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Coffee Futures (KCK2022), H1 Potential for Bearish Dip!Type: Bearish Dip Resistance : 229.45 Pivot: 227.30 Support : 220.80 Preferred case: We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 227.30 in line 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 220.80 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might move towards the 1st resistance level of 229.45 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news
ICEUS:KCK2022Short
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 2639 Pivot: 2552 Support : 2500 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 2552 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce up to the 1st resistance level of 2639, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where price is near resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to drop towards the 1st support level of 2500 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Genesiv
HGK2022 (Copper Futures) | H1 Bullish PressureType : Bullish Pressure Resistance : 4.7730 Pivot: 4.7000 Support : 4.6415 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 4.7000 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 4.7730, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 4.6415 in line with a graphical swing low support. Fundamentals: No Major News
COMEX:HGK2022Long
by Genesiv
Decline of the US Dollar Means Commodities Will Continue To RoarThe pound sterling, the United Kingdom’s foreign currency instrument, was the global reserve currency in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. For decades, the US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, which became official in 1944 after a delegation from forty-four allied countries decided that the world’s currencies would no longer be linked to gold but pegged to the US dollar, which was linked to gold. The Bretton Woods Agreement established the authority of central banks to maintain fixed exchange rates between their foreign exchange instruments and the US dollar. In turn, the US would redeem US dollars for gold on demand. The redemption option ended in 1971 when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value. The dollar’s link to commodities Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role Expect higher base prices for commodities Long-term trends are very bullish Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach For seventy-eight years, since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been the king of the currencies. On December 27, 1945, the participating countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon abandoned the gold standard. On February 4, 2022, a handshake on a “no-limits” support agreement between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin may go down in history as the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the leading world reserve currency. The watershed event could have far-reaching consequences for markets across all asset classes. Commodities are global assets. The end of the dollar’s reign as the monarch of money will likely lift raw material prices in dollar terms in the coming years. The dollar’s link to commodities As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar has been the leading global pricing mechanism for most commodities. Over the past decades, a rising dollar often weighed on commodity prices as the essentials became more expensive in other currency terms. A weak dollar encouraged buying as prices fell in different foreign exchange instruments. While the US is the world’s leading economy, the population at around 333 million is only 4.2% of the total number of people on our planet. Therefore, the dollar’s link to commodities is financially based on the US position in the global financial markets and not on the supply and demand equations for the raw materials. If the dollar’s role in the world declines, its link to commodity prices will diminish. Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role King dollar is facing a challenge in 2022 as world economic and political events threaten its dominance. The US dollar faces at least three issues that continue to erode its purchasing power and role in the global economy: Inflation - The February US CPI and PPI data pointed to the highest inflation in over four decades. The March data will be even worse. The Fed began increasing short-term interest rates but remains far behind the inflationary curve. Rising inflation erodes the US dollar’s purchasing power. Geopolitical tensions - The war in Ukraine and China’s support for Russia has dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape. In the leadup to the expansionary move, Russia reduced its US dollar reserves, increasing holdings in euros and gold. Sanctions on Russia will likely cause China to follow the same course. China is the world’s second-leading economy, and Russia is a leading commodity-producing country. As China and Russia move away from using the US currency as a reserve currency, the dollar’s global role will decline. Geopolitical tensions have accelerated the descent. The decline of fiat currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies is a sign of the fall of fiat currencies. Cryptos derive value from bids and offers for the currencies in an open and transparent market that transcends borders. Fiat currencies derive value from the full faith and credit in the governments that issue the legal tender. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices signify the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world currencies, but it is a bit of a mirage as when all fiat currencies lose value, it is not apparent. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world reserve currencies, including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The most significant weighting, at 57.6%, is against the euro currency. The dollar may be moving higher against the basket of currencies, but that does not mean that all of them, including the dollar, are losing value. Expect higher base prices for commodities The decline of the dollar and all fiat currencies makes purchasing power drop and commodity prices rise. Therefore, a strong dollar index has not weighed on many commodity prices over the past year. The weekly chart shows that the dollar index has rallied, making higher lows and higher highs since early 2021. Over that period, most commodities have risen to multi-year and all-time highs. The strength of the dollar did nothing to restrain increasing raw material prices. Meanwhile, higher US interest rates increase the cost of carrying commodity inventories and boost the US dollar’s value against other currencies. The weekly chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, pushing long-term interest rates higher. The bottom line is that a rising dollar and increasing US interest rates have not stopped commodity prices from rallying since early 2021. Higher interest rates, rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil leading to supply chain issues, and sanctions that interfere with many raw materials supply and demand equations mean that production costs are rising. The base prices for raw materials are moving higher. Long-term trends are very bullish Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and since commodities are highly volatile assets, corrections can be brutal. However, the long-term charts in four leading commodities, copper, crude oil, corn, and gold, display the same bullish patterns. The quarterly chart of COMEX copper futures shows the bullish pattern over the past two decades. The highly political crude oil market displays the path of least resistance of the price is higher. US energy policy and geopolitical turmoil have only exacerbated the upward trajectory of the energy commodity since April 2020. Corn’s price path has been higher, making higher highs and higher lows for decades. Gold’s bull market dates back over two decades. Gold may be the best example of the decline in fiat currency values as it is a hybrid between a commodity and a foreign exchange instrument. Many other commodities display the same long-term trends. The recent strength in the US dollar means that commodity prices in other currencies have followed even more bullish price paths over the past year. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach The trend is always your best friend in markets. While short-term and medium-term traders follow technicals that depend on the market’s sentiment, long-term trends are a function of macro and microeconomic factors. The decline of fiat currency values continues to push commodity prices higher. Over the past decades, price corrections have been long-term buying opportunities in the commodities asset class. The economic and geopolitical landscapes point to a continuation of the trend. Buying on price weakness has offered optimal results. Even if the US dollar index continues to rise, it will not mean the currency is strong. The foreign exchange market is a mirage that only measures one fiat currency’s value against another. Commodity prices are the actual value indicator, and the long-term trends reveal that currencies are all losing purchasing power. We remain bullish on commodities. However, the higher the prices, the more vicious the corrections will become. Buying when they look the worse could be the best course of action over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:AW1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
OIL, THREE REASONS why did the price fall by 28%!WTI CRUDE OIL. About a week ago, oil almost has reached its all-time highs ( ATH ), but a few days later it fell by 28%. Why could this happen? Let's look at the situation in more detail! FIRSTLY, the White House promised to take oil sanctions off Venezuela in exchange for intensified negotiations between President Maduro and the country's opposition. Although the country positions itself as a friend of Moscow but the situation inside the country can make its own adjustments. To recall, the country is in deep crisis and its national currency has been devalued by 97%, but it has the largest crude oil reserves in the world! Would you miss such an opportunity? SECONDLY, despite Iranian air attacks on bases in Iraq, the Nuclear deal is expected to be signed next week. This would allow the U.S. to ease sanctions on Iran and allow the country to sell more Iranian oil . But of course we need to watch the official statements of the governments. THIRD reason, the British prime minister may visit Saudi Arabia next week to ask the country's leadership to increase the country's oil production. So far this is just a rumor, but could it come out of nowhere? These three reasons could have triggered the OIL price to fall! What do you think of the oil market? Share your thoughts in the comments! Friends, push the like button and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU!
TVC:USOIL
by Yuriy_Bishko
12
Palladium Fakeout!There is plenty of volatility in the markets due to current events happening around the world right now and Palladium is an example of this. An all-time high was created in May 2021 at $3017. Price then went into consolidation using the weekly 200 simple moving average as support. From there, we have seen a gradual increase in price, and by the end of February, price was just $7 shy of the all-time high. The second week of March saw the breakout we were all anticipating, but this was short-lived as price has now retreated back into the consolidation zone. This is the very reason why we wait for confirmation following a breakout before jumping into positions after a long period of consolidation. This is something we make our members aware of. Many traders and investors would have taken a position in Palladium as soon as it broke out but we understand that when price consolidates for a lengthy period of time, it could form a fake breakout. We will continue to stand aside until our confirmation is met and preserve our capital in the meantime so that we can use it for high-probability opportunities. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Attempts Record High!Gold had an attempt at the August 2020 all-time high at $2075 this month but has come short of even breaking through this level. Price was only $5 away from having a shot at creating a new record high, but the sellers came in strong to ensure that never happened. What does this mean for price now? Since there has been some short-term weakness, we want to identify areas of support that price may come to. This support could act as a springboard that helps to push price back towards this all-time high resistance level. Price is now trading below the $2000 round number, so the next level of support based on this timeframe is the previous all-time high from September 2011 at $1920. There is another level just before that, which is also classified as a strong level of support, and that is last year’s high at $1959. We will have to keep an eye on Gold because if there is a breakout, we could be in store for a long-term trend lasting several years. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn SoybeansSeasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn Soybeans Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Corn & Soybeans Futures Market. Corn and Soybeans and other grain markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern revolving around supply demand planting cycles. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of Corn and Soybeans. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by TradeTheIndex
Micro analysis on Crude Oil - to spike once morePreviously, in what was hoped to be a blow off top, there was a need for crude oil prices to close the gap soonest. Well, it did... thing is, it closed the gap, only to reopen with gusto. In a Gap and Close, we know it is a reversal. In a Gap and Run, we also know that the gap may or, more likely, not to be tested, and prices continue the trend strongly. In the crude oil scenario, it closed the gap (rectangular black box in chart) , only to reopen it with bullish looking candlesticks. The 4H MACD has not yet crossover bullishly, but suggest potential to. Crude oil is now more likely to spike up to the last high, and even exceed it, some time within the rest of this week. In correlation, yesterday we saw the S&P500 and NASDAQ post its worst day since Oct 2020, but it is suspected to have more downside momentum, given another reason to trigger a crude oil price spike. Now... IF, and when, prices should retrace, it should fall back to close that gap, and close it more permanently. By then, it should be below the 4H 55EMA. Heads up!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
War, Inflation, Oil & Natural GasSince the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started reversing since 2008, accelerated a bit in 2020 due to Covid and now has massively accelerated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This boom to a large extend relied on the financialization of the economy and the outsourcing of production on emerging markets, most of which don't align with western values and tend towards authoritarianism. This essentially lead to huge underinvestment in the production of commodities in the 'west' and heavy dependence on the 'east'. As the world is de-globalizing inflation has become a problem for everyone, but mostly for the developed world which now seems to be at odds with the developing world. Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the continuation, or I should say the real 'breakout' into a new world order. A reset was going to come, tensions were going to rise and things would eventually get at this stage. It's in the nature of human beings to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and as technology is progressing these mistakes tend to be more destructive and costly. Personally, I see no way how this situation gets resolved peaceful and doesn't result in the world being heavily divided in two camps, one US centric and one China centric. The next 10 years are probably going to be very turbulent, with all sorts of problems arising and the world going through some very dark times, yet I also think that after that period we going to come out of it stronger and potentially have another massive boom. It's currently all a matter of surviving over the next 10 years monetarily, physically and mentally... because we are about to go through a really rough period where inflation gets totally out of control, especially in nations that don't produce enough of their own food and energy. There are multiple reasons as to why inflation is going to ravage the world economy, but the key ones will be higher energy prices, broken supply chains (dysfunctional trade), freeze or reduction in production of certain goods in countries like Ukraine or Russia. What is going to exacerbate the problem but at this point is a necessary evil, is the insane amount of money printing in order to cover all sorts of deficits and provide people with support. In my opinion and I've talked about extensively before, is that raising interest rates in this environment will do nothing to stop inflation. What the public and private sector really needs to do is relax regulations and provide all sorts of help to producers, so that each country can get as much autonomy as it can get. Doing whatever it takes in order to produce as much energy and food, as it really is a matter of national security. A few weeks ago, it looked like inflation was going to come down. There wasn't much liquidity in the markets and all sorts of issues started showing up. Like I had mentioned in my previous ideas, inflation was due to several issues that had nothing to do with QE and ZIR, but due to issues on the supply side. It started looking like the Fed wouldn't need to or wouldn't even be able to raise rates more than 1.5-2%. However, then the conflict broke out and everything changed completely. Now the inflation caused by non-monetary issues has gotten completely out of hand, with no end in sight. Even though the issue is mainly on the supply side, it is a very tough one to fix and it is one that needs a lot of time to fix... while in the meantime intervention by money printing, wars and so on, will most likely make things a lot worse. So instead of the markets finding some sort of balance as low supply slowly crashes demand until production ramps up, we could see things get completely out of hand as the monetary systems breaks down along with production and distribution of goods, energy etc. In this analysis I won't get into any commodities other than Oil and Natural let's get into the charts and take everything step by step. Starting with oil, it is very clear that the market is extremely overbought, but at the same time it looks like it has also had a major breakout. Based on all metrics it is the most overbought it has ever been, yet at the same time its uptrend is very clean and strong. Since its December low the price of oil has doubled, and since the low on Feb 25th after the war broke out, it went up 40%. Currently it is just 20% away from making a new ATH, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 2x above its previous ATH in the next few months. Essentially we are seeing a reverse capitulation of what happened in April 2020 when oil went to -40$/barrel on the front contract. That ended the oil bear market as it forced a lot of producers to shut their oil wells and flushed out speculators. So high could oil go? Is there a limit? Although there is no limit to the upside due to the potential devaluation of fiat currencies, the truth is that higher prices are the cure for higher prices. Higher prices incentivize producers to start producing a lot more, and will probably make all the environmental concerns go out of the window, hence allowing all sorts of 'bad' for the environment energy sources to be used by everyone. What is actually even more likely is that such high oil prices will make the global economy collapse, which will in turn lead into a collapse in demand for oil. But again... How high can its price get? Based on the previous two largest Oil rallies, as well as based on technical analysis & fractals, the absolute top could be at 440-550$/barrel if things get extremely bad (ceiling), while 250-300$ is more likely to be either the top or a local top for quite some time. So far we have spoken about the upside, but there is also significant potential for downside here before the bull trend continues. I don't think it is very likely, yet it is possible. Volatility on energy could get wild based on how fast the output is increased, while demand drops. The current trend can't and won't last forever, as we can't leave so many gaps behind without one day retesting them. Definitely wouldn't rule out a 2008 style crash on oil at any moment, however for now 75$ seems to be the floor, the same way 60$ was the floor in Q3-Q4 2021. Getting back to 40$ is also possible, but this one would definitely requite a 2008 style crash. Therefore on the one hand the potential upside is about 85-335%, while the downside is 35-65%. Now it's time to talk about Natural Gas, as this is another really major component of the inflation equation, especially in Europe. Russia is the largest supplier of Natural Gas to Europe, which has been paying more and more for NatGas to Russia, and the situation is getting worse by the day. Someone could say Russia is holding Europe as a hostage, because Europe really really needs that gas as many people use it for heating, cooking and energy production. As its price was low for so long, people believed it would be cheap forever and started using it more and more. Unfortunately now it isn't easy to go back to using other sources of energy and Europe is really far way from only using clean/green forms of energy. Unless it moves quickly back to nuclear energy (re-activating reactors), coal and even getting natural gas from the US or somewhere else if possible, Europe is going to having blackouts for a long time. Not only will there be blackouts, but it will be pretty much impossible for anything to function properly. The situation in Europe is totally different from that of the US, whose NatGas prices are about 15 times lower than the ones in Europe. That's because the US is producing its own and doesn't rely on other countries for it. It is also producing substantial amounts of oil, while many countries around it (i.e. Canada) also produce a lot of oil. The high dependence on Russia is putting a lot of pressure on Europe, which might not be able to grow at all for many years to come. What is interesting is that this situation is making Europe come together under a common threat, but it also somewhat benefits the US as it gets closer to Europe. Although I don't know how long would it take for this to work and if it is actually possible, but if the US starts exporting LNG to Europe, this could push the price of NatGas in the US up, and that in Europe down. This could eventually become a great trade (long NatGas in the US and short in Europe), but it might take quite some time. Like with Oil, TTF could go up another 2-5x before it rolls over, while NG barely looks like it could reach its previous ATHs. The higher oil goes and the higher the costs in Europe, the more likely it is that NG will go higher. It has formed a decent base and it looks bullish, just nowhere near as strong as the other two.
TVC:USOILLong
by BitcoinMacro
Gold Bullish Momentum!Last week I posted on Gold and highlighted the fake breakout of the September 2011 high at $1920. Despite February’s candle forming a fake breakout of this level, we see strong moves above it again. Price could end up closing below $1920 by the end of the month, but the buyers do appear strong for now. When Gold trends, it usually lasts for months and years. Before a trend can begin, however, we need to see a breakout of the consolidation high, which is also the all-time high at $2075, and that was formed in August 2020. With a strong bullish candle in February and another one so far for March, the momentum could be building up to create new all-time highs. Gold is definitely on our watchlist. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
1
$USWS - A Cleaner Way To FrackAnother oil play. With a slightly greener way to frack in the spotlight. U.S. Well Services, LLC, provides high-pressure, hydraulic fracturing services in unconventional oil and natural gas basins. Both our conventional (diesel) and Clean Fleet® (electric) hydraulic fracturing fleets are among the most reliable and highest performing fleets in the industry, with the capability to meet the most demanding pressure and pump rate requirements in the industry. Considering the Russin oil embargo, this company should receive positive gains from companies needing equipment to frack heading forward. They also have a cleaner model that may be attractive to drillers. The company cut a new deal as recently as a week ago. "Olympus Energy, U.S. Well Services finalize electric frac contract" "“At Olympus, we actively seek out opportunities for improvement. The commitment to USWS’s Clean Fleet technology is a prime example of the team’s continuous efforts to reduce our environmental footprint, increase operational efficiency, and lessen any potential short-term impacts for the communities where we operate,” Mike Wahl, Olympus senior vice president and COO, said. “We’re proud to announce this partnership with USWS and to leverage their leading technology into our 2022 development program.” The fact that USWS has moved toward a cleaner model will be attractive to investors in these drilling and fracking companies.
ULong
by jaykenneyTRT
CORN Bullish Mid-Long Tern Outlook Hello traders: CORN has been moving up steadily since the late 2020, continue to impulse up and correct. We now see a larger, higher time frame descending correction that has been consolidate for about 5 months Latest development shows us a lower time frame double bottoms, and price has some LTF bullish price action. Be on the look out for bullish continuation price action to form, and look for completion of the correction for the buys. thank you
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by jojofang0901
35