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Btcusdlong

BTC/USD - LONG SCENARIOS - ANALYSIS - DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary. -> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts. TABLE OF CONTENTS - 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 21,013.91 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 21,163.44 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 21,630.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 21,798.97 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 22,238.24 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 25,686.93 USD | Pending processing > As "dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Aug/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 22,504.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 22,731.45 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 23,439.99 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 23,695.06 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 24,361.08 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 29,590.06 USD | Pending processing > As "dashed" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - June/2022 -. -> 0.328 FIB = 22,468.86 USD | Pending processing -> 0.618 FIB = 26,754.19 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 27,227.05 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 28,704.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 29,326.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 30,625.76 USD | Pending processing > As "solid" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. | DEMAND ZONES The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 29,282.36 – 32,399.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAYS ZONE | 1 | = 21,538.51 – 22,799.00 USD | Pending processing -> TAGES ZONE | 2 | = 23,671.22 – 25,211.32 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 3 | = 29,944.10 - 32,399.00USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 1 | = 22,182.93- 22,794.61USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 2 | = 23,111,.04- 23,600.00USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 22,600 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 1 | = 28,000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 30,000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. 6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL | The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022. -> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement SECOND PART As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent) What would speak for it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786 - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation. - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (1) - "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG - Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it. All levels plotted on this screenshot: 2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent) What would speak for it: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending - "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools - Uptrend line serves as resistance - Test from last market structure break + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above. All levels drawn in on this screenshot: CONCLUSION What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels). - If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it. - If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) -> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum. -> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all. If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it. Thank you and happy trading!
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
BTCUSD- 240 MINS TIMEFRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradelikemee