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⤴️⤴️EURUSD BULLISH MOMENTUM Fullbacks)🚀🚀🚀The dollar edger higher on Friday but is set to end 2023 with its first yearly loss since 2020 against the euro and a basket of currencies, on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next year as inflation moderates. Questions for 2024 will be when the Fed begins cuts, and whether the first rate reduction is made to avoid over-tightening as inflation drops, or due to slowing U.S. economic growth. With markets already pricing in aggressive cuts, debate is also focused on how much further the dollar is likely to fall. “We’ve already weakened quite a bit in anticipation of a Fed cut cycle to come,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. The dollar's decline accelerated after the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024 at its December policy meeting. Markets are pricing in even more aggressive cuts, with the first reduction seen likely in March and 158 basis points in cuts expected by year-end. (FEDWATCH) The Fed’s tone contrasted with other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which maintained they will hold rates higher for longer. But “I do think they will capitulate. European growth is just struggling too much and inflation’s coming down relatively fast … same in the U.K. in many ways,” said Bechtel. “If all three central banks are cutting, it's going to be very hard for the dollar to weaken significantly." Against a basket of currencies, the greenback on Friday gained 0.13% to 101.32 DXY , rising from a five-month trough of 100.61 reached on Thursday. It is on track to lose 2.10% this year and is down 4.62% this quarter, the worst performance in a year. The euro EURUSD dipped 0.19% to $1.1040, hovering just below a five-month peak of $1.11395 reached on Thursday. It is heading for a 3.04% gain for the year, its first positive year since 2020. "Markets are looking for a cut earlier in the U.S. and are less certain that the European Central Bank will cut as quickly, so that's why the dollar is very soft," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. "We also have positive risk appetite which is another negative for the dollar. Going into 2024, the soft dollar will be a theme towards the March central bank meetings," Christensen added. Policymakers at the ECB and the BoE did not signal any imminent rate cuts at their policy meetings this month, but traders are pricing in 162 bps of cuts by the ECB next year, with the probability of two cuts by April. The BoE is also expected to cut rates by 148 bps in 2024. "While it feels like the market might have moved too far too fast, the facts are that growth is non-existent in Europe, slowing in the U.S., and inflation is falling globally," said CJ Cowan, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors. "The ECB is famously slow to change policy course so almost two cuts priced by April looks aggressive, even if it might be the right thing to do." Sterling GBPUSD rose 0.08% to $1.2745 and was on track for a 5.39%
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
NVDA: Beware of these Support / Resistance Levels (H & D charts)NVDA shares are losing momentum after a powerful upward reaction this morning. It seems that as it approaches its resistance area, it is becoming difficult for NVDA to maintain its upward trajectory. We had a good reaction near the Fibonacci retracements, which, as we warned in our last public study, was our main area of support. Now the price is trying to recover, but there are still some challenges ahead. The link to our previous analysis is below this post, as usual. It's interesting to note that despite losing momentum, the price could still seek out the $487.61 region, a secondary resistance and previous top that can be seen on the hourly chart: At the moment, there is no clear sign of a bearish reversal, but we should remain vigilant as the price is finding it difficult to break through the resistance of its Ascending Channel, as evidenced by the purple lines. A correction down to the 21 EMA is plausible, but if the price loses this support, then we could see NVDA near the support of its channel again. So, in the short term, it's all about the Ascending Channel, and in which direction there will be a breakout, as well as the 21 EMA. In the medium term, we should focus on the Fibonacci retracements, and the resistance at $487. I must admit that I would like to see the price at $487 again, since that point has been a personal target for me since the first buy signal at $469: Ignition Bar + above the support of the ascending channel + breaking a pivot point + breaking the 21 ema on the 1h chart = Clear buy signal (to me, at least). However, depending on how the price reacts today, maybe the bullish thesis will be thwarted. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this idea, and follow me for more analysis like this. All the best, Nathan,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
🚀⤴️⤴️GOLD FULLBACK 2100)⏫️hello trader’s what do you think about gold) gold fullbacks support levels 2047) Gold if breakoutdown and this weekend looks better news CPI trader’s 2047) support levels and gold mowing fullback 2100)resistance levels)my position 2047) lounges 2100) key levels 2080 key levels 2090 key levels 2100 Gold finished the year at $2,063 an ounce, climbing more than 13% in 2023 for its first annual gain in three years, and logging a new record high within the year mostly supported by expectations that the major central banks will start cutting interest rates early next year. After implementing an aggressive rate-hiking cycle that started in early 2022, the US Federal Reserve is now expected to begin easing as soon as next March amid signs that inflation in the US is cooling. Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a prolonged war in Gaza spurred safe-haven demand for gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
💥 USD JPY bearish moving) 4H )Hello trader’s what do you think about usdjpy)? Usdjpy bearish moving retest rsl levels same Bak sell zone 138.570 The US dollar declined against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a gain versus the euro, ahead of the release of the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State survey for December, the first manufacturing reading for the month, at 8:30 am ET. November industrial production data are set to be released at 9:15 am ET, followed by S&P Global's flash estimates of manufacturing and services conditions for December at 9:45 am ET. With the Fed's pre-meeting "quiet period" now lifted, appearances by officials should pick up in the coming week before the holidays begin. A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Friday: USDEUR fell to 1.0966 from 1.0992 at the Thursday US close but was above a 1.0928 level at the same time Thursday morning. The European Central Bank held its target rate steady Thursday, as expected, and said that rates will need to remain elevated "as long as is necessary," according to ECB President Christine Lagarde. There was no discussion of rate cuts at the meeting, Lagarde said. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for Jan. 25. The Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors continued to contract in December, a preliminary purchasing managers' index released earlier Friday showed. GBPUSD rose to 1.2774 from 1.2766 at the Thursday US close and 1.2664 at the same time Thursday morning. UK manufacturing PMI showed continued contraction in December, but the services reading moved further above the breakeven point to signal faster expansion, preliminary data released earlier Friday showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Feb. 1 after the BoE maintained its target rate Thursday and said rates will need to remain elevated for some time. USDJPY fell to 141.6480 from 141.8862 at the Thursday US close but was above a level of 141.5921 at the same time Thursday morning. Preliminary Japanese manufacturing PMI for December showed further contraction while the services sector expanded at a faster rate than in the previous month, data released overnight showed. The next Bank of Japan policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 18-19, with the statement released in US time Monday evening. USDCAD fell to 1.3381 from 1.3406 at the Thursday US close and 1.3448 at the same time Thursday morning. Canada housing starts data for November are scheduled for release at 8:15 am ET, followed by wholesale sales data for October at 8:30 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is set for Jan. 24. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak at 12:40 pm ET.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
⬆️ EURGBP) BULLISH) analysis) ⬆️⬆️hello trader’s what do you think about Eurgbp)? The pound rose slightly on Friday as the dollar slipped while investors waited for data on the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. Sterling GBPUSD was up 0.36% at $1.2736 and was set for a weekly gain of 0.45%. The euro EURUSD was down 0.26% against the pound at 86.55 pence. The pound has risen for five of the last six weeks against the dollar as investors have ramped up bets that the Fed will cut interest rates sharply next year after consumer price index inflation slowed to 3.1% in November. The November personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's favoured measure of price pressures, is due at 1330 GMT on Friday. Data on Friday showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter of the year. Yet FX investors may have been paying more attention to separate figures that showed British retail sales jumped 1.3% in November, more than expected. "Today’s release provided some festive cheer for retailers," said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics. "But with higher interest rates still percolating throughout the economy, we doubt that there will be a continued rise in sales volumes early next year." In their 2024 outlooks, many strategists tipped the pound for a solid year on the basis the Bank of England would not be able to cut interest rates as much as the Fed or European Central Bank, making British bond yields more attractive. That idea was called into question earlier this week when data showed that UK inflation slowed to 3.9% in November, more than expected, from 4.6% in October. Investors think the BoE is likely to cut rates by 140 basis points next year, according to pricing in derivatives markets, up from about 120 bps at the start of the week. The dollar index DXY , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was last down 0.22% on Friday at 101.55.
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2