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Bitcoin: Buying the dip sub $16,000Predictions (TLDR the analysis): The 400d EMA will eventually fail as support The 20 Month SMA will be tested and fail as support The Monthly Keltner Channel will act as support (with wicking very probable) at about 15k 3-5 year target is 160k with chance of over-performance Main Chart Bitcoin continues to chop sideways and cause a lot of people a lot of pain through all the uncertainty and difficulty in finding a good trade entry. Big picture I still think BTC is entering a bear market. We may bounce up or down and we could have a head and shoulders here or we could have a double top over there but ultimately the easiest trade understand but perhaps the hardest to do is to buy the bottom of the monthly Keltner channel. The chart covers almost a decade of price action BTC and the pattern so far is very clear, price action runs up parabolically out of the Keltner channel and when it slips the 400 day EMA as support price action proceeds until it the Keltner Channel can act as support. There has been a lot of hope that this will resemble 2013 and there will be a quick consolidation and then a quick pump to the upside and that would mean that the price action should continue to find support here on the 400D EMA. I don't see that happening based on the volatility stop. I will link an idea that predicted the bear market based on the weekly VSTOP and SMA analysis but below we will be addressing the monthly. Volatility Stop Analysis There is a very low probability of the 400 maintaining support as the monthly VSTOP and MTF VSTOPx3 are primed bearish. The chart below shows we have broken flipped the monthly VSTOP last period and we are about to flip the MTFx3 after confirming a close below $46.6. The natural conclusion based on history is that the 20 month SMA will fail as support and we test the bottom of the monthly Keltner. Just a reminder that the VSTOP and Keltner are based on the Average true range, a very useful base calculation that I recommend traders at least experiment with. Below is the BLX chart with the 15 day KC and we first focus on 2011. The data here was to young to have a monthly chart and so that is why we are using a lower timeframe. Once again the KC is found as support on the Keltner channel on the highest timeframe that makes sense, the half month chart. We are also working on closing our third candle body within this 15 day KC and this price action resembles the tops at 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2019. It does not look similar to the top of 2013. Elliot Wave Analysis One of the main sticking points for some people is they people don't think that BTC can trade within its previous all time high. That opinion should be to be disregarded because it is is not based on any technical fundamentals whatsoever. The most clear reason why not is in a Elliot wave theory a 12345 wave by default the corrective ABC wave goes within wave 4. Below is a Elliot wave count off of the BLX data that looks heck'n valid. The targets, probably a bout 3-5 years off, is pretty wild as well and will be shown in the fibs section below. Just think 100x is back on the table in 3-5 years. Here is a key point, a ABC correction completes wave 1-2 and sets up wave 3, which by definition cannot be the shortest wave and often is the longest (commodities sometimes wave 5 is the longest). Here are a series of if then comments. If I am correct then BTC is competing a wave 5 and will see an ABC correction. Very likely to the bottom of the Keltner channel. IF that happens then are set up for wave 3. Fibs The most natural fibs we could look for are the 1.618 or 2.618 retracement levels from the top to the bottom of the correction which would put a major stall at either one of those levels, and a potential impulse move between those levels. These are the levels I think most wider time frame traders will be looking at for their long shot. The exact placement of the fibs will require some patience for this move to play out so we know where the exact low will be to do the target setting. This is where I approximate the 160k stall. Here is another example of why the 1.618 is a very important fib retracement: the last cycle ATH to the low. There are people who are saying that this top was unexpected or perhaps premature. That could not be further from the case. This was a classic 1.618 extension from high to low. Given the power of this chart you should remember it and consider it may remain very predictive in the future. This last chart is mostly for funsies. It is a fib extension off of the original 1-2 wave and because the way fib levels and waves interrelate somehow it hella call the high here at the 1.272 level. Very curious. We also see the 1 level acted as strong support twice in the 2017-18 bear market. Since this is a longer shot I don't know how to interpret this yet and it is something for me to ponder. We don't know which of these levels may be stiff resistance and which will be support on retracements but his is something to bear in mind. Perhaps the golden pocket will be the next major top in 10 years. Final Thoughts If you find someone considering a bear market of less than 70% you have to realize they have no historical basis for that call. The calls of "this time will be different" so far still apply as an error in thinking until we have a bear market that is less than 70%. My long term call, while technically based, still is on the shallow end of btc bear markets. You can consider a bear market by your own criteria but for me now we are out of the early stages of btc lifespan it will be below the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP on the weekly for transition and below the 20w confirms. It will take a lot to surpass that triple resistance. If you see the Monthly VSTOP and MTF and 20 month SMA confirmed bearish then you best consider that we are bearish and consider a dip buying strategy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
7
VINO low float longI am still long vino from 3.40s. Holding for 2-3x VINO 40 for 1 split on nasdaq uplist 7.5M float Insane levels of accumulation. Tumin Stone Capital is the offering buyer (owned by 3i) Offering due to close anyday now...been seeing huge institutional block buys coming in over the last few weeks. You looking for the next low float banger that is severely undervalued? This is probably you're best bet. Be careful of your risk sizing especially if you can't catch a dip. The spread is very wide most of the time....20c or more at times. Use precaution as obviously low floats can be very volatile. I have a sell order at $6, then $8, then the rest at $10. Goodluck.
VLong
by Todoubled23
7
Bitcoin (BTC) • Let's do some On Balance Volume analysis Bitcoin want to test higher but volumes overall still looking very weak to be considered bullish. Swaps keep trading back and forward but futures still remain relatively flat with normalised premiums (that is good). Funding rates currently favouring shorts as price mark up. Overall feel pretty neutral leaning bearish (even if we mark up to test 45k range). Daily and Weekly timeframes look ugly. I want to see volumes and some other strong signals coming out of futures to be more convinced that we found a bottom. At the moment I am not convinced. In this video I focus on the analysis of the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by D7R
5
Ethereum Unlikely to Break Out Above 3000.00The latest bullish pullback on ETHUSD entails excellent opportunities for contrarian trading. After having tested the 23.6% Fibonacci on two separate occasions, the price is currently probing the 38.2% Fibonacci. The descending trend line (in red) is currently threading very close to this major resistance, which in itself presupposes a likely reversal. Moreover, it is worth pointing out that the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator underpins persisting bearish bias in the market. The price has reached the upper boundary of the Cloud, which is converging with the trend line and the psychologically significant resistance at 3000.00. When all of these factors are considered in conjunction with each other, a bearish correction from 3000.00 seems highly probable. From there, ETHUSD is likely to drop to the 23.6% Fibonacci for a third time.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Trendsharks
Short $SPY with April - May SeasonalityThe end of April brings a selling opportunity, historically near the FOMC statement and the bulk of tech earnings. This week we had the bulk of tech earnings with FAANMG + TSLA reporting. Combined with the FOMC catalyst I believe this is a great opportunity to either go to cash, or short the markets. The day after the FOMC SPY posted a Hanging Man top. This particular pattern is pretty accurate, where the price gaps to a new high, drops to a low and fills the previous day's close, then gets bought back up to close very near the opening price (and hopefully just below the opening price). The attached idea for NDX/QQQ showed a very similar setup. We will know if this trade is legitimate if the price gaps down this morning (Friday April 30) and immediately charges for the previous day's low. I have very conservative targets for this short, since recent years have show that the "Sell in May" trade has been somewhat muted. I blame this on the QE years beginning in 2009. The left weekly chart shows a pop in the % distance above the 200 week moving average. This level has not been since since the 1996-2000 era. Weekly RSI is also overbought. The right chart shows a possible bearish RSI divergence setup. 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Simple Average) - Close longs and/or short post April FOMC 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Exponentially weighted) - The difference here shows that when recent years are given more weight, the "Sell in May" trade is flat/muted.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mortdiggiddy
95
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: OBV FallingHello, dear subscribers! In the previous and other reviews we have repeatedly analyzed the meaning of the OBV indicator. We have marked the important support for the buyers - 2.15M. In the days following the last bitcoin market review, the sellers managed to break down important support for the buyers. The bitcoin price corrected from $59,500 to $55,500 in this move. At the moment, we are seeing the bitcoin price recovering from the fall. One of the expected scenarios of bitcoin price movement is a return to the 2.15M level of the OBV indicator after which a bounce down and a deeper fall of bitcoin price. On the chart, the projected movement is marked with arrows. The next bearish targets after the $55,000 are $52,000 and the round $50,000. It is also possible that the bulls will be able to win back the fall and raise the OBV above 2.15M. Other indicators MACD and RSI are in the recovery zone, RSI is above 50, MACD shows growth. In the next days or hours we may see a decoupling in the bitcoin market. All buyers should be careful, probably now the bitcoin price is at an attractive enough level to take profits. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Short
by CatalystsFinance
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: Bullish signHello, dear subscribers! In previous reviews we marked the $58,000 level as important for the bulls. Fixing above it will give the bulls a chance to continue the full-fledged uptrend. In the past days, we have seen an active growth of bitcoin from the support level 1 - $51,500 - $52,000. Today, bitcoin price got close to 58,000 and broke through the downward channel, in which it was after the historical high. The MACD and RSI indices turned up and are in the green zone. The OBV indicator touched the support at 2.15M, which is important for buyers and also turned up. All this indicates a full-fledged attack of the bulls, who are satisfied with the current correction and are ready to move the price up to new highs. In the current situation there might be a quick break-up of the level of $58,000 or a fake break-up with a long price chattering around $58,000 and a fight between the bulls and the bears for determining the direction of the trend. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Long
by CatalystsFinance
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: CorrectionHello, dear subscribers! In the previous review, we looked at the downward exit from the triangle as a priority movement option for bitcoin price. In the following days, bitcoin price corrected down to the designated support zone. The bitcoin price entered the support zone of $51,000 - $52,000, after which the bulls beat off the bears' attack. The current bitcoin price resistance level is in the $55,500 zone. Support levels remain the same. The RSI and MACD indicators are in the red zone, but at the moment show recovery after a strong fall. The OBV indicator touched 2.15M - this level is the main support for the buyers. A fixation below it would indicate the formation of a global downtrend. At the moment, bitcoin price is in the wide zone of $51,000 - $55,500. In the coming days, buyers or sellers will try to overcome the boundaries and show their strength, in the current situation, the initiative remains with the bears. Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
Short
by CatalystsFinance