Coffee_trading
COFFEE (Continuation) LONG - Update; Just a USD/Real Short ...... and nothing more.
Coffee remains a pure currency play on the USD/Real. - And with the Central Bank of Brazil hiking rates faster than any other central bank, this is mostly a one-way trade going into the seasonal peak.
Fundamentally, there is no evidence (0, zilch, nada) that there would be any supply issues at present - despite popular misconceptions to the contrary.
Coffee Future is getting closer to pick a direction...KC=F has been in a vicious bear market just like many agricultural commodities. There is a down trend line since May, 2011. It is getting close to the apex of the symmetrical triangle as well. If it breaks up, it will be pretty bullish and it may be the start of new bull market in Coffee.
NEXE Innovations Not much data on this company because it has only been publically traded for 3 days but this company will be huge. They make disposable coffee pods that only take 35 days to decompose! This is a huge play compared to current plastic coffee pods. Betting on the sustainability!
COFFEE - Turning the tide ?Coffee after a 3 week structure and battle seems to be making a break towards the Fib 0.382.
The higher time frames still point down.
The ADX indicator shows uptrend but no strength yet (it usually has a delay on that).
The COT of Sep 29 shows a lot of long orders closed (-3745) and more short open (+3065) with net long positions to 54931 compared to 61741 of the week before that.
So hudge funds expect more to the down.
We might have a turn of tide for coffee if this is not a false breakout, at least up to the Fib 0.382 area.
I will start engaging buy orders just after the decision level (green line) is broken to the upside by solid moves, maybe wait for the day to close.
Good luck traders.
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
The decline is not done yet. ExplainedCoffee reached our target at 120. However, there is still no signal the decline is done and we want to follow the trend. The support is broken and it makes me believe there is a big chance we can see a retest of important support/resistance near 104. So, if you still hold your shorts, consider adding trailing stops and let the good time roll.
COFFEE IS ON BUY ALL MONEY INTHE STORY OF THE COFFEE IS FACIANATING.
A HUGE VOLUME OF BUYERS ARE IN THE MARKET NO SIGNE OF DOWN EFFECT.
COFFEE FUTURES (KC1!): Entering Sell Zone
Coffee reached an important zone of confluence:
1. We have a strong structure resistance on the left
2. Completed harmonic abcd pattern
3. Fib.extension and retracement confluence.
4. Bearish sentiment from the beginning of the year
The price may drop at least to 114.0 level.
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Robusta Coffee Futures on ICE Exchange SHORT SWING TRADE IDEAShort bias included with the lovely world of seasonality. Enjoy the trade guys and gals. This is definitely a 2-4 month trade. Put on a spread for minor span margin costs. May need to have the proper broker for this.
Coffe fundamental analysis-The strong increase in coffee prices is due to the strengthening of BRL and the fear of frost
-The Brazilian hurricane delayed harvest, which could lead to a deterioration in crop quality
-Coffee consumption has risen to historic highs, but it is not yet visible at coffee bars
-Farmers receive only 10% of the final consumer price, so they don't get too much from growing demand
-In contrast, large coffee makers such as Nestle or Starbucks generate huge profits
-This year, the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) reduced the surplus by 7.5% to 3.4 million bags.
-From the market situation we can see that long positions increased while short positions decreased
-Coffe stocks in American ports fell, a similar situation in 2013 followed by a strong coffee exchange rally
-Farmers receive only 10% of the wholesale price of coffee . Current low prices may cause some South American farmers to collapse. In the long run, this can support a rise in coffee prices.
-After several months of coffee reserves in American ports, this may remind us of the situation in 2013 and 2014.
-I set my first tp at 120, second at 125, i show only my second tp at my chart, but I think you can set to 150 or more.
High Probability Setup on Coffee with Volume ProfilePlease note Swing or Trend trading on Futures product may require maintaining position beyond Futures Contract expiration.
www.latimes.com
An older articles but relevant as there are 1-2 years price lag due to the natural of supply and demand of coffee global supply chain.
thecoffee.blog
Coffee reaches accumulation levelsCoffee is trading near multi year horizontal support of 95 cents. While excessive supply and falling Brazilian real crushed the prices, there is ray of hope ahead. With price almost reaching 95 level which seems safe accumulation level, there can be gains in coming months. Farmers in Brazil are reducing coffee cultivation area will lead reduction in inventories in coming months. Price hovering near critical long term support risk to reward is very low for investing in coffee for some months.
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SELL Coffee (Short Setup)Wait for confirmation of resistance from the upper trend line before the price heads down again.
This is supported by the high RSI level.
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Correction for Coffee FuturesAfter such a dramatic rise in a down trend the price is due for a correction downwards.
Also the RSI was very high as well so that supports this prediction.
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