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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Central Bank Week Results, OECD Forecasts and Pound GrowthFollowing the Fed, the Banks of Japan, Switzerland and England announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policies. They keep interest rate steady. Accordingly, there were no large movements in the pound, yen and franc parities. Although it is worth noting some strengthening of the yen following the Bank of Japan decision. Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) noted that the Central Bank supports the expansion of monetary incentives. So the global trend towards easing monetary policies may continue. Based on the results, our trading recommendations are unchanged. We will continue to sell the dollar primarily against the yen and the British pound. We will also sell the euro against the yen. As for the pound, its fate will depend entirely on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. We are still looking for a positive outcome, therefore, recommend buying the British pound. Moreover, yesterday the pound against the dollar rose to the highest levels since July 2019. This happened after the comments of the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appeared that the Brexit deal could well be concluded before October 31. in the light Gold purchases continue to be relevant. Concern among investors yesterday updated OECD forecasts on the world economic growth rates were added. The organization lowered its estimates to 2.9% from 3.2%. OECD also warned that exit without a deal would provoke a recession in the UK economy. Speaking of the UK economy. Retail sales came out worse than expected -0.2% m/m (forecast was 0%). But once again we emphasize that the fate of the pound is now decided not by economic data, but by Brexit. Yesterday, data on the real estate market in the United States was published and again the data significantly exceeded experts' forecasts: sales of existing homes in August increased by + 1.3% m/m (forecast was -0.7%).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Fed's decision and dollar reaction, the CB of Japan and EnglandFed Decision: Interest rates cut by 25 basis points after FOMC meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the rate to 0,25%. FOMC does not have a fixed position: some members believe in further reduction, other members voted against any further reduction at this meeting. So could observe the lack of dollar sales. Different positions are understandable. In the last couple of weeks, the US economy has shown good outcome, so the Fed may well take a break in easing cycle. As for the USA. Statistics on the real estate market in the United States were published yesterday. The figures came out more than good. So, the start of construction indicator increased by 12.3% m/m (forecasts + 5%), and building permits in August grew by 7.7% m/m (analysts expected an average decrease of 1.3%). In general, talking about a downtrend in the dollar is premature, and even a correction in the dollar value is in question. However, today we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar. Today, the Bank of Japan has traditionally left monetary policy parameters unchanged. The Bank of Switzerland is also expected to leave the rate unchanged. However, both of these Central Banks are pursuing an ultra-soft monetary policy, there is simply nowhere to lower rates. The Bank of Japan has not yet held a press conference following the meeting when we were completing news background. If there are no surprises, then our position is to buy the Japanese yen today. First of all, against the dollar and the euro. The pound was under pressure yesterday. This was due to both statements by the EU that the risk of exit without a deal and macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer inflation came out below per cent. Weak inflation on the eve of the Bank of England decision announcement on the parameters of monetary policy is a sign for pound sellers activation. Total up to the verdict announcement we prefer to stay away from pound positions. Moreover, before that, data on retail sales in the UK will be published. Since the Bank of England will announce the decision today, we will present our adjusted position on the pound tomorrow. In the end, the pound is not the only instrument for trading. Gold purchases from local lows continue to be relevant. As well as oil sales from local highs. The situation with Saudi Arabia seems to have stabilized and markets generally calmed down.
by Trade24Fx
Central Banks Week Ahead: Our Expectations and Trading PlansECB president, Mario Draghi unveiled a package of measures to ease monetary policy: the rate was reduced, and new asset purchases were announced. The euro initially reacted “classically” - with a decline, but then on Thursday evening and Friday was growing steadily. A similar thing was observed last week with the Turkish lira, which sharply strengthened after the Central Bank of Turkey reduced its rate by 375 (!) Basis points. This reaction can be explained by the fact that now the absence of a recession in the future is more important for markets than a drop in profitability. So, we cannot wait to watch the dollar reaction to the Fed decision on Wednesday. The rate is likely to be lowered, but how the dollar will react is unclear. Of course, we will sell it, but keep in mind the variant of an illogical reaction. What we recommend to do in the future, we believe the dollar is doomed to decline. Reasons for its sales are understandable. The budget deficit that exceeded $ 1 trillion is enough to build apocalyptic theories and sell the dollar. This week will be rich in events related to the Central Banks. After Wednesday and the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Switzerland, and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday. Given the global trend towards easing monetary policy, surprises are likely from all the central banks mentioned above. So you need to be prepared for it. Therefore gold purchases continue to be a good trading idea. And this week we will continue to buy the asset on the intraday basis. Although Mario Draghi stated that the risks of a recession in Europe are insignificant, economic data suggest the opposite, as well as what the ECB does. So we will continue to sell euros this week. The general slowdown in the global economy is definitely against developing countries and markets. Russia seems to be particularly vulnerable in this regard, so we recommend selling the ruble. The pound continues to grow amid confidence in the markets that there will be no “hard” Brexit. Therefore continue to recommend its purchase.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Repositioning FX and Trump's new warYesterday, repositioning was continuing in the foreign exchange market. Traders tried to incorporate the change in the vector of the Fed’s monetary policy into the dollar price. As a result, today the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is 100%. At the same time, 65% of traders are waiting for a decline of 0.25%, and 35% - by 0.5%. Note that a month ago, the probability of a rate cut in July was estimated by markets at 20%. Since vector changing of US monetary policy is a tectonic thing not only for the US economy but also for the world economy and the foreign exchange market as well, it is naive to believe that the markets will fully take this into account in one day. So we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales. Moreover, Trump seems to be going to redirect his efforts from escalating the trade war to a currency war. A strong dollar reduces to zero his protectionist efforts. So the attack on the dollar seems quite logical. And even if we do not see active opposition on the currency front, such rumors will have a negative impact on the dollar, because everyone wants to be the first to sell the dollar before it drops. The Bank of England, as well as the Bank of Japan, decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged yesterday. So, the Japanese yen and the pound moved in line with the basic trends of the foreign exchange market, without showing any particular individuality. About the UK. Boris Johnson won the vote for the fourth time and received 157 votes and left only 3 positions on the list of candidates. The end of the week is likely to be hectic. The markets have not taken into account the Fed's decision, and data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US, as well as retail sales in Canada, may well trigger a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and even the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Tough week for foreign exchange market: the Fed, the BoJ & BoELast week turned out to be not that difficult. For instance, the data on industrial production was better than expected, also the data on retail sales appeared better as well, but still not that good. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)came out below forecasts, but the difference was minimal, and the dollar strengthened fairly well in the foreign exchange market on Friday. The dollar growth has been observed due to the Fed's possible future actions. This week the US CB is announcing the monetary policy decision. On the one hand, the weak data could convince the Fed to reduce the rate but on the other hand, Friday's data seems to have more influence in taking the decision. The Bank of Russia lowered the rate on Friday. Due to the economic situation in RF as well as the current decline in oil prices, we continue to recommend sales of the Russian ruble. The data on industrial production turned out to be lower than expected (5.0%, with a forecast of 5.4%). However, the weak data was offset by exceeding retail sales forecasts. The companies are concerned with the consequences of the trade war. Therefore, more than 500 companies and industry trade associations wrote to the White House urging Trump to remove levies on China and end the ongoing trade war. This week we are waiting for announcing the results of the FOMC meeting, BoJ and BoE decisions on monetary policy parameters, data on inflation statistics ( Eurozone, the UK, and Canada ) as well as data on retail sales from the UK and Canada. Our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. We will look for points for buying GBPUSD with small stops.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The $BTC Moon Mission has completed Base of Operations. A further developed theory of previous publication. I'm sorry bears, chances are you have found yourselves in disbelief. Follow the trend, don't be the guy that short's this thing all the way through 100k. We haven't even started, Bitcoin's mission to Namek is the final story of a world economy ready to collapse and if you play your cards right, collect the rubble at the end of it all and rebuild a world desperately in need of a generational transfer of wealth. The Climate is changing, the banks are frankly crediting, citizens are over-borrowed on their homes and investment properties and Amazon needs to be broken up. NASA is building a moon base like come on the writing is on the wall... I dream of a day money is simply a tool to re-shape and help envision a better world for the kids that will be at war with the selfish decisions of their grandparents. Did I mention f**k Exxon Mobil? F**k Exxon Mobil.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by CryptoHicks
USDCHF - Sell AreaHi! The blue box criteria: 1. Monthly bearish candlestick patterns - February and March has ended up with Shooting Stars candlestick pattern. It is a bearish pattern and they got rejections from the trendline and from the big round number 1.0000. 2. Big round number 1.0000 should act as a resistance 3. Fibonacci retracement level 38% 4. Recently worked "hidden" resistance level 5. Even one yearly low is in this area 6. EMA 100 and 200 on the 4H chart should act as resistance 7. EMA's death cross It is NFP week so, be cautious with your trades and your analysis, try to catch only very strong setups! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
Short
by VaidoVeek
1
Exceptional speculation from mid April '18 onwardsUsing an updated chart of earlier posted opportunity around AUDUSD (AU) I like to highlight and illustrate the exceptional speculation that has been going on since mid April onwards. The first and many incidence of the same speculation has often seen coming in very sudden which indicates a single source instead of graduate forming of buying/selling pressure you see normally when larger long term trends are forming. Only news events cause such sudden incoming interest in the buying or selling of an asset when it's coming from a group, but then there have to be a profound reason for it been in the news and it always dies out within a few hours. Quite often we have seen USD buying surges since mid April not complying with any of these rules on top of that these volumes were sometimes hidden from public pools and planned very timely to exactly block a USD bearish cycle from bringing down the value of USD or a potential opposite interest such as London open. The latter is just too silly to observe, suddenly on Tuesday morning Asia timezone when there are normally low volumes until one hour before London open, there would be a ridiculous sudden surge of GU and EU selling at a time it was never seen before. There is simply also no reasonable explanation for anybody selling GU and EU at that time other to stopping GBP and EUR from being appreciated. Nobody says a word and nobody writes about it since that I have noticed these out of place events. There are some economists speaking in youtube videos but searching for manipulation of USD returns litle results on Google and first few entries are about China manipulating their currency and Google's very nice suggestion list doesn't show a single entry when typing it out into the search field. Well, everybody knows that every single central bank is doing it, all of them. They call it market operations and it published on their websites. Look at the implementation notes published by the FED May this year or read on about RBA market operations published clear in public, just to name two examples but all central banks list it as normal operational tasks as part of their portfolio of services. Yet search seems to return limited results, making everyone believe very few people are interested in this business. Something so important as a ring-network of almighty controllers manipulating the financial market on a daily basis and nobody would be interested. That doesn't glue very well with me, censored it is, big time, for only one reason, this network of market operators have a lot to hide. More than they trying to let the everyone believe with their website publications. The dangers are that like this year the speculators are all making to believe the sudden interest is genuine, just to grow a large group of supporters because the FED know it can't beat macroeconomic cycles. At one the these will overpower the built up speculative forces against the macros over 6 months and that contr force will be stronger than ever seen on the market and speculators will realise that at one point in time and start selling on top of the macro selling pressure. That combined could give us the strongest ever seen sling back down from high up reaching far below it normally would go, the so called overshoot could reach the opposite side of the market at USDJPY 67...
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
SNB - Central Bank Canary in the Coal Mine exits to the shortAt long last, one of our most important Canaries in the Coal Mine - the Swiss National Bank - has exited a lengthy consolidation pattern to the downside. Frankly, we are surprised it lasted this long given its exposure to long US mega-cap. Whatever is going on in there, it needs to take out 5400 on the upside to nullify today's short signal using the simple www.40in20out.com trend trading approach. (For what it's worth, for some reason our PineScript does not work on the delayed quotes on this exchange. We continue to investigate.)
SIX:SNBNShort
by 40in20out
Long term charts of USD pairs support DXY bulls?I've recently been looking over long term charts of USD pairs. Technically they show setups for a possible strong move up in DXY. I'm going to post a series of these charts because I believe they may be supportive of a much stronger USD.... This is contrary to my opinion that the USD should weaken given a number of reasons... Freeze in interest rate hikes / possible cuts Halting QT program Record high US deficits I'm going to let the charts speak for themselves as technical setups often defy rational reasoning. Also, technical patterns that date back 50 years are being traded by people with much more money than you or I..... And the lines seem clean. Everything in this modern economy is manipulated.... SPY, Gold, Silver, Currencies.... USD bulls might not be ready to give up without a fight...
by cccpKGB1
Base Money - First Time EVER!The Base money of the U.S. has cross below the 200x2Wk SMA for the first time ever. It is a 200 SMA of the 2 Week print or data reading. This is just how the FED reports, every two weeks. However, it has crossed below the 200 SMA. This to me is signaling a DEFLATIONARY Event is on the horizon. When money is taken out of the system at this rate it will be DEFLATIONARY. Followed by a Hyper-Inflationary environment to correct. The next couple weeks will be important to watch to see if the FED corrects this right away or lets us slip into the hole of no return for a while. What do you guys think? Remember....this has never happened since we started keeping track of our BASE MONEY.
FRED:BOGMBASE
by jasonroy40
EURUSD SHORT idea Hi guys and Merry Christmas ! I post a recent idea which i have to Short EURUSD with a target of 1,10 and 1,09 in my bigger picture of economy. As you seen in the diagram the trend of EURUSD is a downtrend . The price levels of 1,14-,1,15 is a retracement level , the main target of EURUSD is 1,10 as you see also from the regression canal . Also DXY continues to climb over the time and my targets are 98,4 and 102,58 with high propability of my first target. Between these European macro also sings for a down movement for EURUSD . Invest with wisdom and be carefull guys !
Short
by OmenFinance
The battle of oil heavyweights in G10 FXTrade set up - We are cautiously optimistic when it comes to USDCAD and looking to trade the pair as a proxy of US crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS). We enter the trade long at the current price of 1.3295, with small position sizing and tight stops set at 1.3200, for a break of the bullish channel. However, if we see a break of 1.3182 (22 November low) our view shifts to being aggressively short. Why we like this trade - Price action looks ripe for technical traders, with price holding above the 5- EMA, while also oscillating in a bullish channel. However, as mentioned earlier we are careful when entering this trade as stochastic momentum is presenting negative divergence (with price). While we have also seen a failed break of the recent high of 1.3323. Fundamentally, we feel there is a mispricing of US and Canadian rate hike expectations in 2019 with Canada pricing in almost two hikes and the US just one. We feel the pricing in US rates is justified, but we feel the market is too optimistic on Canadian hikes, given the collapse in WCS since the BoC turned neutral in October. While we keep out initial position to a minimum a daily close through 1.3323 and we would add to the position. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Long
by Pepperstone
1
Bonds Remain IrrationalRegarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest rates hawkishly, to the ECB finally declaring an end to QE, everything seemed to support the bond market collapsing further. My original profit target in ZN1! was right about where the red arrow is. I anticipated it to retrace the entire move from the FOMC meeting. Perhaps it is because the bond market is historically bearish. Perhaps it is because big players are cashing out of their net short positions, or because insiders know something we don't, but US treasuries have stabilized and have formed a range, if not a bull flag. The Kovach Indicators (at the bottom) show a solid bullish trend, and we have broken numerous levels of resistance. Perhaps we need more data events like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, or Consumer Sentiment tomorrow to help this sleeping giant awaken once more.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
4
EURUSD fundamental swing trade shortWhat points to USD strength fundamentally: - Monetary policy: FED rate median is at 2.15% end of 2018 vs ECB expected to hike only 2019 Q4 -> carry on USD side - CB balance sheet: FED BS decreasing since 2017 May, ECB still rising, tapering expected in '18 Sept - Inflation: US Core inflation 2.1% and forecasted to 2.4% vs Eurozone 1.1% and moderate upward forecast Cons: - Citi WERM valuation: EUR undervalued by 20% (historically not outstanding) - CitiFX Global Flows: Real Money got net EUR buyer in June Risk-events ahead: - US inflation - June 12 - FED rate decision (hike expected) - June 13 - ECB monetary policy meeting - June 14
Short
by RobertSoos
Why I Think Bitcoin Is a SELL!!!All right traders, I do not comment much on the bitcoin market, but I have seen just a ton of people all over the internet spitting nonsense about how bitcoin is going to $40,000 and this is just a small correction. So I wanted to put out a video talking about what I see on the charts technically and why I think fundamentally its a bad long term investment. I'm sure this video will tick off a bunch of you bitcoin apologists, but oh well. Thats the beauty of the markets, you can be on either side. Good luck and good trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by tommyb35
Will Aussie Dollar Strength Prevail in 2018?The Aussie Dollar experienced strength throughout 2017 against its US counterpart with a strong rally to finish the year before forming a double top last week. Over the past week, AUDUSD has fallen almost 2%, following a CPI miss in Australia and a positive earnings report in the United States. Is this a sign of things to come for the remainder of 2018 or will Aussie Dollar strength prevail? Throughout 2017, one of the main concerns of the Reserve Bank of Australia was AUD strength that resulted from a rally in metal prices and US Dollar weakness. As Australia is a net exporter, a weaker currency is favoured and with current rates at 1.5%, some analysts feel that it is unlikely for the RBA to raise rates this year. Westpac have also said that they do not see any rate hikes in the near future. However, recent data is showing that the economy is strengthening along with other countries globally which is expected to lead to inflationary pressure. In order to keep up with the global economy, this could result in the possibility of a rate hike later this year. Many asset managers currently have a negative outlook on the Australian Dollar as they believe that AUDUSD has risen on US Dollar weakness rather than Aussie Dollar strength. A key event for this pair will be the upcoming monetary policy statement from the RBA where analysts are expecting a more hawkish tone. The US dollar, on the other hand, is not having the best of runs despite a strengthening economy. The rate statement released by the Fed earlier this week increased the odds of a March rate hike, with a total of three hikes expected for the year. There is also the possibility of a fourth hike if data continues to improve and inflation begins to catch up with the rest of the economy. In addition, we saw a positive earnings report with NFP and average earnings beating expectations, allowing a strong finish on Friday for the dollar. Bond yields increased throughout the week, with the 10 year treasury yield in particular, heading towards 3% which investors consider a significant level. This was based on the global economy starting to rise, increasing expectations of inflationary pressure. However, the dollar continues to struggle against many other currencies with the dollar index seeing only a small gain last week and weakness is expected to continue in the coming weeks. A large part of this is down to the Eurozone economy, where we saw GDP growth that was larger than that in the US and UK. Analysts are now anticipating that the ECB will unwind its quantitative easing program and tighten monetary policy at a quicker pace than previously expected. Central banks globally are expected to follow on and also begin tightening policies, which should see them catch up with the US. Based on the current fundamentals, the weakness of AUDUSD seems to simply be a retracement and we should see a bullish run up until March. In March, we will assess the stance of the RBA against the Fed. If the RBA look to hold rates for the majority of the year and the Fed continue hiking, we will get a policy divergence with the Fed rate exceeding the RBA rate, at which point, AUDUSD weakness should kick in. Over the short term, we will be looking for buying opportunities on this pair and from Q2 we could be looking at short positions with long term targets around 0.75. However, traders should keep in mind that the fundamentals and sentiment can change quickly so it is important to frequently reassess long term positions. A prime example of this is the EURUSD currency pair which completely went against analyst expectations in 2017.
Short
by priyesh