Need a frost to get this market moving.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
Coffee
COT signal directional change for coffee?Looking to trade coffee long with stops under previous cycle low for conservative risk. Target upper TL , allow for fluctuations of price with an accommodative stop management in order to achieve the desired target.
COFFE APROACHING BUY LEVEL (AGAIN)Rising trend line and even number support approaching ($19). Check related idea for coffee trade that worked out in 11/16.
STARBUCKS TEXTBOOK FLAG FORMING BIG BULL MOVE COMINGMy plan is to enter around 53.00 with a relative tight stop below the 51.00 low.
So the risk is really manageable, but the potential on this stock is very tasty, there is a potential for a 20% rise.
Before entering i will be looking at smaller timeframes to ensure that bulls are coming in, and stabilzing the price.
Fundamentally i have read several positive reports and bank analysis of starbucks with several banks expecting the stock to outperform toward the 64.00 level. So i think its worth to have it in the portfolio.
Thanks for reading, please make your own analysis, this is just my view and it might as well fall and take out the stop. Please use proper risk management.
Blessings to you all.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) – coffee giant low on energy?We are currently in a long sideways phase that has been exited only briefly in a little over a year. Within the price range of approx. $53.00 – $63.00, the value is oscillating in sometimes larger, sometimes smaller movements. Since the beginning of December, a clearer downward trend has now formed. The value of the stock is showing rising volume in the downward movements, and an unattractive chart development as well as falling volume in the corrections. The significance of the downward trend is also strengthened in comparison with the large indexes (SP500/Dow30/NASDAQ100). Since the election of Mr. Trump, these have been able to record new highs, while the Starbucks stock is having to fight back against a rally.
Since there is still plenty of elbow room down to the lower edge of the sideways range, a trade in the direction of the downward trend seems to be the most lucrative. If a scenario such as the one in image 2 occurs, the subordinate trend could be used for an entry. The first target would be in the region around $54.00. A further target is also the area around $53.00. This is where the lower edge of the sideways range is located, which is why here at the latest, it would be advisable to take any profit.
If the trend does not continue and if the last highs at $59.00 are sustainably broken, the short scenario would have to be put aside. In this case, a renewed observation of the stock would be advisable.
KC1! KC COFFEE probable SHORTCoffee is already almost hitting the trendline formed on the Daily chart.
It broke the 4-hourly trendline some days ago so a bit of extra caution is needed; however, the Risk-Reward-Ratio looks quite promising.
Watch for the opening of the next 4H chart!
KC1! COFFEE probable rebound SHORTCoffee is already almost hitting the trendline formed on the Daily chart.
It broke the 4-hourly trendline some days ago so a bit of extra caution is needed; however, the Risk-Reward-Ratio looks quite promising.
Watch for the opening of the next 4H chart!
Java Swing Idea with all this unnatural weather it only makes sense to go long on COFFEE!!!! Grab your espresso and lets rock!
Second Cup Stocks 2014-PresentA visualization of Second Cup coffee shop chain stocks since 2014, when Alix Box took over as CEO. Part of business article on the company written by a Master of Journalism student.
$52.50-(A key support level for Starbucks).As I noted in the above chart, closing below the 100 WMA again is a troubling sign for the bulls.
I am watching the 52.50 level. If that level goes, the 200 WMA is up next at ~47.50.
The last time Starbucks fell below the 200 WMA was in 2007. It fell another 70% bottoming out around $4. Granted, that period was an extreme event and the company is more mature and in a better position today. I am in now implying it will fall 70% Just pointing out long it has been since the last move under the 200 WMA.
Now, a look toward some data.
Same store sales is slowing. See image below.
assets.bwbx.io
Jennifer Bartashus, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence notes-
“Starbucks is really starting to hit the saturation point in the U.S.,” she said. “The question with that is how are they going to continue to grow same-store sales.”
To achieve growth, it will mean growing same store sales at a better rate and pushing into new markets.
Per Bloomberg again-
"Starbucks has been trying to improve its food in the U.S. to lure more customers, especially beyond morning hours. This year, the company is adding fancier items to its menu, including Sous Vide Egg Bites and a gluten-free breakfast sandwich. To attract the on-the-go crowd, Starbucks also is expanding its snack-based meals called Bistro Boxes."
In other words, they are expanding to other categories besides coffee(line extension). They are hoping to gain a bigger share of the customer's wallet while they are in the store. Will it work or could those resources better be used elsewhere? The jury is still out.
I have no position in this stock but will be watching the levels noted on the chart closely.
Let me know what you think. Agree/disagree? Would love to hear your thoughts.
2nd try, first chart was off:)
$52.50-(A key level of support for Starbucks).As I noted in the above chart, closing below the 100 WMA again is a troubling sign for the bulls.
I am watching the 52.50 level. If that level goes, the 200 WMA is up next at ~47.50.
The last time Starbucks fell below the 200 WMA was in 2007. It fell another 70% bottoming out around $4. Granted, that period was an extreme event and the company is more mature and in a better position today. I am in now implying it will fall 70% Just pointing out long it has been since the last move under the 200 WMA.
Now, a look toward some data.
Same store sales is slowing. See image below.
assets.bwbx.io
Jennifer Bartashus, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence notes-
“Starbucks is really starting to hit the saturation point in the U.S.,” she said. “The question with that is how are they going to continue to grow same-store sales.”
To achieve growth, it will mean growing same store sales at a better rate and pushing into new markets.
Per Bloomberg again-
"Starbucks has been trying to improve its food in the U.S. to lure more customers, especially beyond morning hours. This year, the company is adding fancier items to its menu, including Sous Vide Egg Bites and a gluten-free breakfast sandwich. To attract the on-the-go crowd, Starbucks also is expanding its snack-based meals called Bistro Boxes."
In other words, they are expanding to other categories besides coffee(line extension). They are hoping to gain a bigger share of the customer's wallet while they are in the store. Will it work or could those resources better be used elsewhere? The jury is still out.
I have no position in this stock but will be watching the levels noted on the chart closely.
Let me know what you think. Agree/disagree? Would love to hear your thoughts.
COFFEE TRIGGERS LONG SIGNALLong signal triggered with entry into long zone. Three to four month time horizon on this trade. Will add with any continued weakness.
FIRST TARGET: $22.40
SECOND TARGET: $24.50
Coffee still LONGCoffee moving gracefully upwards both on H4 and D1 does not show signs of trend change at the moment.
Did this analysis on Thursday and forgot it there without entering the trade... well done!
KC1! @ daily @ nearest commodity (of 32) to ATH back on trackThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
KC1! @ daily @ nearest (of 32 commodities) to it`s all-time highThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Possible Long Coffee Play - Sip some JOA long play based on divergence only, both RSI and MACD. Seasonal coffee chart shows a probable up thrust in January. GL
Coffe could be found it's multi year higher low?Coffe could be found it's multi year higher low? Will see...
At the moment it could be a leading diagonal in wave 1 (primary) or A and a zig-zag in wave 2 or B... or it's just 2/A in wave 2 or B/A ...
(Didin't posted my original idea here (3 month ago.... wave 5, intermediate level), but my target was $26 in JO)
Coffee -- trying to catch )This time, after a good sell, technical side is showing some signals for long opportunity.
Position is open from 154,6-155,4 levels; stop below lows (154).
Will closely watch for a next couple of days to get confirmation or denial.
COFFEE NEARING BUY POINTTarget the $20-20.50 buy zone with prior pivot tops, pivot lows and rising daily trendline providing support. Definitely in oversold territory down here.
First Target would be $22.50
Well, we are still in an uptrend, technically speaking After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies in my opinion.
$SBUX Getting Interesting$SBUX may be coming back into play. With a better than expected quarter (in my opinion) and really putting the focus on Chinas growth, we may have a breakout.
CMF is still in an uptrend since September
MACD is looking like we may have a shallow cross
RSI has ticked back up
Support at the $52.50 mark was held and bounced.
All these together make it go higher on the watchlist. Keep your eye on this one.