EURGBP Will the Support hold?Great signal out of the EURGBP pair last time we analyzed it (June 25, see chart below), as the price hit and even surpassed our 0.8550 Target:
Following that High, the pair collapsed and is about to test Support 1, which technically is Lower Lows region for the long-term Channel Down. As long as the 1D RSI Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will look for a buy on Support 1 and target the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.8530.
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Britishpound
Navigating September 2024: British Pound Trading ForecastAs we approach the close of Q3 2024, key pivot levels on the Camarilla indicator suggest pivotal moments ahead for the British Pound. The currency's performance at these levels could dictate the trading strategy for the upcoming period.
Camarilla Insights and Strategic Levels:
The British Pound reached a significant juncture at the $1.3220 level, identified as the R5 resistance and a prime profit-taking zone during Q1 2024. This level is now expected to serve as a focal point for institutional traders' actions, oscillating between profit-taking distributions and potential accumulations for new long positions.
September 2024 Trading Strategy:
Anticipated Long Positions: Observations suggest a potential buildup of long positions at the S3 level of September 2024, which also aligns with August 2024's R3 and Q3's R4. This setup indicates that if the price approaches this level, it could trigger buying activities. However, establishing long positions would be prudent only upon confirmation that the S3 level holds firmly. Should the price fail to sustain this level, a cautious approach would be to wait for it to reach the lower S4 level before considering any long trade entries.
Short Trading Opportunities: Conversely, if the price escalates to the R3 level, corresponding to the R5 profit-taking level of Q3 2024, it may suggest that the market is entering a distribution phase. In this scenario, traders might look for opportunities to initiate short positions, targeting subsequent support levels at S3 or S4 depending on the price movement’s momentum.
Long-Term Outlook and Price Targets:
The pattern of higher lows since September 2022 primes the GBP for a potentially bullish trajectory. A break above the previous highs of July 2023 at $1.3150 could set the stage for an aggressive bullish run, aiming for a resistance target at $1.3650.
Conclusion:
The current positioning and historical pivot levels provide a complex but navigable trading landscape for the British Pound as we move into the latter part of 2024. Traders should closely monitor these critical levels for indications of market sentiment shifts, ensuring strategies are aligned with the prevailing market phase, whether accumulation or distribution.
Stay tuned for updates as these pivotal moments unfold, offering opportunities for astute traders to capitalize on the inherent volatility of currency markets.
GBP/USD Strategic Insights: Q3 Breakouts and Q4 ProjectionsAnalyzing GBP/USD: A Journey Through Accumulation, Breakouts, and Forecasting
Q2 2024: The Accumulation Phase
During the second quarter of 2024, the British Pound entered a pronounced accumulation phase. Institutional buyers were actively engaged, positioning their trades to capitalize on future movements. This period set the stage for subsequent price actions and was crucial in understanding the currency's resilience.
Q3 2024: Strategic Movements and False Breakouts
As the third quarter commenced, the GBP/USD experienced a deceptive breakout to the downside, aligning perfectly with the Camarilla pivot support levels at S3 and S4. This false move highlighted the strength of these levels as key support zones, underscoring why initiating short trades—common among retail traders—was strategically questionable at this juncture.
By June 2024, the GBP/USD climbed towards $1.2800, briefly entering a distribution/accumulation phase, which prepped the market for an anticipated bullish continuation.
Mid-Q3 Breakout and Profit Realization
By mid-August 2024, propelled by institutional trading, GBP/USD convincingly broke past the R4 Camarilla level at $1.2950. This breakout targeted the R5 level at $1.3200, identified as the optimal take-profit point. This movement marked a significant transition from the previous range-bound market conditions, showcasing the effectiveness of strategic pivot level monitoring.
Anticipating Q4 2024: Calm Before the Next Move
Looking ahead to September 2024, expectations are set for subdued trading activity, with the GBP/USD likely oscillating between $1.3000 and $1.3200. This forecasted lull suggests another accumulation/distribution phase that could serve as a precursor to more definitive movements in the fourth quarter.
Conclusion and Forward Outlook
The trajectory of GBP/USD points towards stability in the near term, with potential gearing up for another significant movement as we approach the end of 2024. Traders should monitor these pivotal levels closely, as they offer valuable insights and strategic entry points. Given the currency’s recent history and the robust support demonstrated at key Camarilla levels, a bullish bias may be advisable heading into the next quarter, with careful attention to any shifts that might suggest a different course.
Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to navigate through these dynamic market phases and extract actionable insights to enhance our trading strategies.
GBPJPY Confirmed long-term buy opportunity.The GBPJPY pair has recovered the late July sell-off and inserted again back within the 2-year Channel Up and even closed the last 2 weeks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The latter technically confirmed the bottom and the start of the new Bullish Leg.
The first Bullish Leg of the Channel Up reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, the second aimed even higher, so our 218.00 Target towards the peak of the Sine Wave appears to technically be a modest long-term Target.
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GBPUSD Strongest sell signal since MarchThe GBPUSD pair gave us an excellent sell entry exactly 1 month ago (July 23, see chart below) and easily hit our 1.2790 Target:
Yesterday it reached the top of its 10-month Channel Up and technically that is the new Higher High and the strongest sell signal since March 08. That Higher High rejection initiated a Bearish Leg that bottomed just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Low.
As a result, we expect a new medium-term correction (Bearish Leg) to extend to 1.26000 (just below the new 0.618 Fib).
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GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe British Pound gains significant traction as the UK Office for National Statistics reports a rebound in Retail Sales for July, with monthly and annual figures rising by 0.5% and 1.4% respectively. This momentum comes ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) crucial September monetary policy meeting, where decisions could hinge on the sharp decline in service sector inflation and a surprising drop in the Unemployment Rate, signalling an expanding economy.
On the US front, jobless claims continue to fall for the second consecutive week, challenging the earlier Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that suggested a weaker labor market. Market speculation for large rate cuts has eased, yet expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve decision in September remain strong, with policymakers signalling comfort with upcoming interest-rate cuts.
With these recent developments, the GBPUSD remains in a volatile state. The rebound in UK retail sales and the positive signals from the US labor market suggests that there is potential for further gains for the British pound. However, the BoE's policy decision and the Fed's stance on interest rates will be key factors to watch in the coming weeks.
How will buyers and sellers position themselves in the coming week?
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will buyers break above $1.29500 next week? Watch this video for key trades this week. Join the discussion for updates on GBP/USD trading. Stay tuned for more content. Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
GBPCAD Waiting for the 1D MA200 to confirm the bottom.The GBPCAD pair broke this week below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is (including today) on a 2 day green streak. However this is technically not convincing for us to buy as despite holding the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, it is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has confirmed the major Higher Lows (bottoms) of the 11-month Channel Up.
In fact, it was a similar Internal Higher Lows trend-line that broke on April 01 2024 and despite a short-term rebound, broke downwards to confirm a bottom on the 1D MA200. As a result, we are waiting for that ideal technical opportunity to long and target 1.8000.
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Hedge Funds' Sterling Bet: A Risky Gamble?A surge in bullish bets on the British pound sterling by hedge funds and other asset managers has ignited concerns about a potential market upheaval. Aggressive positioning on the currency has reached a 10-year high, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction should the Bank of England (BoE) decide to cut interest rates this week.
The data, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reveals a dramatic increase in net-long positions on sterling over the past month. This bullish sentiment has been fueled by a combination of factors, including relatively high interest rates, signs of economic improvement, and the perceived stability of the UK government. As a result, the pound has gained nearly 1% against the US dollar since the start of the year and reached a one-year high earlier this month.
However, the market's optimism may be misplaced. The BoE's monetary policy decision on Thursday remains a significant uncertainty, with market pricing indicating an equal chance of a rate hike or a cut. If the central bank opts to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, it could have a severe impact on the pound.
The heightened bullish sentiment among investors has created a scenario where even a hint of dovishness from the BoE could trigger a rapid unwinding of positions and a sharp decline in sterling.
The potential for a significant market correction has prompted concerns among analysts and investors. Some argue that the current level of bullishness is excessive and that the market is underpricing the risk of a rate cut. They caution that a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to significant losses for those holding long positions on the pound.
As the market awaits the BoE's decision, volatility is expected to remain high. The outcome of the meeting will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the pound and the broader global financial markets. If the central bank surprises the market with a rate cut, it could be a wake-up call for investors who have become overly complacent about the currency's prospects.
Ultimately, the recent surge in bullish sterling bets highlights the inherent risks of relying on market consensus. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the current level of optimism surrounding the pound raises questions about the sustainability of the currency's strength. As the old adage goes, "buy low, sell high," but in this case, investors may be finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
GBPJPY Correction technically over. Buy opportunity.The GBPJPY pair is currently on a 3-week correction, the strongest and longest since the one that ended on the week of December 11 2023. That was also the last time the pair closed a 1W candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As the long-term pattern is a 22-month Channel Up, every 1W candle closing below the 1D MA50 is a buy opportunity. The last Higher High was priced on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the first 1W closing below the 1D MA50. As a result we treat this as a new long-term buy opportunity with our Target at 210.000.
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GBPUSD Sell signal targeting the 1D MA200The GBPUSD pair almost hit the top of its 10-month Channel Up and immediatelly got rejected. The subsequent pull-back is so far restrained within the (dotted) Channel Up that uses the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support.
The previous such Channel Up, essentially the first Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up, topped at +6.00% (which is where the current rally sits as well) and a 6 week pull-back saw it test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, the R/R favors heavily going short at the moment. Our Target is 1.2790 (exactly on the 0.382 Fib).
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GBPNZD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.The GBPNZD pair is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 7-month Channel Up and has already completed a +4.40% rise since its recent Higher Low. That is the exact rise % that the previous two Bullish Legs of the Channel achieved.
As a result this is close to the most optimal sell signal we can get. Both previous Bearish Legs that followed such top sell signals, reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, our short-term Target on this pair is 2.09500.
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EURGBP - Possible Short OpportunityEURGBP is in a downtrend on higher timeframes and now, in my opinion, is starting a corrective move on lower timeframes after having broken the previous low at 0.85.
We will have to wait for confirmations, but I believe that we will have a short opportunity, in the retest of the 0.85 level, or higher on the major downtrendline/SMMA, I drew on the chart the 2 possibilities that I believe are most likely.
If we get the confirmations I will update the idea with my entry into the trade.
GBPJPY Bearish Robbery Plan to Steal the moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist GBPJPY Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 3h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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GBPAUD Hit our previous target, now sets course for 1.87250.The GBPAUD pair is trading almost exactly as we expected it to on our most recent analysis (June 04, see chart below), as after an initial rise, it got rejected on the Lower Highs Zone and declined to hit the 1.89100 Support (which was our Target) again:
It is at the moment on a rebound, which according to the October - November 2023 fractal that we believe is replicating, should be the last before a final test on the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line.
As a result, we will sell again after a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, and target 1.87250 (Higher Lows trend-line).
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GBPCAD: Sell opportunity !!! (Details on caption)Well, the price hit the HTF FVG and shifted the market structure in the hourly chart, then respected the bearish FVG and created the bearish order block.
Now we can expect the price to trade to the bearish order block and then continue the bearish move, in this scenario, we need LTF confirmation for entry.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/07/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
GBPUSD Buy Alert: 400 Pip Opportunity in a Quiet Market 🚀 GBPUSD Buy Alert: 400 Pip Opportunity in a Quiet Market – Act Now! 🚀
In this timely video, we're stepping into a buy position on GBPUSD during a quiet market. With some news expected for GBP in about 6 hours, we're seeing a shift in sentiment where almost no one is in a buy. This is GREAT news for us if we're looking to catch a potential 400 pip move.
We'll cover:
Analysis of the current quiet market conditions
Insight into the upcoming GBP news and its potential impact
The extreme bias indicating we could be at the bottom of a 400 pip leg up
My strategy for entering now and holding for a swing trade
Join me as I break down this exciting trade setup and show you how to capitalize on this unique opportunity. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more real-time trading insights. Let's capture those pips together! 🚀💹 And remember to hit the Boost Button on this video to support our Trading View community!
Disclaimer: Forex trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Carefully consider your financial situation and risk tolerance before entering any trade. Always perform your own research and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor if needed.
Congrats Traders! GBPCHF Alert Pushing 200 Pips!🎉 Congrats Traders! GBPCHF Alert Pushing 200 Pips – Let's Ride to 1.16736! 🚀
Congratulations to all the traders who caught my alert on GBPCHF! We're now pushing an impressive 200 pips, and we're still in the trade. In this video, I'll guide you on how to manage this winning position using Darvas Box with my custom settings to determine the optimal exit point.
We'll cover:
Current progress and market conditions for GBPCHF
How to use Darvas Box to identify pullback and exit points
My analysis and why I expect this trade to hit the target of 1.16736
Risk management strategies to protect your gains
Join me as we navigate this exciting trade and aim for the ultimate target. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading alerts and expert analysis. Let's capture those final pips together! 🚀💹
EURGBP Overbought RSI, buy opportunity.The EURGBP pair hit on June 14 the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line0 of the 7-month (dashed) Channel Down and is on the rebound. At the same time, the 1D RSI got oversold (below 30.00) and every time it did so in the past 12 months, it started a strong bullish reversal.
More specifically the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Down reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level to form its Lower High. As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting 0.85500 (0.618 Fib).
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GBPCAD About to test the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The GBPCAD pair is on the latest Bearish Leg of the underlying Channel Up (blue) pattern and is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 14. Once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect a continuation of the Bearish Leg all the way to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
Since 2023, -2.66% to -3.08% pull-backs have been common on this pair. As a result, we are looking towards the minimum -2.66% decline, which gives us a Target of 1.71500 and will make a technical Higher Low on the Channel.
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