BITCOIN about to DOUBLE its PRICE on this final parabolic rally!Following a recent idea on how Bitcoin behaves after breaking an All Time High (ATH) level (following a major crash of more than -50%), I've extended my research and discovered the following occurrence.
Many people (and rightly so) compare the May correction (and subsequent consolidation of June-July) to the April - October 2013 sequence. That fractal occurred after a +737.50% rise since the breaking of the (former) $32 ATH. The rise that followed the breaking of the $268 ATH that peaked on the $1245 ATH was +364.55%, i.e. almost exactly 50% of the previous rise ($32 to $268). I indicate this as 'X/2', where 'X' represents the $32-$268 rise.
If the current ATH ($64900) break-out follows that 2013 fractal and the rise that has just started following the break of the $64900 ATH ends up at 50% of the (previous) rise of the $19800 ATH break to $64900, then the new ATH can be around $138500.
Is it too far fetched of a scenario to have such an occurrence indicate a Cycle Top that accurately? Let's see. Bitcoin has certainly shown that its historic pattern tend to repeat themselves.
So what do you think? Is Bitcoin ready to double in price? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN New ATH! Congratulations HODLers! Is 100k next?I can't help but make this a festive post as Bitcoin finally broke the previous All Time High (ATH) of $64900 made last April, a level many thought it wouldn't reach again for many years to come if ever! So let us take this short opportunity to congratulate everyone. All the HODLers. For all those who had to endure 5 months of stress, anxiety, discomfort and pain but didn't lose hope and held. Those who were mocked by and had to sit and listen to people who don't possess the slightest understanding of Bitcoin, the Blockchain technology and what they represent. By now you all know that with every correction most mainstream people pop up telling crypto enthusiasts that "BTC is going to 1k, 100 or even zero"! By now I am sure you all know better than this. Well, congratulations to all, this victory is well deserved, Bitcoin has made a new ATH today. Let's see now what possibilities lie ahead.
As I published on October 11 (see chart below), I personally believe that we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern emerge:
Technically, this pattern doesn't need to see its Handle start with a rejection on the Resistance (which in this case was the 64900 ATH) but may rise a little higher (FOMO can kick in now) before correcting into the Handle. Every major medium to long-term correction for BTC during parabolic runs, has the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its major candidate to offer Support. This is currently a little over $50000.
The 1D MA50 is so critical for another reason as well. The 1D RSI pattern since August 01 resembles the RSI sequence from October 2020 to January 2021. As you see so far the two fractals are fairly identical. What followed after the January 08 2021 RSI was a strong correction, which translated in BTCUSD price terms as a pull-back on the 1D MA50. As the 1D MA50 held, it gave back a +100% rally before the late February correction. +100% from the current 1D MA50 levels falls at $101000, which is exactly the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the Cup's bottom (28700) to top (64900), which is the theoretical target on any C&H pattern.
Before closing this analysis, it would be useful to take a look at how BTC has reacted historically during previous ATH break-outs.
* On December 01 2020, it broke above the $19800 ATH and instantly dropped -11% before quickly recovering:
* On March 01 2017, upon breaking the $1245 ATH, it dropped -31% before quickly recovering:
* On November 06 2013, it broke the $267 ATH and continued rising parabolically without a correction:
* On February 28 2013, it broke the $32 ATH and again continued the aggressive rally without a correction:
So historically it appears that the probabilities for a correction at this stage are even.
What do you think about this scenario? Will Bitcoin pull-back towards the 1D MA50 and then rebound or you believe it's going straight towards $100k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN The 2W RSI reveals the next Bull Cycle TopThis is Bitcoin on the 2W time-frame. This has been used very rarely and understandably so as it is not a popular time-frame but on this particular occasion it offers valuable insight on BTC's long-term Cycles.
As you see the RSI is trading under a Lower Highs trend-line since its inception. Every Lower High is a Top and a strong pull-back has followed. On the current price action, the most recent Lower High didn't form the Cycle Top as the price is now testing the ATH, something that has historically shown that is a continuation sign of the Bull Cycle. Consequently, it resembles the March 2013 Lower High which was the last High before the Bull Cycle Top/ ATH. This suggests that the next RSI contact on the Lower Highs trend-line may be the Cycle's Top.
The LMACD is also printing a similar sequence as it is forming a Bullish Cross following April's Bearish cross, a pattern that was also seen in late 2013. The LMACD Bearish Cross of June 2013 was succeeded by the Bullish Cross of October 2013 and the Cycle Top was formed shortly after.
What do you think? Will history repeat itself? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BTC SWING set and forgetTalk of a futures-based Bitcoin ETF has been swirling around the market for months but recent commentary suggests that the SEC may soon approve at least one if not two applications as early as next week. Recent reports suggest that two ETF proposals by ProShares and Invesco may be given the green light next Tuesday to launch their products, although the SEC can still pull the plug by Monday evening. If one or both of these ETFs launch next week, the other applications in the SEC’s in-tray will need to be looked at as a matter of urgency to try and dampen down first-mover advantage. While many believe that the recent move higher in Bitcoin has been in anticipation of an ETF announcement, the underlying cash market will continue to be underpinned, and driven higher, by demand for futures.
We have been bullish on Bitcoin over the past few weeks, not just on the overwhelmingly positive sentiment in the space, but also due to a bullish technical chart set-up. The daily chart shows a classic break out of a bullish pennant at the start of October, while the recent uptrend has provided tradeable support and resistance levels over the last 10 days. Added to this a bullish simple moving average set-up, with the 20-day sma turning sharply higher, while the CCI indicator has not touched extreme overbought levels. As it stands, there is a technical resistance at the levels of 60k and the prices might go down from there ahead of Tuesday’s ETF announcement
We can position our sell orders at 61500 with our fixed stop loss above 69000 and our first target will be 50000 if broken we might see the last lower low on the long term at almost 10000 for each bitcoin
What is your view on Bitcoin (BTC) – bullish or bearish?
BTCUSD Short updated, short all correctionsHi there
Last bull trap on BTCUSD happening!
After the fake breakout one more time, all bulls have the confidence again of the 100k targets + (some say 500k).
The sentiment on BTC is dumb bullish RN, again, all dips will be bought by the bulls which will give liquidity again for the market to crash, but this time, to lower levels (10-5k target)
Watch all corrections and short it, hold it long term and enjoy the profits
Good luck
BITCOIN Will the Channel Up turn into a Cup and Handle to 100k?Four weeks ago, following the new China ban on crypto, I've posted the following analysis, explaining why the July Channel Up had the necessary momentum to overcome the bearish pressure of the Channel Down:
Huge success for buyers as the Channel Up prevailed and as you see the price is currently approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern. I will not go into much detail on the pattern as I've explained it on the previous study. I will note however how successfully the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) supported when it needed the most (bottom of the Channel Up) and the fact that we have an emerging 1D Bullish Cross of the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is quite important as the past 4 such occurrences since 2016, have all resulted into strong rallies to a Higher High:
The CCI was rejected its Lower Highs trend-line that has successfully marked the Channel Up Higher Highs since July 26. This may suggest that a pull-back to the bottom of the Channel is quite likely now. The 1D MA100 is waiting for another support/ bounce event.
The next Resistance before the All Time High (ATH) mark is at 59600 and I want to highlight its importance. Bitcoin has traded above $60k for only 14 days. Even though that may pose as a serious selling pressure point, I need to point out that if the 59600 Resistance breaks and the ATH gets tested, it will complete a Cup pattern and naturally the pattern will have a Handle formation pending. If that's the case, then technically the bullish break-out extension for a Cup and Handle pattern is as long as its top from its bottom. On the main chart I've drawn the Cup and Handle with dotted shapes but you can see it more clearly on the following image:
As you see the Cup and Handle in that case will be targeting just over $100k. Could this be the formation we've all been waiting for? Let's see if this very successful Channel Up can transition into this. What do you think? Will BTC get rejected at 59600 back to the 1D MA100 or break straight above it and test the ATH and then complete the Cup pattern?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN Last consolidation before reaching the 100k mark?This is Bitcoin's Accumulation, Rally, Peak and Repeat sequences since the Bear Cycle bottomed in December 2018. I won't go into much detail as I think the chart is pretty much self-explanatory. One small note, the chart is on the 1D time-frame while the RSI below is on the 1W time-frame to better grasp its movement and the point where we may be at compared to the previous sequence.
As you see each sequence starts initially with an Accumulation Phase followed by a Golden Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)) which leads to a Parabolic Rally and ultimately the Peak of the sequence.
Currently it appears that we are on the 3rd successive such sequence and in particular in the last shake out/ consolidation before the Parabolic Rally, as BTC has already formed a Golden Cross. Each Peak is +0.5 Fib extension higher. If this sequence holds it means that the next Peak should be on the 2.0 Fib ext. That is well above 150k currently and depending on how long this 3rd sequence lasts, it should be even higher.
Is this a roadmap for you or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BTCUSD The beginning of new growthBTCUSD The beginning of new growth
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BTCUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsIt took a whole 3 months for the price to move over 17,000 pips in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); that is approximately 83.7% growth in 3months! And following the sudden loss of $10,000 during last week trading session (7th of Sept 2021 to be precise), the price has remained untypically stable with high hopes of breaking the $46,000 landmark (Key level) in the coming week(s) and this feat (Breakout) could possibly incite a significant rally.
Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)
Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom)
Observation: i. Since price broke above and retest our Neckline @ $40,000 in August 2021, we have witnessed a 41.65% growth to hit a peak @ $53,000.
ii. The line drawn under pivot lows is a visual representation of increasing demand for BTC and this also reveals the prevailing direction of price action in the last two and a half months.
iii. At the time of writing this report, the price is presently at $45,900 and the current price sharing a confluence with the pre-existing Trendline could be another clue for a rally continuation if the Trendline is not broken to the downside.
iv. At this juncture in the market, we can not ignore the possibility that the Trendline can be broken to the downside and if this happens, I have identified a range around $38,000/42,000 for the opportunity to take advantage of the trend continuation hence patience is key.
v. This been said and considering volatility expectations, breakout/retest of the Key level at $46,000 remains comfortable for me to take a long position on this pair in the coming week... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 18,000 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:6
Potential Duration: 12 to 25days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
DOT/USD🤑 ETH killer?😵A correction took place throughout the market, but the DOT did not touch it and the bulls returned it to the range of $ 30-36, you should be careful here, since the safe buy zone for the medium term is no higher than $ 19 and if now buyers do not break through the resistance level, then we are going to the nominal $ 19, there are also suggestions that the DOT price correction is not over yet.
Do you agree?)
Your Solldy.
Bitcoin in Correction mode. Will Hit 42.5K zoneBitcoin has broken lower channel have retested it.
At this stage next support it can find is at 42500 zone. Most probably it should bounce off this support.
However if it is unable to hold this support, then next support is at 40800 zone.
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Note - These are my personal notes and in no way a financial advice. Do your own research and Trade wisely
BITCOIN is testing the 1D MA200, key to continue the Bull Cycle.Not that long ago, on July 21, when Bitcoin hit its two month Support Zone of 29000 - 30100 and Triple Bottomed, I posted the following analysis indicating that the Target was the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
Well today the price finally reached that level after 72 days (first time since May 26), and what we have so far is a rejection. As long as it doesn't break (and close a week above it), it is not ideal for the bullish case. BTC's historic price volatility indicates that the 1D MA200 is what differentiates the Bull Market from the Bear Market. It is that one last barrier, which if unbroken, Bitcoin confirms entering a Bear Cycle.
The following charts clearly illustrate this case for the previous Bear Cycles:
As you see during the 2018 Bear Cycle the price was rejected four times on the 1D MA200, failing to break above the 0.5 Fib retracement level. That put the market into a multi-month limbo.
In 2014, the price broke both above the 0.5 Fib and the 1D MA200 but only marginally.
In the 2011 Bear Cycle, again it broke the 1D MA200 only marginally in early 2012 (but again failed to break the 0.5 Fib). When it closed and traded for the first few weeks above it, the new Bull Cycle started.
Perhaps a similar situation to the current sequence is the January 2020 1D MA200 test. As the chart below shows, the price was initially rejected on the 1D MA200 and just below the 0.5 Fib but only for a few days, after it eventually broke above both, even the 0.618 Fibonacci which has never been the case in the previous three Bear Cycles mentioned above. The fact that a market melt-down was followed in March, isn't at all related to the technicalities of the MA200 breaking, as a market collapse due to a once in 100 years pandemic, is not a technical event:
Furthermore, the CCI action today is very similar to then, also to October 2020 and December 2020. Perhaps the golden sequence that indicates Bull Cycle continuation is the combination of breaking above the 1D MA200 (weekly closing above) and the 0.618 Fib. Right now BTCUSD is testing the 1D MA200, above the 0.5 Fib with the 0.618 located at 47500 (all Fibs on log levels).
Do you think the golden combination of breaking the 1D MA200 and the 0.618 Fib will take place eventually, and if it does will that signal the continuation of the Bull Cycle to new All Time Highs (ATH)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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