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Cableshort

UK is Still Careening Towards A No Deal BrexitA few points to keep track of before the potential final vote on May's deal. First, whats being voted on is entirely different from previous votes. The details are complicated, but essentially the previous failed votes are now broken up into two main sections (which is apparently contrary to previous UK laws passed, but whatever) and the EU asserted that it would only grant an extension if one of those two parts (the Withdrawal Agreement) is passed. The Political Declaration is less important and can be renegotiated later. Second, if she doesn't get it passed, then the likelihood of a no deal Brexit will be much more priced into cable than previously. Traders are already seeing this with yesterday's deep losses which was the worst single day loss since December 10th 2018. We can also see the shift in the trend from the sheer number of exponential moving averages edging above the price of the pair. Third, although May not getting her deal passed would be quite negative for financial markets (which is somewhat more expected at this point despite her offering her premiership for her passing her deal) this does not automatically mean the UK will leave the EU without a deal. In fact, I would even argue that without passing a deal the two most likely options then become either an extension of the April 12 deadline to May-June or steps will be taken to progress towards not leaving the EU altogether. Fourth, what happens if (probably when) May loses Friday's vote is up in the air. She could then resign, or there could be another vote of no confidence, or there could be another renegotiated process with the EU, or she could try to get the vote passed again, or...you get the picture. Its really up in the air what happens after Friday, clearly this whole process is a mess and quite confusing, and seemingly the desires of the EU, of May's government, and of the House of Commons differ so significantly that even after almost three years of this whole process we still do not know if, when, or on what terms the UK would leave the EU. If May's vote fails, it has been suggested that she could simply aim for a customs union then and in fact this was the least unpopular indicative vote in the HoC yesterday. Because of this, it likely remains the most likely deal that could pass HoC. In this case, it seems that an extension beyond April 12 will be required and the EU will probably hold an emergency meeting after Friday if her vote fails. If her vote doesn't fail, then its all said and done. The UK would leave the EU on April 12. But don't expect such an anti-climactic outcome to come to fruition in this real life political drama. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit has More Bad Outcomes Than Good Ones At This PointFrom the BBC an hour ago, "Wednesday saw Mr Bercow once more cite parliamentary precedent to rule that another vote could only take place if the proposal tabled by the government was "substantially different" from the previous one." Without PM May's deal, there is no obvious direction for Brexit to go forward with regarding any significant deal between the UK and EU. If Bercow does not let May put forth her deal again later this week, he may not let her put it up at all. In that event, the UK is headed towards a no deal which is still not priced into cable. Like I've said many times, I'm not all in short just yet, but my general view is that cable is way overpriced especially since there are many more bad outcomes than good ones at this point.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPUSD Short Trade *FIBONACCI & TRENDLINE*GBPUSD has now reached the defending trendline on the 1hr/4hr lower highs. I have a Fibonacci Retracement cluster in this zone with the 0.618 and 0.786 levels providing a good potential resistance. There is also the descending trendline here and previous support zone. Stop loss is 45pips above the current highs. I am targeting previous lows for profit taking but I will pay attention to the zone around 1.31. There is an ascending TL here and price has previously bounced around that zone.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn772665
GBPUSD - Cable preparing for a new leg to the downsideLast night we had exciting movement from cable, seeing price bounce off a daily support/resistance region. The main catalyst being PM May's visit to Strasbourg yesterday where it was rumoured she had gained assurances from the EU. However, as of today it is evident she was unable to win over the Government & Members of Parliament, with the governments chief legal adviser giving a rather dovish statement and low liking to her BREXIT deal. A few of PM Mays own party members will reject her deal.This was a classic "Buy the rumour, sell the news" event. Members of Parliament are worried as the PM looks set to see a no deal outcome. Unless of course, the PM and her party alongside the ERG, DUP and majority of voters vote for the PM - which i highly doubt. Back to technicals and we can see on the daily timeframe we had a couple of higher highs and higher lows. However, we have come close to a 3rd touch of the trend line due to last nights news, forming a new lower high. Fundamentals are currently respecting technicals as we've seen a rejection of the descending trend line and a ping off price ranging between the 78.6 / 88.6 Fibonacci regions. We also managed to come below the daily support/resistance marked in purple. Short term downside targets are 1.28600 and 1.27350 respectively. I expect a retracement to this purple resistance also laying in line with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement region before seeing a leg to the downside, before creating a new lower low. This can be a great swing trade to capitalise on a no deal result before seeing a recovery of the GBP. As always, risk management is key. Market manipulation and volatility is expected in these times of uncertainty and volatile news event times should be noted! Thanks for reading, if you have an questions hit me up on instagram. Instagram : keownarcher
Short
by KeownArcher
Possible GBP/USD Short position SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1-2 Days Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top . B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @1.2990 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.2835 FX:GBPUSD Trade Management Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation. Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation. Target 1 @ 1.2835 Risk/Reward @ 2:5 Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
Wait for the pullback to short Cable Cable has been in a long-term down trend for 10 years, it never recovered from the highs of the 2008 crash up @2.1 (those were great New York and Chicago shopping trips), we had a 50% fib pullback into 1.7, continuing the downtrend to 1.6 by the end of 2017, Cable was already falling before Brexit. Since 2017 we've been in an uptrend within the boundaries of an ascending channel and now we're in a pullback, but have broken out of that channel after the Jan - April double top, bouncing at previous support @1.3065. The next moves are critical, do we continue the downtrend and retest 1.6 or break 1.34565 and move up to 1.4 and beyond. We don't know the future, we never will. But Brexit and probabilities are high for a continuous move down, after a reasonable attempt at moving higher towards 1.345. I won't be buying this pair unless I see a very strong move higher on a daily, 4H and 1H timeframe and one that holds support with strength, so I remain long-term bearish. I'm looking to sell below 1.345 and holding long-term down towards 1.5, I may also hold larger swing trades to capitalise on the inside moves.
Short
by CBMotivation
GBPUSD Overbought Short Term - Initial expected weakness MondayRECAP: GBPUSD lower as expected but bottomed 19 pips above strong support at 1.3080/70. An unexpectedly strong bounce beat 1.3260/65 with stops above 1.3290 activated before a high 11 pips from 1.3325/35. FORECAST: GBPUSD overbought short term so hopefully some initial weakness at the start of this week to allow us to start buying in to longs at 1.3235 & 1.3185, adding down to 1.3110/00. Holding above 1.3270/80 is positive targeting 1.3320/30. Above look for minor trend line resistance at 1.3379/80 then 1.3400 more of a challenge.
Short
by DayTradeIdeas
Cable's out.Weekly chart is showing us multiple confirmations for a continuation to the downside. PA showing a double top at the 1.40 price level, suggesting a strong point of previous support before breaking through mid 2016, has now turned resistance. A break below the neckline and the EMA band came in conjunction with the MACD sell signal. There's a range between approximately 1.32 and 1.35 on the daily chart I'm watching and the BoE rate announcement this upcoming week should make this an interesting play. A break below the range and I see price coming down to the 1.2750 level next.
Short
by LockNLos