Rolls Royce Turnaround Storygaining bottom feeder attention in social media trading sentiment
company has long history, thousands of bagholders create downward price pressure
upside is strong name recognition, and government subsidy & too big to fail dynamics
major catalyst needed to reverse the multi year bearish price cycle
Brexit
GBPJPY - RETEST OF BREXT REJECTION ZONEThe $GBPJPY has been on an absolute tear lately & because of that there's a massive bullish continuation association with the pair. Being a contrarian (as most traders are) whenever I see & hear this sort of talk I automatically start looking for shorts.
If we venture up to the weekly timeframe you'll notice that we have once again retested the 2016 BREXIT rejection zone which up to this point has not been violated. In fact, the past few times we tested this zone, price retraced all the way back down to the lows of the channel.
Now I have no idea if that will happen this time, but what I can tell you is that we're about halfway complete a classic reversal pattern which means we should keep our eyes open for some sort of relief and move lower.
Please hit that LIKE button if you enjoyed the video & also don't be shy about leaving me any questions or comments below as I do read through each and every one of them
Wish you a great trading week - Akil
Basing Formation & Positional WarfareThe concept of a the basing formation compared to that of positional warfare, is rather interesting as we were essentially tracking a cone of volatility. This subtle break has done significant technical damage (i.e. attack on late sellers and correct use of support), and will often be rewarded with complete liberation.
Here it would also be worth thinking about order flow and blockades. In positional warfare the plan would be to let sellers extend the blockade lows, and as late sellers follow through, trap them with countermeasures. See the following chart, which is instructive from beginning to end of how to 'trap' an opponent, and which I often consider as the stem game for this new philosophy of charting.
A very plausible idea; however with the immobility of sellers at the lows greater than ever after we expanded our 'cone of volatility'. Buyers have played very economically, the occupation of 1.380x will be a very bullish signal and imply painstaking exploitation of sellers. To force capitulation and trigger sellers to regroup we will need to breach through the 50MA.
GBPUSD: Teases monthly support line amid Brexit, covid doldrumsGBPUSD pays a little heed to the price-negative catalysts during early Monday. In doing so, the cable ignores confirmation of a four-week delay in the UK’s unlock as well as an anticipated bumpy road for the next round of Brexit talks as EU policymakers pushed Britain to respect previously agreed deal over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. The corrective pullback seems technical as a monthly ascending support line tests the pair sellers around 1.4085. Even if the sterling bears dominate past-1.4085, 1.4010-4000 area comprising 50-day SMA, May 13 low and April’s top will be the key to watch.
Meanwhile, further upside could aim for 1.4180 immediate hurdle ahead of challenging the 1.4200 crucial resistance. It’s worth noting that a daily closing beyond 1.4200 needs a daily close beyond the latest top surrounding 1.4265 to aim for the 1.4300 and the 1.4370 numbers to the north. Overall, GBP/USD remains firm but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
EURGBP - REAL SIMPLE4hr timeframe says it all here.
Just look at that mess. No one should be touching it within this zone. What is interesting, check out the volume spike when price most recently touched the resistance.
To me, that would suggest we've more chance of breaking bearish than bullish. 4hr close either way and we're in with targets identified - watching for a potential bounce from the 61.8 hence why marked up
GBPNZD H4 - Long SetupGBPNZD H4
GBP pairs have stormed since the EUR and LON open, GBPJPY starting to bounce from 150.000 too. GBP zones so far seem to be holding well in general too.
Looking for a second support entry before getting involved, the rallies were too fast for our liking so early on in the week.
EURGBP Shorts Short EURO / Long GBP as team GB starts to benefit from a positive post Brexit narrative. Eur sentiment soured with mishandling of Northern Ireland border and proposed vaccine restrictions. A Sign of things to come? Meanwhile, relative to Europe and America, GB leads the way in vaccination programs and efficacy is starting to show in the data. Trans Pacific Trade group application and the prospect of 100's or 1000's wealthy Hong Kong citizens is well received.
From a TA perspective we look set to test to test the lower end of the post referendum range @ 0.83.
📚 The Beauty of Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis 📚What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analysing economic, social, and political forces that may affect currency prices. The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic outlook is good, its currency should strengthen (Baby Pips - www.babypips.com)
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools (Forex.com www.forex.com)
Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past and will form trade ideas believing that price could possibly act the same way that it did before.
From the chart above, you can see how key fundamental news created incredible volatility in the market but the underlying technical analysis was still intact. From this, we can gather that although fundamental analysis is important, technical analysis is just as important.
See charts below to identify how we could have traded the key fundamental moments over the past few years.
See links below for more trade ideas and in-depth analysis!
📚 The Beauty of Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis 📚 What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analysing economic, social, and political forces that may affect currency prices. The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic outlook is good, its currency should strengthen (Baby Pips - www.babypips.com)
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools (Forex.com www.forex.com)
Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past and will form trade ideas believing that price could possibly act the same way that it did before.
From the chart above, you can see how key fundamental news created incredible volatility in the market but the underlying technical analysis was still intact. From this, we can gather that although fundamental analysis is important, technical analysis is just as important.
See charts below to identify how we could have traded the key fundamental moments over the past few years.
See links below for more trade ideas and in-depth analysis!
Long first and then short.Simple Order block and imbalance tests.
Come back for liquidity before the real move down. Not much more than that to report at the end of the week.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GBPUSDGBPUSD Reached and rejected a monthly resistance.
Because GU is still in a strong uptrend I am on the lookout for a buy set up.
The Rsi shows me that this pair might have reached the bottom of its Higher Low.
Once GU breaks out around the area of 1.39700 I will wait and see if it comes back to retest the area of this level and enter a buy to hold.
High R:R
Euro Weakness EURGBPAs the UK comes out of lockdown and the economy re-opens I expect that the GBP strength will continue.
Next level is a 4% drop in EURO value against the GBP, 400+ pips, trading from the weekly chart.
My stop levels are large, but will still only be 1/2% risk for me. The total trade is a 2.74:1 risk reward (slightly under my minimum 3:1).
I like the feel of this trade from a price/trend continuation point of view and fundamentals.
Let me know what you think? Could we push even lower to pre-brexit levels?