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Brent \ Oil - AnalysisOil Brent MN - The price has broken through the trend line at 87.51, which may indicate the beginning of an upward movement. W1 - We are observing a retest after the triangular formation and a breakout of the level of 87.51; for the price to move further upward, it is necessary to wait until the price consolidates at this level, which will open up the possibility of moving to the level of 108 - 125 If the price does not fix at the level of 87.51, we can expect a continuation of the downward movement with a target to the 71 price level What can you expect now? When moving up, the nearest target is 99.34 When moving down, the nearest target is 81.64 Long Targets 99.34 - 108.94 - 125.09 Medium term - targets 92.34 - 94.87 - 99.34 Short Targets 81.64 - 76.52 - 71.27 Medium term - targets 85.40 - 83.79 - 79.81
TVC:UKOIL
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Worrisome ? Saudi Arabia is appearing in the global marketThe development and use of artificial intelligence has been a source of much discussion and concern around the world. In this scenario, a country that has long been overlooked in the technological area begins to emerge; Saudi Arabia. It is a controversial country, which participates in several conflicts in the region, directly or indirectly, and which has a bad record of human rights. However, it seeks to modernize and become a technological hub in the region. To do this, it adopts a curious strategy: investing in soccer. The Saudi national championship features names like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar Junior, as well as some European coaches, who were hired for astronomical values. But what is the purpose of this? It is not just a passion for the sport, but rather a way of diversifying its image and attracting investments. Macroeconomics As the largest Arab economy and one of the largest in the world, Saudi Arabia expects to reach a GDP of over 1 trillion dollars in 2023. However, its economic performance still faces many challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, public debt and current account deficit. In addition, the kingdom seeks to reduce its dependence on oil, whose prices are unstable and subject to external shocks. An example of this was the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused a 4.1% drop in GDP in 2020. Faced with this scenario, the Saudi government implemented measures of fiscal stimulus, public accounts adjustment and economic and social diversification, within the framework of the Vision 2030 plan. These measures favored the recovery of the economy in 2021, with an estimated growth of 8%. For the next few years, the prospects are positive, but moderate: a growth of 3.1% is expected in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024. Table of data for 2020 and current 2023: Source: Nasdaq.com; Al-Monitor The Saudi oil sector It is controlled by the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the largest company in the world in market value and oil extraction. It produces 9.2 million bpd (barrels of oil per day), 9% of world production and half of the bloc’s capacity. The company also influences the global fossil fuel market by its extraction policy and its agreements with OPEC+. In 2020, it led an agreement of the organization to reduce extraction by 9.7 million bpd, 10% of global supply, until April 2021. In 2023, it also announced voluntary cuts in its extraction, with Riyadh saying it would reduce oil by 400 thousand bpd from May until the end of 2023. In addition, it extended the voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month, until July 2023. These measures aim to balance the fossil fuel market and avoid an oversupply. In August 2021, the price of Brent (international reference) was around US$ 72 per barrel, an increase of about 40% compared to the beginning of the year. And a recovery of about 80% compared to the lowest level recorded in April 2020 (US$ 40 per barrel). This high was sustained by the reduction of OPEC+ supply, by the improvement of demand with vaccination and by the expectation of a global economic recovery. The oil sector faces uncertainties and risks, such as the Delta variant of Covid-19, which can reduce the demand for oil, geopolitical tensions and the energy transition to renewable sources. Remember that the war between Russia and Ukraine has a direct impact on this sector, as oil is a strategic and essential resource for the development of many countries. Factors such as supply shortage, energy insecurity, geopolitical tension and emergency stock release affect fossil fuel prices, generating impacts on inflation, transportation, production, and consumption. How to solve this problem? It is important to seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions for the conflict in Ukraine, as well as sustainable and renewable alternatives for the global energy matrix. Oil consumption depends mainly on the level of economic activity of consumer and importer countries, which can increase or decrease their demand. WTI and Brent Oil Technical Analysis WTI Futures To be more precise, WTI suffered a slight drop from 127 to 66.87, resulting in a range between 69.84. In the chart below, we can observe that this corresponds to an accumulation pattern, based on Wyckoff’s structure. Stock data of this fossil fuel still indicate scarcity, as extraction was reduced since the beginning of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in extraction between 2021 and 2022, compared to the period from 2017 to 2019, when it was much higher. In addition, the ESG sustainable movement agendas have long sought to reduce oil extraction, aiming to raise awareness about the use of fossil fuels worldwide. A more detailed analysis of the daily oil chart reveals an accumulation range. In the month of June, there was a significant increase in buying volume, indicating investor interest in buying. I believe this accumulation range will last for some time. After that, investors should wait for signs of interest rate cuts, which may occur in 2024. Jerome Powell does not signal a cut, but rather increases in interest rates. As we know, lowering inflation in the US economy is a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which directly affects the price of crude oil. The same pattern seems to repeat itself when we examine the Brent oil CFD. Again, we observe an accumulation structure during this period. We can also identify a bearish channel. Even with the buying flow since June, the market may return to the range between 86 and 70 until there are signs of improvement in economic data. What I mean by that is that Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates, took advantage of the appreciation of oil to generate more wealth and profitability. This positively impacted the Middle Eastern countries. High oil prices benefited the countries, which increased their production, revenue and geopolitical influence, and they bought clubs, made sports partnerships, opening doors for diversification. Country’s Investments in Technology Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars in technology and innovation, as part of its plan for economic diversification and social modernization. The country has sought to become a hub for research and development in areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, biotechnology, robotics, and cybersecurity. One of the examples of these investments is the purchase of 3,000 H100 chips from Nvidia, each valued at US$ 40,000, by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust), a national public research institution. These chips are essential for the development of artificial intelligence software, especially those based on the GPT-3 model. Kaust plans to use Nvidia’s chips to create its own ChatGPT, an intelligent conversation system that can interact with users in Arabic and English, answering questions, providing information and offering services. In addition to Kaust, other national institutions and companies have also bought chips from Nvidia to develop artificial intelligence projects. For example, the Saudi Telecom Company (STC), the largest telecommunications operator in the country, acquired 1,000 H100 chips to create a cloud computing platform that offers AI services to corporate and governmental customers. As we explore the implications of Saudi Arabia’s controversial ambitions, it is essential to consider how these actions are shaping global relations and, more specifically, the impact they have on leading companies in the technological scenario, such as Nvidia. What does NVIDIA have to do with it? Nvidia has stood out remarkably in relation to other companies in the development of chips for artificial intelligence, arousing the interest of Middle Eastern countries. But, this rise, caused some concerns to the United States, which began to impose trade restrictions in the region. To better understand why Nvidia has stood out in this scenario, I decided to create a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Let’s explore the reasons behind Nvidia’s continued success in the field of technology. My goal is to show how Nvidia is benefiting from innovation in its sector and how this can impact its market performance. Qualitative analysis NVIDIA Nvidia is a company known for its products aimed at gaming, but that also stands out in the sector and in the race of artificial intelligences. The company positions itself as a leader and reference in this field, being one of the most valuable in the world. In 2020, its revenue was US$ 16.68 billion and, in August 2021, its market value was US$ 538 billion. With more than 18 thousand employees in more than 30 countries, Nvidia has strategic partnerships with technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla. Relevant Details of the Sector of Activity: The semiconductor sector, in which Nvidia operates, is very competitive and innovative. Semiconductors are essential for the manufacture of electronic components and require efficient chips to meet growing demands. Nvidia differentiates itself by its experience in GPUs optimized for parallel processing and AI. In addition to having a solid presence in games, the company also offers solutions for cloud, data centers, IoT and other areas. For this, it invests continuously in research and development. SWOT analysis: _____ Strengths: * Market leadership in the CCaaS segment. * An open and flexible platform that integrates various cloud communication and collaboration solutions. * High quality and security of the services offered by the company. * Strong revenue and profit growth in recent years. Weaknesses: * Dependence on the North American market, which accounts for approximately 70% of the company's revenue. * Vulnerability to cyberattacks and privacy breaches. * Difficulty in retaining and attracting qualified talent in the technology sector. Opportunities: * Increased demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and trends in hybrid work and online education. * Expansion into new geographical markets and customer segments. Development of new products and services that add value to customers and generate recurring revenue. * Strategic partnerships with other technology companies to enhance integration and interoperability of the company's solutions. Threats: * Intensified competition in the CCaaS segment, with the entry or strengthening of major market players such as Microsoft, Google, Cisco, and Facebook. * Regulatory or legal changes that could impact the SaaS sector or the CCaaS segment. * Reduced demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions after the end of the pandemic or the return to in-person activities. Source: Seeking Alpha _____ Fundamental Analysis Going straight to the point about the financial health and performance of the company. For this, let’s use the financial data from the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 (ended July 31, 2023). The financial indicators that we will consider are: EBITDA, CFO, ROE, ROIC, Gross Margin and Operating Margin. Source: Yahoo Finance According to the data, it presents good indicators of profitability, cash generation and margins, despite the drop in revenue and profit compared to the previous year. The company stands out in the data center segment, which grew 61% compared to last year. It faces some challenges, such as Russia’s sanctions and China’s lockdowns, which may affect its performance in the future. But the company continues to invest in innovation and expansion, such as the acquisition of ARM and the launch of the Omniverse platform. NVIDIA is a leader in the graphics chip market, with potential to grow even more in the coming years. Source: Yahoo Finance The company has a liquidity of 5.07, which indicates good liquidity. This means that the company has more than enough to cover its short-term obligations. The company has a debt of 0.19, which indicates low debt. This means that the company has a healthy capital structure and is not heavily leveraged. We can conclude that Nvidia has a solid financial position and that it can take advantage of growth opportunities in the technology market. It has also shown consistent results and exceeded expectations. That is why it is considered one of the best in the technology sector. NVIDIA Technical analysis: Translate: But if we look deeper, the video increases since October 2022. If we look closely at the year 2022, it was a year in which the S&P 500 had a very large devaluation compared to the year 2021: It's evident that major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE have also been impacted by this performance, with balances well below expectations and generating significant pessimism. From October 2022, we began to observe a gradual recovery in major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE, although this began in June when there was an increase in purchases on June 21. Despite the sharp decline, there was a recovery from this drop, forming a range where investors took advantage of the pessimism to buy stocks. The movement observed at the bottom on October 3 corresponds to a “spring,” indicating the end of the downtrend. 2023 has been a positive year for Nvidia, and the recent surge could further boost share prices if it breaches the 483 region. After examining the impact of Nvidia on the global technology scenario, we see that technological innovations are not always used positively. We do not know how far Saudi Arabia plans to go, but its ambition and power raise doubts. The country is a controversial figure in the global scenario and with all the investment in technology and innovation, they can generate concerns for the international community. I hope this article was useful and informative for you. Thank you for your reading. Source: Reuters, Financial Times, Investing.com. Tradingview.com, Yahoo Finance
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Victoredbr
Buy BRENT#BRENT Oil continues its steady growth on expectations of a reduction in supplies from the Russian Federation in September, as well as positive news from China. However, at the moment the price is starting to look a bit overheated and needs to be deflated. Against this background, I am waiting for a suspension and correction in the coming days. Nevertheless, the uptrend is strong, so the plan is to open purchases near the levels of 87 and 86 dollars per barrel with a take profit of 88.50.
SKILLING:XBRUSDLong
by airstels
Brent uptrend exhaustionContext: Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up Daily – uptrend Microstructure: Poor highs, poor lows Last day: value moved down Special notes: There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it. Conclusion: A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside. For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by hermes_trisme
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads" Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports. Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector. There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels. The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through. Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel) Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive. So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe. Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year. If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ). This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil. The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87. If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now. The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff. There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line. This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend. I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark. As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by RomanoRnr
1
Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting UpTechnical Analysis: WEEKLY BEAISH Daily Bearish 4H Bearish In the chart above I have highlightened the trend, the Bear and Bulltraps. We have falling Highs/falling Lows. A bullish pullback signs eveytime low volume and low volatility that is the evidence of bulltraps caused by oil companies(and big speculators) The oil companies have also their own trades who push the pices fo a short time to make profits and accumultae thie losses,caused by low oiil pices. Also thier investors demand higher pofits. I am short in Oil, aleady fom July of 2022, and sell everytime the picks of the bullish short tem trend. This means I increase my selling positions bigge and bigger.So trade with the trend. I avoid to buy oil, or go long, nor I ignore the weekly reports, as they are vey short tem and can changed the next moment, but eview the fundamentals on bigge picture. The maket will target 39USD. So I have mentioend 4 different scenaios and shown you their routes. 3 scenaio ae bearish with very high probability:Tend is bearish, Fundamentals ae bearish. The weak USD has less impact here, cuz it is not the only indiacto that moves the oil market. To become Bullish(Scenario 4(see the chat above!!!) Many things must happen: The ask for oil must incease damatically(OPEC production stop,world war,....)Even the impact or Russia Ukraine war was fo a short time. The fundamental trend is beaish,as no one is inteested in higher oil prices. Even producers avoid it, as higher oil ppices cuases higher costs. Indicators: I have my own indicators, and dont use the common indicators. So my Bulltrap/beatap detector is confriming that. In the chart above we see that long term and mid term Indicators are red(Beaish trend/Stong bearish trend) The shot tem Indicator is geen, meaning bulltap. If you compare the indicator values withe the chart prices, you will notice they produce best possible signals whe to get short of long. The same is true for daily chart, or lowe time frames. Several factors can influence the direction of oil prices: 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics: If global oil supply surpasses demand, it can put downward pressure on prices. Factors such as increased production from major oil-producing countries or a decrease in global demand due to economic slowdowns or shifts towards renewable energy sources can contribute to weaker oil prices. Conversely, supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected increases in global demand can drive prices higher. 2. Economic Conditions: Economic growth and global economic stability play a significant role in oil price movements. During periods of economic expansion, demand for oil tends to increase, potentially leading to higher prices. Conversely, economic downturns or recessions can reduce demand for oil and exert downward pressure on prices. 3. Geopolitical Events: Political conflicts, sanctions, or disruptions in major oil-producing regions can impact oil prices. Supply disruptions or threats to supply can lead to price increases, while the resolution of conflicts or increased production capacity can contribute to price decreases. 4. Energy Transition Efforts: As countries and industries increasingly focus on transitioning to cleaner and renewable energy sources, the demand for oil may be influenced. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy can potentially lead to lower long-term demand for oil and put downward pressure on prices. However, the pace and extent of the energy transition vary globally, making it challenging to predict its immediate impact on oil prices. It is crucial to consider that oil price movements are affected by complex and interrelated factors, and their future direction is challenging to forecast accurately. Market dynamics and unexpected events can cause significant price volatility, making it important for investors and stakeholders to closely monitor global developments and factors influencing the oil market. Oil tried many times to break the 2022 lows at 75,33 Fundamentally nealy eveything is speaking for weaker oil prices: 1. U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs See More Losses The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, after a 6-rig increase last week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday. The total rig count fell to 675 this week—81 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 400 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic. The number of oil rigs declined by 3 this week to 537, while the number of gas rigs fell by 2, to 133. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5. The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 5—13 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and was down 10 rigs from this time last year. Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell by 12 in the week ending July 7, to 260. The frac spread count is 25 behind where it was this time last year. Crude oil production levels in the United States slipped back to 12.3 million bpd in the week ending July 7, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of 100,000 bpd from the beginning of the year.  U.S. production levels are now up 300,000 bpd versus a year ago. 2. U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC With Record Production In 2023 The EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, eclipsing the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day. Energy experts have generally been bearish about U.S. crude supply with many arguing it has already peaked. Rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment were some of the problems that were hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale to increase output. 3. Weaker US Dollar is bad for Oil Prices and Oil price will fall deeper. The reasons are: A weakening of the US dollar can have various effects on the production and prices of oil. Here are some conditions and reasons that may lead to such an outcome: 1. Currency Exchange Rates: A weaker US dollar relative to other currencies can make oil more expensive for countries that trade in dollars. This can lead to reduced demand for oil, which may result in lower production levels to match the reduced demand. 2. Import Costs: A weaker US dollar can increase the cost of importing oil for countries that rely heavily on oil imports. Higher import costs can create an incentive for these countries to reduce their oil consumption or seek alternative energy sources, which can affect oil production levels. 3. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation can be influenced by the strength or weakness of a currency. When the US dollar weakens, it can lead to higher import prices, including the cost of imported oil. If inflation becomes a concern, central banks may respond by tightening monetary policy, which can have a cooling effect on the economy and potentially impact oil demand and prices. 4. Global Economic Conditions: A weakening US dollar can be a reflection of broader global economic conditions. If the global economy is experiencing a slowdown or recession, demand for oil may decrease, resulting in lower oil prices. In such a scenario, a weaker US dollar may be just one factor contributing to the overall decline in oil prices. It's important to note that the relationship between the US dollar, inflation, and oil prices is complex and influenced by multiple factors. Changes in oil prices can be influenced by geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, production decisions by major oil-producing countries, and other market forces. The interplay between currency exchange rates, inflation, and oil prices can vary depending on the specific circumstances and the broader global economic environment. The news states that the total number of active drilling rigs in the United States has decreased by 5, following a previous increase of 6 rigs. Here are some potential interpretations and examples of the impact of this news: 4. Production and Investment: The decline in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a slowdown in oil and gas production activity in the United States. Fewer rigs imply that energy companies are scaling back their exploration and drilling operations, which can lead to a reduction in production levels. This decline may indicate a cautious approach by companies in response to various factors such as lower oil prices, reduced demand, or economic uncertainties. 5. Employment and Economic Effects: The decrease in active rigs can have ripple effects on the economy. As drilling activity slows down, it may result in job losses in the oil and gas sector, as well as related industries that support drilling operations. Communities heavily reliant on the energy industry may experience reduced economic activity and lower income levels. 6. Regional Impact: The news also provides specific information about the decline in the rig count in certain regions. For example, the Permian Basin saw a decrease of 5 rigs compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential slowdown in oil and gas exploration in that area. Similarly, the Eagle Ford region experienced a decline of 1 rig, which may suggest reduced drilling activity in that particular location. These regional variations can have localized economic consequences, affecting employment, local businesses, and government revenues. 7. Market Implications: The decrease in the rig count can influence oil and gas prices in the market. If the reduction in drilling activity leads to lower production levels, it could contribute to a decrease in the global oil and gas supply. Depending on the balance of supply and demand, this may put upward pressure on prices. Overall, the decrease in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a potential slowdown in the US oil and gas industry. It can have implications for production levels, employment, regional economies, and market dynamics. However, it's important to consider that rig count fluctuations are influenced by various factors, and it is advisable to analyze longer-term trends and broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Based on the provided news, here are some interpretations and examples of the impact: 8. Frac Spread Count: The decrease in the Frac Spread Count by 12 suggests a decline in the number of crews completing unfinished wells. This indicates a potential slowdown in the completion of wells, which could be attributed to various factors such as reduced investment, operational challenges, or market conditions. Completing unfinished wells is generally cheaper than drilling new wells, so a decrease in this count may indicate cost-cutting measures in response to economic factors. 9. Crude Oil Production Levels: The report indicates that crude oil production levels in the United States slipped to 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending July 7. This slight decline in production may be influenced by factors such as maintenance activities, operational issues, or natural production declines. However, it's worth noting that compared to the beginning of the year, there has been a gain of 100,000 bpd, and production levels are up by 300,000 bpd compared to a year ago. These figures indicate a gradual increase in production over time. 10. Oil Prices: The news provides information about the current trading prices of WTI and Brent benchmarks. WTI benchmark was trading down $1.27 (-1.65%) at $75.62 per barrel, while the Brent benchmark was trading down $1.26 (-1.55%) at $80.10 per barrel. Despite the daily decline, both benchmarks have seen an increase compared to the previous week, with WTI up nearly $3 per barrel and Brent up $2.50 per barrel. The fluctuation in oil prices can be influenced by various factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. In summary, the news suggests a potential slowdown in the completion of unfinished wells, a slight decline in crude oil production levels, and fluctuations in oil prices. These factors can be influenced by a range of economic, operational, and market-related considerations. It's important to monitor long-term trends and analyze broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 11. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 12. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 13. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 14. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments. 4,Potential Impact of Iran's Oil Production: Iran's monthly oil production is gradually increasing, posing a challenge to OPEC's control over the oil market. Although talks of a new nuclear deal leading to an influx of Iranian oil have created market instability, such a deal has not materialized. However, if sanctions are lifted and Iran's production potential is fully realized, it could conflict with OPEC's efforts to regulate the market and maintain high oil prices. The uncertainty surrounding Iran's oil production adds a mysterious element to the oil markets. 1. OPEC's Concerns: The possibility of Iran's oil returning to the market raises concerns for both traders and OPEC. OPEC has exempted Iran from production cuts for years due to sanctions. Iran's oil production figures, reported monthly by OPEC, may not be entirely accurate. The potential reentry of Iranian oil into the market could disrupt OPEC's influence and market control. Rising Investment in Offshore Exploration: Despite a focus on disciplined investment, major oil companies are increasing their investment in offshore exploration. They anticipate higher returns from large offshore projects compared to low-carbon energy investments. This shift in strategy is driven by the expectation of increased profitability and the need to ensure a secure supply of oil and gas. 1. Offshore Rig Demand: Deepwater rig utilization is on the rise, driving up rates as companies ramp up exploration activities. Demand for offshore rigs is expected to increase by another 20% from 2024-2025. The "Golden Triangle" regions of Latin America, North America, and Africa, along with parts of the Mediterranean, are expected to account for a significant portion of global floating rig demand. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 1. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 2. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 3. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 4. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Oil Prices WILL Fall Demand concerns Fed Rate HikesOil prices continued to trend lower in morning trade in Asia, with WTI heading toward HKEX:78 and Brent moving closer to $82. Canadian Government Admits It’s Short Tens Of Thousands Of Oil Workers The Fed has repeatedly indicated that is it not done with rate hikes, which traders see as countering any growing demand from China. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: STRONG Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 79.46. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 73.95 level soon. MY TARGETS 74.75 72.55 70.25 68.95 if boken, then 64,55 61,95 59,80
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Brent Crude just gave my first buy signal since March 2022TECHNICALS: We’re looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude oil. We can see since March 2022, the price has indeed tanked from $136 down to $71. During that time, we can see it’s formed a large Descending Triangle pattern. This is generally a pattern which also forms what looks like a falling triangle. The selling is stronger than the buying. And this is what brings the price down. The $71 price however, is the crucial support (floor level) that’s been holding since 2021. Each time it touches this level, the price tends to bounce back up. Recently, the Brent Crude price has broken up and out of the Descending Triangle. This tells me the buyers are back and so is demand for the market. The first target will be half way between the Descending Triangle’s high at $100. Once we break that psychological $100 mark, I’ll be sure to send you the next prediction for Brent Crude. FUNDAMENTALS: It’s been a long and depressing time for the black gold commodity. We’ve seen the price drop from $135 down to $71.00, over the last two years. But now, Brent Crude is stealing the limelight. With the impending oil shortages to the soaring global demand – the trend is finally changing. In this article, we’ll go through the three main reasons why I expect Brent Crude to rally back to its $100 mark. Reason #1: The big shortage of oil A key driver of why Brent Crude is ready to rally, is due to the recent prediction by the International Energy Administration (IEA). They have stated there is an imminent oil shortage. In fact, the IEA has warned the shortage in oil will materialize in the second half of 2023. We could see demand potentially outpace supply by around 2 million barrels a day. Also, Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has said it will prolong its reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day into August 2023. This extension has followed from their sudden decision to reduce an additional million bpd for July. Then we have Russia and Algeria who will also lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd. And so, based on this, we’ve seen oil prices rise by over 5.29%. This scenario leads me to believe oil prices are likely to climb for the following reasons: 1. Supply Disruption First, with Saudi Arabia deciding to cut production, they are limiting the amount of oil available in the market. When there is a lower supply, there is a ride in demand. And this puts upward pressure on oil prices. 2. OPEC Influence on other members We know Saudi Arabia is a leading member of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). And when they make a decision, this often sways other global oil markets to follow along. This can result in other OPEC+ members to decide to cut their production. And this lower supply, and increased demand will help increase the price of oil. Reason #2: Goldman Sachs makes its prediction Goldman Sachs has also spoken. It has lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel, by the end of the year. And raised its price prediction to $100 for 2024, based on the oil output change.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Timonrosso
Brent to stall at trend of lower highs?Brent - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Trend line resistance is located at 76.60. 50 1day EMA is at 76.35. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look to Sell at 76.39 (stop at 77.39) Our profit targets will be 73.89 and 73.39 Resistance: 75.90 / 76.40 / 77.34 Support: 75.20 / 74.80 / 74.40 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by OANDA
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to buy dips. The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns. We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13) Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13 Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00 Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by OANDA
WTI UpdateOkay, the Saudis did cut. I must confess that I underestimated His Royal Highness's ability to surprise. That leaves us with a possible gap on Monday. Given the market pressures and the fact that the previous cut was ineffective in sustaining the price, the gap is unlikely to be as large as in April. The gap is, most likely, wave 3 of (c) of the first wave up in the leading diagonal. There is still a chance that wave (ii) will close the gap, as shown on the chart. MBS, you did an excellent job. I am not as long as I could have been.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
3