GBPJPY Strong bullish break out inside the Channel Up.GBPJPY is having its strongest (1d) candle today in almost 18 months.
The main pattern is a Channel Up and this rise is extending its new bullish wave.
The previous one retested the MA50 (1d) after crossing over it and the resumed the uptrend to peak on a +8.70% rise.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next MA50 (1d) test.
Targets:
1. 204.500 (+8.70% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) formed a Bullish Cross 9 days ago, the 3rd inside this 5month Channel Up, which confirms that we are on a bullish wave.
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Britishpound
GBPJPY: Channel Up rally has started.The GBPJPY pair is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.167, MACD = -0.620, ADX = 31.719) as so far it remains under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which are very close to each other. Basically today we are having a clean technical rejection on those two. In spite of this, the prevailing pattern is a Channel Up and we have already started the 3rd bullish wave. The two prior started after a 1D RSI Bullish Cross and the shortest one has been +7.34%. We are aiming for this extension (TP = 201.900).
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GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Why GBP Is the Alpha Wolf: Decoding the Market's Next Big MoveThe COT strategy has revealed potent setups once again. The codes are unlocking the market’s next likely moves. What you’re about to read is no ordinary analysis—this is how the game is truly played.
This week, GBP and CHF stand out. EUR and NZD also look promising. So, why focus on GBP & CHF? The answer is strength. While EUR & NZD took out their April lows, GBP & CHF did not. The strong remain strong. Align yourself with the wolf leading the pack.
Consider GBP. It’s more than just a setup—it's a symphony of signals:
Code #1: COT Indexes
Commercials: 100% Bullish
Small Specs: 100% Bearish
The crowd is fading into weakness. The pros are betting on strength.
Code #2: Small Spec Positioning
The masses are nearly maxed out on shorts. History tells us their extreme is our opportunity. We fade the crowd.
Code #3: Valuation
Using the WillVal tool:
GBP is undervalued relative to Gold, Treasuries, and USD. This is a fundamental misalignment—the market is screaming 'buy.' The code agrees.
Code #4: True Seasonal
Seasonal trends align. GBP’s true path is bullish up to Jan/Feb. Time and trend converge.
The final pieces of the puzzle:
Accumulation: Insider activity shows heavy buying pressure.
Weekly %R: Sitting in the buy zone.
Rate of Change (ROC): Near the bottoming zone. Strength is brewing.
So why GBP over the others? Comparative Strength. GBP & CHF resisted weakness while EUR & NZD faltered. The strong wolf will not be dragged down by the weak. This isn’t a trade—it’s a strategy rooted in probabilities, not guesswork.
Triggers have fired. I’m already long. But remember: this isn’t an invitation to blindly enter. Fundamentals identify the opportunity, technicals time the precision strike. Discipline is the edge.
The question is simple: What will you do with this information?
Will you continue wandering the Matrix, chasing shadows in the market? Or will you learn to see the code that governs it all?
The choice is yours. I can show you how deep this rabbit hole goes. DM me if you’re ready to truly learn how to trade commodity futures like a pro.
There’s no turning back once you see the truth.
GBPUSD Channel Up on (1h) bottomed.The GBPUSD pair is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price made contact with its bottom today and is giving a buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.2800 (+1.50% rise, same as the last bullish wave).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) hit the same level as on November 26th. That was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up.
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EURGBP: Channel Down and 1D MA50 rejection pushing it lower.EURGBP is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.920, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 31.550) as it failed to cross over the 1D MA50 and it remains on a LH inside the Channel Down. The weakest decline upon a 1D MA50 rejection has been -1.45%. That is what we're aiming for (TP = 0.82545).
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GBP/USD – Breakout and Retest SetupWe’ve broken below the support zone, which has now turned into a new resistance level. If the price returns to this level, we could see sellers reenter the market and push the price lower.
Strategy: Watch for confirmation at the retest of this resistance before entering a short position. Stay cautious and manage your risk.
GBPJPY First 1D Golden Cross after 19 months. Strong BUY.The GBPJPY pair is forming today a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such pattern in exactly 19 months (April 21 2023). Naturally this is a huge bullish signal alone, as technically the Golden Cross calls for upside action. But more specifically for this pair's price action, it indicates the high probability of an immediate aggressive push as the current formation is very similar to the April 2023 one.
As you can see, both were trading within a Channel Up up to the moment of the Golden Cross, having started after a 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test. The 1D CCI trading on Higher Lows below -100.00 (oversold) is a confirmation that the price Channel Up breaks aggressively to the upside.
The previous Golden Cross pushed the price just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, to a +18.40% rise. Throughout this time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting the uptrend.
As a result, we turn long now on GBPJPY, targeting 215.000 (just above the 3.0 Fib extension).
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GBPUSD: Buy signal at the bottom of the Rising Wedge.GBPUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.906, MACD = -0.012, ADX = 45.336) as it almost reached the HL trendline of the Rising Wedge. The technical bottom should start forming now and with the RSI hitting the oversold limit (30.000) on Friday, we can claim that there is a significant upside behind this with limited risk. The similar bottom of October 3rd 2023 targeted initially the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That is our target this time also (TP = 1.03080).
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GBPNZD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.GBPNZD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.440, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 26.806), trading right over its 1D MA50. If broken, it will be the validation of the new bearish wave of the 1 year Channel Down. The 1D RSI is forming the very same Arc pattern as the May bearish wave. Upon validation, we will get short and aim for the 1D MA200, over the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 2.12500).
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GBPUSD Start thinking of buying. Will find support soon.The GBPUSD pair couldn't have given us a better sell signal last time we looked into it (October 09, see chart below) as it broke first below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) then the Bullish Megaphone and is very close to our 1.2550 Target:
We are approaching the stage where selling becomes far riskier than buying as the pair is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the September - October 2023 fractal (that has been the basis of our previous sell strategy), formed the bottom and initiated a Channel Up to the (orange) 0.618 Fib.
Even the 1D MACD indicates that we are probably a few days before this bottom is formed and will be confirmed with a Bullish Cross.
As a result, we are prepared to take this long and target 1.3100 (the 0.618 Fib).
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EURGBP Channel Down but short-term rebound expected.The EURGBP pair is trading within a 1-year Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. Three days ago the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern and rebounded. This was also on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which based on the previous Bearish Leg, has high probabilities of sustaining a Bullish Leg.
Assuming the symmetry with January - April 2024 holds, we turn bullish now on this pair, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.84375.
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GBPAUD: Strong buy opportunity for a final push.GBPAUD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.562, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 38.182) as the price has pulled back to the bottom of the bullish wave of the 1 year Channel Up. That is technically the final buy opportunity before the rally to the top of the Channel. All prior bullish waves made a rise of at least +4.46%. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, the top of the +4.46% range will be our target (TP = 1.99500).
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GBPJPY Channel Up driving the price to 210.000GBPJPY is trading inside a 1hour Channel Up.
The price is currently between the 1hour MA50 and MA200, consolidating after the most recent Higher Low on October 31st.
This is a technical buy opportunity directed towards the top of the Channel Up.
The last two bottom rallies rose by +3.15%. Buy and target 201.000 (+3.15%).
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GBPJPY SELLAs in our previous anylisis we had told that price will go for previous high to be touched and price had done the same and as market sentiment has changed price is moving in to bearish movment and we predict that price will return to its support level of 196 and lower than that so we are at a bearish run for today and tomorrow
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days.
The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance.
The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern.
As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone.
All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850.
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GBP/NZD Hits Highest Level Since 2016: Is a Move Down Ahead?The GBP/NZD is currently testing its highest price in recent years, nearing the significant resistance level of 2.1900. This area has served as a notable barrier since 2016 and often sees increased selling interest. The price action in this zone, combined with the emergence of a harmonic pattern, suggests a potential reversal or correction. Furthermore, recent price movements, particularly the candles from October 30 and 31 breaking below the low of October 29, indicate rising bearish momentum, reinforcing the possibility of selling pressure in the near term.
Bat Harmonic Pattern Structure
A Bat harmonic pattern is developing in the GBP/NZD chart, providing additional reversal signals near historical resistance:
Point X: The starting point of the move, at a previous significant high.
Point A: The bottom of the initial correction.
Point B: The price retracement to the 38.2% level of the XA extension.
Point C: The second correction reaching 88.2% of the AB move.
Point D (Potential Reversal Zone): Near 2.1847, aligning with the 88.6% level of the XA extension and the resistance at 2.1900, indicating an optimal area for potential sell opportunities.
The Bat pattern suggests a crucial resistance level where buyers might struggle, especially considering the proximity to historical highs.
Price Action Analysis and Sell Signals
Recent price action further highlights selling interest:
Selling Pressure at Highs: The October 30 and 31 candles broke below the October 29 low, signalling possible exhaustion of the bullish trend and indicating increased seller interest. This behaviour raises warning signals for a potential short-to-medium-term reversal.
Potential Move Down Ahead
Given the convergence of the harmonic pattern and historical resistance, a short strategy is advisable between 2.1800 and 2.1900. Here are critical points to consider for GBP/NZD:
Potential Sell Zone : The resistance between 2.1800 and 2.1900 represents a prime short zone, combining the D point of the Bat with historical resistance.
Primary Target : The support around 2.1400 corresponds to the B region of the Bat formation, typically the first target when trading harmonic patterns.
Secondary Target : Should a breakout continue, the next significant support is near 2.1000, coinciding with the C level of the Bat formation.
Traders should remain cautious of any breaks above 2.1900, as this could indicate a breakout above a crucial resistance level on the daily chart.
Conclusion
The GBP/NZD pair is in a complex technical setup, presenting potential opportunities for short positions due to the confluence of the Bat harmonic pattern and the historical resistance at 2.1900. With signs of selling pressure evident in the recent price action, especially following the candles on October 30 and 31, traders should closely monitor this region as it may signal the onset of a correction.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Support test and possible ignition move in the EURGBP.EUR/GBP is sitting in a significant support area on the daily chart, marked by a descending trendline (which was broken in yesterday’s candle) and a horizontal level of support that comes all the way from 2022. Below are some key points about the pair at the moment:
Horizontal Support at Lowest time since 2022: The orange line on the chart marks a critical support area, coinciding with the lowest price recorded since 2022. This horizontal support suggests a strong turning point where sellers seem to be losing steam, which could indicate a possible reversal if the price remains above this level.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: On September 30, in the daily chart a Bullish Engulfing pattern has recently formed after the price touched the support area. This pattern, characterized by a bullish candle completely engulfing the previous bearish candle, signals renewed interest from buyers and potential bullish momentum in the coming days
Break of downtrend line: On September 30th, EURGBP showed the beginning of a break of a downtrend line that has been in place since August 8th. This also indicates a potential increase in buying interest in this region.
Fibonacci Levels as Potential Targets: The 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels stand out as potential targets for an upward correction. The red zone near the 0.5 level (around 0.8460) is an important resistance point, which could serve as a target if the price maintains its recovery.
Resistance and Support: The orange line at the 0.8339 level represents a critical support zone. On the other hand, the region near 0.8460 (0.5 Fibonacci level) is a potential resistance and target for buyers if the bullish momentum continues.
Considering these factors, an upward move could occur if the price remains above the support, with a possible target for levels near 0.8460. Alternatively, a break below the horizontal support and the descending trendline could trigger renewed selling pressure, driving the price to lower levels.
Watch for NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday:
Traders interested in EUR/GBP should also keep an eye on the upcoming US NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due out on Friday, November 1. This economic indicator affects the dollar directly, but it can also impact global market sentiment, influencing pairs such as EUR/GBP. A strong NFP reading could lead to an overall strengthening of the dollar, which could indirectly affect the euro and pound, while a weak reading could have the opposite effect.
Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested.
GBPUSD Channel Up emerging. Short term buy.GBPUSD recently broke to the upside the former Channel Down of October and a Channel Up emerged from it.
It already formed a Golden Cross (1h) today, technically a very bullish pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.3035 (top of Channel Up)
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on low enough levels again to justify a technical buy.
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