Crude Oil Elliott Wave Idea - UpdateUpdate on an oil theory that started back in November 2020:
This idea was that a wave 4 completed at $33, however the move up accelerated and it quickly came apparent that the move up from $33 was not wave 5:
In March 2021 I took another look with the idea that $33 was the end of wave 2 and the current impulse was indeed wave 3 that could end around the $77 area before a wave 4 correction:
In August 2021 the wave 4 completed and now taking a new high above $76 the 5th wave is confirmed:
In my opinion we are now in the 5th and final wave that could end anywhere between $84 and $97, completing either a larger degree wave 1 or wave A, before a larger degree correction.
Brentoil
BrentBrent has been particularly kind to me, falling almost perfectly in sync with my general direction forecast arrow.
This week I am expecting much of the same, WPL is around 76 and it also happens to be where a trend line from 2008 is. I don’t pay too much attention to trend lines, as I could just as easily draw a slightly different one depending on my methodology which intersects here at a much lower price of 65. However, the trend line coupled with WPL may prove to give us an indication of how far oil will slip depending on how it behaves (if/when) it gets there.
OILBRENT A Great Selling Opportunity 🤨👌Trade Proposal:
There is a probability of first tp to the proposed ( 40$ ) Direction line. So, Traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term goals.
Technical analysis:
OILBRENT is in Downtrend and It is Expected to Continue Downtrend.
Crude Oil price is in an important area in W1 Time frameRight now the price has reached to the top of the descending channel and also an important resistance level; BUT this movement from channel bottom to the top was very aggressive. So we have to wait and see the reaction to this Level and because of that I will not take any positions for now.
USOIL SHORT SET-UPEntry Range: 83.28 - 84.17
Avg . Entry 83.95 (RRR: 2)
1st. Profit Target: 81.6
Stop Loss: 85.11
HOW TO ENTER MY TRADES
1. Ladder your entries.
You'll want to ladder place your orders exponentially within the Entry Range to the point your RRR is atleast 1.5 if fully filled.
2. Only first touches are valid.
If price is rebounding back into the entry zone after either the profit target or stop loss was hit the entry zone is no longer valid.
Another Move Higher for Brent Crude Oil, Towards 89.25Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The commodity Brent Crude Oil (BCO) has been in a rangebound movement since mid-October 2021, with resistance around the 86.50 price level and support observed around the 83.55 price level. Expectations are for a breakout higher towards 89.25. Failure of this move will be seen if BCO breaks below 83.
On the longer termed Daily chart, BCO has had quite a rally thus far, with a low around the 65.213 price level, the commodity is 31.7% higher. A change in trend will be determined if BCO were to decline below 81.693.
Technical Indicators
BCO is currently trading above its short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The commodity is currently in an uptrend. The RSI is trading above 50 and there has been a positive crossover on the KST. This suggests another move higher for the commodity.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 83.00 and a target of 89.25. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.14
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
Crude Is Ready for CorrectionCrude prices slightly declined on Wednesday morning as API reported crude reserves in the United States were up by 3.29 million barrels, which is above expectations of 2.23 million. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present official figures concerning reserves on Wednesday evening. The forecast is up from 1.857 million barrels to 428.9 million barrels in total.
This is a regular weekly data. The EIA data may provide an impulse for the correction of crude prices. Brent crude is within the upward trend with a current upside wave which started on August 23. Since then Brent crude prices are up by 30%.
If we consider crude prices on H2-H4 price charts, we may find that the rise since October 6 is accompanied by divergences. We may find three consecutive highs at $83.56, $84.56, $86.03 per barrel of Brent crude. And we would clearly find a divergence on any oscillator. If we connect lows on October 7 and October 13 than, together with the resistance lines, we will receive a reversal pattern “ascending wedge”. The downside exit from this pattern has already been executed. But for the moment, price is testing the former support as a new resistance level. If this pattern is confirmed Brent crude prices may return to $79-79.5 per barrel, making a correction of 6% from the current levels.
If Brent crude prices close on Wednesday to the downside, the reversal will be confirmed on the daily timeframe too. We would have a Tweezers candlestick pattern with confirmation. Intermediate support is located $81.40 per barrel where fast moving average EMA21 is on the daily timeframe chart.
In addition, I could add that if this “descending wedge” would be executed in full, then we may see a change to the current three-month upward trend.
UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) : 1Mn (Update)Last Analysis : Well, as we can see, we are technically reviewing Brent oil charts at monthly timeframes. The price finally broke its 13-year downtrend last month ... (This break needs to be stabilized) Currently, the most important support range for Brent oil is from $ 72 to $ 76 ... Brent oil currently has a significant static resistance of $ 85 and we have to see if it can break this resistance after 3 years and pave its way to climb or not.
Now : The Next Targets are 101$ , 116$ & 128$
This analysis is a check of the chart in a monthly time frame and everything is clear on the chart and does not need additional explanation ... However, if you have any questions, feel free to ask .
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 18.Oct.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) : 1Month (Update)Last Analysis : Well, as we see in the monthly time frame of the US Crude Oil Chart, the price in February finally broke its 13-year downward trend ... After that, it continued to grow well and reached its static resistance level in July 2021, and It failed to defeat it and then rebounded to its broken support level in August. Last month, the price reached to the psychologically and Impostant resistance level which is 77$ ... we have to see if the price can finally break this important 3-year resistance in October or what ...
Now : The Next Targets are 100$ , 110$ & 114$
This analysis is a check of the chart in a monthly time frame and everything is clear on the chart and does not need additional explanation ... However, if you have any questions, feel free to ask .
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 18.Oct.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
Oil Short SetupOil Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.58
🟢 Take Profit: $79.39
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.29
Reasons:
- So far the price is respecting the ascending channel;
- I expect an overbought level on the PVS Indicator by the time the price reaches the upper trendline;
- Volume is not supporting the up movement;
Crude Oil Is Close to Setting New HighsCrude prices continue their steady rise as the Brent crude benchmark is trading close to $77.40 per barrel. The July high is at $77.84 per barrel, well within arm’s reach. The rise in crude prices continues for the fourth consecutive day as investors digest the recent damages to the U.S. oil industry caused by two recent hurricanes.
The damages were confirmed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data that showed a decline of crude reserves to 414 million barrels, a record low since October 2018. This week EIA recorded a drop of oil reserves by 3.5 million barrels or 0.8%, and this is the seventh week of declines in the row.
As I said before, Brent crude oil has a potential to rise to $82 per barrel if we consider the height of the downward channel to be the price that has been broken through recently. A decline of prices to $73.26 per barrel was just a test of the new support level that was formerly a resistance level.
So, we may say that further hikes in prices is quite possible even if prices are at record highs for several months. However, we may have a short-term correction to the area of $76.50-76.60 per barrel, where the support level of the upward trend from September 21 is located.
Anyway, any correction now is a good chance to open buy positions. Moreover, if we look at the monthly timeframe we may find a “triple tweezers” candlestick pattern at $65-67 per barrel. Such a pattern indicates a high possibility for the bullish trend to continue. Oil may surge to $90 a barrel if the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere proves colder than normal, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Tightening gas supplies in Europe will elevate demand for oil as an alternative at a time when global crude output is constrained, Currie said during a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday. Post-hurricane disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were among the worldwide factors he cited.
Backer Hughes oil rigs count report may affect crude prices later on Friday after the company has reported active rigs at 512 including oil rigs at 411 units as of September 17.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaWorking in the oil & gas industry I've always wanted to plot an Elliott Wave idea with oil reaching $100, one that I felt was realistic and not pie in the sky...in my opinion oil is heading that direction now.
The exact 0.382 retracement level from $44,05 to $33,79 at the end of 2020 leads me to believe that was the end of wave 2 and the next retracement will begin at the 1.618 level around $77 for wave 4, before wave 5 towards $100.
I had a similar idea back when this move from $33 started () that this move could be wave 5 but its flown far beyond those levels and has me thinking this is wave 3 we are in now, and its not quite finished yet.
H4-DAILY OIL BRENT SHORTBased on H4-Daily chart Oil Brent is reaching a strong resistance at 83.0. Possible short correction to 79.0 price range.
Trade wisely
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