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Brazilianreal

Can the Brazilian Real Survive its Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate world of global finance, few narratives are as compelling as Brazil's current economic crucible. The Brazilian real stands at a precipice, buffeted by a confluence of domestic policy missteps and international economic pressures that challenge the very foundations of its monetary stability. President Lula's administration finds itself wrestling with a complex challenge: balancing ambitious social spending with the cold, hard realities of fiscal discipline. The currency's dramatic decline—losing nearly 20% of its value in recent months—represents more than a mere statistical fluctuation. It is a profound referendum on investor confidence, reflecting deep-seated concerns about Brazil's economic management. The potential depreciation to 7 reals per dollar looms like a specter, threatening to unleash inflationary pressures that could destabilize the entire economic ecosystem, from local markets to international trade relationships. What emerges is a high-stakes economic drama with global implications. The Brazilian real's struggle is not just a national issue, but a microcosm of the broader challenges facing emerging economies in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape. As central bank governors, international investors, and policymakers watch with bated breath, Brazil stands at a critical juncture—its choices will not only determine its economic trajectory but potentially reshape perceptions of emerging market resilience in the face of unprecedented economic volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
USD BRL chart Analysis EN and PT language On a weekly time frame, the Brazilian Real has experienced a downward trend since 2011. There are several reasons that have contributed to the market's inflation and the weakening of the Brazilian economy against the US Dollar. These reasons include factors such as job vacancies, high crime rates, corruption, and a complex tax system. The chart analysis indicates that the waves from 2011 to 2023 can be identified as five distinct waves, with wave 5 ending at 6 Brazilian Reals for 1 US Dollar. This signifies the continuous decline of the Brazilian economy over the years relative to the United States Dollars . In 2020, the Brazilian Real reached its highest exchange rate of 6 Reals for 1 Dollar, primarily due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. From a technical analysis perspective, this peak could be considered the end of wave 5, which had started in 2011 and lasted until 2020. Following the peak of wave 5, a correction phase began, resulting in complex wave corrections known as WXYXZ waves. In my opinion, this correction was influenced by various economic problems in the United States, including the closure of many banks and a substantial increase in national debt, which exceeded 1.4 trillion dollars for the first time in 30 years. Additionally, the Ukrainian War also had an impact on the value of the US Dollar. These factors are likely to have a positive effect on the Brazilian economy since Brazil stands in a different position from the United States in terms of economic conditions. Moreover, Brazil implemented several changes at the beginning of 2023, such as the decision made by BRICS members to use their local currencies for official transactions, reducing dependence on the US Dollar. Considering the current exchange rate of around 5 Reals for 1 Dollar, it is possible that the price may experience a slight increase as part of the (x) wave. However, by the end of the year, it is expected to start moving downwards, reaching a range between 4.5 and 4.2 Reals for 1 Dollar. This downward movement would mark the completion of the Z wave, concluding the overall wave cycle. It is important to note that further developments and news will shape the future chart for the Brazilian Real. Economic and geopolitical events can have significant impacts on currency exchange rates, and these factors should be carefully monitored to assess the potential direction of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar. BY Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre portuguese : Em um período semanal, o Real Brasileiro tem experimentado uma tendência de queda desde 2011. Existem várias razões que têm contribuído para a inflação do mercado e o enfraquecimento da economia brasileira em relação ao Dólar Americano. Essas razões incluem fatores como vagas de emprego, altas taxas de criminalidade, corrupção e um sistema tributário complexo. A análise do gráfico indica que as ondas de 2011 a 2023 podem ser identificadas como cinco ondas distintas, com a onda 5 terminando em 6 Reais Brasileiros por 1 Dólar Americano. Isso significa o declínio contínuo da economia brasileira ao longo dos anos em relação ao Dólar dos Estados Unidos. Em 2020, o Real Brasileiro atingiu sua maior taxa de câmbio de 6 Reais por 1 Dólar, principalmente devido ao impacto da pandemia de COVID-19. Do ponto de vista da análise técnica, esse pico poderia ser considerado o fim da onda 5, que havia começado em 2011 e durado até 2020. Após o pico da onda 5, uma fase de correção começou, resultando em correções complexas conhecidas como ondas WXYXZ. Na minha opinião, essa correção foi influenciada por diversos problemas econômicos nos Estados Unidos, incluindo o fechamento de muitos bancos e um aumento substancial na dívida nacional, que ultrapassou 1,4 trilhão de dólares pela primeira vez em 30 anos. Além disso, a Guerra da Ucrânia também teve impacto no valor do Dólar Americano. Esses fatores provavelmente terão um efeito positivo na economia brasileira, uma vez que o Brasil ocupa uma posição diferente dos Estados Unidos em termos de condições econômicas. Além disso, o Brasil implementou várias mudanças no início de 2023, como a decisão dos membros do BRICS de utilizar suas moedas locais para transações oficiais, reduzindo a dependência do Dólar Americano. Considerando a taxa de câmbio atual de cerca de 5 Reais por 1 Dólar, é possível que o preço possa ter um leve aumento como parte da onda (x). No entanto, até o final do ano, espera-se que comece a se mover para baixo, alcançando uma faixa entre 4,5 e 4,2 Reais por 1 Dólar. Esse movimento descendente marcaria a conclusão da onda Z, encerrando o ciclo geral de ondas. É importante observar que desenvolvimentos e notícias futuras moldarão o gráfico futuro para o Real Brasileiro. Eventos econômicos e geopolíticos podem ter impactos significativos nas taxas de câmbio, e esses fatores devem ser monitorados cuidadosamente para avaliar a direção potencial do Real Brasileiro em relação ao Dólar Americano. POR Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre
by Htback
2
The economics of the FIFA World CupIn a few months from now, billions of people will be glued to their TVs for the 2022 FIFA World Cup that is set to take place in Qatar. Every four years, soccer’s global governing body gathers teams from over 30 countries for the world’s biggest sporting event that brings in billions of dollars in revenues and other economic benefits (jobs and tourism) for host nations and for FIFA itself. Economic benefits for host countries For every World Cup, countries put in their bids to host the event as it is widely seen as beneficial for tourism in the long run. Preparing for the event boosts infrastructure and employment in the run up to the World Cup and attracts tourists during and after the event. Countries spend heavily in building stadiums as FIFA has had strict stadium requirements since at least 2001. Stadiums for hosting the opening ceremony should have a capacity of at least 80,000 people, while venues slated for quarter-finals should be able to seat 60,000 attendees. While hosting the World Cup has dubious positive long-term effects on host nations’ tourism and retailing, the impact on employment is undoubtedly transitory as the bulk of job creation is during the construction of stadiums and related infrastructure. Once construction is finished and the World Cup caps off, situations will normalize at host countries and economies will have to wait a couple of years to fully recover the size of their investments in hosting the event. South Africa, which hosted the 2010 World Cup, spent about £3 billion ($4 billion) on venues and infrastructure costs, but only raked in £323 million in revenue due to lower-than-expected tourist arrivals. South Africa and Brazil, which spent about $15 billion on the 2002 World Cup, are among the host nations that were unable to benefit from their investments. The South Africa World Cup is regarded by many as a disaster as it triggered protests by workers and by activists that were against the government’s overspending on the project. Fast forward to 2022, the Qatar World Cup is being met with backlash over how the Gulf state treats its migrant workers. Qatar, albeit small, is one of the world’s richest countries based on its GDP per capita. The oil-exporting country has spent billions on hosting the World Cup that is set to be the first in the Arab world and the second to be entirely set in Asia after the 2002 event in South Korea and Japan. However, Qatar is facing protests following reports that thousands of migrant workers have died since the country started constructing infrastructures for the event about a decade ago. The 2022 World Cup has also been marred with corruption scandals. Qatar and Russia have been accused by the US Department of Justice two years ago of bribing FIFA officials to award hosting rights to their countries for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Impact on the currency of the World Cup champions For champions, economic benefits from winning the World Cup are also short-lived. In a report in 2014, Goldman Sachs said the victor outperforms the global market by 3.5% only in the first month after winning. The momentum fades after three months, the bank’s economists said, stressing that the pattern of outperformance is "fairly consistent over time.” In assessing the World Cup winners between 2002 and 2018, only France registered a slowdown in GDP growth. After winning the 2002 World Cup, Brazil’s GDP jumped 3.1%, faster than the 1.4% expansion in 2001. Italy and Germany also recorded an acceleration in their GDP after their wins in 2006 and 2014, respectively, while Spain’s economy inched up 0.2% in 2010 after contracting 3.8% the previous year. In terms of the victors’ currencies, the Euro — the currency of most European countries —fared better than the US dollar in 2010 when Spain won the World Cup, but lagged against the USD in 2006, 2014 and 2018 when Italy, Germany and France emerged as champions of the World Cup. The favorite to win the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup is Brazil and could lead to a strengthening in the Brazilian real, which has already had an impressive year. The USD started 2022 at approximately 5.6 reals per US dollar and has since strengthened by 20% to 4.7 reals per US dollar. France (the euro) and England (the pound) are considered the next two favorites with football fans. Who is the real winner in World Cup events? If both host nations and champions only receive little to no economic benefits from the World Cup, the clear winner of the international sporting event is undoubtedly the organizer, FIFA, itself. FIFA generates income from the sale of TV, marketing, and licensing rights for football events like the World Cup, while the costs for World Cup events always falls on the host countries. FIFA is expected to rake in $7 billion in revenue from the 2022 World Cup, up from $5.36 billion from the 2018 World Cup and $4.8 billion from the 2014 event.
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | BRL for the Yearly Close📌 BRL for the Yearly Close This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking: The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side. The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like $ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets: A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
5
FX Minors: Current Market Trends & Covid-19 / U.S. ElectionsIn this analysis, we take on the Swiss Franc (CHF) versus the Brazilian Real (BRL) to gauge the prevailing sentiment in the FX markets, in the context of U.S. Presidential Elections uncertainties around the U.S. Dollar (USD), as well as the diminishing in importance of Covid-19 globally & a generalised overextension of major currencies to the upside against FX minors (such as the BRL, HUF, PLN, HRK & so on). A short sell-off in this CHF/BRL pair is particularly significant due to the 'safe-haven' quality of the Swiss Franc in comparison to the rather fragile Brazilian Real, which is interesting when we consider the underlying fundamental factors driving such a move, less influenced by a strengthening in the Real, but rather a global cooldown in the pandemic situation, which favours baby steps towards business as usual, portfolio diversification & a healthy profit-taking / opportunity-seeking in the markets. When we take into account the dramatic moves to the downside across all FX minors, a global recovery from this pandemic does imply some gradual increase in demand for minor currencies such as the Real, which in turn also means the nearing of supply levels for major currencies, as the need for 'safe havens' diminish inasmuch as the generalised fear of abnormal global conditions gives way to a slow return back to normality. Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible. An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
by acsedward