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Coffee

Arabica Coffee (KC) Breaks Downtrend Since Mid OctoberKC put in its strongest weekly performance in about a month, reinforcing the line in the sand at the 180 horizontal support zone as seen in the attached chart. The 180 level also coincides with the uptrend support line connecting the low earlier in the week with the January 2014 low. Based on the renewed upward momentum these last few days, and the apparent break of the downtrend from mid October, it would appear that the uptrend line break (which appeared last week if you imagine an uptrend support line connecting the same January 2014 low with the July and September 2014 lows) gave a false sell signal alert. The daily Stochastics and RSI are now trending up strongly from oversold levels, while the daily MACD is beginning to positively crossover. Some profittaking can be expected early next week, but the general trend in the next few weeks should be up, with a target next week around 205-206, followed by the next target at the October high. Feel free to visit stks.co for yesterday's technical analysis on $KC_F, $VIX, $ES_F, $NQ_F, $EURUSD, $DX_F, $SB_F, $AUDUSD, $CT_F, $EURCHF, $GBPUSD, $SI_F Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
KLong
by TradablePatterns
Bullish Case for CoffeeMaximum potential output from the 2015 coffee crop at Brazilian cooperative Cocatrel is already 30% below production in 2013, when 1.5M bags were harvested, and outlook is "worsening every day" without rain, technical director Jorge Luis Piedade Nogueira told Reuters on Tuesday. In August, Cocatrel said drought in the first quarter of the year would have an extended impact and reduce the 2015 crop's potential by 15% to 20%t from 2013 output. “With no significant rainfall in September, an alarming situation with substantial losses for 2015 is projected,” Brazil’s National Coffee Council. Global coffee production could fall short of demand in the season that began Oct. 1 by the largest amount since the crop year ended in 2006, the International Coffee Organization said in July. “Brazil is on target to potentially have two deficit years,” said Brian Kurtzer, senior portfolio manager at Durham, N.C.-based Verity Asset Management, which manages about $410 million. “The path of least resistance is still on the upside.” New Harvard School of Public Health study identified six new genetic variants associated with habitual coffee drinking. Since 1990, Asia has experienced the most dynamic growth in coffee consumption in the world, growing by an average rate of 4% per annum.
JLong
by Ro_Patel
Bullish Case of CoffeeMaximum potential output from the 2015 coffee crop at Brazilian cooperative Cocatrel is already 30% below production in 2013, when 1.5M bags were harvested, and outlook is "worsening every day" without rain, technical director Jorge Luis Piedade Nogueira told Reuters on Tuesday. In August, Cocatrel said drought in the first quarter of the year would have an extended impact and reduce the 2015 crop's potential by 15% to 20%t from 2013 output. “With no significant rainfall in September, an alarming situation with substantial losses for 2015 is projected,” Brazil’s National Coffee Council. Global coffee production could fall short of demand in the season that began Oct. 1 by the largest amount since the crop year ended in 2006, the International Coffee Organization said in July. “Brazil is on target to potentially have two deficit years,” said Brian Kurtzer, senior portfolio manager at Durham, N.C.-based Verity Asset Management, which manages about $410 million. “The path of least resistance is still on the upside.” New Harvard School of Public Health study identified six new genetic variants associated with habitual coffee drinking. Since 1990, Asia has experienced the most dynamic growth in coffee consumption in the world, growing by an average rate of 4% per annum. Coffee consumption insensitive economic events.
JLong
by Ro_Patel
Long SBUX For A Quick GainOutside of being one of the most well managed companies on the market , technicals seem to indicate a short-term bump up is pending. Price action seems to indicate fairly strong support at this point. Looking four a move to around the $78 region before encountering some resistance. On the downside support seems to be strong at the $74 region. Volume seems to have found it's footing, and accumulation is on the rise. MACD Histogram is clearly indicating a bullish run, and the fast line is making a bullish cross.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by stephen.punwasi
Starbucks Mirroring 2013 Upmove, Second Wave Aiming for $97Price has been trading steadily within a long term bullish Uptrend Channel, since Jan 2011 up till today (24 July 2014) Price has recently trace from High of around $81.00 (26 Nov 2013) and found support along the Uptrend Channel Line. We also note a minor double bottom (31 Jan 204 - 16 May 2014) within the Channel. This indicates a reversal of the bearish retracement move, for a continuation of the general uptrend We note a similar double bottom (06 Aug 2012 - 22 Oct 2012) within a trend channel, which leads to price reaching around $81.00 (06 Nov 2013). We project that the price action now will attempt to proportionately replicate this upward movement once more, leading to a breakout. For price to breakout, it must successfully trade and sustain above the resistance band between $81.60 to $80.00 Theoretical Price Projection: $97.36 ( Proportional Projection of Retracement/ Up move) Time Span: Price should complete the up move by 30 Jan 2015 Price will also most likely respect and trade within the Uptrend Channel line, until a reversal pattern forms. Risk: There is a risk of bull trap, whereby price breaks slightly above the Resistance Band, trade back below 80.00 to form a Double Top Reversal pattern to reverse the uptrend. Like It, Share It, Follow It~
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by BreakOutArtist
4
Which reversal pattern will Prevail ??Looking at JO the recent strength in looks super bullish. Eventhough im proposing the alternate idea of a double top, I still think the bullish trend is intact. However, i can't help but to think about the downside risk. I believe coffee needs to consolidate, either though price ( a sell off) or through time (sideways movement.) I don't feel comfortable going either long or short. The risk- reward does not look appealing. Even if we retrace to the 0.618 level, the chart would still be bullish long-term and it would present a better risk to reward ratio. Although a breakout entry above 42.00 does look like an aggressive and tempting opportunity. I'm staying away from this trade. There are better opportunities out there. Just interesting to ponder which way its gonna play??
J
by aravindran1
1