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Expected Key Points ES/SPX 11 May 2022ES/SPX 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.6%/year So that converted into daily is 2.05% The opening of today was 3939 So based on that our channel is going to be compressed within TOP 4020 BOT 3860 with a probability chance of 86.9% based on the last 1049 candles From volume point, current POC is around 3930, so I believe initially the 3.9k will sustain/bounce initially, but if the poc is becoming lower and lower, then we can expect to enter within 3.8k area From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Bitcoin Macro Bottoms Market UpdateCMF: Hit MFI: 3 points from floor RSI: 2 points from floor CCI: Hit Additional updates: S&P Bollinger Bands 1D: Historically leaving these bands meant we were close to the bottom in BTC. S&P RSI 12D: Historically hitting ~44 meant we were very close if not at the bottom (currently 47.25). BTC DVDI 6D: We've started getting red candles on the 4D, so we're getting very close to what has historically been a bottom. I'm watching the 6D DVDI as it seems to capture the absolute bottom candles and nothing above - getting close to crossing. BTC: In order to hit the RSI floor, price would need to reach further down than 2 points initially, but then the 3 week close would be right about 42. That could mean a wick down to 25k. No guarantees we see further downside. DCA into the lows and DCA out the highs.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ungovernable
What if this time isn't different? A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future Chart (W, LOG): Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX, NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com 200MA, 50MA, and 21MA Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross. Financial crisis: Purple box on the left Implied scenario: Purple box on the right. Left edge starts 10/5/2022 ("Today" .. for the next 10 min) Methodology: The scenario is a scaled up copy of the box at 2008-2009. It is stretched to fit the current price, and it's 3 MA's. For simplicity the price / time aspect ratio was preserved. Criteria for 'best fit' (using IEI ) were the absolute level and curvature of the 3 MA's. In other words, the distance between the MA's, their slopes, and the speed each slope was changing. Main Implications: The scenario implies a crash (ripped from Feb 2009) beyond the March, 2020 COVID low, as far as the highs of 2015. This is after the end of QE, when Greece went into default and the Yen was devalued overnight . "Bottom" of the implied crash is one year from today (10/5/2022). Notes: 1. IEI : I eyeballed it 2. Gann would not be happy and the result could be different on a RENKO or equivalent treatment of time (a great follow up idea) 3. The night the Yen was devalued I held positions in gold in bond futures (GC and ZB). I have used stops without exceptions from that day on. best graphics:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gb50k
3
Key points Short BTC 09 May 2022Current expected movement from IV = 3.4% At the same tim we estimate with a 85.7% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 3.67% for this the market will stay within TOP 35300 BOT 32750 All of this being calculated with the opening value candle of today or yesterday close daily candle From the funding rate point of view, the shorts have to pay the funding fee to the long positions, giving us the idea that there are currently more shorts than long in the market( bearish ) From the fundamental point of view we have not big volatility news today With all of this in mind, we can try a scalp entry for today with the next setup stop loss 1: 34000 or the opening price stop loss 2: 35000 expected top for today take profit 1: 33000 take profit 2: 32750 expected bot for today
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by exlux
AUDUSD » New bearish come? Pair Name : AUD/USD Time Frame : 45 minutes T/S : Mid + Long Short Scale Analysis Structure :LL + Fundamental + Moving average + Triangle + Rising Wedge + Support zone + Fibonacci --------------------------------------------------------------- ———————————————– * Technical Current Situation : • If this triangle breaks, then in our opinion, the price will go to the box first to freshen up a bit to close the cell or a new one will rotate up & down here, and then go to the second level (horizontal line) again and follow the same rule. But keep in mind that this box or these two horizontal lines here or somewhere near this price will start to stabilize the fall or the sale will stop completely. And from here (any level) will proceed at a large but steady pace to create a new LH or HH. That is, towards the bullish. ⏩ like and comment - Like and Comment - will further help us to perform better performance.
Short
by ForexAnalysisTeam
JASMY hit rock bottom! Potential long term uptrendIt is not a difficult task to draw a Fib Retracement on the daily chart and explore potential genesis understandings, specially on an asset that has a relatively short history. Jasmy has clearly hit rock bottom, and now we know where we are and where we will never be again: 0.0100 At the current stage, we can consider a potential yet unclear double bottom. Daily chart is definitely bullish although I would suggest caution when trading Jasmy as Bitcoin does have more negative than positive effect on Jasmy trend lines. Best trades are long term for maximum gains. Think quarterly at best. In conclusion, JASMY is a long investment strategy at this point with significant opportunities for scalping.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn35305092
1
AMD: Is it the time to BUY the DIP? Let's see...Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, AMD is in a clear bear trend, but there’s hope it could reverse soon. For the first time since it was trading at $ 125, it is actually breaking the 21 ema, and we do have the beginning of a bullish structure. The black line at $ 98.38 is the most important resistance for us, as if AMD breaks this point, it might trigger a Rounded Bottom chart pattern. By triggering this pattern, the next targets on AMD will be our gaps (yellow squares). The $ 106 seems to be a strong resistance, but the optimal target would be the $ 118 (last gap). In the daily chart, we see that AMD is trading at support levels, and any reaction here would be amazing, as the Risk/Reward ratio always favors the bulls when we are near support levels. What’s more, AMD is far from its 21 ema, so it has some upside potential if it reacts. The only thing that could make AMD turn barish again would be if it loses the $ 92 area, so we must keep our eyes open. We have some possible bullish structures that could justify buying the dip, but to me, we must wait for more confirmation. It is a delicate situation, but if we pay attention to these key points, we’ll be fine. I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
Top and bottom prices with dates for Bitcoin - based on pastThis is my analysis for long term Bitcoin prices. In my opinion Bitcoin is very highly manipulated and the price will be be driven down in 2022 only to be pumped again after the next halving event. At this point Bitcoin is a wealth generating scheme that rewards those who buy low and sell high or just hodl and takes from fools who buy the top during a media driven frenzy. This model is based on time periods and % changes in price of last 2 "cycles" of highs and lows. Did you know that from the lowest price value after the 2013 BTC top, so in January 2015 till the highest price in December 2017 (19k) past 1064 days ? Guess how many days past from bottom of bear market in 2018 till top in 2021. 1064 days. Coincidence?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by polishjake
2