Commoditytrading
Gold prices reached a six-month highEUR/USD 🔽
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The US stock market remains closed for the holiday, and prospects for 2023 have improved since investors anticipated slower inflation and interest rate hikes from major central banks.
Spot gold closed at $1,823.95 an ounce and then rose to a six-month high of $1,831.64. WTI oil futures climbed past $80 to $80.26 a barrel, while Bitcoin steadily increased to $16,695.0.
The Euro and Pound declined over 30 pips against the US dollar, closing at 1.0662 and 1.2045 respectively. German Manufacturing PMI for December last year was at 47.1, lower than the market estimate of 47.3. Later tonight, Mitrade expects the German year-on-year inflation rate will drop to 9.1.
AUD/USD traded slightly lower to 0.6802. USD/CAD gained 18 pips to 1.3572, but USD/JPY slid 40 pips to 130.73.
European gas price return to pre-war levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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With European countries imposing multiple economic sanctions on Russia, there were also efforts made to alleviate high energy prices due to supply shortages. As of 30 December, natural gas futures are trading at levels not seen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, thanks to adequate supply and mild weather conditions.
Even though Mitrade expected a drop of 1.52 million barrels, US crude inventories just increased by 718,000 barrels. WTI oil futures prices then fell to $78.4 per barrel. Spot gold added $10 to $1,814.95 an ounce, as Bitcoin traded higher at 16,626.0.
Other major currencies have rallied against the greenback. EUR/USD surged more than 50 pips to 1.0661, and GBP/USD almost climbed 50 pips to 1.2052. AUD/USD rose to 0.6780. USD/CAD slid to 1.3546, and USD/JPY plunged over 140 pips to 133.01.
The stock market also enjoyed a sharp rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 33,220 after adding 345 points, the S&P 500 reached 3,849 and the Nasdaq reached 10,951.
US stocks fall as bond yields riseEUR/USD 🔽
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Market sentiment remained subdued amidst high infection rates in China, as well as growing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield then rose to a month-high of 3.885%, sending the stock market to close lower.
All three major indices dropped yesterday. There was a 365-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 32,875, a 46-point drop in the S&P 500 to 3,783, and a 143-point slide in the Nasdaq 100 to 10,679.
Meanwhile, the greenback has strengthened against major currencies. USD/CAD added over 80 pips to 1.3608, and USD/JPY climbed to a week high of 134.49, before closing at 134.47. EUR/USD lost 30 pips to 1.0608, while GBP/USD and AUD/USD suffered minor losses at 1.2013 and 0.6736 respectively.
As a retaliation, Russia plans to impose an oil ban on those who follow the G7 price cap. However, lower demand expectations saw WTI oil futures trading lower at $78.96 a barrel. Spot gold retreated to $1,804.35 an ounce, as Bitcoin declined from $16,754.0 to $16,568.0.
US Stock markets closed lower after the holidayEUR/USD 🔼
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The holiday mood did not lift market sentiment. Extreme cold weather in the US has proved fatal in certain regions. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 37 points (+0.11%) to 33,241, the S&P 500 declined 15 points (-0.41%) to 3,829, and the Nasdaq 100 plunged 162 points (-1.48%) to 10,822.
While increasing infection rates in China have slowed WTI oil futures to close with minimal gains at $79.53 a barrel. Spot gold rose to a six-month high of $1,829.66 an ounce, then traded at $1,813.65. Bitcoin recovered from 16,650 to 16,754.0.
On the other hand, the greenback had varied performances against other major currencies. The Euro and AUD traded slightly higher towards the US dollar, closing at 1.0638 and 0.6729 respectively. Multiple strikes in the UK sent GBP/USD down over 30 pips to 1.2021.
USD/CAD declined more than 60 pips to 1.3522, and USD/JPY climbed 63 pips to 133.48.
XAUUSD - 240 MINS TIMEFRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
The US displays resilient GDP readingsEUR/USD 🔽
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The US has recorded the third consecutive positive GDP growth which exceeds Mitrade's estimates, with quarterly growth of 3.2%. As such, the greenback strengthened towards its peers, and EUR/USD dropped slightly to 1.0593, while AUD/USD decreased over 40 pips to 0.6666.
The UK had a set of disappointing GDP data, including a -0.3% quarterly slowdown, leading GBP/USD to lose 40 pips to 1.2036. USD/CAD added more than 30 pips to 1.3646, and USD/JPY traded lower at 132.33.
Spot gold lost support at the $1,800 level, closing at $1,792.56 an ounce. A high number of COVID cases in China has dimmed the outlook for global oil consumption. WTI oil futures then suffered minor losses at $77.49 a barrel. Bitcoin just recovered to 16,806.0.
In the previous session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 348 points (-1.05%) to 33,027, the S&P 500 lost 55 points (-1.44%) to 3,822, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 279 points (-2.49%) to 10,956.
GOLD - Will price drop?On GOLD, we have price at the supply zone with a rising wedge which is a reversal pattern. Lets see how price will play out on the lower timeframes
The greenback recovered ahead of GDP resultEUR/USD 🔽
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The latest GDP data from the US will be announced tonight, with Mitrade estimating a 2.9% quarterly increase, the same as last month. A minor relief from recession fears allowed the stock market to close higher. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 526 points (+1.60%), the S&P 500 gained 56 points (+1.49%) and the Nasdaq 100 rebounded 163 points (+1.48%).
Meanwhile, the US dollar has strengthened against most major currencies. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0603, and GBP/USD plunged 100 pips to 1.2083, though the AUD/USD pair rose over 30 pips to 0.6706. USD/CAD suffered minor losses at 1.3609, and USD/JPY recovered more than 60 pips to 132.47.
Spot gold declined slightly to $1,814.3 an ounce. As US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.89 million barrels, WTI oil futures closed higher at $78.29 a barrel. Bitcoin retreated to 16,790, and just rebounded to 16,837.0.
USD/JPY plunged to a low since AugustEUR/USD 🔼
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The Bank of Japan maintained a negative interest rate of -0.10%, but an unexpected change in its yield curve control surprised investors, Mitrade expects this will open up the possibility of monetary tightening. As a result, USD/JPY lost over 520 pips to a closing price of 131.7, the lowest level since August. USD/CAD also declined to 1.3609.
AUD/USD fell to a near-month low of 0.6631, which then rebounded to 0.6677. Otherwise, the US dollar weakened against its peers, with the Euro and British Pound closing higher at 1.0621 and 1.2181 respectively.
Slowed rate hikes from the Federal Reserve allowed spot gold to rally to $1,817.83 an ounce, gaining over $30. The European Union agreed to implement a price gap on natural gas, setting it at 180 euros per megawatt hour, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. WTI oil futures traded slightly higher to $76.23 a barrel, and Bitcoin further recovered to 16,879.0.
The major indices closed with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 92 points (+0.28%) to 32,849, the S&P 500 gained 4 points (+0.11%) to 3,821, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 12 points (-0.11%) to 11,072.
The Bank of Japan expected to maintain negative rate levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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As the rest of the world has been raising rates throughout most of 2022, Mitrade expects the Bank of Japan is likely to keep a negative rate level at -0.100%, with a possible policy shift in the short term. USD/JPY has increased by over 40 pips to 137.40, currently trading at 136.880, while USD/CAD is trading lower at 1.3642.
Meanwhile, the US dollar’s performance against other major currencies varied. The Euro and the Aussie increased a little over 10 pips to a closing price of 1.0605 and 1.2146 respectively. GBP/USD suffered minor losses at 1.2146.
China’s gradual re-opening sent WTI oil futures higher at $75.38 a barrel, but spot gold declined to $1,787.78 an ounce. Bitcoin just bounced back from a low of 16,372, recovering to 16,571.0.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 162 points to 32,757 (-0.49%), the S&P 500 lost 34 points to 3,817 (-0.91), and the Nasdaq 100 decreased 159 points to 11,084.
Federal Reserve announces a 50 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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Early this morning, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.50%, meeting market estimates. Later tonight, Mitrade expects the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to follow suit with a 50 bps rate hike.
Although Fed Chair Powell claimed rate hikes will continue until meeting the 2% inflation target, the US dollar extended its weak run. EUR/USD added more than 50 pips to 1.0682, and AUD/USD traded higher at 0.6863. The UK year-on-year inflation rate eased to 10.7%, against the projected 10.9%. USD/CAD had negligible losses, closing at 135.47, while USD/JPY slid to 135.47.
The stock market closed with modest losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average came in 142 points lower (-0.42%) at 33,966, the S&P 500 fell 24 points (-0.61%) at 3,995, and the Nasdaq 100 decreased 93 points (-0.79%) to 11,740.
Spot gold price closed lower at $1,807.37 an ounce, and just plunged to $1,793.93. US crude oil inventories moved against market projections by adding 10.2 million barrels. WTI oil futures increased to $77.28 a barrel. Bitcoin first soared to a month-high of 18,343.45, then plunged to 17,669.0.
US annual inflation is expected to drop to 7.3%EUR/USD 🔽
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US inflation data will be announced tonight, just before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate. Mitrade expects a slowing annual inflation rate at 7.3% and a monthly reading of 0.3%, rate hike expectations are also adjusted to 50 basis points. This includes central banks in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom.
The US stock market ended with modest gains. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 528 points (+1.58%) to 34,005, the S&P 500 rose 56 points (+1.43%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 143 points (+1.24%) to 11,706.
Meanwhile, the latest UK GDP results were higher than forecast, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase against a 1.4% projection. As a result, GBP/USD received a slight boost to 1.227. EUR/USD traded lower at 1.0535, and AUD/USD lost over 40 pips to 0.6745. Though USD/CAD declined to 1.3631, USD/JPY rose more than 110 pips to 137.66.
Spot gold closed at $1,781 an ounce, down $16. The US oil supply was disrupted by the Keystone oil pipeline outage, driving WTI oil futures higher at $73.17 a barrel. Bitcoin plunged below the $17,000 level but soon recovered, currently trading at 17,160.0.
Crude Oil - Short IdeaHi All,
My idea is short again on crude oil.
Risk/Reward ratio is good. This is my idea, just an idea.
Cheers,
James
Oil futures slid to a 1-year lowEUR/USD 🔼
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Recession fears from the imminent Fed rate hike led to a dip in oil prices, despite the Chinese government relaxing lockdown measures is likely to increase consumption. WTI oil futures briefly dipped to a 1-year low at $71.22 a barrel and reached a closing price of $71.46, the US has experienced one of the largest crude spills in the past decade, with more than 14,000 barrels spilled.
The US dollar extended its weakened run toward its peers, EUR/USD added over 50 pips to 1.0556, GBP/USD climbed to 1.2233, and AUD/USD closed higher at 0.6768. Meanwhile, USD/CAD fell 70 pips to 1.3595, as USD/JPY traded slightly higher at 136.65.
Spot gold increased $3 to $1,789.07 an ounce, and Bitcoin further rebounded to 17,250.0.
U.S. stocks ended their losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 29 points (+0.75%) to 3,963, breaking an eight-session losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183 points (+0.55%) to 33,781 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 140 points (+1.22%) to 11,637.
Canada ready to go neutral after December rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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In yesterday’s interest rate decision, the Bank of Canada increased rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%, meeting Mitrade's forecast. The central bank has extended the quantitative tightening cycle while acknowledging and will continue to assess the risks. USD/CAD closed at 1.3651 and is trading slightly higher at 1.3680.
The greenback has weakened against other major currencies. EUR/USD climbed to 1.0508, GBP/USD added over 70 pips to 1.2199, and AUD/USD rose to 0.6724. Despite a 0.2% decrease in Japanese GDP, USD/JPY dropped more than 40 pips to 136.6.
As of market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat at 33,597, the S&P 500 was down 7 points (-0.19%) to 3,933, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 52 points (-0.45%) to 11,497.
US crude oil inventories fell by over 5.2 million barrels against a forecast of -3.3 million barrels, but WTI oil futures slipped to $72.01 per barrel regardless. Spot gold surged $14 to $1,786.19 an ounce, and Bitcoin was last traded lower at 16,842.0.
Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates by 25 basis pointsEUR/USD 🔽
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The Reserve Bank of Australia has just increased its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.1%, aligning with market estimates. Meanwhile, Australia recorded 0.6% quarterly growth for its GDP, slightly lower than the projected 0.7%, and AUD/USD suffered minor losses at 0.6692.
As the Federal Reserve is yet to put an end to the tightening cycle, the greenback continues to strengthen against other major currencies. As a result, EUR/USD retreated to 1.0469, while GBP/USD slid more than 50 pips to 1.2137. USD/CAD increased over 60 pips to 1.3651, as Mitrade anticipated a rate hike of 50 basis points in Canada later tonight. USD/JPY rebounded from a low of 136.03 to 137.05.
Multiple attacks deep in Russian territory suggest Ukraine will not sit idly during winter. This is despite the extended Russian invasion putting pressure on the global oil supply. WTI oil futures decreased to $74.25 a barrel. Spot gold rose to $1,771.07 an ounce, and Bitcoin suffered minor oscillations, currently at 17,066.0.
In the stock market, the S&P 500 slipped 57 points (-1.44%) to 3,941, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350 points (-1.03%) to 33,596, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 237 points (-2.01%) to 11,549.
US Stocks fall amidst rate hike fearsEUR/USD 🔽
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Last night, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index had a monthly reading of 56.5, considerably higher than the market estimate of 53.3. Sustained inflation and strong labor data have led Mitrade to anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
As a result, the stock market closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 482 points to 33,947, the S&P 500 dropped 72 points to 3,998, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 207 points to 11,786 (-1.40%).
The dollar’s strength was also reflected against its peers. The EUR/USD pair was last traded lower at 1.0512, while the Pound and Aussie fell over 90 pips to 1.2188 and 0.6696 respectively. Later this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.10%. USD/CAD rose more than 120 pips to 1.3588, and USD/JPY added almost 250 pips to 136.74.
On the other hand, spot gold declined to $1,768.73 an ounce. Despite a tight crude oil supply, WTI oil futures decreased to $76.93 a barrel. Bitcoin plunged over $300 to 17,039.0.
Strong nonfarm data likely to extend Fed rate hikesEUR/USD 🔼
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The US Nonfarm Payrolls reading for November was 263,000, exceeding market expectations. Even though the Federal Reserve is already inclined to slow its rate hikes, this news will likely prolong the rate hike series.
As a result, the stock market closed slightly lower. As the S&P 500 fell 4 points (-0.12%) to 4,071, the Nasdaq 100 fell 47 points (-0.40%) to 11,994, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34 points (+0.10%) to 34,429.
EUR/USD rose 18 pips to 1.0538, GBP/USD reached 1.2287, and AUD/USD fell to 0.6789. Mitrade anticipated a 35 basis point rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, where New Zealand raised rates by 75 basis points in late November. NZD/USD rose to a three-month high at 0.6408.
USD/CAD climbed 36 pips to 1.3468, and USD/JPY slid over 100 pips to 134.29. Bitcoin just traded higher to 17,260.0.
Gold prices retreated $5 to $1,797.88 an ounce and just recovered to $1,806.29. Upon the European Union’s embargo, the G7 group also imposed a $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian crude oil, which Russia claimed it would not supply. WTI crude futures settled lower at $79.98 a barrel.
Wheat: Rough ride since March...Now what???Wheat has had a rough ride since the historic highs reached in March, and now is at levels that will test a "swing support" zone that has held several times in the past year.
In summarizing this past week's wheat action, Total Farm Marketing noted (www.totalfarmmarketing.com)
Wheat Prices Lower for the Week
December CBOT wheat futures shed 10-1/2 cents this week to close at 803-1/4
December KCBOT wheat futures shed 9-1/4 cents this week to close at 934-1/4
December MGEX wheat futures added 5-3/4 cents this week to close at 951-1/2
Informa raised its estimate for the 2023 World wheat crop my 4.5 million tons on higher production in China and India
Wheat export sales were only 5.7 million bushels last week which is the second smallest weekly total for that date since 1996
Managed money is currently holding its largest net-short position in 3 years
US winter wheat conditions improved somewhat after last week’s rains, but the Plains are still in an extreme drought and will need higher than normal winter precipitation to replenish soil moisture before crops come out of dormancy in the spring
Given the mostly negative news, the price action is understandable. But from here, what's the play?
Carley Garner from DeCarley Trading tweeted the following idea (and shared with her clients): madmimi.com
The link will take you to Carley's specific trade idea which...spoiler alert....plays on Wheat holding support and bouncing from here at some point.
I think her trade idea is well constructed and founded on sound reasoning. I actually initiated a small position in the call spread (without selling the otm put).
As always, my positioning and my article is NOT meant to be advice in any way! But it's good food for thought and discussion. Eager to hear reactions/thoughts.
US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop offEUR/USD 🔼
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Despite outperforming market estimates seven months in a row, investors predicted US nonfarm payrolls to indicate an economic slowdown to around 200,000 jobs added in November. This could sway the Federal Reserve to opt for a more moderate monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to weaken against its peers. EUR/USD rose to a five-month high of 1.0524, GBP/USD climbed and stabilized at 1.2253, and AUD/USD closed at 0.6809 with minor gains. USD/CAD traded higher at 1.3432, and USD/JPY lost over 270 pips to 1.3432.
Starting next week, the European Union will officially ban crude oil imports from Russia, causing WTI oil futures to move up slightly to $81.22 a barrel. Spot gold surged more than $30 to 1,802.99 an ounce.
There was a 0.56% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 34,395, a 3-point loss (-0.08%) in the S&P 500 to 4,076, and an 11-point gain (+0.10%) in the Nasdaq 100 to 12,041.