In a weakened banking sector, Credit Suisse stands outI've just finished reading through Moody's analysis of Friday's Fed stress test of banks. Honestly, a lot of it was over my head. However, from what I can tell, it looks like Credit Suisse may be the best positioned of the big banks to weather this crisis. In the Fed models, CS survived with more Tier 1 capital than any other bank, beating most of them by a wide margin. CS also has little exposure to loan losses. Here's the link to the Moody's report:
www.moodys.com
CS looks attractively priced at 8.53 forward P/E and 0.6 PEG. Its Starmine Equity Summary Score is 9.9/10, meaning that analysts widely regard the stock as a "buy." I'm generally bearish on banks as we head into the July earnings season, but it looks like this may be a gem in the rough, a quality company that's been unduly punished along with the rest of the sector.
Capital
Bitcoin $533,431 as per CEO Dan Morehead of Morgan Capitalcointelegraph.com
CEO Dan Morehead has just come out with an insane but possible Bitcoin price target and this may just be what the doctor ordered. We are all waiting mostly for 2022 or 2023 for Bitcoin to hit a high of or over $250,000 but not according to Dan Morehead who is extremely optimistic with the price of Bitcoin going up 6,000% by mid-August of 2021. I don't know about ya'll, but I will take that price and date any day.
Why Bitcoin may never fall below $8,000 again If Bitcoin respects this curved resistance trendline, we may never see Bitcoin below $8,000 again. Of course, this is only a theory and not to be taken as trading advice. I am also using the Pitchfork fib to give us an idea of future prices. I have plotted a few prices at the $93,000 for the Stock to Flow projection and also the Pantera Capital $533,431 projection but respecting the upper curved trendline at end of 2022 instead of their 2021 projection.
Tesla Inc.: A strong BUY on any short-term declinesThe technical chart of the stock shows a remarkably volatile price action in the last 10 trading weeks with huge appreciations and even steeper declines. Tesla’s stock has always been considered as a rather speculative play for growth oriented investors, thus people who are familiar with the stock are no strangers to volatility. However, the moves that we have observed recently have really set some records for the stock.
After the company announced its 2nd consecutive earnings beat back on January 29th with its Q4 2019 earnings report and also gave an upbeat future guidance for 2020, the stock skyrocketed from $600 to $967 in two trading sessions. Soon after that astronomical 61% gain the stock started retracing and dropped to the $690-750 levels at the end of February, and looked quite comfortable there. However, the stock was then dragged lower with the rest of the market in March as a result of the global pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. The stock broke the initial horizontal support lying at $686, the secondary support at $542 and then proceeded its decline through the $455 tertiary support level to only stop at the 200-day moving average at the $350-360 zone. The company’s market capitalization lost 63% of its value in 4 weeks.
We are long-term buyers of Tesla’s stock as a result of the great fundamental positioning that the company has, as we believe that it is poised to benefit from the accelerated demand for the company’s products in the coming years. Additionally, the fact that the company has finally managed to become profitable and is now consistently delivering strong financial results is another great indication for the bright future ahead for the stock. However, following our cross-sector, multi-layered confirmation correlation model we have concluded that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) will give our followers a better entry point for them to open their long-term buy positions in the stock, in the next few weeks.
Thus, we would be interested in buying the stock on any pullback towards the $686 support level and will look to further add to our exposure to the stock in case the price revisits the next support zone around the $542. Our mid-term targets will be placed at the $890 and $995 marks respectively, with our extended long-term take profit levels positioned at the $1150 and $1220 per share.
For more trading ideas and analyses you can follow us everywhere!
Sincerely,
DowExperts
XLM at Bitcoin $250k or $533kDan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, has given Bitcoin a very bullish price tag of $533k by mid 2021. Should Bitcoin achieve this value by August 2021 then I really believe that XLM could explode up to a target price of $40. If we maintain the TIm Draper target of $250k by mid 2022 or the beginning of 2023 then XLM has a very good chance of reaching a $20 value per token. Of course please do not take this as a recommendation to invest as we all know this market is extremely speculative and you can lose all your funds (especially playing on margin) if you are not careful. If you are a visionary and see the future potential of this technology then you may not have to worry on the short term.
BTC PullBack Through The HalvingIm expecting to begin a pullback sunday may 10 with a 75 % accuracy, probably earlier (25 %). My targets are shown as Red Lines called "Areas of Support". The first is near 8000 USD and the second is near 7200. I give a 80 % to hit the first target and 20 % to the second target. Let's see what BTC brings to us.
CSU - Cup and Handle Breakout 1 Dollar BullBullish on this, Previous chart I published made money. Handle took longer to form. The market this company is in a cash cow market. Good long term hold. Low risk even if it goes to .85 buy more. Breakout to a dollar.
GBPUSD - Long = Compound Trade entries - Awesome 24% growthHello all - DuncanForex here with a continuation compound trade
With my first entry hitting TP this morning, I am looking to get more entries now on the next cycle higher
Trades 1, 2 and 3 entered this morning at 1.2070 along with GBPJPY
Trade 1 TP Hit
Trades 2 & 3 Stop loss is now at entry point of 1.2072 - to take into account swaps.
Entries, 4, 5 and 6 are on a buy stop at 1.2095 area
Take Profit targets I have added to this chart to show what I am aiming for overall
Trade number and reward vs risk ratio
1 = 2 to 1
2 = 3 to 1
3 = 4 to 1
4 = 3 to 1
5 = 5 to 1
6 = 7 to 1
Risk profile of 1% per trade
Overall Risk at any one time = 3% as first trade is already TP. trades 2 & 3 are at break even before second 3 trades opened.
Total capital growth if this plays out is
24%
Risking 6% overall of capital with only 3% of it at risk at any single time (3 trades opened with 1% each)
I hope you find it interesting
Head over to my website to join and learn how to do this yourself
Cheers
Duncan
Intraday short position USDJPY!!Welcome to fxtrading services, When there is instability we always see JPY rise in a technical point of view we see the retest of the channel and hammer formation on the 4hr timeframe. Fundamentally USD does not know exactly what to expect from Powell so that will give weakness to USD. Be careful for this week a lot of data coming up!!
LSF (L1 Long/Short Fund) - Bulls in ControlWe expect price to test the resistance pocket between 1.610 - 1.645 shortly, off the back of a bullish breakout and positive NAV movements.
LSF is still trading at a 10% discount to NAV.
There is the possibility of a pullback to retest the breakout point 1.500 - 1.540.
We expect any pullback to be met with big buyer demand, so long as the NAV keeps making gains.
$NLY long term dividend play!NLY - Annaly Capital
This is one of my long term dividend holdings that I picked up today (600 shares). It pays a 10% dividend on a mostly flat chart (9.70-10.00). I like the move back above the 200 daily moving average (red line).
My entry of 600 shares was at $10.47 today, February 12th, 2019. More info at wingtrades.com
don't worry about your losses
what happens if you have a 1:1.5 risk reward ratio(means if you win you won 1/5% of your balance if you lose you lost1% of your balance) and doing 2 trade via any strategy that you prefer in a day (means your open trades should not be more than 2 at the same time).
at the end of the month, you do 40 trades so we see below what happens(20 days * 2 trades = 40 trade in a month):
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if you win 40 trades and lost no trades you make 60% in a month
(40*1/5)-(0*1)=60-0=60%
if you win 35 trades and lost 5 trades you make 47/5% in a month
(35*1/5)-(5*1)=52/5-5=47/5%
if you win 30 trades and lost 10 trades you make 35% in a month
(30*1/5)-(10*1)=45-10=35%
if you win 25 trades and lost 15 trades you make 22/5% in a month
(25*1/5)-(15*1)=37/5-15=22/5%
if you win 20 trades and lost 20 trades you make 10% in a month
(20*1/5)-(20*1)=30-20=10%
if you win 15 trades and lost 25 trades you miss -2/5% in a month
(15*1/5)-(25*1)=22/5-25=-2.5%
if you win 10 trades and lost 30 trades you miss -15% in a month (better change your strategy)
(10*1/5)-(30*1)=15-30=-15%
if you win 5 trades and lost 35 trades you miss -27/5% in a month (better change your strategy)
(5*1/5)-(35*1)=7/5-35=-27/5%
if you win no trades and lost 40 trades you miss -40% in a month (better change your strategy)
(0*1/5)-(40*1)=0-40=-40%
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Now we average results:
(60+47/5+35+22/5+10-2/5-15-27/5-40)/9=10%
On average you can make 10% a month
At the first sight you may tell yourself how I am going to be rich with only 10% monthly so please attention to below and see what happens if you start with 5000$
1) 5000*1/10=5500$
2) 5500*1/10=6050$
3) 6050*1/10=6655$
4) 6655*1.10=7320$
5) 7320*1.10=8052$
-
-
12) 15,692$
-
-
24) 49,248$
-
-
36) 154,563
-
-
48) 485,086$
-
56) 1,039,825$
Congratulations!!! Now you are a millionaire after about 4/5 years of hardworking patience and discipline
This why we should not be afraid of our losses
GOOD LUCK
Abolfazl Abedi
Altcoin Market Cap Analysiswe now have access to the total crypto market cap excluding bitcoin right on tradingview! we can now apply technical analysis directly on the alt coin market cap chart! unreal!
1. we see the major trendline break (yellow dotted)
2. key psychology levels- $100 billion, $50 billion, $25 billion marks (teal lines)
3. descending channel (white)
4.TD Indicator
It will be very interesting to watch this chart develop over the next few years,
and will be updating this idea for sure. stay tuned!
best of luck, hit thumbs up.
Possible Short USD/CAD position!! SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H8
Timeframe - 1-2 weeks
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top . USD will move into consolidation towards the end of the week followed by a south movement towards the @1.307 level.
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @1.3343 area and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.307 level.
FX:USDCAD 1.02%
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation
Stop Loss @ 1.341
Target @1.307
Risk/Reward @ 3:1
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow
Thank you for your support :)
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Money Management 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Money Management 101
Are you receiving a win-rate of more then 60% and still loosing money?? Money Management may be an area that you need to focus on. It is an essential element in becoming a professional trader. Listed below are 4 Simple Steps To Evaluate Your Financial Health;
1. Position Sizing
A portfolio of $... and I decide to only risk 2% on a trading strategy
2. Capital - How much?
A portfolio of $....
3. Loss - How much?
I must be right more then 50% of the time, but win more money on winning trades versus losing trades. I will use stops and limits to enforce a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher
4. Profits - What?
A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compares to the size of the average loss per trade. For example, if your expected profit is $1500 and your expected loss is $500, the P/L ratio is 3:1
Please let me know if you have any questions :) Happy Trading
"The simpler it is, the better i like it" Peter Lynch
Calculating a negative open on the J200 -249 points.Based on my calculations I derive a negative open on the J200 -249 points.
The UK market finished weaker yesterday.
US markets ended mostly lower yesterday.
Tencent trading down -2% currently.
S&P and FTSE futures pointing lower.
Traders should look to profit from arbitrage opportunities between the ALSI open and the J200 open based on our caculations.
UK100Unum Capital: Technical Trade Ideas - FTSE100 and GBPUSD
Dear Trader
This morning the UK's FTSE 100 Index Future and GBP/USD feature among my trade ideas.
FTSE 100 Index Future (Buy/Long)
Over last few weeks the British Pound has rallied on the back of positive developments in the UK around Brexit. We have also seen some positive data being released which include: (1) GDP higher by 0.6% as well as (2) average earnings including bonuses increasing by 2.6%. While this has been positive for the currency, the FTSE has come under pressure as a result of large capitalization multi-nationals being dragged down as earnings and revenue expectations diminish on the back of a stronger Pound.
With the index now looking oversold and finding support on the channel trend line and at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, traders could look to take a buy/long position on a potential rebound.
These are the trade levels:
Buy/Long FTSE100 Future at current levels 7280
Stop-loss: 7235
Take Profit Target: 7400
Unum Market Commentary: Global Stocks Mixed
On Friday, South African equity markets were stable, holding near the lows of the week and continuing to trade within a tight, two-day range. For the session, the All Share closed 0.05% higher at 57130, while the Top 40 index was in the green by 0.12%. Supporting the positive close was Naspers (+2.61%), Discovery Holdings (+2.27), Firstrand (+2.23%) and Tiger Brands (1.94%) while shares that brought balance were the miners as Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Glencore closed lower by 4.18%, 3.38% and 3.36% respectively. Over in Europe, stocks were mixed, with the DAX and CAC40 gaining by 0.04% and 0.16% respectively while the FTSE 100 was lower by 0.56%. In the United States, stocks finished lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the way down, losing 0.31%. This morning Asian stocks are being weighed down by fresh concerns of an additional $267bn of tariffs being imposed on China by the United States.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 -2.64%
Industrial 25 +0.92%
Financial 15 +0.44%
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For the week ahead, there is plenty of data on the local economic calendar with Manufacturing Production kicking off tomorrow at 1pm. For the rest of the week's local and international data, you may view the Unum Capital Economic Calendar here: www.unum.co.za
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.28% to 15.27
GBPZAR +0.20% to 19.72
EURZAR +0.18% to 17.63
Gold trades at $1298
Platinum at $779
Brent Crude Oil at $77.27
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.15%)
Hang Seng (-0.85%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.63%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-0.46%)
Bovespa (+1.76%)
INMEX (+0.56%)
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Company News
Tiger Brands - Changes to the Board of Directors of Tiger Brands
In compliance with section 3.59 of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements, shareholders are advised that Mr Rob Nisbet has stepped down as independent non-executive director of the Company with effect from today, 7 September 2018. He accordingly also steps down as a member and chairman of the Audit Committee, as well as a member of the Investment and Risk & Sustainability Committees of the Company. Rob has served on the Board of Tiger Brands since 1 August 2010. The Board would like to thank Rob for his significant contribution to the Company and wishes him well in his future endeavours
African Rainbow Minerals - Provisional results for the year ended 30 June 2018
Salient features
- Headline earnings increased by 51% to R4 814 million (F2017: R3 196 million), which includes a net fair value gain of R977 million. The net fair value gain is due to a change in the net present value of loan repayment cash flows as a result of restructuring the ARM coal debt. Excluding the net fair value gain, headline earnings are up 20% compared to F2017.
- Headline earnings per share were 2 526 cents compared to 1 684 cents in F2017.
- Final dividend of 750 cents declared. A maiden interim dividend of 250 cents per share was paid for the first half of the financial year (1H F2018). The cumulative dividend for F2018 is 1 000 cents per share (F2017: 650 cents per share).
- Basic earnings were R4 562 million (F2017: R1 372 million) and include the net value gain of R977 million as a result of the restructuring of the ARM Coal debt. F2017 included attributable impairments of the Nkomati Mine and Modikwa Mine assets of R711 million and R734 million after tax and non-controlling interest, respectively.
- US Dollar prices realised for most commodities were higher except for iron ore, platinum and chrome concentrate prices.
- ARM and Glencore successfully concluded the restructuring of the ARM Coal debt which improves ARM and ARM Coal's obligations in terms of this debt.
- The disposal of ARM and Vale's 80% interest in Lubambe Mine was completed on 22 December 2017.
- Dividends received from the Assmang joint venture were R3 000 million (F2017: R2 488 million).
- The consolidated financial position improved by R2 266 million to net cash of R995 million (net debt of R1 271 million as at 30 June 2017).
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (-0.16%)
Rio Tinto (-0.80%)
S32 (+2.01%)
FANGs
Facebook (+0.31%)
Amazon (-0.32%)
Netflix (+0.64%)
Google (-0.54%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (-1.77%)
BHP Billiton plc (-1.67%)
Glencore plc (+2.68%)
Alibaba Holdings (+1.56%)
Tencent Holdings (-0.13%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Please feel free to contact the Unum Trading desk for any trading related queries : 011 384 29 29