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BTC-D

02/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $98,894.77 Last weeks low: $90,786.17 Midpoint: 94,840.47 Last week was all about altcoins as Bitcoin takes a backseat after a the "Trump pump" rally. Consolidating just under the $100K big even level has seen rotation into Ethereum finally and more surprisingly dino-coins such as XRP, LTC and more. XRP has rallied to ATH (+300%) in less that 1 month, the news that Gary Gensler will be stepping down and with that the SEC's tirade on Ripple. The momentum and talk of the space is with XRP for now as it overtakes the Mcap of Tether to go 3rd! This comes at a time where typically BTC profits rotate into ETH and yet a lot of the capital has gone into XRP instead and so Ethereum is still way behind, BTC, SOL, XRP are all at ATH. With the new month beginning we typically see a shaky start to the month, especially after such a strong close. The fear and greed index for BTC is @ 80, that's down from 94 in the week previous (mid November). The drop off is also evident in the BTC.D dropping 3% as alts move up. This week I'm focused on where we are in the cycle, many alts are climbing and of course the $100K event for BTC. I believe we are not anywhere near the cycle top, any on-chain indicator would support that but that does not necessarily mean we aren't close to a local top. A strong bearish divergence has emerged on the weekly and that is cause for concern, overbought RSI high fear and greed and euphoric sentiment on the TL. Any new longs are extremely risky for now (LTF not HTF) without any fresh bullish news events. Price currently at midpoint, hard to tell how deep the monthly open sell-off will be, a quick wick with fast recovery will be bullish but a slow bleed would be more worrisome.
by ProR35
1
SOLANA, Where is the best zone to long? SOLUSDT / 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. The market is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, The price is rejecting the Previous all-time high. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry. If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target: 1- First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation. 2- New all-time high 3- The one standard deviation target is shown in the chart. Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence! Trade safely, Trader Leo.
Long
by BTM-LEO
7
BITCOIN $150k doesn't seem so unrealistic now, does it?Almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below), we made a bold prediction of a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) target at $150000 by early 2025, while the price was still at $60k: This was received with a lot of skepticism at the time but with the price now almost on the $100k psychological barrier, the idea looks more and more realistic. It is time to revisit this chart and made some slight modifications based on the price action that was followed. The price is now off the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci range where it consolidated from March 2024 until October 2024. The enormous rise/ break-out is attributed of course to a large extent on the U.S. elections and the euphoria that followed. We are only 1 month outside this range and the price is already much higher. Last month's candle is very similar to November 2020 and May 2017. In comparison, that was when the most aggressive (parabolic) rallies of those Bull Cycles started. In 2017 from May to December, it was on a 71.5° angle. On the next Cycle from November 2020 to April 2021, it was on a 68.5° angle, i.e. 3° lower. If that's a progression by any means, then we can assume that the 2024 - 2025 parabolic rally could be on a 65.5° angle (-3° from the previous Cycle). That gives a potential target of $300k as early as May 2025, assuming we could have a Double Top Cycle as in 2021. In any case, it will be interesting to see if the current Cycle also makes a blow-off top (like the last two) outside/ above the Channel Up that started back on the December 2013 High. Unrealistic as it may seem now, the $150k Target is very plausible technically as it is just below the top of that multi-year Channel Up. If the $300k blow-off top (red Arcs) comes, then all the better, but a long-term investor may consider to start taking profits while the price is inside the Channel Up and starts being cautious once we break above it in the red Arcs. So what do you think? Do you view $150k as technically realistic as this pattern indicates? And if so, can Bitcoin even make a blow-off top near $300k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
21
Watching for 93.5K supportMorning folks, Last time we've taken a pause, because of Holiday and some uncertainty as market could form three different patterns. Now the amount of candidates is reduced, so, we could speak more specifically. In fact, minor upside action that has happened last week, increase chances for upside butterfly. But, since action is relatively slow, we prefer to use lowest Fib support to consider position taking. 93.5K looks to be OK for this. Besides, this is trend line of broken triangle. Invalidation point of this scenario is lows at 90.5K level. So, not too big risk. If BTC breaks it - we get deeper downside action of a larger scale. In fact, this will erase the butterfly. Upside target is the same 102K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Is a deeper Bitcoin correction coming?The price has already lost several important lows, lost its long-term ascending trend line and has taken a corrective guard. #Bitcoin may need some rest or correction. Most likely view: Until Bitcoin consolidates above $96,000, we cannot be optimistic about the rise. For now, I have taken profit on all trades and am ready for the US market to open today to see if we will continue the decline or if the market will make another upward turn with strong and high-volume candles.
Short
by Reza_kahe
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue to rise?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the downtrend channel to fail. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. This path will continue until the bottom of the channel and the specified support range. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. According to a report by Fox Business, informed sources have indicated that the new U.S administration might grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to oversee certain digital assets. The CFTC’s expanded role could include regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and cash markets tied to digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are categorized as commodities. These changes could diminish the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) influence in this sector. Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a staunch crypto critic, has supported granting CFTC more authority over Bitcoin, deeming it a commercial commodity. In March, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange KuCoin, also classifying Ethereum as a commodity. As of November 2024, MicroStrategy owns over 380,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for nearly 2% of the total global supply. This Virginia-based software intelligence company first began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 and has since expanded its holdings to 15 times those of its closest corporate competitor, Marathon Digital. Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2024, ranks fourth among public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Around the same time, Tesla also started accepting Bitcoin as payment for its vehicles. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed leasing the country’s 170 volcanoes to Bitcoin miners, granting them access to the geothermal energy. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $740,000 by April 2028 based on historical trends. Morehead tied this projection to the election of Donald Trump as a pro-crypto U.S. president and a Congress supportive of digital assets. He also highlighted that only 5% of the global financial wealth is invested in blockchain-related assets, suggesting significant growth potential for Bitcoin. In his letter, he wrote, “Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still like a seed sprouting in the soil.” He added that the regulatory challenges faced by blockchain over the past 15 years have now transformed into golden opportunities. This optimistic outlook aligns with Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin fund, which has delivered strong performance. Launched in 2013, the fund has achieved a 131,000% return over 11 years, excluding fees, primarily due to Bitcoin’s 1,000-fold price increase since the fund purchased it at $74 per BTC. Morehead emphasized that “it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin.” He added, “Some investors may think that Bitcoin’s doubling this year means they missed the opportunity, but this is a flawed mindset.” Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sparked a debate about meme coins in the crypto space. In a tweet, he criticized meme coins, stating, “I’m not against memes, but meme coins have gotten a bit bizarre. Let’s build real applications using blockchain.” Meanwhile, Hong Kong has proposed tax exemptions for cryptocurrency activities, aiming to compete with Singapore as a leading financial hub and attract major investors and asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the exemptions cover profits from digital assets, private credits, overseas properties, and carbon credits. Patrick Yip from Deloitte China noted that this initiative could bolster Hong Kong’s financial industry as family offices in the city allocate up to 20% of their portfolios to digital assets. During the trading week of November 25–29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $138 million in capital outflows after seven consecutive weeks of inflows. Performance of the top-traded ETFs on Friday: • Total: $320 million • BlackRock: $137 million • Fidelity:
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Ethereum $ETH/USDT - 200D SMA Bull Regime DetectionThis indicator helps traders identify market regimes using the powerful combination of 50 and 200 SMAs. It provides clear visual signals and detailed metrics for trend-following strategies. Key Features: - Dual SMA System (50/200) for regime identification - Colour-coded candles for easy trend visualisation - Metrics dashboard Core Signals: - Bullish Regime: Price > 200 SMA - Bearish Regime: Price < 200 SMA - Additional confirmation: 50 SMA Cross-over or Cross-under (golden cross or death cross)
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by igreycrypto
Bitcoin's historical 868 day low to high cycleIt appears that every bull market lasts 868 days. August 2015 to Dec 2017 - Bitcoin did a 78x growing from $194 to $19.1k Dec 2018 to November 2021 - Bitcoin did a 20x growing from $3.1k to $69k November 2022 to present - Bitcoin has grown from $15k to $99k with more expected. Following this 868 day pattern the bull market is expected to end in late March 2025 roughly 110 days away. The question is, does BlackRock change things? Does America's promise to buy 250,000 BTC a year for 5 years change things? The big money is coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoMitchX
BTC Secondary Trend. Gann trend fan 2024-2026. TriangleLogarithm. Time frame is 3 days. Nothing new, everything is the same as previously shown in 2022 (the main trend), targets, logic and so on. Major trend . BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halvin g 1 07 2022 In the present ideas, at the moment now clearly showed this triangle in the range of dynamic support/resistance of the Gann fan (that is, the development of the uptrend phase participation to distribution). Vertical lines. The site does not display vertical dates if for a long period, Before publication the dates (time zones) are displayed on the chart, after publication they are not. These are the times of trend reversal zones. Local trend and this reversal zone. BTC/USD Triangle. Medium term and local work 07 06 2024
Long
by SpartaBTC
1
Bitcoin: Just Getting Started Again?Bitcoin has retraced to the 90K support (anticipated in my previous article) and is now attempting to retest the 100K high for the second time. Markets are mostly RANDOM, which means there are countless scenarios than can unfold from here. In this article I will focus on just TWO possibilities that I am anticipating for the coming week. The market chooses the outcome and it is our job to use available information to identify the market's intent. For me, that means using price action confirmation to improve probability and quantify my risk for whatever type of trade I am interested in pursuing. The amount of risk you are willing to accept is your responsibility from here. The first scenario is the Captain Obvious one. Price breaks the high of the yesterday's inside bar and tests the 100K level over the coming week. While this may seem great, IF there is no major catalyst behind this, the chances of a FAILED HIGH are significant. The previous retrace serves as a sign that momentum is slowing in general. IF a failed high (double top) appears and confirms, the next retrace can be substantial to the tune of mid 80Ks. This is not a forecast, it is a potential RISK you must accept from current levels. The other thing to consider is even if 100K is cleared, what potential does it have relative to this risk? With that in mind, if I were to do anything with this scenario it would only be on small time frames, because that is the best way to avoid the large magnitude risk while participating in whatever is left of this move. The second scenario is the retrace to the high 80's low 90K area for a failed low. This is more in line with the potential consolidation that appears to be developing (sub Wave 4 of 5?). IF Bitcoin offers this opportunity, along with the confirmation, it has a greater potential than the first scenario (inside bar). The arrows on the chart along with the lines illustrate the failed low scenario. This can be pursued on day trade as well as swing trade time frames. The confirmation at the second low is the key to entering this while keeping risk within reason. A few things to keep in mind about this environment: the catalyst behind this momentum is the U.S. election. Market cap is at all time highs for this sector. Most of the large cap alt coins have reached major resistance levels on weekly and monthly time frames, but nowhere near all time highs. The "experts" are once again all coming out claiming "this is just the beginning". A market testing major resistance levels AFTER sharp break outs is usually NOT "the beginning". In my opinion times like this are ideal for reducing risk or taking profits. I will always suggest this at cycle highs (just like in 2021). "Great" investing opportunities require long periods of WAITING and watching a market go lower and be completely off the mainstream radar. In this space, cycle lows can take a YEAR or TWO to play out. Alt coins are NOT long term assets, they are just a gamble. When asset bubble money flows, it often makes its way to complete nonsense which can be NFTs. Keep an eye in that area for the risk appetite overflow. This is NOT a game of getting "rich" as every single video on Youtube is claiming. It is a game of how much RISK you are willing to take. If you have no problem with a healthy retrace giving back 20%+, then by all means do what you have to do. IF you can't handle losing the money, then you are in the wrong game. There are infinitely more people in position to get rich from this entire space BEFORE you. Markets CYCLE from low to high, etc. Just KNOW the RISK associated with the part of the cycle we are in. Hint: When 5 waves can be counted, it usually means there is a greater chance of a coming corrective move. Just ask all the geniuses who bought the highs back in 21. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
This volatility period is expected to last until December 4th Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1M chart) If it rises further, it is expected to rise to around 2 (106178.85). If it falls, you should check if it is supported around 1.618 (89050.0). - (1W chart) The slope of the StochRSI EMA seems to be almost horizontal. It seems that the initialization of the StochRSI indicator is not far away. When the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone, the point to watch is where it is supported. - (1D chart) The key is whether it can be supported near the HA-High indicator point of 96372.40 and rise above the BW(100) indicator point of 98892.0. If it fails to rise, 1st: M-Signal on the 1D chart 2nd: 87.8K-89K 3rd: 79.9K-80.9K You need to check where it is supported among the 1st and 3rd areas above. - This volatility period is expected to continue until December 4th, so be careful when trading. If BTC continues to move sideways during this volatility period, altcoins are likely to show an upward trend. - Have a nice time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend. Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the uptrend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Btc Dom - There's still a long way to goCRYPTOCAP:BTC Dominance 1W; Below is my chart of the Bitcoin Dom chart, which I have been pointing to 61.61% for a long time and I expect it to rise to a maximum of 62%. With the return from 61.53%, the market has now started to smile. What's next? There is strong weekly support at 56%. This level drops to 55% on the monthly. This is a strong support and with its theme, it will make a retracement upwards. I know you don't even want to hear anything negative when everything is going well, but if we ignore the facts, what's the difference from emotional thinking? There is a quote by David Hume that I love and use as an example in my life: “ If we stop here and go no further, why have we come this far? ” In short, I want to say that there is still a long way to go for Btc Dom. I will not be surprised if this bull period happens again if we see the 72% level that I have been pointing to for a long time. Of course, we are talking about probabilities here. That's why all charts have a 50% margin of error. If one day you see someone or some people telling you something that is 100% certain, stay away from them. #Btc #Bitcoin #dominance #bullish
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ugurtash