/USD rose over 100 pips and closed at 0.9838.
Stocks also improved upon a return of risk appetite. The three major indices rebounded with notable gains, the biggest earner being the Nasdaq 100, which increased 370 points (+3.46%) to 11,062. Dow Jones and S&P 500 also added 1.86% and 2.65% respectively.
AUD/USD climbed and stabilized at 0.629, and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained that moderate rate hikes are likely needed to control inflation. USD/CAD plunged almost 170 pips to 1.3709, and USD/JPY traded higher to a 32-year high of 149.03.
A weaker dollar sees the gold price last trading at $1,650.67 after a high of $1,666.4 an ounce. WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $84.53 a barrel, citing Energy Information Administration's higher expectations in US oil production.
Stocks rally despite high US inflationEUR/USD 🔼
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Yesterday, the US Consumer Price Index data released had a 0.4% month-on-month increase and an 8.2% year-on-year increase, both higher than market estimates. Fear sentiment soon faded after an initial plunge in stocks, and a rally followed. All three major indices closed higher, with Dow Jones hitting a week-high at 11,056.
Instead of witnessing a strong greenback upon prospects for more Federal Reserve rate hikes, USD/CAD peaked at 1.3964 yesterday and last traded at 1.375 with minor losses. USD/JPY reached 147.66, a 32-year high, to a closing price of 147.22. AUD/USD recovered from a 2-1/2-year low of 0.6170 and closed at 0.6298 with minor gains.
The British Pound hit great strides as the market expects more U-turns regarding tax cuts mentioned in the proposed “mini-budget”. GBP/USD gained over 220 pips to 1.1329. EUR/USD hit a low of 0.9642, then bounced back to 0.9773. German Consumer Price Index had increased by 10% compared to last year.
Gold price briefly slumped to $1,644 and back to $1,666.26 an ounce. Although crude-oil inventories increased by 9.88 million barrels, against market projections of 1.75 million, WTI oil futures still rose and stabilized at $89.11 a barrel.
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼
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The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month.
EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103.
AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
The Bank of England to end gilt purchase programEUR/USD 🔼
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Amidst domestic financial turbulences, the Bank of England announced an emergency program to purchase UK government bonds - which will end on Friday. The decision was made public earlier by the central bank’s governor, a sudden spike in the Claimant Count Change readings to 25,500 was also detrimental to the British Pound, which made GBP/USD plunge below the 1.100 level to 1.0963, losing over 100 pips.
EUR/USD first closed at 0.9703 with minor gains, then climbed to a high of 0.9773, currently at 0.9684. The European continent had growing tensions after the Russian retaliation targeted Ukrainian civilians, as a mobilization in Belarus becomes more likely.
Fearing a resurgence of the pandemic in China, AUD/USD closed lower at 0.627, and briefly peaked at 0.6342. A possible stall in oil consumption also sees WTI oil futures gradually declining to $89.35 a barrel. Gold was last traded at $1,666.29 an ounce amidst a volatile session.
USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3796, though the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released early tomorrow morning, the market doesn’t expect new insights to swat the Federal Reserve’s determined hawkish stance.
GOLD Market updateHi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend!
Today, we're looking at a possible bullish uptrend to the 2nd Daily Key Lvl and 21 MA. Reason being, the price has reached the previous mini bearish half a bat patterns 3rd level. Usually when the price has reached the level, it forms a reversal pattern to confirm it. So, we're looking at two possible bullish reversal patterns that will likely form. Currently the price wants to form a bullish half a bat. If it bearish bounces off the 3rd Daily Key Lvl or Mini Monthly Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern, it will dis-confirm the half a bat pattern, and we'll be looking at a head and shoulder pattern formation that will lead to the bullish uptrend we're anticipating for this week.
That's it for today. I hope y'all found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday)
German Manufacturing PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
October 4 (Tuesday)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
RBA Interest Rate Decision
October 5 (Wednesday)
US JOLTs Job Openings
UK Composite PMI
US ADP Employment Change
October 6 (Thursday)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Australia Trade Balance
UK Construction PMI
Eurozone Retail Sales
Canada Ivey PMI
October 7 (Friday)
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
What You Need to Know This Week:
🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35%
🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market.
🔸 No major earnings report this week.
More information on Mitrade website.
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️
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A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies.
As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce.
After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow.
More information on Mitrade website.
US Oil - is the bearish move still valid ? Hey all,
On a montlhy chart, prices are giving a bearish signal with a cross of EMA, on the MACD indicator .
This bearish signal open a wider window for a more important retracement. First target is located at 73$ , flat of monthly Kijun. Then, 70$ with the golden ratio of Fibonacci extension.
On short term the situation is definitely bearish, with prices below the daily cloud .
Let's see how it goes !
USOIL - MONTHLY TIME FRAMEHi there,
#USOIL
The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy