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BTCUSD :: Rebound Possible Ahead of Options ExpiryBTC/USD Technical Analysis The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been under pressure lately. The pair is trading at 47,615, which is lower than the chin of the double-top pattern at 49,418. It has also moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and is a few points above the key support at 46,000. It is also a few points below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, while the overall trend is bearish, there is a likelihood that the pair will rebound in the coming days after the options expiration. If this happens, the next key resistance to watch will be at 50,000. Bullish View Buy the BTC/USD pair and add a take-profit at 50,000. Add a stop-loss at 46,000. Timeline: 2 days. Bearish View Sell the BTC/USD and add a take-profit at 46,000. Add a stop-loss at 48,000. The BTC/USD pair remained under pressure on Thursday morning as demand for Bitcoin remained sluggish. The pair is trading at 47,615, which is about 10% below its highest level this week. Options Expiry It is unclear why Bitcoin has struggled in the past few days considering that American equities have been relatively strong in the past few days. The S&P 500 is trading at a record high while the Dow Jones is a few points below its all-time high. A possible reason is that investors are selling Bitcoin ahead of the options expiry that will happen on Friday. A total of 129,800 options contracts worth about $6 billion will expire. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to see some weakness ahead of expiration. This trend happens because of spot traders who try to push the spot price closer to the strike price. At this point, the highest number of open options usually expire worthlessly, which leads to max pain for options buyers. This point will be $48,000, which is slightly above the current level. Another possible reason for the current price action of the BTC/USD pair is that the low volume in the financial market is leading to substantial volatility. We have already seen some volatility in other markets, including the bond market. In addition, the BTC/USD pair is likely falling because of the Federal Reserve. The Fed has hinted that it will start to unwind its easy-money policies in the coming months. It will end its quantitative easing program in March and then implement three rate hikes in 2022. In most cases, risky assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform when the Fed has embraced a hawkish tone.
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by SmoothJB
BTC/USD Analysis: Bullish SequenceI wrote last Monday that the technical picture here had become more bearish, with the price dominated by a descending bearish trend line suppressing the price for more than one week. I foresaw lower prices as likely. However, I did think that the support level at $46,381 was likely to produce a firm bullish bounce if reached. I was correct to be bearish insofar as the price traded lower over most of the day, well into the New York session, before bouncing close to the support level at $46,381 and then rising ever since. I was on the right track as seeing that level as likely to be strong, although my call was not actionable for a long trade. The technical picture is considerably more bullish, as we have seen a succession of higher lows and higher highs over recent days. The technical feature which really stands out in the price chart below is the support level at $49,576 which looks very likely to hold if reached again, especially as it is confluent with the very major psychological round number at $50k. The problem bulls are facing is that although risk sentiment is quite good in the market right now, Bitcoin seems to be running out of steam in recent days as it gets close to the resistance level at $51,912. I do not want to take a short trade there as the dominant structure remains bullish. I am persuaded by the bullish case although I am not strongly bullish. I will take a long trade from any bullish bounce at either of the nearby support levels at $50,153 or $49,576 especially. Long Trade Ideas Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $50,153, $49,576, or $48,111. Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride. Short Trade Ideas Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $51,912 or $53,201 or $53,853. Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SmoothJB
1
BTCUSD - almost signal for long positionMorning Traders, After price drop of 21% we can see slowly rising price. Price just Break through upper Tl of the channel – Resistance. Last candle (size of over 500$) may close over the top of the channel. Last candle may be the signal of long position. But be careful, some time next candle may return to TL to indicate that TL perhaps will be support. Also we have resistance level of 50,000$. I will wait for H1 candle closed above this level. Momentum is become strong on rising trend and approaching buy zone. Recommendation: Go down on the to H1 chart and wait what will happen with resistance level and situation with resistance on channel. Only strong candle (read long candle) we may have long position signal. Please do not forget to like this analysis. Thank you. Cheers, Jim
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by jimmycdn
Early profit take indicator set upI have used 3 indicators here all settings are shown in the picture. This settings works best for weekly and daily chart. U can use in low time frame but will be a little bit difficult. 1.bollinger band basis. -- for early reversal ** candle cross Bbb is the 1st sign of reversal ** Turned off upper and lower band from settings 2.hull suite-- for secondary confirmation 2.hull moving average-- for final confirmation I u find this set up helpful and useful Plz help me also Usdt Trc20 --TNPS8wmWSiw3uXJpHugFeG2R2hWoD6t7hQ Btc bep20---0xe55ad4b97cdaf233383c2991bfcb5515bf9c1a1b
INDEX:BTCUSD
by didarulqb
BTCUSD 0 what is happening? God morning Traders, very interesting situation on Bitcoin. We have few support and resistance levels (not zones). Rising price created rising channel and price is on resistance line. In channel there are two lines – bottom is support and upper line is resistance. Also we have resistance on split candles (52060) and on Doji (53069). but first we have 50000 resistance. If the price will ris above 52060, then there is possibility to open long position after candle that close above that specific level. Those levels should created significant resistance for the price to rise higher. For the passed 250 years Japanese traders saying that “essence of the price changes is real body of candlestick” – open and close price. Do not ignore this old wisdom. - Level of 49275.4. Most of the traders looking for SR level on Highest and lowest price. This is wrong. But check on the chart yoyr self where is SR levels. Wisdom saying - that Is not highest or lowest price is important but the open and close price. For the support level we have: 49000, 48000 and 46584 levels. Price remain on the top of the channel, then we should not open long position. Within 30% of the channel if the price will start going down then we can open short position. But price reaming over support level of 50000. So be careful. Momentum is on very high level -in zone of buing. But last peak stop price from rising higher. If price will start droping (long candle) we will be able to open short position. Do not forget to click on like this analysis. . Cheers, Jim
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by jimmycdn
2
BTC: Retest of 55k first, back down to 35K is next.Dear Crypto Degenerate, As the weekly tops and bottoms indicator (below the chart) shows we're having more sellers then buyers(only 33% are buyers) and the price is underneath the local support line (blue line). Bitcoin is ready to retest 55K before dropping into the crypto abyss. Short at 55K, Take profit 35K... is my opinion based on new bearish trend on the daily also, Wish you a lot of money and fun. Cheers, The Crypto Weatherman
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_Crypto_Weatherman
NeutralHi guys, if we see bitcoin in weekly time frame and from another angle we can see an uptrend wedge, I predict three scenarios for the next move. , Scenario 2: Reject Bitcoin 53 but suffer for a while to stabilize above it and continue to climb again. Continue the upward trend and finally be able to pass 53. You should always look at the prices and use the trend based on their proximity to each of the scenarios, also keep in mind that if the uptrend breaks, the whole scenario is void.
by Mohsenzanganeh2021
BITCOIN Weekly and daily tell the whole storySo. Bitcoin is down -40% from the November 10 High (and All Time High (ATH)) and once more the market is on full fear mode. This is not the first time we have come across a sell-off like this, in fact we can argue that such big pull-backs are a necessary process during a long-term bullish trend and have historically paved the way to even stronger and more aggressive parabolic rallies. On this urgent analysis, I focus on the weekly (1W) and daily (1D) time-frames, which I think most accurately grasp the current picture. ** The Weekly chart ** First and foremost in situations of such sharp sell-off like the current one, it is always best (and more accurate) to look at the bigger picture and time-frame, the 1W chart (chart on the left). Without the biases and news noise of the short-term charts, the weekly gives a more objective technical outlook to where the price stands. And for that cause, a great deal of help is provided by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see BTC broke today that trend-line but has so far managed to rebound off the lows to some extent. This is not the first time the price behaves like that in 2021. During the previous major correction in May, the price also broke below the 1W MA50 on two occasions since late June but always managed to hold it and that provided the necessary support for the huge +100% rally of July - November. This indicates that as long as the weekly candle closes above or at least around the 1W MA50, BTCUSD has a legitimate probability of forming a Support there and start a new rally. On this time-frame it is also interesting to check at an RSI fractal. As you see, I've numbered the mid-2019/ early 2020 sequence and compared it with that of early 2021/ today. The similarities are more than obvious in terms of 1W RSI, even though on actual price terms the 2019/2020 sequence was much more bearish. The key catalyst of course then was the March 2020 sell-off led by the massive global panic over the COVID pandemic outbreak that melted markets world-wide. On RSI terms that was leg (5). Right now this doesn't look to be as aggressive. The catalyst seems again to be the market fear over the new COVID Omicron variant. It remains to be seen if global markets are this time more resilient with better knowledge on how to deal with the situation than in 2020. If not, it is very much likely to see Bitcoin collapse more to the 30k - 28k zone. ** The Daily chart ** Besides the weekly, the daily time-frame can also provide very useful information on the current picture. The pattern since early August seems to be a Bullish Megaphone. What we should focus on right now is where the previous strong buy accumulation took place. That was from September 21 to 29. The price dropped below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), found Support just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High and when it broke again above the 1D MA200, it started the strong October rally. Right now the price again broke below the 1D MA200 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level but only marginally and is so far rebounding. A repeat of this pattern should see Bitcoin form a support here for a few days and then rally to a new All Time High. ** Conclusion ** It can be argued that it is too early to assess the damage made and how low this can go. However, we need to keep a close eye to the weekly and daily parameters mentioned above as if BTC holds and closes above the 1W MA50 then there is a legitimate chance that next week the area around the 1D MA200 turns into the new buy accumulation zone for December and give way to a new aggressive rally. How decisive do you think those parameters/ factors will be in shaping up the BTC market in the following days/ weeks? Do you think the 1W MA50 will hold and initiate a rally? Or will the pattern break and dive further to 30k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
59
BTCUSD - big fall of the price but...Hello Traders, Due to strength of USD price of bit coin drop drastically. By looking on channel look like price may drop more, but I you can see there is support on the way (red line 53668. Perhaps this support will stop price but we have observe market. This support is on last long black candle. Support and resistance always shows on open close and 50% of the candle. Next support will be on 53000. Momentum is is in the range of sales. May stop on the last lower trough. Lets wait for reverse and see what will happen next cheers, Jim
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by jimmycdn
2
BITCOIN This predicted the COVID bottom and now shows the top!Bitcoin has lately taken a pause on its monthly rally that followed the July bottom, and what better time to look at some highly accurate old models and work around them to produce projections. This is what I've done on today's idea, I've basically extended a high precision technical pattern of May 2019, which was extremely accurate at predicting the March 2020 market bottom (COVID flash-crash) and the subsequent multi-month rally that followed and brought BTC to where it is today: As you see, that past idea was based on the BNC index, as at the time it was the BTC ticker with the longest data set. Now I have to mention at this point that geopolitical and other natural disasters such as the COVID pandemic cannot of course be predicted using technical analysis but more often than not such fundamental events are used by the markets as drivers/ catalysts in order to help at fulfilling a technical pattern. So, the main idea behind the May 2019 analysis was that Bitcoin wasn't yet ready to start a strong rally as it had to fulfil the -0.382 Fibonacci extension trend-line. On today's analysis I've displayed these lines in blue to avoid confusion with other trend-lines on the chart. The -0.382 Fib was the lower extension of the Channel that started every time BTC started to rise after it made the bottom on the previous Cycle than the one we are currently at. As you see all such Channels (faded grey 0 - 1 Fib) start on the Higher Lows after the Bottom. In all Cycles since 2010, they have predicted the Bottom of the next Cycle with high accuracy. The new contribution on today's study is that I've extended this methodology by incorporating the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level within those small channels into the equation. That shows that the last major High before the Cycle's ultimate top (All Time High/ ATH) is on that 0.618 Fib, if that is after the dashed red trend-line (I will talk about this and the other trend-lines next). Practically that shows that the April High was the last High before the Cycle's Top and that BTCUSD should soon start the new rally towards the Top. Where that Top can be? Well on the current Channel the 1.0 Fib (i.e. top of the Channel) is currently around $150k. I've marked the potential Peak Zone with this Green Area, which is the band within the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibs. That brings us to the second addition of today's idea, the different zones within Bitcoin's Parabolic Growth Channel. Now, this is not a new subject, I've analyzed this extensively over the years. This time however, I put it into a better perspective by introducing the Buy, Neutral, Sell and Overbought Zones on top of the smaller Channels mentioned above. Keep in mind that all this dataset is on the very long-term 1W (weekly) time-frame, meaning that when calling Bitcoin overbought, it is within the context of multi-year cyclical behavior not just a single day, week or month. So as you see the Buy Zone is within the bold green and dashed green trend-lines. The Neutral Zone is within the dashed green and dashed grey trend-lines. The Sell Zone is within the dashed gery and bold red trend-lines. Finally the Overbought Zone is within the bold red and orange trend-lines. All trend-lines have major contact points on series of 1W candles on this chart and this is why the form reliable zones. Right now the price is on the top of the Neutral Zone, which is where it's always been before the final parabolic rally to a new Cycle Top. This aggregated analysis shows that expecting a $100000 target in the coming months, isn't at all an extreme expectation, in fact it falls under the more modest projections of the model. But where do you see the next top at? Do you think that my methodology presented on this idea is accurate at predicting tops and bottoms? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
41
BTCUSDAs I said last weeks, ...as I said in recent weeks, BTC is on an upward trend but being in the area of the highest point in history I can not estimate any value ... however, I will not ignore the theory of a strong withdrawal movement and I will enter SELL at the first closing week below 59600 to the area 54000 or even lower to 48600 ....even if it seems unreal to many, it would seem that the BTC retraction movement is imminent! I will remain consecvent on my idea and enter SELL if it closes below 59600 THIS WEEK... Eppur si muove!! Even if I received 47 messages arguing that I saw an imminent withdrawal on BTC ... here it has reached my target 1 and it would seem that it goes to target 2 from where I will reanalyze ... PS: to those who want to write to me and argue with me, please don't get tired ... this is a platform on which we all have the right to express our ideas and no one is always right! these are just my opinions based on my analyzes and no one is obliged to follow them! NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
6
BITCOIN approaching its bottom. $80k target for December.The scene is familiar. Bitcoin drops and there is panic in the crypto market. This time the catalyst being used is the new COVID variant which is feared to be spreading across Europe. This shouldn't divert you from your goal and make you lose sight of the bigger picture, which is an uptrend since July's lows. Before I start, I want to point out that today's study is a combination of two previous pieces of analysis: As you see, both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Underlying Pivot line played a major role since I published the posts above in forming Bitcoin's trend. At the moment, BTC is below both the 1D MA50 and the Pivot line, having been rejected there a total of three times in the past 6 days. The very same price action was seen during BTC's previous Higher Low wave from September 06 to October 01 when the price broke above the Underlying Pivot and began October's Higher High leg. Basically this is what is needed now as confirmation for the bullish signal: the price to break and close above the Pivot. If the RSI bounces off its July Support Zone (green) it would be even better. As you see so far the pull-backs and the rallies have been fairly symmetrical since July. Assuming this pattern extends, I would expect the next Higher High (and All Time High) to be somewhere within the 2.0 Fib of the Fibonacci Channel (as each Higher High is +0.5 Fib higher than the previous) and the Fib 2.0 extension on the horizontal (blue). Thus setting a more moderate Target Zone for December right below, may be the most optimal approach. This would be around $80000. Do you agree with this pattern? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! P.S. Keep in mind that the current pull-back may be nothing more than the handle of a giant Cup and Handle formation towards $100k early next year as I mention on the idea below: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
22