Btc-short
INJ Trade Idea My thoughts on a bearish scenario for INJUSDT.
After a SFP (swing fail pattern) sees price come back into range and retest the previous high as resistance, as well as BTC slowing down its rally and losing momentum, this is when alts bleed heavily against bitcoin. INJ has an almost textbook Head & Shoulders reversal pattern that's broke below the neckline. For me, if price doesn't bounce at the $3.57 mark then these are my 4 Take Profit areas i'm looking at:
TP1 - top of the first bullish OB that started a very strong rally, no doubt there will be some buyers there looking to defend large positions.
TP2 - The base of the OB offering a better R:R
TP3 - An important DBR (Drop Base Rally) that offers a great R:R to flip long, maximising the full way down the previous rally.
TP4 - For me if we are to reach this area something has to go horribly wrong with BTC, perhaps down to the 19-20k range again which is possible but I do think a 50% retrace down to this level is unlikely, however a great short move if completed.
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly,
September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse
March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Asset correlations (bottom pane):
Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today
Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Indicators' inference :
The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988.
The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation.
Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart:
TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1
Finally,
Current Retest(D):
Same chart - Longer Period (3M):
Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
BTC Re-tested Monthly UptrendWe had already broken an uptrend from around $3,200 to the present in September 2022. The price, which has tried to break this trend as resistance many times, has failed every time. What will happen now seems uncertain. If we can successfully move the price above the trend, maybe we have confirmation of the bull season. But until then, it's good to be very, very careful.
Bearish Divergence on Weekly TimeframeThere is a very serious negative divergence already present in the weekly timeframe. If it works, a possible catastrophic decline seems inevitable. If we fall to the target levels, I do not think that the support levels at the technical target can hold the price.
Is BTC still heading to the baseline support?I still think BTC is heading to the baseline support around 12k, I am talking about further down from here below capitulation, moving further into desperation territory, followed by a long consolidation period.
Why? because the downtrend haven't changed yet, together with equities cryptos are in a bear trend IMO.
Bearish points: The 50ma has just crossed above the 200ma, RSI also showing contraction in overbought territory.
The speed of the downfall has changed, but not the direction IMO.
Watch out.
Told you..... but sorry its time to sell now...btc is doomed for 10k sorry...... anyone jumping in is probably going to get rekt. these were my buy signals for the past 3 months. should of gotten in then.
sellers will make sure btc doesnt get above 25k in quarter one. anyway good luck crypto! hodl like your life depended on it.
Cascade of lows. Impulse break downOn the coin, after a strong growth, an interesting cascade of loons was formed.
I consider the impulse breakdown of the cascade after the formation of local trading at the upper level with ideas to collect liquidity below.
I will not enter the entrance when there is activity in the glass, I will not enter from the approach.